The Coalition’s downward odyssey in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate enters its sixth week, although the movement on voting intention is slight this time, since all three pollsters this week (Newspoll, Roy Morgan and Essential) essentially repeated the results of their previous polls. Nonetheless, the 0.2% shift has been enough to bag Labor gains on the seat projection in New South Wales and Queensland. There is even more encouragement for Labor from the leadership ratings, on which Malcolm Turnbull is tanking rapidly, albeit that his head remains above the waterline in positive net approval. Bill Shorten’s trendlines are pointing northward, although he still has a very long way to go. Kevin Bonham had the following to say about the Newspoll leadership ratings, a day before they were corroborated by Essential Research:
Turnbull is still far more popular than Bill Shorten, but he’s dropped 35 points in the four polls taken since last November. This loss of 35 points in three and a half months is exceeded only by Paul Keating in 1993 (43 points in just over three months), John Howard in 1996 (36 points in six weeks) and Howard again in 2001 (38 points in six weeks). The 1996 Howard example comes with a big asterisk too, because Howard was falling from the career-high +53 netsat he had jumped 24 points to reach in the immediate aftermath of the Port Arthur massacre. It is not at all normal then for a PM to lose this much popularity this fast, but then again it is not that normal for them to have it in the first place.
Electoral matters:
• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review sees the two possibilities as the much-touted July 2 double dissolution, or a normal election in mid-August, either of which would leave time for a same-sex marriage plebiscite to be held by the end of the year. He also relates that the government is “exploring the logistics” of bringing down the budget on May 3, rather than the scheduled date of May 10, which is one day before the deadline for calling a double dissolution expires. Among other things, this would allow the government time to attempt to get its legislation reinstating the powers of the Australian Building and Construction Commission through the Senate. Its reject would confirm its currently contestable status as a double dissolution trigger, which the Greens sought to retain by having the government agree not to reintroduce it during the current session as part of its deal to legislate for Senate electoral reform.
• Amid talk of a possible early state election, Queenslanders go to the polls next Saturday to vote on a referendum proposal that would render such a thing impossible, by introducing fixed four-year terms with elections set for the last week in October. The referendum has been timed to coincide with local government elections, which also means that the big partisan prize of the Brisbane lord mayoralty is up for grabs. According to a Galaxy poll of 540 voters conducted for the Nine Network, Liberal National Party incumbent Graham Quirk holds a 53-47 two-party lead over Labor’s Tim Harding. This compares with his winning margin of 68.3-31.7 at the 2012 election, which was held a few weeks after Anna Bligh’s government had been decimated at the polls. The Galaxy poll also found Brisbane voters favouring the referendum proposal by 48% to 35%, but Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail, offers that “regional Queenslanders are expected to be much more sceptical towards the proposal”.
Preselection matters:
• The Liberal preselection to anoint a successor to Victorian Senator Michael Ronaldson has produced a surprise winner in James Paterson, the 28-year-old deputy executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs. Paterson will shortly fill the casual vacancy to be created by Ronaldson’s imminent retirement, and will head the party’s ticket in the event of a normal half-Senate election. It had been generally expected that the position would go to Jane Hume, a superannuation policy adviser who had the influential backing of Michael Kroger, president of the party’s state branch. Hume had earlier won preselection for the number three position on a Coalition ticket that allocates second place to the Nationals. Also in the race was Amanda Millar, who filled a casual vacancy for Northern Victoria region in the state upper house in August 2013 but failed to win re-election in November 2014; and Karina Okotel, a legal aid lawyer.
• Labor’s preselection in Fremantle will be conducted over two days on Sunday, when a ballot of local members determining 25% of the total result will be held, and Monday, when the rest is to be determined at a meeting of state executive. The two nominees are Josh Wilson, chief-of-staff to outgoing member Melissa Parke and the local deputy mayor, and Chris Brown, a Maritime Union of Australia organiser and former wharfie. Observers say that Wilson will dominate the local party ballot, but factional arrangements are likely to tip the balance in Brown’s favour at state executive. The winner will face recently preselected Greens candidate Kate Davis, solicitor for tenants’ rights organisation Tenancy WA.
