Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January-March 2016

Newspoll breakdowns find the Turnbull government sinking in Victoria and South Australia; another poll suggests the government will have a hard time selling its budget; internal polling reportedly shows Bronwyn Bishop’s goose to be cooked in Mackellar; and a Liberal-versus-Nationals stoush looms with the retirement of Sharman Stone in Murray.

Probably not much doing in the land of polling over Easter, but The Australian as always takes advantage of the situation to unload Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates, providing breakdowns of the combined polling so far this year by state, gender and metro/regional. The results strongly suggest the Coalition’s recent downward movement has been driven by Victoria.

Also of note:

• The Australian has results from a privately commissioned poll by MediaReach which suggests Bronwyn Bishop would suffer a heavy defeat if Dick Smith ran against her as an independent in Mackellar, as he says he will do if she again wins Liberal preselection. The poll of 877 respondents showed Smith on 54% of the primary vote, compared with just 21% for Bishop. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said Bishop should retire, and she recorded a net favourability of minus 30% compared with plus 59% for Smith. A report in the Daily Telegraph this week said support for Bishop was rapidly waning ahead of the preselection vote on April 16.

• A poll conducted for Sky News by Omnipoll, a new venture involving former Newspoll director Martin O’Shannessy, suggests the federal government will have a difficult sell with its mooted company tax cut. Out of four budgetary options offered, this one was most favoured by 3% of respondents, compared with 46% for fixing the bottom line, 27% for spending more on education, and 25% for personal income tax cuts. Respondents also faced a forced choice question on whether Malcolm Turnbull had lived up to expectations and Prime Minister, which broke 62-38 against. A table at the Sydney Morning Herald features breakdowns by age and, interestingly and unusually, income. The results suggest the most indulgent view of Turnbull’s performance is taken by the young and the wealthy.

• An intra-Coalition stoush looms in the rural Victorian seat of Murray, following Sharman Stone’s retirement announcement on Saturday. Stone gained the seat for the Liberals upon the retirement of Nationals member Bruce Lloyd in 1996. Rebecca Urban of The Australian reports candidates for Liberal preselection will include Duncan McGauchie, “a Melbourne-based communications specialist and former policy adviser to previous Victorian premier Ted Baillieu”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,804 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January-March 2016”

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  1. JD@1485

    I was thinking the same thing this morning….Mal did say he didnt care which party he joined as long as became PM….

    His views probably align more with the ALP than the LNP.

  2. [ Boerwar

    Posted Wednesday, March 30, 2016 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    Of course everyone knows that comparing colonisers is an ethical dead end.

    There are no good choices.

    Except, of course, for the Boers who were gentle and kindly towards the people who moved into Boer territory for employment, access to Christianity, and secure living conditions.

    ]

    Boerwar – presently reading a book “The Devil’s Handiwork” – A victims view of Allied War Crimes

    NOTHING compares to Stalin or Mao Zedong or Hitler on a criminal grand scale of victimisation/deaths of their own people …… but the Civil War, Boer War ……right through to Cologne, Hamburg , Dresden …. Hiroshima, Nagasaki ….Vietnam, Laos, ..Fallujah and the many other ‘interventions/bombing’ by the US and its Allies …..does not reflect a lot of credit on us “good guys” ….. and may the Great Spirit help us – and the “bad guys” – if Trump ever gets to be the POTUS ….

    ” The greatest crime since World War 11 has been U.S. foreign policy ” – Ramsey Clark – former U.S. Attorney General

  3. I believe that the “state tax’ is just a red herring to bring the state based land tax idea back to the table.

    A pretty standard political move….propose something really bad and then settle for something half as bad…the voters are deceived into thinking they have dodged a bullet..

  4. Gillian Triggs ‏@GillianTriggs 13m13 minutes ago

    Release of #RCFV report furthers important discussions on family and domestic violence. Freedom from violence a fundamental human right.

  5. corporate_misfit – putting aside that my suggestion that Turnbull is a Labor mole was not a serious one, I don’t really agree that Turnbull’s views align with Labor, although on social issues they largely do (except on safe schools, the ssm plebescite etc).

    They may have aligned during the 80s and 90s when Labor was more economically centrist/neoliberal, but now with Labor becoming increasingly sceptical of neoliberal ideology, Turnbull would be quite unwelcome in the modern ALP.

