Double dissolution (maybe) minus 14 weeks

Senate preselection wreaks more discord among the NSW Liberals; Tim Wilson snatches victory in Goldstein; Stan Grant fields approaches from the Liberals; preselection challenges aplenty to sitting Liberals in WA; and Bronwyn Bishop reportedly in strife in Mackellar.

As the likelihood of a July 2 election firms, the preselection treadmill gathers pace. All the action this week is on the conservative side of the fence:

• New discord has emerged in the fractious New South Wales branch of the Liberal Party over its preselection for the Senate, after a party vote on Saturday delivered top position to Hollie Hughes, Moree-based autism support advocate and the state party’s country vice-president. This reduced the remaining incumbent, Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, to number two, in defiance of the wishes of the Prime Minister, who had recently signalled his support by promoting her to the ministry. With number three reserved for Nationals Senator Fiona Nash, the result also meant neither of the Liberals’ winnable positions was available to Jim Molan, a former senior army officer who was heavily involved in the government’s efforts against unauthorised boat arrivals. Hughes has since forestalled a looming state executive intervention by agreeing to be relegated to number two. At issue was the presence on the preselection panel of two lobbyists and moderate factional operatives, Michael Photios and Nick Campbell, two years after Photios had been forced off the state executive by a Tony Abbott-sponsored rule forbidding the involvement of lobbyists. Opponents of the moderates cited in a report by David Crowe of The Australian claim that without the involvement of Photios and Campbell, Fierravanti-Wells and Molan might have taken the top two spots, with number three going to Andrew Bragg, policy director at the Financial Services Council. Tony Abbott described the outcome of the vote as “another exercise of stitching up”, which had been “tainted” by the involvement of Photios. If a double dissolution elections is called, the entire process will need to be revisited in a way that also accounts for Marise Payne, John Williams and Arthur Sinodinos, who were elected in 2013.

• Outgoing Human Rights Commissioner Tim Wilson has been preselected to succeed Andrew Robb as Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Goldstein. The Australian reports Wilson prevailed in the local party ballot over Denis Dragovic, a “lecturer, former hostage negotiator and columnist”, by the paper-thin margin of 142 votes to 140. Eliminated in the first round were Georgina Downer, with 66 votes, and Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive John Osborn, on 18 votes. The vote came shortly after a pamphlet was distributed to preselectors describing Wilson as “a danger to our families, schools and the local community”, owing to his “unrelenting campaign for gay rights issues”.

• The Daily Telegraph reports Bronwyn Bishop faces defeat in the Mackellar preselection at the hands of Jason Falinski, owner of aged care business Carewell Health. Falinski was Malcolm Turnbull’s Wentworth campaign manager in 2004, and has worked for John Hewson and Barry O’Farrell. While Falinski is strongly associated with the moderates faction, the Telegraph reports he “will get the support of much of the Right because of an anyone-but-Bronwyn attitude caused by her switching sides on Tony Abbott”.

• A further three challenges have emerged against federal Liberals in Western Australia, in addition to the widely reported contest between Tangney MP Dennis Jensen and the state party’s former director, Ben Morton. Liberal sources invoked by Andrew Burrell of The Australian suggest Nola Marino is under pressure from Ben Small, although all I can discern of Small is that he lives in Bunbury. Elsewhere, Swan MP Steve Irons faces Carl Pallier, state manager of Suncorp Insurance, and Durack MP Melissa Price is opposed by David Archibald, a geologist.

• Seven Liberal Party members have nominated for preselection in the new southern Perth seat of Burt. Andrew Burrell of The Australian suggests the front-runner is Matthew O’Sullivan, “who runs Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne philanthropic movement aimed at ending indigenous disparity”. However, Gosnells councillor Liz Storer is reported to be “backed by conservative forces”. Also in the field are Marisa Hislop, a small business owner; Daniel Nikolic, a company director; Lance Scott, the party’s divisional president; and a low-profile figure named Lesley Boyd.

Sarah Martin of The Australian reports the Liberal Party has approached indigenous journalist Stan Grant about running for preselection against Labor’s Julie Owens in her highly marginal seat of Parramatta. The Liberals will be choosing their candidate for the seat through a trial plebiscite of local party members of more than two years’ standing, amid an ongoing brawl within the party over the power of head office in the party’s preselections.

• Melissa Grant of AAP reports on a second contestant for the Liberal National Party preselection to succeed Ian MacFarlane in the Queensland seat of Groom, joining the widely touted state member for Toowoomba South, John McVeigh. The candidate is Toowoomba general practitioner David van Gend, who describes himself on his Twitter bio as a “combatant on matters of life and death: euthanasia, cloning, abortion, gay ‘marriage’, faith and freedom” – his perspective on such matters being conservative.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,390 comments on “Double dissolution (maybe) minus 14 weeks”

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  1. The reason you all scored so highly on the greens side is the majority of you are to the far left of the labor party, you are not mainstream labor, your full on lefties anyone coming to this site can see that, I doubt that there is many Green policies that you disagree with. I just hope that you know that, and I am not trying to piss you off.

