BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Coalition

The Turnbull government has resumed its downward trajectory in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate after this week’s remarkable result from Newspoll.

After a few weeks where it appeared the trend to Labor had tapered off, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid nudge to Labor this week on the back a Newspoll result crediting it with a 51-49 lead. BludgerTrack doesn’t go quite so far, but it does have the Coalition losing a full point off the primary vote since last week. This translates into a surprisingly mild net gain of one for Labor on the seat projection, with gains in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania being balanced by losses in Queensland and the Northern Territory – the latter being the result of a methodological tweak (I continue to have very limited faith in my Northern Territory projections one way or the other). Newspoll also provided a new set of data for the leadership ratings, which have maintained their existing trajectories – headlong downward in Malcolm Turnbull’s case, and steadily upwards in Bill Shorten’s.

Two further items of polling floating around in the past few days:

• The Australian has a second tranche of results from Newspoll, relating to the Liberal leadership. The poll finds 57% believe the Liberals were right to depose Tony Abbott, down five since October, with still only 31% opposed, up four. A question on preferred Liberal leader found Malcolm Turnbull leading on 35%, Julie Bishop on 22%, Tony Abbott on 14% and Scott Morrison on 8%. This suggests only modest change since an Essential Research poll in mid-March which had Malcolm Turnbull on 39% (down from 42% in December), Julie Bishop (down one) on 13% and Tony Abbott on 9% (steady), along with high “someone else” and “don’t know” components. Roy Morgan got a very different and much stronger result for Turnbull in October, presumably because respondents were asked who they would favour if they were Liberal or Nationals voters.

• A poll conducted by Research Now by the progressive Australia Institute think tank found 63.4% of 1412 respondents felt Tony Abbott should retire, compared with only 26.3% who preferred that he remain.

Much preselection news to report this week, largely thanks to the Western Australian Liberals, who have conducted a number of important preselection ballots, results of which remain to be confirmed by the party’s state council this weekend:

• The Liberal member for the Perth seat of Tangney, Dennis Jensen, suffered a resounding preselection defeat on the weekend at the hands of the party’s former state director, Ben Morton. Morton’s winning margin in the ballot of local party delegates was 57 to seven. This was the third time Jensen had lost a local preselection vote in a parliamentary career going back to 2004, earlier results having been reversed by the intervention of John Howard in 2007 and the party’s state executive in 2010. Jensen concedes he is unlikely to appeal this time, which would surely be futile given the scale of the defeat and the enthusiasm for Morton among the party hierarchy. Jensen has claimed to be a victim of “dirty tricks” from the Morton camp after news reports emerged last week concerning a novel he had written containing a graphic sex scene, which he says was designed to damage his standing in the eyes of religious conservatives. He has also launched defamation proceedings against The Australian over a report on Friday that he had moved out of the family home to live with his girlfriend at a property located outside the electorate.

• A second WA Liberal preselection on the weekend, for the new Perth seat of Burt, was won by Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor and staffer for two state MPs prominent in the southern suburban “Christian Right” – upper house member Nick Goiran and Southern River MP Peter Abetz, who is the brother of Tasmanian Senator Eric Abetz. Storer’s win came at the expense of Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme. Another preselection vote for the Perth electorate was won by employment consultant Jeremy Quinn over a field that included Darryl Moore, the candidate from 2013; Leona Gu, a property developer and real estate agent; and Trudi Lang, who has recently had roles in France and Switzerland with the OECD and World Economic Forum.

• Liberal MP Nola Marino has seen off a preselection challenge in her seat of Forrest, which covers south-western Western Australia. Marino ultimately enjoyed a 51-16 winning margin over Ben Small, a Bunbury businessman who had “worked in commercial shipping and as a property developer”. Small had the support of Marino’s precedessor, Geoff Prosser, and there were suggestions he was serious threat. However, The West Australian also reported this week that the party’s state council would be “under pressure to rescue Mrs Marino” if Small carried the day.

