Probably not much doing in the land of polling over Easter, but The Australian as always takes advantage of the situation to unload Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates, providing breakdowns of the combined polling so far this year by state, gender and metro/regional. The results strongly suggest the Coalition’s recent downward movement has been driven by Victoria.
Also of note:
• The Australian has results from a privately commissioned poll by MediaReach which suggests Bronwyn Bishop would suffer a heavy defeat if Dick Smith ran against her as an independent in Mackellar, as he says he will do if she again wins Liberal preselection. The poll of 877 respondents showed Smith on 54% of the primary vote, compared with just 21% for Bishop. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said Bishop should retire, and she recorded a net favourability of minus 30% compared with plus 59% for Smith. A report in the Daily Telegraph this week said support for Bishop was rapidly waning ahead of the preselection vote on April 16.
• A poll conducted for Sky News by Omnipoll, a new venture involving former Newspoll director Martin O’Shannessy, suggests the federal government will have a difficult sell with its mooted company tax cut. Out of four budgetary options offered, this one was most favoured by 3% of respondents, compared with 46% for fixing the bottom line, 27% for spending more on education, and 25% for personal income tax cuts. Respondents also faced a forced choice question on whether Malcolm Turnbull had lived up to expectations and Prime Minister, which broke 62-38 against. A table at the Sydney Morning Herald features breakdowns by age and, interestingly and unusually, income. The results suggest the most indulgent view of Turnbull’s performance is taken by the young and the wealthy.
• An intra-Coalition stoush looms in the rural Victorian seat of Murray, following Sharman Stone’s retirement announcement on Saturday. Stone gained the seat for the Liberals upon the retirement of Nationals member Bruce Lloyd in 1996. Rebecca Urban of The Australian reports candidates for Liberal preselection will include Duncan McGauchie, “a Melbourne-based communications specialist and former policy adviser to previous Victorian premier Ted Baillieu”.
Mark Kenny
[… his solution, which was outlined in Tony Abbott’s now benched Federation White Paper process, faces stiff opposition in practice, with premiers condemning the proposal as a “bugger’s muddle” and a “thought bubble”.
Smaller states expect to be further disadvantaged and others worry it would lead to a higher overall tax burden, foster unhelpful state-to-state confusion and increase the political pain of cutting unaffordable services.
While outwardly wanting to appear constructive, premiers are deeply sceptical about the idea, regarding its future implementation as highly problematic, and viewing its emergence onto the COAG agenda now as a deliberate pre-election distraction by the federal government designed to “throw a bone to the states” to keep them quiet.
One leader described it as “scrabbling about in the desperate search for an agenda”.
But Mr Turnbull is determined to push ahead.
…State leaders expressed strong misgivings, with Victoria’s Labor Premier Daniel Andrews, who had just spoken to the Prime Minister by phone, dismissing it.
“The focus of Friday’s COAG is to address the $80 billion of Malcolm Turnbull’s cuts to health and education,” Mr Andrews said.
“As far as Victoria is concerned, Friday will not be about tax policy thought bubbles.”]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbulls-tax-revolution-hand-income-taxing-powers-to-states-20160330-gnu2f0.html
[I do hope when labor get to power that Coalition voters actually wait and have a look at a policy before deciding it is crap just because its a labor policy.]
Steely, they never have in the past. And there never was a worst example that when your mob were in opposition. Opposing and then repealing the Carbon price was purely economic bastardry of the highest order. And that is without taking into account the environmental vandalism.
Frankly, I don’t see value in this proposal. As Ian Verrender has pointed out on the Drum, the problem is any political party willing to tell people the facts – that good services cost money, instead of peddling political bullshit – that all you have to do is eliminate waste and you could have a Rolls Royce service sector run on the smell of an oily rag.
Steelydan,
It is hard to actually pin point a failed policy per se because all we have seen is an endless stream of thought bubbles and brain farts that have usually failed to last longer than his next bowel movement.
You do not get credit for doing absolutely nothing.
The man is an economic cretin who is totally unfit and unprepared for the role of Treasurer and anyone who speaks out in his defense will be shown to be nothing but a sycophantic apologist for the LNP.
Hence your comment.
If they were serious about having spending matched with revenue raising, wouldn’t it make much more sense to take health and education away from the states and controlled federally instead?
We don’t need to wait to point out that the Coalition are contradicting themselves yet again.
Peter Martin
I thought he was sensible, but now…
[Initially the states would be limited to merely replacing what the Commonwealth took away, but after that they could charge more. In Turnbull’s words, they would be “accountable to their own voters”.
