Essential Research: 50-50

Another sedate result on voting intention from Essential Research, which finds more evidence of strong support for a royal commission into the banking sector.

This week’s fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research is once again at 50-50, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 42%, Labor up a point to 36%, and the Greens steady at 11%. Other findings:

• Essential conducted one of its occasional experiments where separate halves of the sample are offered different versions of the same question, in this case relating to a royal commission into the banking and financial services industry. The more straightforward version recorded 59% supportive and 15% opposed. The more elaborate version attributed the notion to Bill Shorten and noted the resistance of Malcolm Turnbull, and got 54% supportive and 21% opposed, with the partisan effect particularly pronounced in the case of Coalition voters.

• From five options on school funding, the most favoured involved a greater involvement for the federal government, with 49% in favour of it becoming the main funder of all schools and 27% opposed.

• Thirty-six per cent said kids these days have more opportunities than back in the day, against 30% for less opportunities and 21% for the same.

• Fifty-six per cent said retirees received too little support, versus 7% for too much and 24% for about right.

• Seventy-six per cent thought it harder for young people to buy a house than for their parents’ generation, and 55% thought it harder for them to find a job. The respective figures for easier were 7% and 17%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,061 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. CTar1,
    [It’s what I look like, unfortunately.]
    ( You could have at least put on a decent shirt.
    You look like you’re about to put a Collingwood beanie on. )

    William looks like he just got discharged from the NAVY! 😉

  2. Back to business: So, most of Turnbull’s party want to walk away from his DD “masterstroke” (TM Canberra Press Gallery) and Malcolm has no choice but to embrace it. And now we’re in caretaker mode.

    [Operating since 2000, the Primary Health Care Research, Evaluation and Development Strategy has the sole aim of providing evidence to support decisions made – by government – about primary health care.

    Under the strategy three crucial organisations were set up to collect and analyse the health and primary care data for millions on Australians: the Australian Primary Health Care Research Institute, the Primary Health Care Research and Information Service and a network of Centres of Research Excellence.

    Despite their critical role in the scrutiny of how Australians’ health is looked after, all of the infrastructure supporting these organisations has, or is, being dismantled. APHCRI was defunded from the end of 2015. We learnt last week that PHCRIS will not be funded beyond June 30, 2016. And, although the Centres of Excellence will be allowed to complete their contracted work, only one of them will still be functioning by mid 2017.]

  4. The Hivemind persists.


    [Turnbull is still the Coalition’s best electoral asset and, on any analysis, he is still likely to win the election.


    The little thing called “Two-Party Preferred” does not seem to have sunk in to Hartcher’s mind.

    After all is said and done, all the personal stuff has been considered, the “who’s twice as popular as who else?” fairy floss has been sorted out, Labor is either level-pegging or slightly ahead of the Coalition in every reputable poll.

    If we had direct elections for PM’s, I’m sure Malcolm would shit it in. But we don’t. Hartcher continues to ignore this. Of all people, Hartcher should know this. That he ignores it shows what an idiot he is.

  5. Would be fascinated to see a breakdown by income or industry for respondents to this “Thirty-six per cent said kids these days have more opportunities than back in the day, against 30% for less opportunities and 21% for the same.”

    Half the country enthralled by shiny new opportunities and the other half watching traditional employment base rust away perhaps

  6. Thus Spake Mungo: Banks are bastards :
    Okay, you may say, that may be the old style leftie view, class warfare, the politics of envy, another time in another place. but we have moved on. But in fact the loathing of the banks as the greedy, uncaring Mr Moneybags prototype of everything and everyone that personifies exploitation and inequality has continued, which is why a very large proportion of the current Australian population is prepared to back Bill Shorten’s call for a royal commission into the bastards.

  7. Airlines
    Tuesday, April 19, 2016 at 3:59 pm:

    Andrew Bartlett is apparently #2 on the Greens Senate ticket in QLD, after Larissa Waters.

    Excellent news, if true. The Greens might actually have a shot at snagged a second seat in QLD now.

  8. More crap from Hartcher:

    “Bill Shorten is likely to lose but he will go into the campaign with vastly better odds than he could have imagined a few short months ago. And, in a two-party system with the polls at 50:50, it is always possible that he could win. Turnbull has managed to descend from being an irresistible leader to being the least worst.”

    Read more:

    I’m sure Bill Shorten could imagine beating Turnbull a few months ago. It was Hartcher (and his ilk) who couldn’t imagine it: dead wood, dead heads.

  9. I’m a bit confused with how pages work in the new format. I can click on “More comments” but will there be pages of comments?

  10. Geez, the Fairfax columnists are wailing and gnashing their teeth.

    Their lover boy Malcolm might get beaten. Even the most hard-bitten among them is being forced to admit that.

    Some of the Man Love (and it’s all men, so far), is pretty disgusting. That he is the natural ruler of Australia is beyond doubt, in their minds. It’s just that he’s so hopeless. Why is he dashing their hopes so comprehensively? They just can’t understand it. There are all kinds of amazing theories.

