Essential Research: 50-50

The Essential Research rolling aggregate records an unusually sharp move away from the Coalition, and finds strong support for Senate reform legislation.

The normally placid Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a rare two-point shift on two-party preferred this week, which eliminates a settled 52-48 lead for the Coalition over previous weeks. Particularly remarkable is a three point increase in the Labor primary vote, from 35% to 38%, although the Coalition is down only one to 43%, and the Greens are steady on 10%. Also featured is a very detailed question on Senate reform, in which the legislation was explained to respondents in meticulous detail, producing a result of 53% approval and 16% disapproval. A question on election timing finds 56% wanting the election held later this year versus 23% who want it called early, although the distinction is an increasingly fine one. Also featured: most important election issues (health topping the list, followed by economic and cost-of-living concerns), best party to handle them (Labor for industrial relations and environment, Coalition for national security and the economy, although Labor has a slight lead on housing affordability) and perceptions of the parties as right or left wing (indicating Labor is seen as more centrist than the Coalition, although there is little sense that this has changed in recent years). This week’s poll was conducted online Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1017, with the voting intention numbers also including the survey results from the previous week’s poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,038 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

Comments Page 4 of 21
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  1. Sordid. Grubby. Tawdry.

    But above all stupid.

    Bernardi, Heffernan and Christensen must be pissing themselves laughing at how stupid the Greens Party is.

  2. Malcolm will only call a DD if it’s to has advantage to do so. By definition, that will be disadvantageous to Labor and the Greens. If Malcolm introduces an apparently unnecessary Supply Bill (we have supply till June 30) and demands it be passec immediately, Labor should defer it until the Senate next sits on June 20. The voters don’t want an early election.

  3. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 31s31 seconds ago

    Howard says the principle beneficiary of the changes to senate voting will be the Greens. Probably not an endorsement they want. #abc730

    abc730 ‏@abc730 24s24 seconds ago

    John Howard: Double dissolutions are more likely to produce minor parties than normal Senate elections – people should keep in mind #abc730

  5. Dio, 154

    Most likely crossbenchers that don’t want the reforms to be passed. Leyonhjelm seems to be the sort, he’s really passionate on the topic.

  8. LOL:

    Barrie Cassidy ‏@barriecassidy 2m2 minutes ago

    John Howard says Donald Trump is “manifestly unsuited” to be president of the United States. #abc730 #auspol

  10. Zoidloid@158,

    Even a broken clock is correct twice per day.

    But, rather than me try to explain, let me reproduce Crikey’s editorial comment for today, which (spoiler) translates as NO REPUGS SHOULD BE LET ANYWHERE NEAR THE TOP JOB!!

    [ The worst Republican candidate

    Tomorrow morning, our time, Americans Republicans in 11 states will go to the polls and cast their votes for the man they want to represent them in the fight for the presidency.

    There has been a lot of talk about one particular candidate, whose views are abhorrent and whose personal attacks on his rivals are intensifying. He has a very hardline anti-immigration policy, saying: “If we do not know who you are, and we do not know why you are coming when I am president, you are not getting into the United States of America.” He’s a climate sceptic: “I do not believe that human activity is causing these dramatic changes to our climate the way these scientists are portraying it.” He wants religious-based organisations to be exempt from funding birth control. And he recently implied a rival was not fit to lead because he might have pissed his pants and probably had a small penis.

    His name is Marco Rubio.

    There’s another Republican candidate you might have heard of. He also has a hardline anti-immigration policy, promising to deport undocumented workers and their children, and he wants to build a giant wall all the way along the Mexican border. He doesn’t believe in abortion in any circumstances and wants to shut down Planned Parenthood, which delivers healthcare to millions of American women every year. He wants to unravel President Barack Obama’s Iran deal, which prevents Iran from developing nuclear weapons. He opposes not only same-sex marriage, but also same-sex civil unions. And he accused a rival of “business dealings with the mob, with the mafia”.

    His name is Ted Cruz.

    Donald Trump is not the anomaly for the Republican Party; he’s the status quo, with worse hair and a louder mouth. No matter who wins tomorrow’s primaries, it’s clear who the loser will be.}

  11. [ Not do anything to actively facilitate a DD would include passing interim supply wouldn’t it Richard? You would think so.

    Looks like the DD might be off again folks. ]

    I reckon by now they almost HAVE to bring the Budget forward if they want a DD. They could then bolt those bills through to the Senate where they get rejected, and then dissolve both houses, maybe before Shorten gets his reply speech in?