• Tim Hammond has been preselected without opposition to succeed Alannah MacTiernan as Labor’s candidate in Perth. Hammond is a barrister specialising in representing asbestos disease victims, one of the party’s national vice-presidents, and a member of the Right. It appears that the Brand preselection will go the same way, with no other contenders standing in the way of Madeleine King, chief operating officer of the international policy think tank Perth USAsia Centre. Other confirmed Labor candidates in winnable seats are Matt Keogh in Burt, a commercial lawyer and president of the WA Law Society, who ran unsuccessfully at the Canning by-election in September; Anne Azza Aly in Cowan, a counter-terrorism expert at Curtin University and founder of People Against Violent Extremism (as seen here last week in Seat of the Week); Tammy Solonec in Swan, an indigenous lawyer; and Bill Leadbetter in Hasluck, executive director of an obstetric practice and occasional history academic. Aly and Solonec both have a past with the Greens, Aly having been endorsed as a candidate for the 2007 federal election before withdrawing from the race, and Solonec having held an unwinnable spot on an upper house ticket at the 2013 state election.
• The New South Wales Liberals are preparing to determine their Parramatta preselection through a trial plebiscite of local party members of more than two years’ standing. A push to make such ballots the norm was rejected at the party’s state conference in October, to the chagrin of the religious Right faction in particular, but a compromise deal backed by Mike Baird has allowed for trials to be held in a small number of federal and state electorates over the coming years. Kylie Adoranti of the Parramatta Advertiser reports 278 local members are eligible to participate, together with the members of the state executive and further representatives of the state council and the Prime Minister, collectively accounting for 28 votes. Nominees include current Parramatta councillor Jean Pierre Abood; former Parramatta councillor Andrew Bide; Charles Camenzuli, a structural engineer and building consultant who was the party’s candidate in 2010, and also sought preselection unsuccessfully in 2013; and Felicity Finlay, who also contested preselection in 2013, and appears to be a school teacher.
• Labor’s national executive has taken over the preselection process in the New South Wales seats of Barton and Hunter, initiating a process that will be resolved on Friday. The beneficiary in Barton will be the state’s outgoing Deputy Opposition Leader, Linda Burney. National executive will also determine her successor in the state seat of Canterbury, where a by-election now looms. In Hunter, Joel Fitzgibbon is to be confirmed as candidate for a seat that effectively merges his existing seat of Hunter with Charlton, which has been decommissioned in the redistribution. The intervention enforces a deal in which Hunter remains secure for the Right, who have been frozen out in Barton by the endorsement of the Left-aligned Burney.
• Labor in New South Wales also has normal preselection processes in train for ten other seats, including two in the Hunter region: Shortland, where Jill Hall is retiring, and Paterson, which the redistribution has transformed from Liberal to marginal Labor. Shortland looks set to be the new home for Pat Conroy, whose existing seat of Charlton has, as noted above, been rolled together with Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter. Conroy says he insisted on facing a rank-and-file ballot. Nominees in Paterson include Meryl Swanson, a local radio presenter, and Robert Roseworne, decribed by the ABC as a “Port Stephens community campaigner”. Both preselections are scheduled to be resolved the weekend after next.
• Nationals MP John Cobb has announced he will not contest the next election, having been member for Parkes from 2001 to 2007, and Calare henceforth. The front-runner to succeed him as Nationals candidate in Calare appears to be Andrew Gee, member for the state seat of Orange, although media reports suggest opponents may include Wellington councillor Alison Conn, Bathurst businessman Sam Farraway, Orange councillor Scott Munro, Bathurst mayor Gary Rush, Lithgow councillor Peter Pilbeam and Bathurst region farmer Paul Blanch, who was the Liberal candidate in 2004.
zoomster
[ I’m actually trying to credit the Greens with some intelligence here. ]
I think I’m beginning to see the problem …
Here Here Steelydan
It is incredibly important that news reporters report every fact of a story that they can verify.
Even if that involves reporting the ethnicity of criminals.
Those that would argue otherwise in here are in favour of the media using selective reporting to prosecute the ideals and policy that they support. Anything that threatens their stand they are deathly afraid of.
Ignorance, and keeping people ignorant is never the answer and should not be done.
The Australian population should be trusted to handle ‘the facts’ in a grown up matter.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has hit back at his critics today, going on the record to outline his Government’s agenda.
“We will make a stand on marriage equality, on tackling climate change and protecting the values of multicultural Australia,” stated Mr Turnbull.
“This is what I believe in, and this will be the focus of the Government I lead.”
In his address to the National Press Club, Prime Minister Turnbull was challenged by the press gallery on how he would implement his agenda.