  2. Steelydan

    That’s true! but it’s comparable to a Left person commenting on a Right blog.

    It never goes well! lol.

    But if you are invited in the door, mind the manners, is my philosophy.

  3. There’s a very good chance that prettyone will be a Labor voter and steelydan will be on the cusp with that quiz. Unless you game it.

  4. I might say, if it’s okay, Tony Abbott has a great legacy according to Conservatives.

    Now I know you guys don’t agree, but he Stopped the Boats, one of the greatest policies in last 10 years possibly, looking at the terrible problems facing Europe.

    He got rid of the Carbon Tax to keep people like Qantas afloat. They are now doing okay. And a useless Mining Tax which would cripple miners now in the big downturn.

    He tried to rein in expenditure. Some of it wasn’t appropriate and needed revision, I know, but the endeavour was there.

    And put funds into fighting the ice epidemic. There’s other stuff like htt. But I know you chaps and chapettes are not interested.

    That’s okay, I just wanted to say Mr Abbott has a legacy and Mr Turnbull wants to steal it and get elected on it. Therefore the legacy is there.

    Now don’t get cross.

  5. [1251
    Steelydan]

    There’s nothing left-wing about the G’s. They are subalterns to the Liberal program. They intend to disrupt, distract and obstruct Labor. That’s their mission. Everything they do is hinged around this purpose.

  6. prettyone.

    Labors very sane policy is to reintroduce the price on carbon. Abbott knew what he wanted to destroy; but little more.

  7. [1258
    prettyone

    I might say, if it’s okay, Tony Abbott has a great legacy according to Conservatives.

    Now I know you guys don’t agree, but he Stopped the Boats…He got rid of the Carbon Tax ]

    Yeah….and in so doing he also stopped the G’s.

  8. [ prettyone
    Posted Sunday, March 27, 2016 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

    ….a useless Mining Tax which would cripple miners now in the big downturn. ]

    Thats not accurate.

    The tax proposed was based on boom prices, not when prices fell.

    If that law was still in place it wouldn’t cost the mining industry a penny.

    Just saying…

  9. 1265
    dave

    The good thing to come out of all that was the Henry Tax (RSPT) was not adopted. If it had been, taxpayers would now be carrying the costs of closing down uneconomic mines and gas projects.

  10. 1266
    Steelydan
    Posted Sunday, March 27, 2016 at 8:30 pm | Permalink

    Where is this quiz?

    On the G homepage – its about 6 years out of date.

  11. frednk@1259

    Arthur Sinodinos can use John Dyson Heydon AC QC excuse.

    He is pretty well out of excuses. None of which cut the mustard.

    Looking more and more up a well known creek in a well known canoe.

  12. briefly@1267

    1265
    dave

    The good thing to come out of all that was the Henry Tax (RSPT) was not adopted. If it had been, taxpayers would now be carrying the costs of closing down uneconomic mines and gas projects.

    Briefly – Yes – it had a very nasty sting in the tail – a tail which came around too quickly.

    Yet again a case of politicians needing to be very careful of things put under their noses by Treasury boffins.

  13. Arthur Sinodinos, what can you say? Put aside under Tony Abbott because it was untenable to have someone under the ICAC cloud in a government position.

    I do remember Fairfax and ABC saying Tony ABbott should resign if he did nothing about Sinodinos. It was a very serious matter.

    Now, Fairfax, ABC and even the Australian are determined that Sinodinos is okay. You see, the elite media loves Mr Turnbull and will squish anything about him.

    To my mind, he’s the worst of the Liberal types. Greedy, untrustworthy and making millions out of shady deals. I can’t bear these types.

  14. Pretty One @1258: as Voltaire said, “I disagree with what you say, but defend to the extent of suffering mild inconvenience your right to say it.” (or something like that).

  15. 1271
    dave

    That was poor policy, adopted in haste and put forward for all the wrong reasons. It was also the undoing of Rudd. He made the mistake of deliberately picking a fight without being sure he would win. As it turned out, he was never going to win that one. The policy was just rubbish and not worth fighting for.

    Nothing will doom a PM more quickly than losing serious political fights. Turnbull should take note. He’s picked a fight with the Senate. If the Senate decide to defeat him he will be finished in no time. Abbott, quite clearly, can see his opportunities and is lifting his profile at the same time that Turnbull has taken on more risk. Maybe the Senate will help make Abbott Liberal leader for the second time.

  16. Agreed, Prettyone. Fairfax and the ABC have adjustable principles for every occasion. It was Abbott that sidelined people like Sinodinos and Brough because they were suss. Turnbull promoted them.

