BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition

No signs of the trend away from the Coalition abating in the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, following a particularly weak result in this week’s Essential Research poll.

The only new poll this week was the regular result from Essential Research, but it was enough to contribute to another sizeable cut in the Coalition two-party lead for the fifth week in a row. Sharp-eyed observers will note that the state seat tallies now account for redistribution changes, which have added a seat in Western Australia and removed one in New South Wales. These changes have seen the abolition of a Labor-held seat in the Hunter region of New South Wales, and the creation of the notionally Liberal seat of Burt in Perth. However, the overall effect is favourable to Labor since three seats in New South Wales – Barton, Paterson and Dobell – have become notionally Labor on the new boundaries, with respective margins of 5.2%, 1.3% and 0.4%. The swing currently being in Labor’s favour, the model rates them a certainty in Barton and better than evens in Paterson and Dobell, and more likely than not to win to win Burt.

The upshot of all this is that BludgerTrack has the Coalition down three seats this week in New South Wales and steady everywhere else, whereas Labor is credited with two gains in New South Wales and one in Western Australia. Note that the national and state-level figures on the chart showing seat change since 2013 will no longer align, since the baseline for the national result is as per the election (Coalition 90, Labor 55), whereas those for the state numbers are post-redistribution (Coalition 27, Labor 20 in New South Wales; Coalition 13, Labor 3 in Western Australia). The post-redistribution margins are as determined by myself, following very similar methodology to Antony Green. A full accounting of the calculations can be found here for New South Wales, and here for Western Australia.

Other news:

• A ReachTEL poll of 712 respondents in New England, “obtained by Guardian Australia” (who commissioned it is not clear), suggests Barnaby Joyce would have a very serious fight on his hands if former member Tony Windsor sought to run again as an independent, which he is neithe ruling in or out. The numbers cited are 39.5% for Joyce, 32.2% for Windsor, 11.2% for Labor and 4.6% for the Greens, with 5.1% undecided.

• The mass exodus of Labor’s Western Australian federal MPs continued this week, with Senator Joe Bullock announcing his decision to retire in protest over the party’s support for same-sex marriage. Bill Shorten promptly announced that Bullock’s vacancy would be filled by Pat Dodson, a leader of the Yawuru people from Broome and former chair of the Council for Aboriginal Reconciliation. This scotched the ambitions of Louise Pratt, who was famously relegated to second position on the Labor ticket behind Bullock, then defeated at the April 2014 Senate election re-run following a collapse in Labor support. Many attributed this outcome to derogatory comments Bullock made about Pratt while speaking at a Christian function, which became public the day before the election.

• Labor has another indigenous parliamentarian lined up in the form of Linda Burney, who has held the seat of Canterbury in the New South Wales state parliament in 2003, and served as Deputy Opposition Leader since the defeat of 2011. Burney is running for preselection in Barton, which encompasses about half of her current electorate. The seat is currently held for the Liberals by Nick Varvaris, but Labor has been heavily favoured in the redistribution, which adds inner city territory around Marrickville and removes Liberal-voting Sans Souci. Burney has resigned as member for Canterbury to contest the preselection, which will result in a by-election.

• Mal Brough’s announcement that he will not seek another term has opened a Liberal National Party vacancy in his Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher. The party’s state executive had been withholding endorsement of Brough’s preselection pending the outcome of an Australian Federal Police investigation into his role in the leaking the diary of Peter Slipper, the then Speaker and his predecessor as member for Fisher. It was promptly suggested that Jarrod Bleijie, the controversial Newman government Attorney-General and member for the local electorate of Kawana, might be interested in the seat, but he has since ruled himself out. Amy Remeikis of Fairfax reports the seat might be of interest to James McGrath, who ran against Brough for the preselection in 2013 and has since found a place in the Senate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,683 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 54
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  1. http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2016/mar/03/turnbull-government-seizes-new-negative-gearing-report-politics-live?CMP=share_btn_tw

    [The Labor leader Bill Shorten has stopped to talk to reporters after the breakfast to sass the BIS Shrapnel report, a report he says was compiled before the ALP compiled its policy.

    Q: Where’s Labor’s modelling on its policy?

    This issue has been modelled to death.

    (It hasn’t, actually.)

    Q: Why don’t you fight the scare campaign with your own modelling?

    We are fighting the scare campaign every day, and I’m glad you recognise its a scare campaign.]

  3. And of course Nine is following the memo.

    [Nine News Australia Verified account 
    ‏@9NewsAUS
    New modelling of Labor’s proposed crackdown on negative gearing predicts damning impact on house values. #9News ]

  4. Lizzie

    whilst the govt is at war with itself, news ltd and their fellow travellers find a way to distract. How unsurprisement

  5. Morning all and thanks BK for today’s efforts.

    [whilst the govt is at war with itself, news ltd and their fellow travellers find a way to distract. How unsurprisement]

    Yep, so predictable. Has anyone mentioned yet that Labor manages to seamlessly dump a low quality Senator not even halfway through his first term and switch him out for a star candidate the very next day with no concern trolling from within its own ranks? Yet the govt goes from chaos to chaos daily with tension between the PM and Treasurer evident for all to see and Abbott sniping from the sidelines and leaking against his own mob?

