Double dissolution (maybe) minus 14 weeks

Senate preselection wreaks more discord among the NSW Liberals; Tim Wilson snatches victory in Goldstein; Stan Grant fields approaches from the Liberals; preselection challenges aplenty to sitting Liberals in WA; and Bronwyn Bishop reportedly in strife in Mackellar.

As the likelihood of a July 2 election firms, the preselection treadmill gathers pace. All the action this week is on the conservative side of the fence:

• New discord has emerged in the fractious New South Wales branch of the Liberal Party over its preselection for the Senate, after a party vote on Saturday delivered top position to Hollie Hughes, Moree-based autism support advocate and the state party’s country vice-president. This reduced the remaining incumbent, Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, to number two, in defiance of the wishes of the Prime Minister, who had recently signalled his support by promoting her to the ministry. With number three reserved for Nationals Senator Fiona Nash, the result also meant neither of the Liberals’ winnable positions was available to Jim Molan, a former senior army officer who was heavily involved in the government’s efforts against unauthorised boat arrivals. Hughes has since forestalled a looming state executive intervention by agreeing to be relegated to number two. At issue was the presence on the preselection panel of two lobbyists and moderate factional operatives, Michael Photios and Nick Campbell, two years after Photios had been forced off the state executive by a Tony Abbott-sponsored rule forbidding the involvement of lobbyists. Opponents of the moderates cited in a report by David Crowe of The Australian claim that without the involvement of Photios and Campbell, Fierravanti-Wells and Molan might have taken the top two spots, with number three going to Andrew Bragg, policy director at the Financial Services Council. Tony Abbott described the outcome of the vote as “another exercise of stitching up”, which had been “tainted” by the involvement of Photios. If a double dissolution elections is called, the entire process will need to be revisited in a way that also accounts for Marise Payne, John Williams and Arthur Sinodinos, who were elected in 2013.

• Outgoing Human Rights Commissioner Tim Wilson has been preselected to succeed Andrew Robb as Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Goldstein. The Australian reports Wilson prevailed in the local party ballot over Denis Dragovic, a “lecturer, former hostage negotiator and columnist”, by the paper-thin margin of 142 votes to 140. Eliminated in the first round were Georgina Downer, with 66 votes, and Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive John Osborn, on 18 votes. The vote came shortly after a pamphlet was distributed to preselectors describing Wilson as “a danger to our families, schools and the local community”, owing to his “unrelenting campaign for gay rights issues”.

• The Daily Telegraph reports Bronwyn Bishop faces defeat in the Mackellar preselection at the hands of Jason Falinski, owner of aged care business Carewell Health. Falinski was Malcolm Turnbull’s Wentworth campaign manager in 2004, and has worked for John Hewson and Barry O’Farrell. While Falinski is strongly associated with the moderates faction, the Telegraph reports he “will get the support of much of the Right because of an anyone-but-Bronwyn attitude caused by her switching sides on Tony Abbott”.

• A further three challenges have emerged against federal Liberals in Western Australia, in addition to the widely reported contest between Tangney MP Dennis Jensen and the state party’s former director, Ben Morton. Liberal sources invoked by Andrew Burrell of The Australian suggest Nola Marino is under pressure from Ben Small, although all I can discern of Small is that he lives in Bunbury. Elsewhere, Swan MP Steve Irons faces Carl Pallier, state manager of Suncorp Insurance, and Durack MP Melissa Price is opposed by David Archibald, a geologist.

• Seven Liberal Party members have nominated for preselection in the new southern Perth seat of Burt. Andrew Burrell of The Australian suggests the front-runner is Matthew O’Sullivan, “who runs Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne philanthropic movement aimed at ending indigenous disparity”. However, Gosnells councillor Liz Storer is reported to be “backed by conservative forces”. Also in the field are Marisa Hislop, a small business owner; Daniel Nikolic, a company director; Lance Scott, the party’s divisional president; and a low-profile figure named Lesley Boyd.

Sarah Martin of The Australian reports the Liberal Party has approached indigenous journalist Stan Grant about running for preselection against Labor’s Julie Owens in her highly marginal seat of Parramatta. The Liberals will be choosing their candidate for the seat through a trial plebiscite of local party members of more than two years’ standing, amid an ongoing brawl within the party over the power of head office in the party’s preselections.