“Well you also have to be realistic, I mean if a vocal minority of the public, or indeed any well-organised lobby or community group, or a significant faction within the Coalition, or even if an Alan Jones or Ray Hadley opposes what we have proposed, I would more than happily abandon each and every initiative,” the PM conceded.
When asked what differentiates the Turnbull Government from the Abbot led Government, Mr Turnbull highlighted that actions speak louder than words, and proceeded to walk past a table of unpeeled hole onions without eating a single one.
http://www.thefaultreport.com.au/politic/pm-declares-i-will-make-a-stand-for-what-i-believe-in-unless-you-disagree/
If you disagree with the above consider this… if ethnicity is not relevant to crime then why would religion be?
Imagine if our news sources had chosen not to report of child abuse amongst the clergy but instead for the last 30 years had reported it as “a man in Ballarat has been charged with 300 sexual offences against children” no mention that he was a priest, or in a gang of priests engaged in the abuse. Would we have ever got a Royal Commission if that was the case?
LGH and steelydan
The police have revised the number down to 30 from 200 and have said African descent. This at a live presser. The African comment was because of a specific question by a member of the media.
Therefore its the police that have not been identifying the ethnicity of the brawlers not the media. You have no facts to back up your argument here.
All you have is some media are jumping to conclusions based on information they have received which may turn out to be false. Its happened before. The ABC has always been more reluctant to jump ahead of police statements in this area
Guytaur
[Thats what an open ticket is. A deal only comes into it when there is no open ticket but instead preferences are directed.]
So according to you the Greens could agree to guarantee an open ticket in certain lower house seats in return for getting LNP preferences elsewhere but this would not constitute a deal.
To me that seems bizarre but hey…I am not a Green.
[Former federal MP Stephen Smith has confirmed he will try to topple WA Labor leader Mark McGowan if asked to do so by the party.]
You really can’t be that stupid, it is going to make news stories quite long if they are to include every fact that can be verified.
[There is a broad range of views as to the time of the accident, some say it was 4:41, others are convinced it was 4:42, there were several bystanders who suggested it might have been 4:43. Those bystanders were named Joe 1 Joe 2 Joe 3 Joe 4, they live at (list addresses).
There was a cool breeze blowing on a 27 degree day, although some suggested there had been a brief pause in the breeze at the time of the incident.
The victim was wearing a supre top and heels from Windsor smith, that had been purchased online at a 40% discount …]
Are you smart enough to start spotting the problem, I doubt it.
Strewth! – I should take the advice to not feed the trolls more seriously. I appear to have unleashed a real loon.
JW
The default policy is open ticket. To direct preferences is where a deal is made not the reverse you are trying to paint it.
Why are the Greens not doing everything in their power, including preferencing in their HTV cards, to get the candidates that most reflect their views elected?
Is it the same group of people who blame Labor every time ALP preferences don’t go their way in the Senate?
Apparently Miranda believes Turnbull is implementing one of “Baldrick’s Cunning Plans” to seize control of the country.
I like the new acronym of del-cons to describe deluded conservatives.
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/mirandadevine/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/side_tracked_right_missing_mals_plot/
Smith to challenge McGowan.
The stupidity of doing this through the media rather than behind closed doors…dysfunctions of Labor revisited.
Shame on them…
Read in our local Sunday Times that Smith says he is ‘up for it’ if asked by the Labor machine to stand for leader.
While I tend to take what is written in this rag with some degree of scepticism, it would seem that the challenge by Smith and his supporters might have some legs.
On the face of it, Smith is too experienced at both winning and losing with Labor not have have acquired some experience of what is necessary to get Labor over the line. On the other hand, McGowan has done the hard slog for the past number of years – having to fight the mining boom largesse from Barnett on the one hand, and unpopular Federal Labor on the other.
However, as Labor is extra good at political execution – remembering Bill Hayden being axed so that Bob H could win the Drover’s Dog election – what is happening in the WA is not unique.
Up until today, I though the Smith move was just a beat up but now I am not so sure.
I suspect Smith might have the numbers but whether he will make any difference as leader – that is a winning leader – is another matter.
Still 12 months to go yet….a long, long time in politics.
LGH
It’s impractical to report every detail.
mimhoff
The Greens profess to trust the voters as to their reason for that policy decision and openly acknowledge that cost.
Their complaints about the current Senate system is that it forces them to do preference deals when they would rather not.