  11. Well, well, well – what an extraordinary day. MT confirms that we are “probably” off to a 2nd July election, amid rumblings that many in his party aren’t so sure that’s such a good idea. The next week or two are quite dangerous for him, and it’s hard not to think that his main consideration for wanting to go on 2nd July is to head off being rolled by his party room. The government is a mess at the moment, and while I think that if they can get just a few weeks of clean air towards the end of the campaign, they will most likely get re-elected, they do seem to be doing everything they can to lose as things stand at the moment.

    Meanwhile Labor and Shorten sail on reasonably serenely. Turnbull needs to work hard to turn this around, but even if he does manage it, the subsequent term will likely be a disaster of discord and disunity, with no clear policy direction. Really, if a swinging voter is after stability and a sense of purpose from their government, they should be voting Labor.

  12. Wow, underwhelmed with the new layout. Still trying to work out if I am going backwards or forwards.

    I the ‘older comments’ option button is in the middle of the comments area in which I am writing this.

    Further more the lines appear double spaced in the comments section. (So comments section has four lines visible.

    The biggest bug however is I can’t find bluey’s report. Was one posted yesterday?

  13. We have seen your photo now, Bilbo. That is nice. Can you replace it with a picture of your dog, please.

  14. Were Julie Bishop and Christopher Pyne opposed to (or express serious doubts about) the strategy of proroguing parliament and going to a double dissolution but get overruled by the Prime Minister and Attorney General?
    If so, perhaps time has proven them right thus far.
    Is that the reason they’ve shown such poor discipline today, undermining the Prime Minister’s position?

  15. Hugoaugogo
    [Meanwhile Labor and Shorten sail on reasonably serenely.]
    Shorten’s calm and steady approach is working. Let’s hope we don’t have more Conroy madness.

  16. Bluey Bulletin 29 Day 29 and Day 30 of 103

    Everyone has a bank story. Everyone has a finance industry spiv story. Labor is on to a winner here.

    Bluey reckons that Boo and Pistol provided light relief from Cash today. That said, Bluey watched Cash being interviewed this am reckons that she is a star for the Coalition. She sounds like a high tone wharfie. That she is viciously anti-worker and pro Big End of Town does not matter. Class wolf in sheep’s clothing.

    Apart from a bit of the old internecine cack fight over Bronnie’s future, disunity has been papered over, pro tem. The Raving Right, bruised, is losing numbers in the pre-selection. Bluey is not sure whether the Shock Jocks are still gunning for Turnbull and has no intentions of finding out.

    Bluey reckons that what with the forthcoming loss of seats and the pattern of male pre-selections, Lib Fems will be as common as Night Parrots after the election. And less useful.

    Bluey reckons that the Coalition will put down a 12 year budget. Company tax will cut in sometime around 2019. Smokers will subsidise a cut in the debt. Superannuants will get a shave. The ATO and ASIC will get back some money for enforcement. Just enough to make it look like they will do something.

    The long socks held all the advantages in QT – except for Arthur’sGate and BanksGate.

    Bluey reckons that true aficionados of court politics will be enjoying the House of Saud, ATM. The Numero Uno Old Fart Dude is well past it. Two princes are faffing about doing fierce competition to succeed the Old Dude. Some of the outcomes include too much oil being pumped, the Yemen War, and the Saudi threat to do a fire sale on $760,000,000,000 worth of US markers. Bluey has no idea of the possible consequences for Turnbull’s ME investment in killing people.

    Bluey links Turnbull’s incompetence to a smash in the QAN share price. Something about consumers lacking enough confidence to pay for a flight so QANTAS and JETSTAR have had to cut flights.

    Bluey spotted an article by Gottliebson. Gottliebson in Business Spectator – a curious article about with whom Triguboff has been having meetings and why. This included, apparently, the Reserve Bank. (Bluey reckons go on, you have a go at trying to get your own meeting with the Reserve Bank and see how far you get). G notes that the new units market is largely off the plan and financing is largely based on debt which in turn is largely based on bank lending. This works excellently well if unit prices don’t start losing capital value. Which, alas and alack, they have started doing. Bluey guesses that Harry may have been wanting to discuss some of his Liberal Party developer donation investments, the ones we were not supposed to know about (see Arthur’sGate), to try and get something or other considered in relation to some rules or other that would… well, you guys can make up the rest.

    Corals in Sydney Harbour are bleaching for the first time. Bluey reckons fuck that for a joke.