• The ABC reports there are four candidates for the Liberal preselection to replace Sharman Stone in the regional Victorian seat of Murray: Duncan McGauchie, former policy adviser to the then Victorian premier, Ted Baillieu; Emma Bradbury, Campaspe Shire councillor and chief executive of the Murray Darling Association; Camillus O’Kane, an urban planner; and Andrew Bragg, policy director at the Financial Services Council and an unsuccessful candidate in the Victorian Liberals’ recent Senate preselection.

• Ninety-six preselectors will vote in the Liberals’ Mackellar preselection next weekend, drawn equally from local branches and head office. Contentiously, the former contingent includes four of Bronwyn Bishop’s own staff members. Heath Aston of Fairfax hears Bronwyn Bishop and Jason Falinski are approaching 40 votes each, with 10 to 15 backers of Walter Villatora set to decide it for Falinski on the second round.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,635 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Coalition”

Comments Page 28 of 33
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  4. DandM

    Why do people who live in an apartment have a dog like that?

    And why did they leave it locked up in there while they went to the movies?

    Serves ’em right if you ask me.

  5. [1227
    C@tmomma
    So Bernie Sanders doesn’t have the guts to run as a Greens’ candidate for President in the US? Instead he’s prepared to piggyback off the Democrats like a parasite hoping, like an incompetent parasite, to kill his host.    ]

    That’s a very hypocritical statement. Just a few nights ago you were comparing Sanders to Nader, a third party candidate who split the left vote. Make up your mind C@tmomma, is Sanders a parasite on the Democratic Party, or a Nader-esque spoiler?

    The rhetoric from some Clinton supporters is just as hysterical and nonsensical as that coming from some Sanders supporters.

  8. Interesting observation by someone on Twitter

    [Emperor God Goughlam
    1h1 hour ago
    Emperor God Goughlam ‏@leftocentre
    I just watched $hallowMal & then Ghunt speak.
    Liberals are shittin’ bricks over Shorten.
    Their internal polling must be diabolical.
    #auspol]

  10. [1250
    Steelydan
    No the ALP are hoping the Coalition keep kicking own goals right up to the Election, a reasonable budget and the spotlight put on Shorten and the Coalition will win, we can lose this election for sure and lately we have been doing our level best to do it but that wont continue. (I hope)    ]

    wRONg!

    A “decent” budget, that contains no nasty surprises, and which dumps the 2014 budget measures, will only make the election an even battleground. Turnbull has still majorly stuffed up his messaging and his rapport with the voters, not to mention his constant policy back-flips.

    The problem with my above statement is that Turnbull is sticking by every single of the 2014 budget measures. That means Labor will be nailing him to the wall on every single one of them:

    – “Mr Turnbull, why do you want to make young people pay $100,000 for a degree?”
    – “Mr Turnbull, why do you want to make starve people by making them wait 6 months for unemployment benefits?”
    – “Mr Turnbull, why are you trying to make people pay for health services by killing Medicare?”

  11. Yabba88@1345

    [ The ‘P’ in Vincents APC was phenacetin. There was never any scientific basis for its inclusion. Its analgesic effects were negligible. It was added to both Bex and Vincents to distinguish them from Aspro, which was straight aspirin. Caffein, of course, is a stimulant, which raises heart rate and blood pressure, so I suppose they stuck that in to ‘make people feel better’. ]

    My memory of the C in APC (eg Vincents APC) is aspirin, phenacitin and codeine .

    My wife remembers the same.

    Yet when I looked it up, every source says that the C was for caffeine.

    Any PBers out there with long memories of Vincents APC radio advertisements? As a young kid, I wouldn’t have known what codeine (or caffeine) was, yet that is the jingle or sign off for the ad that plays in my head every time. I am from QLD, my wife is from NSW.

  12. looks like both were used at various times or locations within Australia:

    http://samhs.org.au/Virtual%20Museum/Medicine/Australian_analglesia/Australian_analglesia.html

    [ Phenacetin was introduced in 1887 as an analgesic and antipyretic. Australia developed its own pain killers such as BEX, Vincent’s APC and Veganin. They contained a mixture of aspirin phenacetin and caffeine or codeine and were popular. The side effects of phenacetin leading to interstitial nephritis and papillary necrosis resulting in renal failure, first reported in 1970 and phenacetin was removed from the pain preparations. Paracetamol which was known in the early 1900s as acetaminophen has become more popular ]

  19. [1276
    Colton
    Why would members of the Democrat party vote for an interloper who has conceded he is pretty much using the party he only joined last year to satisfy his massive ego trip…

    Truly a parasite who will soon be confined to the dust bin of history as another failed presidential candidate.]

