Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Coalition

The first Ipsos poll in three months provides more evidence of a slippage in support for Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition government.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is another weaker result for the Coalition, whose two-party lead of 52-48 compares with 56-44 at the previous such poll in mid-November. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 44%, Labor is up three to 32% and the Greens are up two to 15%. Malcolm Turnbull takes a solid hit on his still very strong personal ratings, with approval down seven to 62% and disapproval up eight to 24%. Bill Shorten is little changed on 30% approval (up one) and 55% disapproval (down two), and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 69-18 to 64-19. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,969 thoughts on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. victoria,

    I was glad I tracked down the audio of the interview.

    Not surprising the ABC and others concentrated on that one short piece in the conversation.

    Also not surprising that they left out Gary Gray saying Shorten will be PM and the praise he heaped on Bill.

    I did not watch the NPC today. I thought it would be a hour of my life I would not get back if I did watch and by the sounds of it I was right.

    The MSM continue to focus on labor losing its attack message after Turnbull and now Morrison have rolled on the GST.

    The coalition will continue with cuts to health and education, it’s part privatisation of Medicare as well as a heap of further cuts in the budget.

    Plenty for labor to work with there as they also continue to roll out its own policy.

    Cheers

  2. TPOF – Totally agree. And what happens during the election campaign when Malcolm says: don’t worry, trust me, direct action will be reviewed in 2017, etc etc, when all he’s done up to that point is bullshit. They just don’t see the truck coming across the centre line.

  3. Classic!

    Bette Midler
    Bette Midler – Verified account ‏@BetteMidler

    Trump called Ted Cruz a “pussy”? Well, Trump’s a dick so maybe they should get together and f@@k off!
    10:24 AM – 15 Feb 2016
    4,116 RETWEETS7,714 LIKES

  4. Doyley

    Not surprising the ABC and others concentrated on that one short piece in the conversation.

    One for Colton I think, in his quest to document the bias at the ABC.

    And it underlines why it is sometimes hard to detect that ‘bias’ exists. If you had not heard the original of the interview, you would probably think you understood Gary Gray’s comments and not realize they had been taken out of context.

  5. Funny isn’t it?

    Just watched ABC-24. They gave the Mantach story second last billing and then only 45 seconds.

    $1.5 million is nothing compared to Thomson making off with $6,000, or Peter Slipper with $900, of course… but you’d think the story would be slightly higher up the ladder than second last wouldn’t you?

  6. <a href="C@tmomma@1221

    ‘ Fear and Loathing in Dubbo?’

    More like Noddy and Big Ears Go On An Adventure.

    /#comment-2336241″>C@tmomma@1221

    ‘ Fear and Loathing in Dubbo?’

    More like Noddy and Big Ears Go On An Adventure.

    With no map, compass, radio, spare water, or any effing idea of what they are doing.

  7. Also not surprising that they left out Gary Gray saying Shorten will be PM and the praise he heaped on Bill.

    Doyley that part of the interview was included on RN with Fran Kelly in an interview broadcast after 8am. I don’t know what happened on AM because I was listening to Fran.

  8. WTF? Try again:

    C@tmomma @ 1221

    “Fear and Loathing in Dubbo?”

    More like Noddy and Big Ears Go On An Adventure.

    With no map, compass, radio, spare water, or any effing idea of what they are doing.

  9. BB,
    “Just watched ABC-24. They gave the Mantach story second last billing and then only 45 seconds.”

    I think the ABC should be sold to Murdoch. At least then people will know where it is coming from. The view presented in the media (and ABC) that the ABC is impartial or even leftist is clearly a con. Best they just came out in the open by selling it.

  10. Lenore Taylor

    It seems the election campaign is to be fought as an ideological argument between the Coalition’s belief in smaller government and rewarding the hard-working earners weighed down by the impact of bracket creep (“They’re the ones who really deserve compensation,” Morrison said) and Labor’s belief that the nation’s social compact requires the federal government to spend more on hospitals and schools.