    Army spin has been so good that even some of the SAS uniforms believe it. This may or may not have resulted in kiddy collaterals biting the dust and sundry other bad things. Bluey reckons that if you send people somewhere to kill targets whom you have first dehumanised then sojers like the SAS will do so. Bluey also reckons that the longer they do so, the more various ROE thresholds tend to be lowered in practice. Particularly when it becomes clear that it is all bs anyway. Plus, when soldiers get PTSD they become less predictable and the SAS did rotation after rotation after rotation. Bluey reckons we ought to indict Howard, Rudd, Gillard, Abbott and Turnbull first. Quilty reckons that the latter quintet have been ‘flippant’ in sending the uniforms to Afghanistan.

    Bluey reckons that it was hardly the apotheosis of democratic accountability today. Bluey reckons that Burke and Shorten did some deft footwork with tying Morrison to the banks. They forced the Government to use the guillotine… always a bad look. Dreyfus drew some blood on the Liberals’ developers’ donation shonks. Bluey reckons that the long socks were full of bile, biliousness and bullshit.

    Idiot. Just idiot.

    Bluey notes that Labor needs around 51/49 for evens. The Budget might give the chicken entrails a shake but, apart from a sudden collapse in the apartment market, it is difficult to see the red ties catching up with the blue ties.

    Bluey reckons that Labor needs to do a number on the long sock’s jobs numbers bull shit. The last lot of figures represented a loss of 9,000 real jobs replaced by about 30,000 mostly insecure part-time jobs where the bosses will screw the workers.

    Even Crowe of ‘The Australian’ could find nothing nice to say about Turnbull’s handling of QT yesterday.

    Verdict for the two days: evens
    Cumulative: Labor 21 Liberal 9

  17. Oh thank god, when I refresh the page it goes to the place where I was up to and not to the top of a long list of comments.
    Grumblings about the new format merely confirm Australians are a conservative bunch!

  18. Greg Jennet was good enough to explain that Turnbull’s professed lack of certainty over the date of the election was due to the legal nicety of not being presumptuous when, eventually, he goes to Yarralumla to ask the GG.

    Turnbull’s explanation is as stupid in the same way as Conroy’s outburst. Both Conroy and Turnbull have pretended that the GG is something other than a figurehead. This is a pretence since both have always espoused the Constitutional view that the GG is a puppet of the Government – as represented by whomsoever has the confidence of the HoR.

  19. There is always internal conflict within political groups but generally this is kept mostly out of the public domain. When conflict becomes open warfare, Labor 2010-2013 and now the Coalition in 2015-2016, the end result is that the public tells them to grow up in the most direct way. They get booted out of office.
    Hard to see the Coalition winning in July if the internal warfare continues. I can only hope Shorten ends up a better PM than I believe he will be.

  20. BB

    The trouble is that at this stage 50/50 will not get Labor over the line. Even 51/52% will not do it unless there is a decent swing in NSW. To win in its own right ALP needs another 21 seats or if it can assume support of Bandt and maybe an independent as speaker then you need 74 maybe 19 extra seats.
    I think we can assume that WA is going to be good and bag the ALP three or so seats, but more might be stretching it. 1 in Tas (maybe 2) and 1 in the NT, gives the ALP 5/ 6. Despite Bemused’s optimism I think 3 at most in Victoria – mainly because to get many more Labor needs to be at 54%. So this means ALP has to get another 10-13 seats.
    Now I am NOT counting SA because of the Xenophon factor and slos the really strange polling. Now Qld is looking much, much better for Labor but there are still not an enormous swag of winnable seats. Brisbane, Bonner and Petrie , Longman, Dickson, Herbet, Forde, Dawson, Capricornia are potentials and winning say 6 of them would be good going. This still leaves ALP short 4-7 seats that have to come from NSW.

  21. dtt, 5:04PM

    I think the ALP can snag Banks, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Page, Robertson, Macarthur and maybe Reid, since they’re all under 3.5%. There might be issues with a sophomore surge, however.

  22. Airlines
    The problem is that on the data NSW is not looking so good for Labor. Which is my point really. Labor MUST get a 3.5% swing or better in NSW. I think Banks and roberston are good hopes and probably Lindsay. E-M is such an odd seat that you never know. Page I hope so.

  23. My budget tip is that if you look at the fine print the increased funding the LNP will give to ASIC will actually turn up as a Hockeynomic magic pie bonus to the budget as the increase in fines leads to increased revenue.

    If so, it should be observed constantly that when Abbott proudly proclaimed Australia was open for business, by cutting ASIC funding (and thereby increasing the budget deficit from reduced fines collected), he obviously meant open for business for crooks. High time for a bank RC.

  24. DTT

    You (and the polls) say NSW is not looking great for Labor. I wonder why that is so?

    Any ideas?

    And is NSW just lagging in getting on board with the national 2PP figures?

  25. Good afternoon all

    Election time ahead, perhaps.

    Interesting that Turnbull was at a building site today to talk about very little.
    Do others think that Turnbull was hoping like hell that those radical CFMEU thugs would be out in force and providing some TV footage showing a brave PM standing up against the corrupt unions. All part of the theme.

    He really has grabbed the wrong issue here to justify a early and expensive election me thinks.

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