BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Coalition

The Turnbull government has resumed its downward trajectory in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate after this week’s remarkable result from Newspoll.

After a few weeks where it appeared the trend to Labor had tapered off, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid nudge to Labor this week on the back a Newspoll result crediting it with a 51-49 lead. BludgerTrack doesn’t go quite so far, but it does have the Coalition losing a full point off the primary vote since last week. This translates into a surprisingly mild net gain of one for Labor on the seat projection, with gains in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania being balanced by losses in Queensland and the Northern Territory – the latter being the result of a methodological tweak (I continue to have very limited faith in my Northern Territory projections one way or the other). Newspoll also provided a new set of data for the leadership ratings, which have maintained their existing trajectories – headlong downward in Malcolm Turnbull’s case, and steadily upwards in Bill Shorten’s.

Two further items of polling floating around in the past few days:

• The Australian has a second tranche of results from Newspoll, relating to the Liberal leadership. The poll finds 57% believe the Liberals were right to depose Tony Abbott, down five since October, with still only 31% opposed, up four. A question on preferred Liberal leader found Malcolm Turnbull leading on 35%, Julie Bishop on 22%, Tony Abbott on 14% and Scott Morrison on 8%. This suggests only modest change since an Essential Research poll in mid-March which had Malcolm Turnbull on 39% (down from 42% in December), Julie Bishop (down one) on 13% and Tony Abbott on 9% (steady), along with high “someone else” and “don’t know” components. Roy Morgan got a very different and much stronger result for Turnbull in October, presumably because respondents were asked who they would favour if they were Liberal or Nationals voters.

• A poll conducted by Research Now by the progressive Australia Institute think tank found 63.4% of 1412 respondents felt Tony Abbott should retire, compared with only 26.3% who preferred that he remain.

Much preselection news to report this week, largely thanks to the Western Australian Liberals, who have conducted a number of important preselection ballots, results of which remain to be confirmed by the party’s state council this weekend:

• The Liberal member for the Perth seat of Tangney, Dennis Jensen, suffered a resounding preselection defeat on the weekend at the hands of the party’s former state director, Ben Morton. Morton’s winning margin in the ballot of local party delegates was 57 to seven. This was the third time Jensen had lost a local preselection vote in a parliamentary career going back to 2004, earlier results having been reversed by the intervention of John Howard in 2007 and the party’s state executive in 2010. Jensen concedes he is unlikely to appeal this time, which would surely be futile given the scale of the defeat and the enthusiasm for Morton among the party hierarchy. Jensen has claimed to be a victim of “dirty tricks” from the Morton camp after news reports emerged last week concerning a novel he had written containing a graphic sex scene, which he says was designed to damage his standing in the eyes of religious conservatives. He has also launched defamation proceedings against The Australian over a report on Friday that he had moved out of the family home to live with his girlfriend at a property located outside the electorate.

• A second WA Liberal preselection on the weekend, for the new Perth seat of Burt, was won by Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor and staffer for two state MPs prominent in the southern suburban “Christian Right” – upper house member Nick Goiran and Southern River MP Peter Abetz, who is the brother of Tasmanian Senator Eric Abetz. Storer’s win came at the expense of Matt O’Sullivan, who runs mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous employment scheme. Another preselection vote for the Perth electorate was won by employment consultant Jeremy Quinn over a field that included Darryl Moore, the candidate from 2013; Leona Gu, a property developer and real estate agent; and Trudi Lang, who has recently had roles in France and Switzerland with the OECD and World Economic Forum.

• Liberal MP Nola Marino has seen off a preselection challenge in her seat of Forrest, which covers south-western Western Australia. Marino ultimately enjoyed a 51-16 winning margin over Ben Small, a Bunbury businessman who had “worked in commercial shipping and as a property developer”. Small had the support of Marino’s precedessor, Geoff Prosser, and there were suggestions he was serious threat. However, The West Australian also reported this week that the party’s state council would be “under pressure to rescue Mrs Marino” if Small carried the day.

• The ABC reports there are four candidates for the Liberal preselection to replace Sharman Stone in the regional Victorian seat of Murray: Duncan McGauchie, former policy adviser to the then Victorian premier, Ted Baillieu; Emma Bradbury, Campaspe Shire councillor and chief executive of the Murray Darling Association; Camillus O’Kane, an urban planner; and Andrew Bragg, policy director at the Financial Services Council and an unsuccessful candidate in the Victorian Liberals’ recent Senate preselection.