    Why don’t you criticise his policies instead of making blatant personal attacks on his character?

    1300
    Colton
    Clinton on the other hand has 40 years working, advocating and supporting the Democrat party so she isn’t a parasite.

    Obama was only a Senator for three years before becoming President so by your exacting standards he must have been a parasite too.

  20. [victoria
    Posted Saturday, April 9, 2016 at 1:54 pm | PERMALINK
    Bridget O’Flynn retweeted
    mark kenny
    4h4 hours ago
    mark kenny ‏@markgkenny
    Interesting. Word is there are plenty more in the coalition who think banks are worth a look @SenatorWacka https://twitter.com/gchristensenmp/status/718580058802106368 …]

    We’re now getting some pretty strange alliances if Christensen supports an inquiry into the banks. Barnaby cannot be far behind as very few of his constituents would have reason to love the banks and the financial industry generally.

    Perhaps even Abbott is talking to country folk along his Pollie Pedal ride and learning what the think of the banks. I imagine very few small business people and farmers would have much love for the banks. This might be one”populist” issue to push in his parallel election campaign.

  21. I was a little annoyed to read the opinions of the reformed drug abuser in the article posted about prescription drug abuse.

    She wants Valium banned even though she admits to abusing both legal and illegal drugs in the past.

    So those who have valid medical reasons for using a drug and are capable of controlling their use with the guidance of doctors should be disallowed it.

  22. [ The Coalition need to start pointing out the travesty that the was ALP’s immigration policy under Bowen as well, ]

    Oh Steamy, the boiler really has cracked up big time hasn’t it?

    The best you can come up with is “look over there”….”look at what we want you too not whats actually happening now”…..look over there and a few years ago”…….please,,,,please let us win even though we have nothing offer..

    Keep believing. Maybe the electorate will have another attack of the stupids ike when they elected Abbot?? Its your only hope steamy-wan….. 🙂

  23. I do agree that we have to see what they come out with in the budget. Not expecting a game changer for them but it will definitely shift the debate somewhat so no room for hubris.

    The question is will it shift the debate towards how crap the government is because if it does Labor have the perfect opportunity to pledge repeal of every little thing the public don’t like.

    I honestly don’t know much about policy at that level but it’s hard to imagine anything short of a miracle or a black swan shifting this steady trend

  27. State MP John McVeigh has seen off Christian conservative David van Gend in the LNP preselection for Groom, and the WA Liberals’ state council has signed off on last week’s federal preselections, including that of Ben Morton in Tangney – though apparently not yet that of Liz Storer in Burt.

  29. PM warns budget won’t be a ‘fist full of dollars’

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has warned the upcoming federal budget will not be about a “fist full of dollars” but rather focused on prudence.

    Meanwhile, the federal government has dismissed the idea of extending its royal commission crackdown on unions to the scandal-plagued big banks, as Labor considers the idea and economists urge action.

    Economists urge action

    Industry Super Australia chief economist Dr Stephen Anthony told The New Daily the banking sector is one more scandal away from impacting business confidence and hampering economic activity at “exactly the wrong time in the business cycle”.

    Dr Anthony said the banks’ business model and practices were not aligned with community expectations of fair and ethical conduct, and that it was now time for the government to “send the appropriate signal to the sector so that this can never occur again”.

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/04/09/turnbull-warns-budget-wont-fist-full-dollars/

  30. rummel

    Did ‘stop the boats’ work for you on the basis that it was a reminder that equipment should only be driven into water if the situation was dire?

  31. Shiftaling@371,

    [I was a little annoyed to read the opinions of the reformed drug abuser in the article posted about prescription drug abuse.

    She wants Valium banned even though she admits to abusing both legal and illegal drugs in the past.

    So those who have valid medical reasons for using a drug and are capable of controlling their use with the guidance of doctors should be disallowed it.]