GG
[ I like the new acronym of del-cons to describe deluded conservatives. ]
Ha! I like it. Does that mean we can call deluded Abbott supporters “The Deltones”?
On the Labor leadership in WA.
They are doing it a year ahead of the election in opposition not in government.
Makes all the difference in the world to chances of electability as long as the party unites behind which ever leader wins the vote.
[It’s the Alice in Wonderland approach to political debate. The words mean exactly what he wants them to. Nothing more. Nothing less.]
More precisely, its the Humpty Dumpty approach. And we all know what happened to him!
GG
So Miranda Devine reckons that Turnbull’s cunning plan is to seize the progressive agenda of this country together with the Greens. Is she taking the piss or on some heavy duty shit?
[http://www.thefaultreport.com.au/politic/pm-declares-i-will-make-a-stand-for-what-i-believe-in-unless-you-disagree/]
Far far less satirical than most of the guff written about Turnbull over the years.
[ The ABC has always been more reluctant to jump ahead of police statements in this area]
Clearly Steelydan believes that it is not enough for shock jocks and the Murdoch press to foment racial violence – the ABC must do it too.
It is open to the Greens to offer the guarantee of an open ticket in particular seats in exchange for getting preferences from the LNP in other seats. If the Greens do this they have entered a deal!! No amount of obfuscation on your part can hide that.
[Far far less satirical than most of the guff written about Turnbull over the years.
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/mirandadevine/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/side_tracked_right_missing_mals_plot/%5D
exhibit A
ratsak
I am not sure what to make of Devine’s latest utterings
The position(s) being taken by Waffles has a long history:
http://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/05/09/groucho-principles/
Copied from facebook (the page belongs to a union organiser) —
[This week is critical to workers and their unions, it is also likely to determine when we have an election and the type of election that will be.
There are just three more scheduled sitting days for the Senate before the budget – Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. There are three laws Turnbull wants passed:
– changes to Senate voting
– the ABCC
– the Registered Organisations Bill
The Greens have negotiated the Senate voting changes with timing that allows Turnbull to call a DD election with the new voting laws in place. If they moved the date of implementation by just one day, the new voting laws would come in, but would not apply for a DD.
The cross bench Senators who have previously opposed the two anti-worker, anti-union laws now believe their chances of being re-elected with the new Senate voting laws and a DD is significantly reduced. Turnbull is using this to mount pressure on them to pass the anti-worker laws.
The Greens know that the chances of these laws being passed has gone from zero to possible because of their deal with Turnbull on voting changes. We want them to take action to fix this by moving the date of implementation by one day. Doing nothing is aiding and abetting Turnbull’s attempts to get these laws through.]
The part i am finding weird by Miranda Devine, is that Turnbull is looking at a power sharing deal with the Greens. Really? I would have thought that Turnbull wants to use them to get the senate changed and ensure a victory at next election. Nothing more nothing less
P1,
The deltones do a passing version of Great Pretender.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipb7D-RacpI&index=98&list=PLGMRvM7mw3XnVxI-0eca2XhCgdujJrp6P
The gamble with Smith as WA leader is how voters react to his time as Defence Minister if like me they think he was an excellent Minister who enabled his top brass to transform the culture away from bastardisation and bullying to a large degree.
You can buy planes guns and ships but if you have no one to operate them you are lost and military numbers were a problem.
Smith fixed this and showed real steel in doing so. I have no doubt he will make an excellent Premier if he can win the campaign.
jw
No its open to the votes of the local branch. Try applying that approach to Labor preferences and see how long open ticket lasts as a deal
[I am not sure what to make of Devine’s latest utterings]
If you start by eliminating ‘sense’ then it will be easier to make something of anything Devine says.
mimhoff
The problem with your comment about candidates reflecting green views is that it would exclude Danby in Melbourne ports, Bullock in WA and probably Feeney in Batman.
In all honesty Kelly o’Dwyer would be closer to a Green than Danby. Not too sure about Corgi Bernadi but it might be a close run thing (OK maybe not the Corgi)
ratsak at 2473
The sentence that grabbed my attention from Devine’s rant was this:
[If Turnbull sells out the Liberal Party to the Greens he will return as a prime minister who owes nothing to the party’s shattered conservatives]
Now, this might be less unremarkable if she hadn’t said this a few lines earlier, with obvious approval:
[It is not flattering to Abbott. But it does explain why he lost his job. It wasn’t the media who voted him out, or any of the scapegoats he and a dwindling band of delusional conservatives rail against.