It would cut both ways. Any state that wanted to offer a Rolls-Royce hospital service would be able to do so, as long as it charged for it through tax. Any state that wanted to keep its taxes low would be able to do that, so long as it offered fewer grand services.
Voters would be able to choose, or in extreme cases move. Queensland (to use a hypothetical example) might want to position itself as the low tax state. Anyone who moved there, attracted by the low tax, would know they were also taking chances with their health. Anyone who moved to South Australia to take advantage of good health services would know they had to pay for the privilege.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/state-debate-under-turnbulls-scheme-voters-must-weigh-tax-versus-cost-of-healthcare-20160329-gntsub.html#ixzz44N2kY89S
Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook
[it was a Jay Weatherill proposal after all]
Wrong again steely.
[We don’t need to wait to point out that the Coalition are contradicting themselves yet again.]
That’s one thing they ARE good at!
[We don’t need to wait to point out that the Coalition are contradicting themselves yet again.]
There’s never been a more exciting time to innovate at incompetence!
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits 29m29 minutes ago Canberra, Australian Capital Territory
To anyone who had a hand in convincing Malcolm on his tax adventure: we all stuff up, best to admit error (in private), learn and move on.]
Even Mumbles thinks it’s a loser!
[Worst Government Ever.
I challenge anyone to provide evidence to the contrary.
How is it even possible for this government to have deteriorated more than when it was being led by Abbott and Hockey?
The fact that Joe Hockeys once envisaged long-lasting reign as Australias most incompetent and unachieving Treasurer has so quickly been superseded by the dunce-like Scott Morrison is truly frightening.
As is the fact that Turnbull has failed to competently step up to the role as PM considering he took over from a knuckle dragging buffoon and had absolutely nothing to live up to.]
Agree Colton, and I truly think it is because they did absolutely no work in opposition other than attack the Rudd & Gillard govts. I truly think they assumed they would simply ‘know what to do’ but they don’t. At all. And they are just taking advice from coat-tuggers like the IPA.
lizzie at 1606
He talked about this proposal on the Drum. And he didn’t get it when it was pointed out that as the tax was collected by the Commonwealth, even at a variable level depending on what the State wanted, there would be a disconnect between the voter voting for a State government and the collection of their tax by the Commonwealth. And Martin did not get it.
Perhaps it was victoria enquiring what the twitter exchange with Brendon O’Connor was about on Raf Epstein’s program?
He has a regular Wednesday arvo segnent called “Fight Club” in which he has a pollies from both Labor and Lib whom he questions and gets both to rebut the other persons positions.
This arvo’s segment had Steve Ciobo vs. Brendon O’Connor and Ciobo did a rant about O’Connor’s brother, CFMEU, corruption and therefore the predictable link the Labor. It got pretty nasty as Ciobo is want to do and O’Connor accused Ciobo of being defamatory. Ciobo then got waylaid by some questions from Raf.
I’ll give marks to Raf Epstein for his questioning of pollies of all stripes. OTOH, Jon Faine now gives me the irrits with his cynicism.
Fess
I disagree with mumbles. Turnbull should admit that he doesnt have a clue as to what is beneficial for the nation and resign immediately
Thanks monica
jon Faine has become very cynical of late. And he does give me the irrits too.
[An “innovation” ad has just aired on TV. It’s very frustrating seeing this rubbish given the present state of the Turnbull government.]
The good news is that it is so vague and airy fairy that it will have no impact politically. Shame about the waste of money though. It would have been much better used to fund the kind of legal services that D&M’s friend needed.
Malcolm Farr doesn’t seem to like Turnbull’s new tax:
[THE Coalition’s “lower, simpler, fairer” tax promise has been smashed like a Tony Abbott coffee table with today’s proposal to give premiers income taxing powers.]
http://www.news.com.au/finance/money/tax/turnbulls-proposal-ditches-seven-decades-of-tax-principle-and-a-few-liberal-slogans/news-story/0022f1f9ce390f8067515533a02d62bd
TPOF
The things he picks out as ‘benefits’ are not comparable with hospitals and education. He got too excited and didn’t think it through. Just like Mal, I suppose.
[To tell the truth, I’d love it if each state decided on a different mix. Then each could look at the other and see what worked best. NSW was the first to make Australian history compulsory in high school. Victoria was the first to make seat belts compulsory. Tasmania was the first to introduce daylight saving. Each picked what worked. Experimentation is what federations are meant to be about. It’s no accident that federations such as Canada, the United States and Germany usually work better than unitary states such as Italy, Greece and France.