    Surely that should say it all about the state of play with both parties.

  7. BCassidy will also be doing nis segment with Faine before 10 am. Will it be chaos and dysfunction from him or nothing to see here move along…….

  8. [Surely that should say it all about the state of play with both parties.]

    Fess it also highlights why ALP is coming out with fully explored and costed policies now.

    Abbott & crew knew govt would fall into their laps so did nothing to prepare to ACTUALLY GOVERN. And it shows.

    Labor will be prepared and the Australian public will be more than aware of the whats, whys & wherefores of everything Labor plans

  11. [Q: Labor not surprisingly has rejected your findings they say this isn’t real modelling and this is not modelling based on any Labor policy.

    Kim Hawtrey

    Well the report was written over the last few months before Labor released its policy and it wasn’t directed at any particular policy at all and in fact we’ve made no recommendations, our job was simply to chase the effects on the economy by crunching the numbers and looking at what might happen if you did this kind of change.]

    So what did they model? Has anyone seen the actual report? It doesn’t seem to be available on BIS’ website. So where is it? What’s the bet they’ve modelled a complete withdrawal of negative gearing and/or no grandfathering.

    Could be some very stoopid looking peeps when it’s revealed.

  12. zoomster

    At this time of the year ducks are moulting. Ducks moult all their flight feathers at the same time. Depending on the stage of plumage regrowth they can flap across the water but they cannot fly. Their only recourse when in danger is to dive to safety.

    The duck calls in your case were almost certainly distress calls.

    From a duckocentric POV, the duck was fighting for its life.

    Further, such ducks are called ‘flappers’ and are, for hunters with shot guns, sitting ducks.

    That the official duck hunting season coincides with peak moult is a never, ever mentioned by either the noble duck shooters or the various governments which provide official government regulatory cover for the ‘sporting’ equivalent of shooting fish in a barrel.

  13. The seat tally is showing the Liberals gaining a seat in Victoria, I would assume that is Chisholm. That could be attributed to Anna Burke retiring and it is naturally Liberal leaning (i’m actually surprised she held it for as long as she did). If you look at the state electorates which covers it such as Forrest Hill, Mount Waverly, Burwood and Box Hill are all Liberal electorates, the only plausible reason they held it would be the anchor of the southern suburbs in the electorate where the Labor vote is strong, in the suburbs of Oakleigh and Clayton.

  14. The BIS report is probably in relation to the Robert Ludlum/Greens policy of abolishing Negative Gearing in its entirety. Which I believe was the Green’s policy until they released a new policy on the 16th Feb this year. But only after the ALP released it’s policy.

    Tom.

  16. It’s pretty clear that Abbott’s natural instinct for wrecking and destabilizing knows no bounds.

    Without a weak Labor to destroy, he goes for his own party.

    What a complete sociopath this guy is.

  18. Boer

    I would have jumped in sooner if I’d thought the duck was in any danger at all. He could have easily done what his mate did and hide in the very thick reed bed at the edge of the lagoon, which is what I thought he would do the first time he dived.

  19. The thing that bothered me when I read the reports on the BIS Shrapnel report last night was that BIS Shrapnel is a very serious company in the property research area, and yet the report was patently absurd in the context of Labor’s policy.

    Now we find that the report is being misrepresented by news outlets looking to either undermine Labor’s policy or just after cheap ‘Shock! Horror!’ headlines. I wonder if the company will do some serious work to reclaim its reputation. It’s already started with Hawtrey discussing the report, but it may have to do a lot more work to explain clearly that its report was based on assumptions that did not mirror Labor’s policy in very significant areas.

  21. Boerwar

    I bow to your greater expertise on ducks. We used to have a constant population of 12+ wood ducks, but now I rarely see them. One pair of Black Ducks bred on the dam this year, but that was all.

  24. [BB

    One for you. Note that the debris is going to Malaysia… as if we can trust the Malaysians to do the right thing with any debris…]

    What stuck me was that it was found by an American beachcomber (or similar) who just happened to be prospecting near a sand bankin Mozambique, and that the reports are coming from “US Officials”.

  30. fess

    I managed to only hear some of it. I will link the podcast later. The white paper leak was discussed. Said that the Liberal MPs are saying openly that Abbott is doing a Rudd by undermining Turnbull.

  32. lizzie

    Waterbird populations for many species are at historically low levels because of a mixture of drought, irrigation off-take and allowing farming interests in states like New South Wales ‘manage’ duck populations.

    Woodies are grazers (more like geese than dabbling ducks) and prefer a fresh green pick if they can find it.
    It is why they are often seen in urban surrounds: they like the grass tips which sprouts fresh shoots after mowing.

    So if the grass around your dam has grown lanky or has died off, the ducks might have moved, literally, to greener pastures.

    The other possible reason is that, since they roost on the ground, they need a high spot with clear lines of sight all round – like a dam wall.
    If there has been shrubby growth or lank grass growth on the dam wall, they Woodies may have lost a vital element of safety while roosting.