  6. “may the Great Spirit help us – and the “bad guys” – if Trump ever gets to be the POTUS ….”

    John Pilger, lefty renowned journalist seems to feel that Obama and Clinton have been, and are far more likely to be a threat to innocent people around the world than Trump.

    http://johnpilger.com/articles/trump-and-clinton-censoring-the-unpalatable

    Trump is more explicitly pro-american and anti-foreigner perhaps but his danger to others revolves around whether he is more likely to think intervention in foreign affairs is better for America.

    His history of speech says that this is not so – his position is more protectionalist and isolationist than world policeman (he sees no reason to fight against Russia for instance…).

  7. http://www.crikey.com.au/2016/03/30/o-canada-minerals-council-comes-a-cropper-on-company-tax/

    Worth a read if you have Crikey subscription.

    The Minerals Council released a report yesterday urging a cut in company tax rate. Bernard Keane and Glenn Dyer dissected the report and noted that it was written by a Canadian. He named a few countries that had good investment to GDP ratio. However, he conveniently did not include any Canadian examples in the report.

    Canada is similar to Australia in the sense where it relied on mining. Canada, however had a company tax cut. However, Australia seems to have increased both investments and wages in proportion to Canada despite the lack of a company tax cut.

  8. Malcolm’s “views probably align more with the ALP than the LNP”, misfit?

    Except for the whole-hearted support for Bosses’ Choices, and the obsession with restoring the ABCC’s powers. His views on “social” issues may be small-l liberal (though so far he hasn’t had the guts to impose them on the “Liberal” party), and the knuckle-draggers in the party may equate that (laughably) with the left, but no, on the whole he’s a good traditional Bosses’ Party person.

  9. [ L G H

    Posted Wednesday, March 30, 2016 at 5:31 pm | Permalink

    “may the Great Spirit help us – and the “bad guys” – if Trump ever gets to be the POTUS ….”

    John Pilger, lefty renowned journalist seems to feel that Obama and Clinton have been, and are far more likely to be a threat to innocent people around the world than Trump.

    ]

    A counter opinion – but don’t want to get into a mind numbing circular argument of recent PB times 😉

    Trump presidency doesn’t bode well for global peace

    Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump, if elected, will try to reassert US dominance by increasing military spending and starting a new arms race, which does not bode well for global peace, says Professor Dennis Etler, who has a decades-long interest in politics.

    Etler, a professor of Anthropology at Cabrillo College in Aptos, California, told Press TV on Friday that Trump is even more aggressive than former US President Ronald Reagan, who started several proxy wars in Central America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

    A British research organization — the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) — has warned that if Trump became president of the United States, he would pose a grave danger to the world.

    MORE :

    http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/03/18/456492/Trump-peacemaker-warmonger

  10. Hmmm.

    Just had a call from Honda to say that they are doing a recall because there is a problem with ‘driver’s airbag inflator’, which could cause the airbag to split. They haven’t had a problem in Australia as yet, but I shall be driving very cautiously until the day my little Jazz goes in for a replacement!!

  11. You lot are talking about Malcolm’s “views” as if he actually has some principles. He’s a chameleon who wears whatever garb he thinks is popular.

  12. Anyone would think Malcolm Turnbull is actually trying to lose the next election (and blowing up the Liberal Party along with it).

    He wouldn’t be, would he? 😉

  13. BK:

    His reshuffle yesterday appeared to sink without trace only hours after it was announced. My answer to your question therefore: no!

  14. phoneixRED @1564

    Definitely aware of a lot of material out there that outlines the world ending under Trump.
    Just indicated that there are respected opinions (even on the left) that don’t feel the same way.

    The truth is that Trump (like Palmer in Australia) has (had) the potential to break the mould for good or bad.

    Clinton, Obama, Bush, Cruz etc is a guarantee of a continuation of the US doctrine of the last 3 decades (and beyond) that has given rise to the current threats.

    Sanders doesn’t have a chance.

    The US (like Australia) really needs a government that will break free from the current paradigms. Until we get that the negatives (inequality, selling out of the middle class etc) will continue apace and war and conflict not far behind.

  15. K-17 – I’m sure there are some principles that Malcolm has a tendency to believe in. That doesn’t mean he’s prepared to fight for them against scary rednecks – but deep down, somewhere, he’d kind of like to fight for them if he knew he could esily attract majority support.