    The Budget Bills would never be DD triggers as there is not the time for that, BUT, the Libs would probably fight a campaign giving the impression that they were as get away with that premise, as most punters seem to have no idea how the system actually works and the Libs place a lot of reliance and electoral hopes on how stupid people can be.

  12. Bw

    [Here’s your problem:]

    Yep, I knew that.

    It will be interesting what the Italian company comes up with for the long term. If you want some geotech engineering done the Italians are as good as you can get.

  13. Buggar – curly brace at end of quoted comment, means that it is not so obvious which bit is actually quoted. It is that between [and }

    Also, I had to add the word “buggar” to the dictionary . It was not recognised. Obviously not an Australian dictionary.

  15. CTaR1

    Ah.

    Draining all or part of the dam sounds like a useful first step.

    The Iraqi Minister for Water reassured everyone with the view that there is only a 1:1000 chance of the dam blowing.

    He forebore from specifying a time frame for his risk analysis.

  16. adam abdool @132:

    True. A vaguely competent rightwing government should have easily been able to negotiate legislation with the current crossbench. That the Abbott and Turnbull government haven’t managed it is a massive fail on their part, and they only have themselves to blame.

    But while I’m sure getting a more compliant crossbench is the Coalition’s motivation for persuing these reforms, whether this or that party will be advantaged or disadvantaged by removing Group Voting Tickets is rather irrelevant compared to ensuring a more democratic system in which voters ctually control where their preferences go instead too-clever-by-half backroom dealers.

    As quite meticulously explained by Kevin Bonham, elections held under the new rules probably won’t elect much less crossbenchers, but rather just result in a crossbench that actually has some measure of support in the electorate.

    JimmyDoyle @138:

    I don’t doubt that every party’s position on this issue is motivated by self-interest. But that is – IMO – irrelevent as to the virtues (or lack-thereof) of the proposed changes.

    Additionally, I don’t think the Coalition are going to see much of any advantage here – and if they think the reforms will give them a Senate majority, they are deluded.

    I actually agree on your second point – “Just Vote 1” campaigns should be banned.

  17. A general comment:

    The Essential poll showing TPP of 50:50, confirming that Newspoll was not rogue, has unleashed a new era of cooperation on this blog between Labor/ Green/ Labor Left/ Labor Right/ Labor Unaligned (my mob).

    Long may it continue. I think now we can scent that with effort, we can get Australia on a progressive path again, and argue over the spoils once we actually are the victors.

  18. BushfireBill

    Alan Jones and Richo just gave Turnbull an almighty serve on Sky. If that’s how he speaks on 2GB his RW audience must be in turmoil.

    Shorten on shortly.

  19. Bw

    [He forebore from specifying a time frame for his risk analysis.]

    I bet he did!

    Draining has big implications for agriculture there. Most irrigation in Iraq is from the dam.

  21. 100
    Pegasus

    lol
    lol
    lol

    This deal – this bungled deal – is aimed to securing a G balance of power. It will most likely fail abysmally.

  22. The government must turn to Pyne for PM and Bishop as his deputy. If they don’t do this on the last day of the current sitting they’re finished

  23. BH

    [Alan Jones and Richo just gave Turnbull an almighty serve on Sky. If that’s how he speaks on 2GB his RW audience must be in turmoil.]
    Again !!! A few days back Jones got stuck into the gubby re Lone Pine and said nice things about Shorten, even quoted him. Grim if Jones’ crew are after you and you are a Liberal

  24. CTar1 @137

    [I think the most that can be said is that voters support change to Senate voting. But 99.9 of them don’t understand how it currently works – me included.

    I doubt that even the majority of Senators understand it.]

    Can’t disagree with any of that.

    Which – IMO – is all the more reason for change. I just can’t fathom why such a needlessly complicated, unrepresentative and easily manipulated system was ever introduced in the first place, when they could have solved the problem of high informal votes with the far similar and more democratic solution of allowing above the line preferences.

  28. “ALP seem to me to have played the politics of this well and are leaving it up to the Greens and Libs to be the potential losers

    What a hollow and cynical political strategy – the party first, voter empowerment and a step towards improved democratic processes a distant second.”