    Each major party is intending to fund its priorities with slightly different plans to rein in tax concessions (superannuation, negative gearing, personal tax deductions) and, in Labor’s case, tobacco excise and multinational tax avoidance.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/17/four-things-we-learnt-from-scott-morrisons-first-speech-to-the-national-press-club?CMP=soc_568

  11. davidwh

    So they played the whole i.v. in the morning, and then extracted the piece the producer thought was most important for the rest of the day.

  12. Lizzie also I don’t think that’s unusual for any of the news organisations, to extract that part of an interview they believe is most important. That’s often how things get taken out of context.

  13. 21.Lizzie also I don’t think that’s unusual for any of the news organisations, to extract that part of an interview they believe is most important. That’s often how things get taken out of context.

    Well now everyone in the country who can read and think knows the ABC news and current affairs makes their selection to minimise the PM’s angst.

  14. Lizzie I understand that however perhaps the ABC thought WA losing all their sitting MP’s was the more important story than a MP suggesting his leader would become PM.

  15. 24.Lizzie I understand that however perhaps the ABC thought WA losing all their sitting MP’s was the more important story than a MP suggesting his leader would become PM.

    Well if they’d lost 15-20 it might even be a legit story. But three what drugs would you need to be on to think that might be a story before you worked out that two out of three were readily explained by age.

    The amount of keep Malcolm happy pressure from the 14th floor must be immense even before you start reacting to inferred pressure.

  16. All I heard on ABC was that Labor were going to lose the election – from Gray.

    Perhaps the ABC was just glad to find someone else who predicts elections and acts on the predictions to look after themselves!

  17. Lizzie #1776 I’m not surprised while it was not the most important part of his interview in my opinion it sure was the dumbest part. What was he thinking?

  18. Sohar is correct. You might as well sell the ABC’s news and current affairs division, then at least you’d drop the pretence of independence.
    My taxes could be invested in more a worthy venture than a propaganda laundering excercise on behalf of the coalition.

  19. 32.Sohar is correct. You might as well sell the ABC’s news and current affairs division, then at least you’d drop the pretence of independence.
    My taxes could be invested in more a worthy venture than a propaganda laundering excercise on behalf of the coalition.

    But that is still what Murdoch wants, but reforming the ABC will be very hard, the bias is so I grained.

  20. Crossbench anger at the prospect of Senate voting reform has bubbled over, with minor parties threatening to target the Coalition in marginal lower house seats at this year’s election as pay back for changes they say will lock them out of Parliament.

    The alliance of minor parties has drawn up a hit-list of 16 Coalition-held seats to run candidates and attempt to disrupt the government vote.

    The plan includes right-leaning micro parties going against past practice and urging voters to preference Labor.

    Despite some support for voting reforms within its ranks, Labor’s Senate leader Penny Wong, Stephen Conroy and Sam Dastyari are convinced the changes would benefit the Coalition and prevent the ALP ever getting a future majority without relying on the support of the Greens.

    Senator Wong said she was concerned at forecasts that the Coalition could seize an absolute majority if voting reforms go through and there was a double dissolution election.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/angry-minor-parties-to-target-marginal-liberal-seats-retaliation-to-senate-vote-reforms-20160217-gmwlm1.html#ixzz40PJN7jaK

  21. 32.Sohar is correct. You might as well sell the ABC’s news and current affairs division,…

    Which is exactly what the Murdochs of the world want, and whatever that crowd want is unlikely to be to the benefit of the average citizen.

    The ABC is due some serious criticism, no doubt about that. But it should be vigorously reformed, not reflexively sold off.

    We can start with the way ABC board members are selected, a reform Rudd (Mk 1) Labor tried to get up and running, but then Abbott happened and stuffed any possibility of bipartisan policy progress on anything.

  22. adrian

    There were still funding cuts.
    IMO Labor has done most of the obvious ‘sympathetic’ cuts in many departments, and now we’re down to floor scraping.