• Ninety-six preselectors will vote in the Liberals’ Mackellar preselection next weekend, drawn equally from local branches and head office. Contentiously, the former contingent includes four of Bronwyn Bishop’s own staff members. Heath Aston of Fairfax hears Bronwyn Bishop and Jason Falinski are approaching 40 votes each, with 10 to 15 backers of Walter Villatora set to decide it for Falinski on the second round.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,635 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Coalition”

Comments Page 27 of 33
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  2. Abbott’s policy to “stop the boats” has had one external benefit. It’s also turned out to be a policy to “stop the Greens”.

    Their soapbox has been taken away. They’re now going through the discards trying to find another one. No luck. Only side deals with the Liberals to be found. Well, that will not get them far when the electorate vote to change the Government – something they are now in the process of deciding they will do.

  5. Shiftaling, I think there’s a link to Shorten’s forum back in some of the early pages (look for a few hours after 8pm on Thrsday night/fri morning

  7. MTBW @ 1299

    Oh, how very mature.

    It would appear you are the one in need of a rest.
    You jumped onto a comment not directed to you and resorted to asking me snidely if I was from the right?

    You still have not answered my question about which political party you belong to?

    Grow up.

  9. Nicholas @ 1274

    BS.
    I can not be bothered looking back for the post you made but I clearly remember you started it by saying wtte A former Clinton administration member has backed Sanders economic plan.

    I remember it well because I immediately pulled you up on it as being factually wrong.

    Not surprising that you can not admit you were wrong.

    Now you trickily try to imply I was mistaken.

    Very poor form Nicholas. I expect better even from you.

  10. [Sky News Australia
    22m22 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Budget expectation management begins in earnest. Turnbull says there will be no “fistful of dollars” – just prudence. Live now (@ash_gillon)]

  11. The ALP still need to still bring in turning back the boats which they will before the election. It will hurt but they will have to do it. Not worried about the Greens they don’t take our votes they only become an issue if they get the balance of power in the Senate. I never thought I would say this but I miss the Democrats, maybe Xenothon can get the balance at least he looks at each policy on its merits as far as I can see.

  12. Steelydan

    You do realise it was, to the shame of Labor, who reopened those hell holes in Nauru and Manus Island. On asylum seeker policy, Libs/Labs on same page. Whilst the pathetic Greens continue to play all care and no responsibility. Easy place to be

  14. ratsak still feel the same, still confident but not as much as I was back then I have banged my head up against the wall quite a bit of late.

  16. [The greater the expectation the greater the disappointment.]

    Bingo. If Turnbull had been travelling well a steady as she goes budget would have just made a bird of the election win.

    But Turnbull isn’t travelling well and truthfully hasn’t been since he squibbed standing up to Right and the Nats on SSM and Carbon to get the job. The frustrations have been building up for some time but only really in the last two weeks have they overflowed into near universal bewilderment in the press.

    Those still trying to spin it for Turnbull are banking on a budget miracle. The government’s trajectory is all downhill following Turnbull’s personal sats. Steady as she goes isn’t going to cut it. They need something big to get people forgetting the last six months of dithering and ideas going Boom!

    Budget Miracles don’t happen. If ScoMo came out on May 3 and announced that increased revenues had miraculously turned around and this years expected deficit had turned into a surplus so it’s tax cuts for everyone – well that would do the trick nicely. But he isn’t. The ‘budget repair’ will be put off til the never never and any improvement will be driven by cuts to popular services and bracket creep. Even if they abandon the stupid (company tax cuts – hello?) and just put up something that would be perfectly acceptable as a second budget of a term it will hurt them simply because of the unachievable expectations built up about how it will turn around the drift and failure of the government.

    As has been noted many times, PM netsats are a very strong leading indicator of 2PP. Turnbull’s natsats haven’t stopped falling and so the Coalition’s 2PP still has someway to fall. Even if he can miraculously pull out of the tailspin and level off the 2PP drop will lag but still happen.