  33. ratsak@61: I have been trying to track down the BIS Shrapnel report all morning, but so far without success. There’s no link to it on the BIS Shrapnel site that I can find.

    I have, however, been looking at the work of the McKell Institute

    http://mckellinstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/pdf/McKell_Negative-Gearing_A4_WEB.pdf

    http://mckellinstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/The-McKell-Institute-Switching-Gears-Addendum.pdf

    and the ANU Centre for Social Research and Modelling.

    http://rsss.anu.edu.au/node/235

    These are the reports to which Shorten and Bowen allude when they talk about their proposal having been “modelled to death”.

    But, as you will see from reading the linked documents,m neither McKell or the fledgling ANU Centre (which seems to be a sort of breakaway from NATSEM) have done any modelling whatsoever of the impact of changing negative gearing on the housing market. Their “modelling” (I wouldn’t really describe what McKell have done as modelling) is simply about impacts on tax revenue and the distribution of the tax burden across the population.

    So the BIS Shrapnel report would be interesting if we could get to see it. I notice that John Daly from the so-called think tank the Grattan Institute has been mouthing off at it this morning. Daly is not any sort of an economist, let alone an economic modeller, and surely there hasn’t been enough time for his institute to do a rigorous assessment of BIS Shrapnel’s work.

    I’d really like to see BIS Shrapnel’s report. Better still, I would like to see rigorous modelling undertaken by NATSEM, which is easily the premier economic modelling unit in Australia (in my view, slightly better these days than Treasury’s own internal unit).

    I am extremely disappointed that Labor did not prepare their policy in conjunction with commissioning modelling from NATSEM. Nobody could possibly accuse NATSEM of being a right-wing outfit. But they are rigorous and committed to the truth. Any policy designed to restrict negative gearing would be much, much better as a result of their input. Instead, Labor turned to opinionated talking heads like John Daly.

    I know that most posters on PB don’t care about these sorts of things, and respond simply by accusing me of being a Liberal or pro-negative gearing or self-interested or some such nonsense.

    But I think it’s a lost opportunity for Labor which could still come back to bite them before the story is done. It’s certainly not how the party of Hawke and Keating approached policy development.

    PS: One interesting thing I gleaned from the McKell report was that the 25,000 additional jobs supposedly created by restricting neg gearing to new construction was not a modelled outcome, but simply a posited “scenario”. If there’s anyone reading this who cares.

  37. [15.The BIS report is probably in relation to the Robert Ludlum/Greens policy of abolishing Negative Gearing in its entirety. Which I believe was the Green’s policy until they released a new policy on the 16th Feb this year. But only after the ALP released it’s policy.]

    What is the detail change in the green policy, perhaps they want to reverse the deductions claimed in the last 10 years.

  38. If the election were called today (my understanding is on any day up until next Tuesday), an election could be held on Saturday April 9. That’s two weeks after Easter but school holidays in most jurisdictions.

  40. lizzie
    [Cassidy – election July at the latest. Why would Turnbull let this chaos drag on any longer.]
    If he’s come to the conclusion that the coalition are going to lose anyway, may as well stretch out his time in the top job to the max.

  41. While hardly empirical, I have observed the change in visual representation of both sides of politics lately in things like news reports etc.

    Shorten starting to look positive and full of life, with the other ALP frontbenchers looking easily enthusiastic and behind him.

    Whereas Turnbull looks flustered and tired.

    As I said, not empirical and there’s still a long hurdle for Labor but a picture (or footage) says a thousand words and, right now, the contrast is starting to become startling.

  42. Bushfire Bill @ 66,

    It’s pretty clear that Abbott’s natural instinct for wrecking and destabilizing knows no bounds.

    Without a weak Labor to destroy, he goes for his own party.

    What a complete sociopath this guy is.

    Which, if you have looked at the photos of Abbott which I have linked to over the last couple of days, as a photographer yourself you would be able to see that that assumption is right on the money.

    It’s positively scary to see him unraveling publicly.

  43. Bushfire Bill@66

    It’s pretty clear that Abbott’s natural instinct for wrecking and destabilizing knows no bounds.

    Without a weak Labor to destroy, he goes for his own party.

    What a complete sociopath this guy is.

    Not just abbott either.

    There are a range of tories who either hate turnbull plus those who just want abbott back as leader. A moving feast as the hot air leaks from his poll results.

    abbott etc is being reported but the wider utter dysfunction, back stabbing and loathing across the coalition is the elephant in the room that few in the media are prepared to call out – so they just pretend its not their.

    An utterly piss weak effort by the media yet again – particularly in the run up to an election.

    Did taxpayers pay for the knees up last night, directly or indirectly ?

    If so how much ? Did the tories pay to use Parliament House and its facilities ?

  47. Boerwar@82

    [
    The other possible reason is that, since they roost on the ground, they need a high spot with clear lines of sight all round – like a dam wall.
    If there has been shrubby growth or lank grass growth on the dam wall, they Woodies may have lost a vital element of safety while roosting. ]

    The wood ducks at our place nest in trees – but when I had a floating island in the dam, they used to roost on that at night.

  48. KKeneally: I’ve been waiting for a lawyer to get to this – putting to Pell that belief in God is belief without evidence.

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