  23. Matthew Rimmer ‏@DrRimmer · 6m6 minutes ago

    . @bowenchris has been a bright spot for the ALP. He has really had two treasurers on the run in Joe Hockey and Scott Morrison. #auspol

  24. https://newmatilda.com/2016/02/17/what-labor-negative-gearing-missing/

    Labor’s proposals to restrict negative gearing to new properties and to reduce capital gains tax (CGT) concessions address all three objectives. But they do so in only a modest way, and they preserve (indeed strengthen) some of the worst distortions of our current tax arrangements, which favour fast turnover speculation at the expense of long-term patient investment.
    :::
    Labor should go back to its drawing boards and spreadsheets and come up with a better-considered plan. Prohibiting full tax deductibility of interest and requiring quarantining of losses would be a good start, as would restoring the Hawke government reforms. And some of the savings could go into the badly starved public housing sector – a more direct and regionally focussed way to bring downward pressure on housing prices.

  25. Morrison’s ‘performance’ today was utterly pathetic and yet the CPG seems to be letting it all just go through to the keeper.

    A do nothing, waffling, back flipping, shmozzle of a government just keeps on getting hospital passes, stuff up after stuff up and they are barely questioned about what their program for government is.

    abbott’s talking points just replaced with another set and the lack of policy outcomes not even being seriously question by the media.

    It would boots in, all in from the media and cries of National emergency if it were Labor in this position.

  26. -1Wayne Swan
    Wayne Swan – Verified account ‏@SwannyQLD

    What has Morrison done in the past 5 and half months? According to him (NPC) very little. #auspol2

  27. Michael Pascoe
    56m56 minutes ago
    Michael Pascoe ‏@MichaelPascoe01
    NPC show as Social Security Minister turned press gallery around on ScoMo. From afar, I get the impression it’s happened again – in reverse

    Bernard Keane
    Bernard Keane – Verified account ‏@BernardKeane
    @MichaelPascoe01 it wasn’t awful… it was simply… nothing… a waste of time, a waste of lots of time
    10:38 PM – 16 Feb 2016
    10 RETWEETS5 LIKES

  28. Obviously time for Gary Gray to go. Any Labor MP who can say in the some breath that he expects Labor to lose the next election and then backtracks to say Shorten will be PM after the next election is due for a spell in the back paddock. Any psychologist would divine his real thoughts got out first and the media might well think the same.

  29. Pegasus

    just while you are here did you see my post yesterday in which I asked you whether you are in favour of Labor’s Gonski reforms for education?

  30. adian, lizzie

    they never seemed to feel any pressure when Labor was in government

    The ABC are not stupid. They believe that only a Liberal government would ever sell them off, so they don’t give a rat’s arse what Labor thinks about them. This has to change. The only way Labor will ever get balanced treatment from the ABC is if Labor make it clear that THEY will also consider selling them off if they don’t start behaving like a genuine independent National Broadcaster and not just a Liberal propaganda machine.

  31. The Greens like to differentiate themselves by describing the major parties as obsolescent, but their push for Senate voting changes show they too have become part of the mouldering establishment

    Just doing my bit for balance. 🙂

    Perhaps the issue is more that while the Greens rely on leaching the disenfranchised progressive vote from Labor, they are unhappy that a similar splintering of the right-wing vote away from the Coalition has delivered the balance of power to arch conservatives on a number of occasions.

  32. david at 1773

    Lizzie I understand that however perhaps the ABC thought WA losing all their sitting MP’s was the more important story than a MP suggesting his leader would become PM.

    Actually, I think it would be useful if both points were made – and also note that ‘all’ is just three and does provide an opportunity for renewal – which is what Turncoat has been fog horning about because he has lost three of his choices of Minister because of alleged and actual misconduct.

    Real balance requires a bit of context, rather than providing a misleading quote – which, having just heard it, is then misrepresented by ABC reporters as having Gray say something he didn’t.

    And the kicker for all this was that when Shorten did a presser that day, the only questions he was asked (whether from the ABC or the other oxygen thieves who parade as journalists) were about the politics. Not one question about the education policy, which was the reason for the presser.

    It’s not that the ABC is so bad; it’s just that they are so much just a ‘me too’ of their mindless colleagues.

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