It was, as John Howard put it last week, those in “authority” — the party room, each member representing a mini-kingdom of Australians — who voted 54-44 to remove Abbott.
“The people who have the authority to make the decision, made the decision and they clearly voted in a new leader,” Howard said.
“They are not going to review their decision.”]
Like, you know, Waffles is so Machiavellian that before his party knows it the Greens MPs and Senators will be invited into the Liberal Party room to cast their votes for the leader.
The difference between Devine and us is that we write our internally illogical tosh for nothing. Devine gets big bucks for doing no better.
Insiders were critical of Windsor going to Canberra. Windsor responds.
[Tony Windsor @TonyHWindsor · 4h4 hours ago
@InsidersABC My intention to stand in New England was announced on Tamworth ABC radio with @kelfuller 30 mins prior to Canberra announcement
Tony Windsor @TonyHWindsor · 48s49 seconds ago
Political competition payments update : Joyce announces $600000 for bridge in New England …more to come , will keep you informed.]
guytaur
And if Head Office tells the local branch it is strategic to direct preferences, the local branch is very, very extremely likely to vote exactly the way HO wants them to.
TPOF
Yep. The latest illogical tosh by her is up there with the best of them
[The problem with your comment about candidates reflecting green views is that it would exclude Danby in Melbourne ports, Bullock in WA and probably Feeney in Batman.]
Bullock was a Senator who won on above-the-line votes.
The Greens came second in Batman so they need to get Liberal preferences if they want to win over Feeney.
In Melbourne Ports, they should make a choice: if they really don’t like Danby they can preference against him. If they want Labor in general to win government, then preferencing for him gives them a better chance.
TPOF,
Obviously, Devine is concerned that any new unholy alliances may lead to dancing in the Liberal Party room.
If we do not have a DD election it will be for one reason only: that the polling is not going the government’s way.
zoomster
Yes I agree which is where Di Natalie saying no deal on Lateline is crystal clear.
Please note I am talking about up to this point. I am not predicting what the Greens will do at the election in every seat.
All my comments have been the statements that a deal has been made are a lie. The future as always is an open book
zoomster
I should add my prediction on the preference deal at the election will be more of what we have seen in the past but with less deals done in the Senate.
That much is clear.
Don’t know anything about McGowan, but Smith is a winner.
Peter Brent has written on the Drum that the Greens better prospect is Wills. He make interesting point that David Feeney will likely benefit from incumbency and the sophomore surge, that he didn’t enjoy at the last election. Making Batman for the Greens possibly out of reach.
Wills doesn’t have an incumbent, but even then all cards would have to fall right for the Greens to win the seat. And that might make it harder considering the environment is likely for the Labor primary vote will be improving at this election.
New England voters will be force-fed with pork.
I presume the Party reckons McGowan should have had Labor in an unassailable position by now given the poor performance of the Barnett Government.
Smith has a high profile from his years as a Federal MHR and Minister.
Could be the answer.
Is McGowan from the left?
William
Have you seen this from Bernie Sanders? It is just amazing and I hope he wins.
It is very long but great!
http://www.ky3.com/video-photo/live
David,
Labor have pre-selected an outstanding candidate for Wills in Peter Khallil.
The best way to beat all comers is to put the best people in Parliament
Zoomster
[And if Head Office tells the local branch it is strategic to direct preferences, the local branch is very, very extremely likely to vote exactly the way HO wants them to.]
Agreed. Similarly, if Head Office tells the local branch it is strategic to have an open ticket, the local branch is very, very extremely likely to vote exactly the way HO wants them to.
If there’s one saving grace in Labor’s backflip on Senate voting reform it’s that they are venting their petulance and self-indulgence on a topic that voters don’t follow closely. They can afford to be doofuses when few are watching. Maybe it is helpful to them to find an outlet for unhealthy impulses.
I don’t think anyone thinks that Smith would not do an admirable job as leader of State Labor, but the question is, now that McGowan and his team have done the hard slog, whether he, McGowan, is entitled to another tilt at becoming Premier.
Perhaps the hard heads feel his last go was enough. However, he had a bit of a tough road, not helped it might be added, and pointed out by others, with the turmoil Federal Labor was in. Smith as part of this.
McGowan has had Big Kim come out on his side but just how much influence he now wields after having lived the good life in the US for a few years, is a moot point.