• Melissa Grant of AAP reports on a second contestant for the Liberal National Party preselection to succeed Ian MacFarlane in the Queensland seat of Groom, joining the widely touted state member for Toowoomba South, John McVeigh. The candidate is Toowoomba general practitioner David van Gend, who describes himself on his Twitter bio as a “combatant on matters of life and death: euthanasia, cloning, abortion, gay ‘marriage’, faith and freedom” – his perspective on such matters being conservative.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,390 comments on “Double dissolution (maybe) minus 14 weeks”

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  1. victoria @ 47,

    As parliament has been recalled to debate the bills and vote on same, do usual QT take place?

    Yep. 😀

    What have Labor got to lose? They can play merry hell with QT so close to an election. Imagine the forensic questions Dreyfus could ask about Arfur? 🙂

  2. from last night, my comment on the previous thread, re the NSW Libs

    The only thing that is going to defuse this is IF the Libs say who the donors were AND IF they were not prohibited donors.

    A lot of these donations were for the 2011 state election (I loved the way Turnbull phrased it as ‘an election in NSW in 2011’, as if there were so many of them that he wasn’t sure which election).

    As one of the purposes of the foundation is to obscure the donors and this is 5 years ago, what if the information on the donors is simply not available, so even, at the request of Baird and Turnbull the NSW Libs cannot comply.

    Also BB@42
    [
    When he avoids disaster for any 7 day period, expect Mark Kenny to tell us that “at last” Turnbull has his mojo back..
    ]
    I was wondering about this; it is prudent to assume that at some point Turnbull will get clean air perhaps even for 7 days, but what has he to say ?
    Attack Labor, waffle on climate change, spruik debt for cities infrastructure?

  3. Did anyone else notice, in the picture of Abbott with Cameron, how the Mad Monk(ey) had tucked his pants into his RM Williams boots, commando style? Just another subliminal for Malcolm to grok methinks.

  4. SCHOOLGIRL SLING MATCH: PM loses his cool on television

    WE WERE treated to a front-row seat of what seemed like a schoolgirl to-and-fro in an extraordinarily heated interview last night.

    Pressed by host Tony Jones on topics including “ghosts of government past”, that embarrassing Veep slogan and even political “psychodrama”, Prime Minister Turnbull unleashed his inner diva, clearly fatigued by questions that he wasn’t particularly pleased to answer, comparing Mr Jones’ questions to “barbs”.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/prime-minister-malcolm-turnbulls-heated-interview-on-lateline/news-story/5bcd898e930693a003f21419de03bb33

  5. [shiftaling
    Posted Friday, March 25, 2016 at 9:10 am | PERMALINK
    How much impact does a single appearance by Turnbull on Lateline have? I’m not downplaying it, it’s a serious question. Would that kind of poor performance have a major impact, would it just be Lateline viewers who might potentially change their vote, or is it the Press gallery who see it and set the tone of future coverage (the “blood in the water” proposition)]

    Turnbull’s Lateline interview is a top headline in Fairfax media, which gives a running commentary on the interview.

    It is also a top headline on the DT website and not paywalled (and repeated in news.com.au). That article also gives a running commentary and commences with the line “IT WAS all downhill for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull last night.”

    It looks like Murdoch is not giving Turnbull a free pass.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/prime-minister-malcolm-turnbulls-heated-interview-on-lateline/news-story/5bcd898e930693a003f21419de03bb33

  6. [Leonore Taylor asks what is Liberal vision for health funding]

    Easy their vision is not to fund health or education at all.

  7. John Reidy #52

    Did you see the Drum last night.

    The talking heads, especially Nick Cater, seemed oblivious to the fact that some of the donors might be illegal.

    They kept pushing the view that the libs just have to hand over the list and that’ll be the end of it.

    No mention at all about implications if and when illegal donations are actually identified.

  8. [But what are your thoughts regarding Labor’s possible strategies around amending the Bill (increasing the scope wider than the BC industry) or even just letting it go through, thus pressurising the Waffler to honour his commitment of no DD in that case.]

    Only that there are numerous options that can be made to work in Labor’s favour.

    They can go for the adjournment, they can filibuster, they can look to amend, they can spend days and days with statements in reply to the GG’s speech.

    The thing is they always have the option of pulling the pin on supply until May 12th if they think it’s their best option. But they don’t need to pull that trigger until May 11.

    So Labor will just play the game out and choose their course based on how the game is going. If the Libs continue to self destruct at the same rate then Labor will be quite happy to get on with a July 2 election.

    Turnbull no longer holds the whip hand. He pulled his surprise with the Sect 5 play, but that was his one shot in the locker. Now his opponents control the game.