By presenting states with hard choices Turnbull will not only make the experimentation more real, he’ll also make the states run things better. There isn’t a terribly strong incentive to run hospitals and schools well when you’re not coming up with all the money yourself. There’s a much stronger incentive if you’re paying for the lot.
…Turnbull wants us to face reality.]
Rummel @ 1596 – the Cayman Island planet where you don’t pay tax.
Tom
Jenauthor @ 1611
One can only wonder what happened to their 200 fully costed policies they mentioned at every chance before the 2013 election.
Those policies have proven to be more elusive than the wreckage of MH370.
The only difference is that we know that MH370 did at one stage actually exist.
Arfur’s memory still a problem?
[Kenny Devine @TheKennyDevine · 36m36 minutes ago
BREAKING: Turnbull/Morrison issues blamed on Sinodinos. “Arthur was supposed to be passing messages on; I guess he forgot”, said a source.]
Peter Martin did think the MTM was a masterpiece, if I recall correctly.
Double, double tax and trouble;
Malcolm burn with thought bubble!
BTW I think that 1621 was a joke. Forgot to add.
victoria, it’s been interesting since I retired and usually have 774 on during the week, how Jon Faine has been pushing the line that our politics is broken on account of you can’t trust pollies of any stripe.
I find this just stupid given that the current State Labor gov’t and Dan Andrews is delivering so well.
Today’s report from the Domestic Violence RC being a case in point. Also covered very well by Raf Epstein’s program.
[Peter Martin did think the MTM was a masterpiece, if I recall correctly.]
Peter Martin is an economist’s economist. He is not an IPA type, as they put ideology first and then develop an argument based on superficial economic claims twisted to satisfy their ideological objectives. However, Martin seems to still believe in homo economus, even though that person has been shown to be a fantasy by behavioural economists.
Monica
Faine always seems to have ‘good’ Liberal contacts, which may account for his added cynicism currently.
Well, glancing through the newspaper web sites, there are still plenty of commentators taking Turnbull’s Great Big New Tax idea seriously, or at least they’re not laughing outright.
Lots of heads are nodding, and lots of beards are being stroked.
Why? I dunno. Maybe it’s collective madness.
An idea that surfaced yesterday, will be put to the Premiers tomorrow. It’s already being treated as if it’s a foregone conclusion. The ABC is being cautiously reverent. And the PM is agile and innovative again. I don’t get it.
Monica Lynagh
Agreed Dan Andrews govt has been delivering. Faine is just jaded in my view. One thing that has annoyed me, is his continual framing of the proposed elevated rail project as sky rail. He says it in such a condescending manner. Mind you he does believe the project is a good one.
Just saw some images of the war in Yemen on ABC TV news. The shot of one poor starving little kid – he must have weighed 10 kilos – screaming and begging for food before he died of starvation will haunt me forever.
Truly.Bloody.Awful.
Monica L
As lizzie pointed out Faine does seem to have very good Liberal contacts, and it may be adding to his cynicism. 😀
BB
I saw some of those images today, and it is truly awful
Bushfire Bill
[ I don’t get it. ]
No-one has asked the punters yet. I expect the idea of double taxation, and also giving taxation abilities to the most corrupt level of government, to go over like a lead balloon.
Sky News Australia
12m12 minutes ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
Shadow Treasurer @Bowenchris says the governments proposal to allow states to levy income tax is “the wackiest idea” http://snpy.tv/1PEXaGA
lizzie, it occurred to me some time ago that the talk back folk on 774 such as Faine and Epstein were under instruction to get anybody who was a pollie of any stripe to talk to them, and one can understand that.
However, what seems way over the odds is the over representation of the IPA all over the ABC. Maybe that contributes to Faine’s cynicism?
[NSW was the first to make Australian history compulsory in high school. Victoria was the first to make seat belts compulsory. Tasmania was the first to introduce daylight saving..]
Yes, and they all did that under the existing system.
I’m a Victorian. I would vote for higher state taxes and a better health system. But what happens if I get ill whilst visiting a state which voted the other way? Would I need travel insurance to pop over the border (which I do regularly) just in case NSW isn’t going to offer me the level of treatment I’ve chosen?
Turnbull’s TWO great big new taxes. What a joke!
If Labor had proposed the state income taxes how would Abbott have described it?
Bushfire bill
Ditto.
The kids always come last in war and conflicts.
Starvation of civilians is used as a weapon of war and that tells me the human race is full of sociopathic areskeholes.