    Actually, this also annoyed me. I almost did not post it, but liked the bit at the beginning. Even that turned out to be wrong!

  32. shiftaling @1373

    We shouldn’t be lulled into thinking all will be ‘bad’ in the Budget. That is clearly the coalition’s strategy.

    Come Budget time, we may find some of the ‘unpopular’ policies of Abbott abandoned, and the public left with the perception that the Budget is not that bad after all.

    Don’t believe anything Turnbull and Morrison say pre-Budget. It’s clearly a politically strategic game they’re playing.

    It’s all about playing with people’s expectations, not to mention their emotions.

    FFS they’re crook.

  33. Clinton’s team have stated that they will not debate Sanders because of his tone towards Hillary. Whilst I believe that she is well qualified to do the job of President, this type of childish attitude leaves much to be desired of her and her team. She should be able to debate him and dispel all the allegation that Bernie makes about fossil fuel and big end of the corporate ladder. However, I think what Bernie is saying about these matters are true and President Hillary Clinton will have to pay back big time to her backers. Its always like this, – that is why both mad Trump and Sanders have surprised so many commentators.

  35. [ I do agree that we have to see what they come out with in the budget. Not expecting a game changer for them but it will definitely shift the debate somewhat so no room for hubris. ]

    Agree mostly. The Budget and Shortens reply are the most significant events pre-election.

    The Libs are in an interesting position. They have tried the “Big Bang” stuff over the last few weeks and simply failed.

    ALP has dropped a couple of big ones (Neg Gear /CGT/ Financial RC) and had them detonate quite nicely thankyou. 🙂

    So, ALP have been setting the agenda while the Libs are constrained by not having anything to announce that anyone cares about that isn’t part of the Budget. with sooo uch ruled out what people are interested in is just what the fwark is still in there?

    And, if they do a benign budget…..well,,,they will have actually proven that they have completely wasted the whole term in the context of “budget repair” and pissed people off along the way.

    The Budget is really their last chance to make any kind of impression on the electorate as to their fitness to govern.

    Really, they have screwed up so much this year that they now NEED a few Big Bang things in the budget that are well received to turn perceptions around. If Turnbull has no “cunning plan” for that then their best hope is to abandon the DD plans, go long, and hope Shorten screws up.

  36. [Clinton’s team have stated that they will not debate Sanders because of his tone towards Hillary. Whilst I believe that she is well qualified to do the job of President, this type of childish attitude leaves much to be desired of her and her team. She should be able to debate him and dispel all the allegation that Bernie makes about fossil fuel and big end of the corporate ladder. However, I think what Bernie is saying about these matters are true and President Hillary Clinton will have to pay back big time to her backers. Its always like this, – that is why both mad Trump and Sanders have surprised so many commentators.]

    They will not debate him because it would give him credibility something he doesn’t deserve.

  39. [ Industry Super Australia chief economist Dr Stephen Anthony told The New Daily the banking sector is one more scandal away from impacting business confidence and hampering economic activity at “exactly the wrong time in the business cycle”. ]

    Hmmmmmm…there is a quite powerful theme regarding the Financial Sector RC. Saving the economy from the Banks screwing up confidence…..

    Libs are screwing up by not at least considering making the RC a bipartisan thing. Yup, it would be obvious they had been herded into it by the ALP….but that would matter less that being associated with something popular that they could them claim to have made sure will happen regardless of any election outcome.

    AND, the best they could do for their donors is to be in a position to influence the Terms of Reference.

  42. [“The Australian Bankers’ Association says an inquiry would have international ramifications and would be a waste of money.

    ‘Banks are particularly concerned that a call for a royal commission will send alarm signals to international investors about Australia at a time of global volatility,’ ABA chief executive Steven Munchenberg said.”]

    Of course recall recall how concerned the banks were at the money wasted on the Batts Royal Commission, the Trade Union witch hunt, throwing $160 million down the toilet on a unnecessary plebiscite on same sex marriage and especially wasting billions on Direct Inaction, a plan that doesn’t work to fix a problem that most most bankers, as coalition supporters, probably believe isn’t worth bothering about.

