Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Coalition

The first Ipsos poll in three months provides more evidence of a slippage in support for Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition government.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is another weaker result for the Coalition, whose two-party lead of 52-48 compares with 56-44 at the previous such poll in mid-November. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 44%, Labor is up three to 32% and the Greens are up two to 15%. Malcolm Turnbull takes a solid hit on his still very strong personal ratings, with approval down seven to 62% and disapproval up eight to 24%. Bill Shorten is little changed on 30% approval (up one) and 55% disapproval (down two), and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 69-18 to 64-19. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,969 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. re zoomster @ 1647 and my comment at 1692: I wonder if zoomster is aware that her favoured system was that recommended by the coalition members of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters in its report on the 2004 election, which attracted a fierce dissent, for all the right reasons, from the ALP members. See http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House_of_Representatives_Committees?url=em/elect04/report/minority.pdf, at pp. 374-5.

  2. lizzie

    [Is it not the case that you can’t get unemployment benefit until you have completely run out of money? ]

    No. You can have quite a bit of money. If you have a lot, there might be an extended waiting period before you start receiving benefits, but you certainly don’t have to exhaust your savings.

  3. A fairly fluffy report by Peatling.

    [“Work, save and invest” did not make an appearance – quite – in Mr Morrison’s Wednesday address to the National Press Club, which marks the beginning of the race to lay the foundations for the budget that will be released on May 10.

    But a new mantra popped up – “the only way to have lower taxes is to have lower taxation”.

    Expect to hear that repeated ad infinitum in the coming days and weeks.

    …”How can I help you win today,” is the question Mr Morrison wants voters to ask of him.

    It is not a million miles away from another infamous political promise from another political fighter, Kevin Rudd, who used to liked to say: “I’m Kevin and I’m here to help.”

    In politics, as in life, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

    But it’s better than “revenue – where the bloody hell are you?”.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/scott-morrison-and-the-art-of-the-economic-sales-pitch-20160217-gmwfcs.html

  4. lizzie

    I am interested to see what Laura Tingle writes about today’s embarrassing show by Morrison. Her body language whilst he was talking was not very good. 🙂

  5. lizzie

    [ Is it not the case that you can’t get unemployment benefit until you have completely run out of money? That has always seemed so unfair, to me. ]

    Yes, I believe that’s the case. Also, you have to sell any assets you have. One person I know was told they had to sell their car to be eligible. Their response was “but if I sell my car I can’t get a job!”. They were refused the dole.

  6. victoria

    Nothing serious, just a reminder that I am now in the ‘ageing’ cohort, so I suppose I should feel guilty because I am costing the nation more money. 🙁

  7. zoomster

    [ No. You can have quite a bit of money. If you have a lot, there might be an extended waiting period before you start receiving benefits, but you certainly don’t have to exhaust your savings. ]

    This is not my (indirect!) experience. Can you point me to a source?

  8. zoomster

    [ Nonsense. ]

    Do you have any link for this? I’m really interested, since it contradicts what Centrelink staff are telling my friend.

  9. [DeeMadigan ‏@deemadigan · 1m1 minute ago

    We all thought that when Hockey left the lols would go with him. So hats off to ScoMo for stepping up to the plate.]

  10. lizzie

    With each passing day I am starting to think Abbott/Hockey have nothing on this combo. Turnbull and Morrison have been absolutely shocking

  11. Good afternoon all,

    I was wondering if anyone heard the full interview with Gary Gray this morning ?

    If not would someone be able to help me find a link to a transcript or audio of the interview ?

    The reason I ask is I am interested to see the story has completely disappeared from ABC online and I would really like to read or hear what was actually said and if anything has been left out of the reporting in the Age etc.

    Thanks in advance.

    Cheers

  12. lizzie

    well, no – if you’re running through money at that rate, you’re not going to survive on Centrelink payments!

    Also, it’s a maximum – so you can have well over that amount of money in the bank and you still only wait the 13 weeks.

  13. zoomster

    [ The Liquid Assets Waiting Period lasts between 1 and 13 weeks. It applies if you have funds that are equal to or more than ]

    Well, that’s not what Centrelink says. They told my friend they were simply ineligible (no time frame was given) and asked them if they would be willing to sell their car.

    I’ll try and find out more.

  14. pedant

    As always, my opinion is my own.

    Limiting the number of preferences means that people will be disenfranchised. If you voted above the line for 6 minor parties, for example, you may well end up with no one in the Senate who benefitted from your vote (and thus, in theory, be unrepresented).

    I’m quite happy to stick with the present system, if you think that alternative is too cumbersome. However, preferencing above the line is easier than preferencing below it.