    Because Turnbull came with unrealistic expectations those who have been turned off will stay turned off. He has no proven record of success, nor the budget position to bribe his way back that Howard did. Conversely Shorten in coming from a low base, so even if he was simply competent his netsats would improve as more focus was put on him. He’s been better than merely competent and the media has noticed and publicised it. LOTO netsat is not a significant indicator of 2PP but a derided LOTO will keep even a moderately unpopular PM in a job. Shorten is far from derided now and being seen as a legitmate threat who has been policy ‘brave’ in opposition. The Libs delusion that Shorten is unelectable is far more wrong than Labor’s same feeling about Abbott.

  18. My point was more to do with Bowen who as a Minister was a failure and he may very well be our next treasurer and there is a lot of information out there showing how and where he repeatedly failed.

  19. @1318 – exactly how good a job did our our current and immediate past Treasurer do? At least Bowen is an economist and is part of Shorten’s inner-circle.

  21. [My point was more to do with Bowen who as a Minister was a failure ]

    If you fail Bowen as a Minister how many passes do you give out to Lib ministers since Howard won. I’m not thinking there’d be any passes at all? Lot of ‘worst ever’ awards, no passes. If you were to be consistent and even handed.

  22. [No the ALP are hoping the Coalition keep kicking own goals right up to the Election, a reasonable budget and the spotlight put on Shorten and the Coalition will win, we can lose this election for sure and lately we have been doing our level best to do it but that wont continue. (I hope)]

    A classic case of hope over experience. Any day now they’re going to get their act together eh Steely? Any day now.

    Every clusterfuck just brings them that much closer to getting their shit together eh? The Gambler’s fallacy in action. They won’t because they can’t. Every clusterfuck really just makes them double down on the stupid and brings them closer to losing everything. They need a clean out and new leadership and unity of purpose that like Labor will only come after an embarrassing defeat.

    They’ll get that opportunity soon enough, but with the RWNJs still able to veto anything sensible they won’t take it for a long time to come.

  23. steelydan,

    Morrison was a “successful” Immigration Minister and is a failure at Treasurer.

    Therefore Bowen, who you claim was a failure as Immigration Minister will be a successful Treasurer.

    That is your argument, isn’t it?

  24. It’s hard to see how they will put a decent budget together given how they’ve been busing closing off all their options (Turnbull’s cunning plans have served to do much the same) while locking themselves into an ever narrowing path.

    Maybe this is just part of another cunning plan. Lower expectations and make themselves look so bad that the budget will seem wonderful by comparison.

  29. I can not be bothered looking back for the post you made but I clearly remember you started it by saying wtte A former Clinton administration member has backed Sanders economic plan.

    You remembered wrong.

  30. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/federal-election-2016-alp-threat-to-preference-nationals-as-payback/news-story/2eede1d042f40597701ec3d19918c6d3

    [The ALP has seized on its likely kingmaker role in the Liberal-­Nationals contest for the federal seat of Murray, threatening to preference the Nationals unless the Liberal Party drops its threat to preference the Greens in the Labor-held federal seats of Wills and Batman.

    Labor confirmed it would link the contest for Murray, where it polled 20 per cent of the vote in 2013, with the proposed Liberal-Greens preference swap being pushed by Victorian Liberal pres­ident Michael Kroger.]

  33. [Morrison was a “successful” Immigration Minister and is a failure at Treasurer.]

    only because he could hide his decisions (sic) behind the oft repeated “on water operations” secrecy

  37. As you can tell I am supposed to be working.

    So here is something from Bruce Sprinsteen, who has just cancelled his show in Greensboro, North Carolina:
    https://www.facebook.com/billybraggofficial/photos/a.249499147470.158205.44905697470/10153337506232471/?type=3&theater

    From Bruce Springsteen, as quoted by Billy Bragg”
    “”Some things are more important than a rock gig and this LGBT fight is one of them”. This is why we call Springsteen ‘The Boss.’

  38. A cuppa, a Bex and a good lie down – it was a marketing phrase, catchy but deadly:

    The silent generation – those who came before the baby boomers – were a stoic bunch who resisted taking drugs to treat even the worst ailments. Migraines, muscle pain and insomnia were treated through a cup of tea, a warm bath, a lie down or fresh air.

    But with the 1960s, a new, medical element was added to that mix when a marketing phrase entered the vernacular: ”Have a cup of tea, a Bex and a good lie down.”