    Did the interviwer ask Mr Munchenberg how an inquiry would be so alarming? Won’t it just reveal that everything’s OK? Wouldn’t that increase international confidence? After all, Liberal allies always told us the Union Royal Commission was for their own good.

    – See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/04/09/bank-inquiry-would-undermine-financial-sector.html#sthash.unlIB75r.dpuf

  43. Let’s wait and see what they do with the budget? What for? They have done nothing to suggest that the budget won’t be another debacle just like everything else they’ve attempted thus far. As an earlier poster mentioned, it’s not as they a “safe pair of hands” budget will do the job either, it needs to be a blinder. This mob have got no chance without divine intervention (Tampa, 9/11, etc).

    In regards to the banking RC:
    I heard mentioned last night that it would cost about $50M. That may seem like a lot to you and me but it’s peanuts in the grand scheme of things. Using “a waste of money” excuse as justification no to have one is a ridiculous argument. Isn’t the SSM plebiscite supposed to cost $120M? The fact that so much noise is being made to discourage one suggests that a RC is exactly what is needed.

  46. [ “If jobs growth in western Sydney continues at the pace of the last 10 years – and I use the word “pace” sarcastically – if we stay at the current pace then the distances needing to be travelled to get to work will strangle Sydney by crushing the capacity of its roads and its public transport.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/why-the-number-of-jobs-in-western-sydney-should-concern-all-sydneysiders-20160407-go1dro.html#ixzz45Ii9XlT7 ]

    Such a pity they gutted the NBN. It surely would have been one of the greatest decentralizers of employment, breathing a lot of life back into the outer suburbs and the regions.

    Unfortunately, not innovative or agile enough, I suspect.

  47. don @ 1361,

    [ Any PBers out there with long memories of Vincents APC radio advertisements? As a young kid, I wouldn’t have known what codeine (or caffeine) was, yet that is the jingle or sign off for the ad that plays in my head every time. I am from QLD, my wife is from NSW.]

    From memory, as a young Pharmacist, I believe the first iteration of APCs contained caffeine, so, as anyone ‘addicted’ to their morning cup of joe knows, you don’t feel quite right until you have had your morning fix. Despite all it’s benefits caffeine still remains one of the most addictive psychoactive chemicals that humans imbibe, albeit down the scale from amphetamines and opiates.

    Therefore, it was discovered that a lot of people were constantly increasing the numbers of powders they had just to get the same effect as previously and as aspirin and phenacetin weren’t addictive it was decided to replace the caffeine.

    So they replaced ‘C’ for caffeine with ‘C’ for codeine. Though as an opiate codeine wasn’t that much better.

    Eventually I think they also discovered that the nephrotoxic effects of aspirin were being synergised by the phenacetin and so APCs were binned (which the drug companies didn’t like because they returned a tidy profit 😀 ) and paracetamol was developed to take the place of phenacetin, as they are congeners but paracetamol is a lot safer, UNLESS you exceed the maximum daily dosage of 8x500mg, then it can become quite a bit of a problem for your liver to process.

    Hope this answers your question. 🙂

  48. [1396
    Bushfire Bill
    Such a pity they gutted the NBN. It surely would have been one of the greatest decentralizers of employment, breathing a lot of life back into the outer suburbs and the regions.    ]

    Yep. Given his wanton destruction of the NBN, I cannot believe Turnbull had the gall to say this:

    “We can not allow Shorten, Labor and their union backers to stand in the way of advancing this nation’s long-term and economic future,” he said.

    “In this election year, there is only one central issue – whether we complete our transition to the new economy, or whether we allow Labor to kill off that issue … Who do the people trust to steer the course to a secure, prosperous and exciting future?”

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/unions-threaten-the-nations-economic-future-says-malcolm-turnbull-20160409-go2e33.html

  49. Douglas and Milko @ 1391,

    Ouch. I had no idea aspiring was addictive!

    It sure is. Ask your neighbours, who are trying to keep up with the Jones down the street! 😉

  50. Yep. Yep… Turnbull on Agility…

    [In this election year, there is only one central issue – whether we complete our transition to the new economy, or whether we allow Labor to kill off that issue … ” ]

    “The New Economy”… sounds like a buzzword.

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