  9. I agree, some perhaps many of the donors, could be illegal I was just wondering if they many have ‘archived’ the records from 2011.
    Also re the illegality – I didn’t see the Drum, but I expect people like Cater feel that banning donations for developers and spivs is unfair and infringes their ‘rights to free speech’, so it is a bad law. Conservatives only need to obey (and enforce for that matter) ‘good’ laws.

    Also re Lenore Taylor’s article – she makes the link between the ‘beltway’ issues of the relationship between the PM and the Treasurer and issues that are top of mind in voters – hospitals and education. That is by Tony Jones asking about this of Turnbull is relevant.

  10. NSW LNP “ineligible for further pubic funding”

    GREAT LOOK GUYS!

    NSW electoral commission decision here: http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/214672/23_March_2016_Liberal_Party_of_Australia_NSW_Division_ineligible_for_further_public_funding_and_supporting_information.pdf

    And this lot want an ABCC – having received illegal donation from construction developers. What a surprise!

    This is not going well for the Libs. Not well at all.

  11. Watched Lateline interview-Turnbull came across as a lazy, pompous, born-to-rule twit. Endless pointless lecturing, narkiness, groans and downward stares.
    He really thinks we are idiots.

  12. ratsak,

    Agree.

    The best political tactics for Labor is to keep quiet and not telegraph their intentions.

    This whole charade of recalling Parliament is the Government’s circus. Let them provide the clowns and the trapeze artists that perform without a safety net.

  13. Another interesting DT story today (cannot jump the paywall):

    [Sco-Mo gets right result in taxing times
    EXCLUSIVE: TREASURER Scott Morrison WINS back the support of the government’s conservative base, which deserted him after his role Tony Abbott’s political execution.]

    Does this imply a revamped 2014 budget in 2016? Is Morrison leaking to the DT in defiance of Turnbull? Does it imply further angst between Morrison and Turnbull? Stay tuned!

  14. vic,

    It’s actually seven years from the last time they were accessed or used.

    However, and more importantly, if a crime has been committed, there are no statutues of limitation.

  15. [Will Turnbull even make it to the election?

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/scott-morrison-wins-endorsement-from-conservative-liberal-mps-as-best-economic-manager/news-story/b4ca3ffb18e8c571607fde72f873ed71%5D

    Oh chortle chortle chortle. As I opined a day or two ago ScoMo would likely be rebuilding bridges to the nutbags after the way Turnbull has treated him.

    Methinks the nutbags are equally glad to rebuild bridges if they see Scotty as being their best option to tear down Turnbull. The hatred is barely concealed.

  16. GG

    Agreed.

    Anyhow a laugh from Wyatt Roy of all people of Slipper diary fame!!

    [The Turnbull government continues to stand by cabinet secretary Arthur Sinodinos who is facing calls to resign over his alleged involvement in a political donation scandal.

    Assistant Minister for Innovation Wyatt Roy told the Nine Network on Friday that the ‘very wise’ Sinodinos should be given the benefit of the doubt after the NSW electoral commission accused the NSW Liberal Party of masking the names of major prohibited donors at the time when Mr Sinodinos was its finance director.

    ‘He’s put out a statement saying that the claims that the electoral commission have made are false and I don’t think we should be jumping to any conclusions in this case,’ Mr Roy said.

    ‘We should give him the benefit of the doubt.’]

    – See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/03/25/government-standing-by-sinodinos.html?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=56f4750304d3013462b64925&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter#sthash.jUroOtds.dpuf

  17. Wyatt Roy, in spite of his mentoring by the Father of the House and his boosting by Turnbull over innovation policies, is still a bit wet behind the ears.

  18. I would not be surprised to see ALP release another policy just before May10. It would remove a bit of flatulence from the LNP budget narrative.

  19. Re Roy
    [
    ‘We should give him the benefit of the doubt.’
    ]
    Funny I don’t remember a conservative politican saying that at all, in reference to TURC.

  20. Where was the ‘Benefit of the doubt’ for Peter Slipper?
    Where was the ‘Benefit of the doubt’ for Craig Thomson?
    Where was the ‘Benefit of the doubt’ for Julia Gillard?

  21. c@t

    What about benefit of the doubt for Shorten? Dont forget fairfax advised him to step down as OL. Quite extraordinary when you think about it

  22. Morning all. It would be funny if Sinodinos did a Craig Thomson and tried to sue the EC. As if further publicity of the details could do anything other than embarrass him further? One of the all time empty threats.