    @Pegasus 100

    Yeah Pegasus but the Greens hands are not clean in this either. The Greens for 20 years have wedge Labor on issues, to take votes off Labor’s primary vote so they could go to the Greens. It was no clearer when Labor policy into 2007 election suggested a 60% reduction of emissions by 2050, which Bob Brown refused to back instead trumping it with 80% by 2050. All Labor now is doing is turning the tables.

  31. [177
    WeWantPaul

    Abc reporting Joe bullock to quit politics! There is a god!]

    Perhaps Louise Pratt will get the guernsey. She was next -ranked on the ticket.

  32. A comment on. Pell’s evidence today. Anyone who understands catholic theology (twisted as it is IMO) could appreciate the reasons why Pell might intentionally lie or not reveal evidence without any regret.

    Catholic theology has a doctrine of “scandal” that includes causing people to lose faith. So revealing information that would damage people’s faith (in the catholic church) could be considered scandal.

    Catholic theology then goes on to say that the “right to truth” is not absolute, and things like scandal might justify secrecy. Pretty obvious where this leads. People like Pell can rationalise in their own mind that they are doing the “right” thing in not admitting facts that might embarrass them. Also very handy if the concealed facts would lead to charges against them!

    You can see the “official” definitions here:
    http://www.vatican.va/archive/ENG0015/_P8L.HTM#31
    http://www.vatican.va/archive/ENG0015/_P80.HTM
    http://www.vatican.va/archive/ENG0015/ZS.HTM

    Bottom line is that anyone who imagines a bishop or cardinal would not lie through their teeth to protect themselves or their employer is a fool.

  33. Quite a long time ago I was standing on the fringe of a group of Liberal party types – most of them at the “wetter” end of the spectrum. Malcolm was flouncing around on the TV looking self important not doing much of any important. They no doubt forgot I was there because the not-veiled-at-all contempt in their conversation was quite vicious.

    They’re the wing of the party that are supposed to be supporting him! Imagine what the others must say!

    Those who have had the most to do with him had him summed up a long time ago. The only reason he got into leadership (twice) was because they thought he might get some votes from the middle ground. If he hasn’t got that he hasn’t got anything.

  34. Douglas and Milko

    I also appreciated your post. My childhood was at the height of the Catholic Protestant wars so I was forbidden to play with Catholic kids down the street.
    I loved them tho. They’re religion was more fun than my straight laced Proddy one. The priests gave my friends’ fathers money to put on the horses, they shared a port or whisky and told jokes. It must have been a fairly relaxed Parish.

    In comparison my Church banned us from going to dances so we were always sneaking into them. It put me off religion and it never again entered my life once I was married. Marrying a Welsh atheist helped too 🙂

  35. If there wasn’t that despicable media campaign against B Bishop taking her little helicopter trip, the Libs could now be turning to her as PM with Bishop as deputy, but there is probably little chance of that now

  36. Mal Brough as PM with J Bishop deputy could’ve been a contender if bloody Slipper didn’t keep his diary where anyone could steal it

  38. [‪#‎BREAKING‬: WA Labor Senator Joe Bullock has announced he is quitting politics over his party’s position on same sex marriage. (from the ABC Facebook page)

    Over marriage equality of all things.

  39. Poriti

    Both Richo and Jones were strongly against Turnbull re Lone Pine.

    Both letting Bill speak without aggresive interruption in the Leigh Sales mould. Surprising really altho Jones might still get heavy.

    Great joy at Bullock retiring because he doesn’t like Labor’s SSM policy. He is doing the right thing.

  40. Yes paaptsef, but whichever vaguely-moderate person became leader, they’d still have to try to manage the unmanageable NJs of the far-out right. See anyone in sight who could do that? J Bish of the steely gaze? Nup, they’d defy her though she might put up more of a fight than Malcolm. Bring on the DD I say!

  41. Also, does Joe Bullock’s retirement mean that Bullock’s Senate seat will become vacant, or will he still a Senator until election later this year?

  44. Paaptsef @ 172,
    “The government must turn to Pyne for PM and Bishop as his deputy. If they don’t do this on the last day of the current sitting they’re finished”

    I agree, Paaptsef. How could Christopher possibly fail? A chutzpah led recovery!

  46. Millennial, 191

    I believe it’ll become vacant pending an appointment by the ALP to the spot (since he was only elected in 2013).

  48. [John Howard says Donald Trump is “manifestly unsuited” to be president of the United States. #abc730 #auspol]

    Geez, he said Obama didn’t have a chance too.

    Be afraid be very…

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