  16. Did anyone hear this on ABC radio Melbourne?

    John Wren ‏@JohnWren1950
    .@BOConnorMP I’m shocked to have heard @steveciobo’s vile attack on you & your family. He is the epitome of right wing scum. #auspol

    11

    15

    John Wren
    1h1 hour ago
    John Wren ‏@JohnWren1950
    .@steveciobo is a disgusting defamatory pig. @raf_epstein should be ashamed to host him on @774Melbourne

  17. A good start to fixing things would be the banning of any donations over $250 and the axing of corporate donations entirely.

    Parties would need to rely on their own members for funds and their own fund raising efforts and would no longer be beholden (in the same way) to big business.

    But good luck getting that through with the current vested interests…

  18. BK

    My model looks small outside, but turns into a station wagon inside. Big turning circle though.

    The chap who rang said there were about 20,000 cars in the recall. I suppose the ‘airbag inflator’ may not be specific to my model.

  19. victoria:

    Well given it’s the coalition, I wouldn’t put it past them to send out a foot soldier to vilely defame someone in the hopes it deflects attention from Turnbull’s self-induced, double tax nightmare.

  20. [Indigenous heritage consultants are demanding an urgent halt to construction of a section of Sydney’s new light rail line, after one of the largest recent discoveries of indigenous artefacts in the city.

    About 20,000 artefacts have already been recovered, and heritage experts working at the site say there could be more than 50,000 at the area intended to be used to stable trams in Randwick.

    “There is nothing at all like this in Sydney,” said Scott Franks, whose company was contracted to advise on indigenous heritage issues for the $2.1b light rail line.

    One of the significant elements of the find, Mr Franks said, was that some artefacts appeared to be from the Hunter Valley.

    “You have material that’s not from Sydney,” he said, citing the fine cryptocrystalline stone of some of the artefacts.

    “It demonstrates a trading route, or that the mobs out of the Hunter Valley were working with the mobs in Sydney.”

    But the site, near the corner of Alison Road and Doncaster Avenue, could be at risk. Transport for NSW has acknowledged the significance of the find but has not said if it would comply with the request to stop work on a transport project with tight time frames.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/call-to-halt-sydney-light-rail-after-massive-indigenous-artefact-find-20160329-gnsxr4.html

  21. Worst Government Ever.

    I challenge anyone to provide evidence to the contrary.

    How is it even possible for this government to have deteriorated more than when it was being led by Abbott and Hockey?

    The fact that Joe Hockeys once envisaged long-lasting reign as Australias most incompetent and unachieving Treasurer has so quickly been superseded by the dunce-like Scott Morrison is truly frightening.

    As is the fact that Turnbull has failed to competently step up to the role as PM considering he took over from a knuckle dragging buffoon and had absolutely nothing to live up to.

  22. BK

    [Does Barnett matter anymore?]

    Of course he’d support it. His ineptitude in managing the WA economy has mad the state cash-strapped. He’ll clutch at any straw that might compensate for his incompetence.

  23. Regarding the Honda airbag recall, I looked at the honda.com.au website and could not find anything but the honda.com website has details

    http://hondaairbaginfo.com/news-updates/a-message-to-our-customers-about-takata-airbags/

    This seems to be part of a massive worldwide recall of airbags made by Takata which were fitted to many makes going back many years. For example, our 2003 Pulsar was recalled (and fixed).

    Any Honda dealer will have details of recalls affecting all Honda models.

  24. So it looks like everyone has made there mind up, do you think its worth waiting to see the full policy maybe waiting until the Premiers look at the proposal and seeing what they think, it was a Jay Weatherill proposal after all, NO ok then. I do hope when labor get to power that Coalition voters actually wait and have a look at a policy before deciding it is crap just because its a labor policy.

  25. citizen

    Thanks for that detail. You’d wonder why they went on using the airbags for so long – perhaps they made an ‘improved’ model.

  26. Colton how about you give us a list of Morrison’s failed policies I am the first To admit they have done very little since overthrowing Abbott and Hockey but you have to wait for the Budget and if that is a failure then you can bang your drum.

  27. Steelydan

    [I do hope when labor get to power that Coalition voters actually wait and have a look at a policy before deciding it is crap just because its a labor policy.]

    The Coalition-biased media have never waited before. I doubt they’ll start now. Too much fun.

  28. An “innovation” ad has just aired on TV. It’s very frustrating seeing this rubbish given the present state of the Turnbull government.

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