  15. Player One

    Let’s be clear here – you don’t know what Centrelink said. You know what your friend said Centrelink said. There’s a difference.

    I have received incorrect advice from Centrelink people in the past. However, this would not be the case with eligibility requirements, because it’s a case of ‘the computer says’.

  16. Turnbull and Sco-Mo seem completely incapable of hearing and addressing the growing criticism of their performances. Why not rush out a few policies? Why not steal policies from Labor? They’re just too dumb to take the criticism on-board. I’m really starting to think that we’ve actually seen the best of these clowns. They won’t get any better as an election approaches, which is excellent news for Labor.

  17. Yes, Player, they include the car as an asset. I didn’t say they didn’t.

    However, the car would be assessed at a fire sale price (so probably 50% of its real value) and you would need to already have at least $200k in assets for it to be a deciding factor.

  18. Speaking of Morrison’s NPC speech allegory to the economy being a Test Match, the following came to mind:

    “Can’t bat. Can’t bowl.”

  19. zoomster

    [ However, the car would be assessed at a fire sale price (so probably 50% of its real value) and you would need to already have at least $200k in assets for it to be a deciding factor. ]

    $200k? Ha! They would be lucky to have $20k!

    So if it was not declined because of ‘assets’ I have no other explanation (that was the only reason given by Centrelink staff – hence the suggestion to sell the car).

    But since no mention was made of any ‘waiting period’ you may be right that it was not assets related. I will try and find out what the actual ruling was – assuming Centrelink is required to tell them!

  20. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@1733

    Turnbull and Sco-Mo seem completely incapable of hearing and addressing the growing criticism of their performances. excellent news for

    Fairfax have a couple of ‘articles’ up on Morrison’s NPC address and they play morrisons game and don’t lay a glove on him.

    Won’t link them – they aren’t worth it.

  21. P1

    At a guess, your friend doesn’t actually own their car, but is paying it off – and Centrelink benefits don’t let them do that. So not a case of being ineligible, but of being unable to afford the cost.

  22. [ I think the key messages from Morrison’s address today are as follows: ]

    Sooo….complete and utter retreat from the value of a surplus, debt and deficit emergency and any kind of Budget repair.

    Good to see the Libs dumping Hockey /Abbott themeses they were so attached to. What a difference Malcolm makes. 🙂

  23. Good afternoon again,

    I just had a listen to the Gary Gray interview this morning with Fran Kelly.

    I suggest if anyone is interested to listen to it .

    Yes he does say it is unlikely that labor will win but he frames it in a historical context and he does say immediately after that he believes Bill Shorten will be PM.

    Gary Gray speakers highly of Bil Shorten so I think once again it is all about the MSM picking bits of a overall conversation and pumping it up.

    Cheers.

  24. P1

    [I will try and find out what the actual ruling was – assuming Centrelink is required to tell them!]

    They are. You can also appeal against decisions made by Centrelink. (I always involve the local Fed MP in this and also make a call to the relevant Minister’s office…tends to speed things up a bit!)

  25. z

    [ At a guess, your friend doesn’t actually own their car, but is paying it off – and Centrelink benefits don’t let them do that. So not a case of being ineligible, but of being unable to afford the cost. ]

    No, the car is owned outright. It’s a 20 year old bomb, worth maybe $5k. I have no explanation, but I am certainly intrigued enough to try and find out what’s going on.

  26. z

    [ They are. You can also appeal against decisions made by Centrelink. (I always involve the local Fed MP in this and also make a call to the relevant Minister’s office…tends to speed things up a bit!) ]

    Yes, I had already suggested that course. If we can’t get an answer from Centrelink I will see that it gets pursued.

  27. Doyley

    I heard excerpts of Gary Gray’s interview and was very annoyed at the way the ABC repeated just the short quote about Labor not likely to win the election etc.

  28. Doyley @ 741

    [Gary Gray speakers highly of Bil Shorten so I think once again it is all about the MSM picking bits of a overall conversation and pumping it up.]

    It’s the journalistic version of clickbait. It’s put to someone who is likely to be unhappy with the comment as reported and who will then be provoked to snarl back – as a result it is on for young and old and the journos have a story crafting itself without any real journalism involved.

    Bill Shorten handled this excellently today with nothing but praise for Gray.

  29. K17 @ 1733

    Everyone is waiting for the reveal at budget time. If it turns out that the budget does nothing more than perpetuate what we have seen to date from Thelma and Robin, then I think things will start to go south.

    It is not enough for a government with nothing to show for three years in power but a new PM and Treasurer and a promise to be better if they are given another shot at it.

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