    Bex, the analgesic made up of aspirin, phenacetin and caffeine, became an Australian icon. It was recommended to treat headaches, colds, flu, fevers, rheumatism, nerve pain and for ”calming down”.

    Dissolving some Bex powder in a cup of tea became particularly common among housewives, widely available and sometimes taken up to three times a day.

    It wasn’t until the 1970s that clinicians realised Bex and other similar formulations were responsible for kidney disease and addiction, and was carcinogenic. Phenacetin was pulled from the market by 1983.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/bitter-pills-a-quick-fix-and-a-long-road-to-recovery-20130316-2g7mw.html#ixzz45IKg2qus
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  39. victoria@1326

    [James Massola ‏@jamesmassola
    A third Coalition MP backs calls for a banking royal commission. https://twitter.com/GChristensenMP

    Turnbull might be tempted to get a Financial Services RC up and running before the election – that way he could set the terms of reference as well as a Commissioner of his choice.

    But it would require yet another backflip – would embarrass morrison again who has gone in hard against the need for such a RC.

    But hey – situation normal and Déjà.

    But it would be seen through anyway.

  42. [In the 1970s, AN as a cause of end-stage renal disease reached its peak in Australia, with the condition being responsible for an estimated 20% of patients requiring renal replacement therapy.12 As a response to this, phenacetin was removed from Vincents® and Bex® (the most frequently used analgesic products) in 1967 and 1975, respectively.13 In 1977, phenacetin was legally banned from all medical preparations in Australia, and all over-the-counter combination analgesic products were banned in 1979.]

    DandM, not sure the SMH is correct, got this from Uni of Canberra paper
    https://www.dovepress.com/paracetamol-and-analgesic-nephropathy-are-you-kidneying-me-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-IMCRJ#

  43. Did she have kidney problems jenauthor?

    I think my grandmother (who was a great fan of the Bex for arthritis) did develop kidney problems, although whether anyone was sure of the cause in the late 60s I do not know.

  44. I agree it wouldn’t be a surprise if Turnbull decided to do a banking RC, however apart from the CPG who would be impressed, now 3? days after his after his westpac speech he wouldn’t get any credit.
    However I think a bank RC would be a bridge too far for the Libs. They need donations between now and July 2.

  45. The ‘P’ in Vincents APC was phenacetin. There was never any scientific basis for its inclusion. Its analgesic effects were negligible. It was added to both Bex and Vincents to distinguish them from Aspro, which was straight aspirin. Caffein, of course, is a stimulant, which raises heart rate and blood pressure, so I suppose they stuck that in to ‘make people feel better’.

  46. Re. Sanders running as the Democratic Nominee

    FWIW, I have some respect for Bernie Sander’s views and positions, and I can understand him running for a Major Party Ticket in order to further those goals.

    However, he lost a lot of my respect last Thursday when he said that Hillary Clinton wasn’t qualified to be President.

    Considering that Hillary certainly is qualified (she’s over 35, she’s a natural-born citizen, she’s lived in the US for over 14 years and she hasn’t been elected to the Presidency twice), and considering that, in general, politicians that are women are judged to a different standard to men who are politicians; Bernie’s remarks that she isn’t ‘qualified’ just smacks a little bit of a subtle form of sexism, although I imagine that wasn’t Sanders’ intention.

    He has since backed away from those comments, but still, it was a stupid thing to say.

  47. VP, thanks. It looks as though it is “compound analgesics” that cause analgesic nepthropathy (AN):

    However, the role of a single analgesic as a sole cause of AN was challenged, leading to the redefinition of AN in 1996 as “a disease resulting from the frequent use of combinations of analgesic medications over many years, usually codeine or caffeine”.

    Wow! I know that some migraine(?) medication used both those. Hopefully the caffeine has been withdrawn from these now.

  48. Re. Springsteen, I guess born in the USA and other songs will be off the Republican campaign play list.
    The boss won’t be unhappy.

  49. Poll Bludger has a great brains trust! One of the things I am doing today is writing a review of some science. Perhaps I should run it by here first 🙂

  50. [Re. Springsteen, I guess born in the USA and other songs will be off the Republican campaign play list.
    The boss won’t be unhappy.]

    😀

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