Well, from what I can make out, the State levying income tax thingy seems to be going exceptionally well. Everything I’ve heard seems to be ‘hot air balloon going down’.
I thought a while ago that the biggest thing Labor had to successfully contest was this meme that the LNP were the better economic managers, still evident in today’s Essential report. I reckon Turnbull, ably assisted by Morrison, who’s a dunce, is doing a very good job of destroying.
[Sohar
Posted Wednesday, March 30, 2016 at 6:11 pm | Permalink
Rowe at Mal’s caff.]
Is that a cooked cat’s head at the bottom of Morrison’s pot?
[However, what seems way over the odds is the over representation of the IPA all over the ABC. Maybe that contributes to Faine’s cynicism?]
Obviously a preference for the organ grinder over the monkeys.
Boerwar,
Cats often make an appearance in Rowe cartoons on Turnbull. I think this morning’s one was of him and Cash stuffing them into a bag (presumably for drowning). I’m sure the cat and Malcolm theme is not lost on Mal.
The whole thing is incredibly confused.
How much of the current income tax take will the Commonwealth forego?
How will this be apportioned between the States?
Would differential rates be the result of State taxation legislation, or by the States indicating the rates they wish the Commonwealth to set?
Will there be some sort of taxation guarantee whereby the total income tax take may never exceed 100% of what would otherwise be collected by the Commonwealth?
I can understand why federalists are excited, but this just feels like a completely ill-considered, poorly constructed idea. In the context of the thoughtful, deliberative debate the Prime Minister promised us even the word ‘idea’ seems generous.
[If Labor had proposed the state income taxes how would Abbott have described it?]
A Great Big Double Tax on Working Australians!
There’s nothing wrong with redundancy or diversity or competition in general. They have their merits and their place. They make a system more robust, adaptable, perhaps self-correcting, etc. Think “putting all your eggs in one basket” or the problems of monoculture.
The problem is when they tell us we can have these things + efficiency + simplicity + everything else. No you can’t. Or when they propose a system with such properties and then tell us they’re reducing complexity. If you’re going to mischaracterise your own proposal, don’t expect people to be impressed.
The Defence White Paper: nothing in it. Just words. No funding decisions. Just blather. Sometime in the Never Never this will happen or that will happen. It goes out to TEN elections from now. Blather.
The effects test. A 180 back flip which again was just words. There was no change to legislation. There was no change to institutions. There was no change to regulations. Just blather.
The DD. Nothing has happened. We have a three week hiatus in governance. Nothing is happening. Just blather.
The Mighty Innovations Statement. The Abbott/Turnbull Government cut $2 billion from national research. The Innovation Statement clawed back half of this and rebadged it. Net change: $1 billion less on research. Apart from lots of bloviating, the only concrete Innovations spend to date has been $28 million on the Ideas Boom Brain Fart. That is all. After three f*cking years. Nothing.
Climate change. Much posturing about differentiating from Abbott but the reality is that massive coal mines continue to be approved. Oh, and $3 million being pissed up the wall on stroking the windmill franchise of the anti-vaxxers. Then the existing spend has been re-arranged so that it no longer focuses on reducing carbon emissions. It is focussed on research. And some of that research is supposed to happen in ten years and three elections from now. Blather, bloviation, and the old three card trick.
The State Tax. Just words. No structure. The very few parameters are being contested publicly by Morrison and Turnbull. The recurring sub-text: we took $80 billion and have nowhere to hide except if we create the mother of all unicorn shit-storms. Classic Tricky Turnbull blather.
Summary: Turnbull is doing the Big Short on Australia. He is shovelling bullshit as fast as he can but nothing real is happening.
Nothing.
Maybe a little off topic, but did anyone notice that three “terrorist events” happened in the last week or so? Did anyone know that?
AB
There was one shooting incident on Capital Hill where a guy from Tennessee shouted out something about the Lord Jesus but seeing he didn’t shout “Alluha akbar” it couldn’t have been a terrorist act.
We’re waay beyond vaudeville now, and I’m sure the comedians can come up with much better and more engaging content than today’s political spin doctors.
[Makes sense when you think about it. Outsource your slogan writing to the pithiest artists of them all. Since it’s Comedy Festival season in Melbourne, we asked seven comics for the most meaningless slogan they could come up with. Strong themes emerged.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/comedy/melbourne-comedy-festival/comedians-suggest-meaningless-political-slogans-for-the-next-federal-election-20160330-gnsytf.html?
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