  17. swamprat

    Your rhetoric needs work –

    [100 years since the Easter Rising against British occupation of Ireland….]

    You mean “100 years since the Easter Rising against the brutish, rapacious English occupation of Ireland…”.

  18. Shorten suggesting to voters, to stop a Tony Abbott reincarnation you must vote Labor. Shorten is getting his attack lines down pat.

    John Hewson suggests the only way to mute Tony Abbott is to give him a role in the election campaign. I doubt that is going to work, because Abbott is only interested disestablishing. He will go through motions like he is campaigning, but he really is hoping Malcolm Turnbull will lose.

  19. Found it 80% labor 76% Liberal 28% Green. Not real sure about that feel more like 80% liberal 45% labor and 5% green.

  20. briefly

    A point in mitigation was the miners had indicated they were willing to pay a bit more tax – at the time they were rolling in money.

    But that all changed when the penny fell and Ken Henry gave devastating advice as the architect of it all.

    If abbott makes a comeback, we all will know they are utterly stuffed.

    Hewson’s advice is not helpful to tories either – abbott wants to break the furniture, smash the crockery and crap on the footpath in utter rage and no one…thats no one has any idea how to disarm the IED that is abbott.

    He won’t be bought off with and ambassadorship etc so he may well have to be expelled and that risks a schism within the tories.

    Bring it on I say – with bells.

  21. The joke is that it is really hard to know what the Liberals policies are. Do they want to increase the GST or not? Are they for or against foreign ownership? Do they want to build or destroy the NBN? It depends on what day you ask.

  22. prettyone

    [ And a useless Mining Tax which would cripple miners now in the big downturn.]
    Hey STOOPID, the tax was only paid when the prices were exceptionally high.

  23. dave @ 1225,

    abbott was hardly duded.

    abbott duded turnbull when he rolled him way back when

    *tea, meet computer screen* 😀

  24. Some observations about the quiz:

    – Greens aren’t as radical as most people seem to think
    – There is a lot of overlap between Labor and Greens
    – Labor, Liberal and Greens are all basically rational and have a view of what is best for Australia. There are overlaps, for example all believe in democracy
    – For many Labor people, the Greens espouse what we want, Labor go for what is possible.

    As for myself, I like a lot of what the Greens have to say, although I am not so much a closet Green as a closet Socialist.

  25. And still it keeps coming out – even on Easter Sunday –

    [ The fundraising body that has embroiled cabinet secretary Arthur Sinodinos in a campaign finance scandal did not tell NSW authorities it received almost $1 million in donations – including from property developers – the year it gave $693,000 to the Liberal party for the 2011 state election.

    The controversial Free Enterprise Foundation (FEF), whose donation to the NSW Liberals is the subject of an escalating dispute with the NSW electoral commission, told the state authority it received no donations in 2010-11.

    But it had received $958,000 from companies including Westfield ($150,000), Meriton ($50,000) and Walker Group ($100,000) in the same year – a fact it had disclosed in a separate declaration to the federal Australian Electoral Commission.

    Westfield, Meriton and Walker Group were unable to donate to the Liberals’ state election campaign as contributions from property developers are prohibited. However, they are allowed to donate to federal election campaigns.

    The revelation sheds new light on allegations the FEF was used by the NSW Liberals to funnel illegal donations to its 2011 campaign.

    It suggests the foundation did not want state authorities to make the link between the donations it had received and the money it gave to the NSW Liberals for the state election.

    ….Senator Sinodinos chaired the NSW Liberal finance committee and was party treasurer at the time, but has insisted he had no knowledge of the FEF being used to channel illegal donations.

    The finding has led to calls for Senator Sinodinos to stand aside as cabinet secretary.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberallinked-free-enterprise-foundation-failed-to-declare-1m-in-donations-20160327-gnrs1m.html#ixzz4465AXT21

  26. You may not all believe this, but I do think steely is fairly moderate by internet Liberal hack standards. At least he hasn’t openly endorsed the fascist dick heads at Reclaim Australia like TBA used to

  27. There is no evidence that Malcayman Lord Fauntleroy Velveteen Ballcupp, Prince of Point Piper, Earl of Wentworth, Sir Pollywaffle of the Swimming Pool (thanks Bluey) and Warden of the Sink Ports has ever done a day’s work on his life. So expecting him to be interested in revitalizing the Lib Party or developing policies is a bit fanciful imo

  28. Steelydan,
    What is it about you Uptighty Righties that you feel the need to constantly express barely-disguised contempt for social democrats?

    We don’t want to eat your children you know!?! In fact, if your children ever got into trouble and were down on their luck we would be the ones advocating for government programs to be available to them to pick them up and get them on their feet again.

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