    There have been a lot of embarrassed Belgian officials trying to explain how previously arrested terrorists were at large and untailed to bomb Brussels. The claim they were not warned has annoyed Turkey. Turkey has issed a detailed chronicle of the bombers previous deportation including easily chechable dates. Surely someone will be resigning over this?
    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/Default.aspx?pageID=517&nID=96845&NewsCatID=510

  23. [Where was the ‘Benefit of the doubt’ for Julia Gillard?]
    Gillard deserved no benefit because there was never any doubt. She was always guilty of being female and a leader.

  24. Turnbull, if anything, will be replaced after the election, rather than before. It’s too disastrous of them to do otherwise.

  25. I wonder how the rusted on lizard brains will react to Bolt?

    I don’t think its going to stop them voting Liberal. It might take the wind out of their sails and gag them somewhat.

  26. What would be truly hilarious is that the donors not yet disclosed are companies connected to the “mafia”.

    I will laugh my arse off if this turns out to be the case

  27. The question evedryone needs to ask regarding the decline of Turnbull is:

    Qui bono? Who benefits?

    Frankly just now I have no idea and this worries me

    Abbott? Not likely, although he might think he is
    Morrison? Yes I think this most likely
    Shorten? Maybe, but I am NOT convinced. Against Morrison at short notice, maybe not.
    Greens? Maybe a little as moderate LNP turn in desparation to the Greens

    Why are Farifax and Murdoch so hostile to Turnbull? Qui Bono? It would seem at the moment Ruppoert’s preference is

    Abbott
    Morrison
    Shorten
    Turnbull

    This is weird.

  28. From previous thread.
    bemused@825 on BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Coalition | The Poll Bludger

    cud chewer@711

    bemused,

    When the ABC head of current affairs apologises to Nick Ross and the ABC start having some informed commentary on the MTM train wreck, then I’ll believe it was all my imagination..

    What a dumb post.
    Of course it happened and of course you won’t see that apology.
    I have never said the ABC always gets everything right, of course it doesn’t. Never has, never will.

    But overall, it does a pretty reasonable job. e.g. Lateline tonight.

  29. That Jones trainwreck interview of Turnbull last night strongly reminds me of Rudd’s meltdown during his 730 interview after Flopenhagen.

    No-one likes to see their leaders rattled, sulking and petulant.

    I still say Labor is a very good bet at $4.50. Get on it!

  30. Further to the DT teaser on RW support for Morrison, the Hun’s teaser says:

    [Backbenchers back embattled Morrison
    A GROUP of conservative backbenchers has thrown support behind the embattled Scott Morrison, following days of internal criticism of the Treasurer’s performance. Five Liberal backbenchers — Michael Sukkar, Andrew Hastie, Andrew Nikolic, Tony]

    Unfortunately it cuts off at this point. Is there another Tony besides TA and who is the fifth person?

  31. bemused,

    That ABC has done a woeful job on the NBN. The culture is evident in the leaked tapes with the current affairs boss. The bullying from Turnbull and the need for false balance has infected so much of their output. We have Howard’s board stacking to blame for when this rot started.

  32. [I would not be surprised to see ALP release another policy just before May10. It would remove a bit of flatulence from the LNP budget narrative.]

    I’d be keeping an eye on the debt financed infrastructure space.

    With the hints that seem to have been dropped to Martin and Tingle etc If I were Shorten I’d be looking for some more confirmations that the Libs were serious on this.

    As soon as I was confident (or enough hints were out as per GST, Excessive Neg Gearing, and Bracket Creep tax cuts) I’d be out with a package of debt financing (say 30 year bonds) for the top few priorities identified by Infrastructure Australia.

    Wedge Turnbull again. He either has to try arguing the method is good but the priorities wrong (good luck), or he has to rejig his budget centrepiece to be able to go full Abbott.

    And/or go for indexing as we discussed previously but that is more something for a big bang in the budget in reply if the numbers stack up.

  33. Turnbull has proposed adopting a “modified form”(??) of the UK Government City Deals policy to fund infrastructure. This is not a bad idea in principle, as this UK policy analysis shows.
    http://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/4614/city-deals-give-and-take/

    However as in all such things, the devil is in the detail. The UK has a system of regional city Councils that we lack. Also the deals can be pretty narrowly based on economic metrics, and need an accountability mechanism. Will funds for rural Councils be assessed the same? Will this just become a means to bypass unfriendly State governments? No details given.

  34. Lizzie @17 (quoting Mr Scott Morrison)

    [In no business in this country would anyone just accept someone walking into their office and saying the increase in cost is 8%, give me the cheque.]

    Isn’t that exactly what AWH (Chairman A. Sinodinos) told Sydney Water?

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