BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Coalition

A dip in support for the Coalition recorded by Morgan makes its presence felt in the latest weekly poll aggregate reading, although the Coalition is still projected as on track to retain its thumping majority from 2013.

A fairly pronounced narrowing in the Coalition’s lead may now be observed on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate charts, thanks mostly to an unusually soft result for the Turnbull government in this week’s Morgan result. This shows up as a 0.6% move to Labor on two-party preferred since last week, but it’s only made a slight difference on the seat projection, which credits the Coalition with a net gain of one seat since the 2013 election despite a 0.4% lower two-party vote. The aggregate also records a lift in support for the Greens, who had had some of the wind taken out of their sails when Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The addition of new figures from Essential Research to the leadership ratings results in essentially no change to an overall picture of Turnbull enjoying massive but nonetheless slightly reduced leads over Bill Shorten on both net approval and preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,097 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Coalition”

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  1. Colton@935

    Bemused

    Thanks for the friendly warning. Just a blue collar shit-kicker so apologies to anyone upset or offended by my spelling and grammer.
    Yes, the party should come before any individual but the fact is we have to have an individual as leader and any true supporter should keep the sniping for behind closed doors.
    Not wanting to start a stupid argument either but to be honest mate its just a bit rich for you to say you support the party over any individual when you were and are the biggest supporter here of the most selfish termite in ALP history who spent several years putting his individual ambition ahead of the parties interest.

    Yes, Kev was incredibly selfish running backwards into that knife Gillard was holding.

    And then you could see his evil mind control as he manipulated her into absurd policy announcements like ‘cash for clunkers’ and ‘citizens assembly’.

    And not content with that he was solely responsible for her robotic campaign speech and all the ‘moving forwards’.

    She was so pathetic that all he had to do was remain alive and upright and he presented a threat to her.

    Was he a bad tempered bastard at times? Probably that and a few other things. But I don’t care. He was effective as a leader in ways that matter like connecting with the voters.

    I like you voted for Albo, but I accept the outcome and admit now that the right person probably won and he is doing well.

  2. Bemused

    Cant do the smiley face thing, im on my laptop not mobile.
    But im hoping we can keep the discussion civil so thanks.
    Im always happy to hear the opinion of other ALP supporters, those who dont spend every comment bagging Shorten etc.
    Which by the way I dont put you in that group.

  3. Hear bloody hear!!

    [Finnigans 天有道地有道人无道 ‏@Thefinnigans
    Oh i see,

    When Labor’s Ministers resign, it’s Govt in chaos

    When LNP’s it’s chance for renewal.

    Well f@@k you i say]

  4. Colton@952

    Bemused

    Cant do the smiley face thing, im on my laptop not mobile.
    But im hoping we can keep the discussion civil so thanks.
    Im always happy to hear the opinion of other ALP supporters, those who dont spend every comment bagging Shorten etc.
    Which by the way I dont put you in that group.

    I see no-one at present who could do a better job than Shorten is doing. There is some talent there, but I don’t see any as ‘ready to lead’.

    The ‘smiley face thing’ is done by entering characters.

    The 😀 is simply : D without the space between them for example.

  5. Nicholas,

    I do support ideas. Thats why I support the ALP who have a long and proud history of nation building ideas and could never support the Greens who have a manifesto full of unrealistic hand wringing and virtue signalling brain farts that will never be achieved.

  6. [SK – Maybe the board members should put their hands in their pockets and set things right with the charity]
    hahahahahahahahahaha
    But David Evans stockbroking firm only made $5.3 million last year!

  7. Nicholas

    I would also add that if the quality of your ideas are similar to your idea to make Melissa Parke ALP leader then god help this country if the Greens are ever in a position of actual responsibility.

  8. I do support ideas. Thats why I support the ALP who have a long and proud history of nation building ideas and could never support the Greens who have a manifesto full of unrealistic hand wringing and virtue signalling brain farts that will never be achieved.

    Labor is a world-class hand-wringer and bed-wetter. It constantly second-guesses and censors itself and cleaves to conservative orthodoxies for fear of stirring up opposition. That isn’t a values-focused party.

  9. Victoria, wouldn’t that be luvverly! I’d heard the rumour, but didn’t think of Prissy. Of course he is probably less evil than some of the others, but he is terribly irritating.
    Fairfax has an article about tension between Turnbull and Morrison. Conclusion: tension between a PM and a treasurer can be creative. The journalistic spin is certainly wonderfully agile. Of course, any hint of tension between Shorten and Bowen would attract howls about the imminent end of the world.

  10. Ooops

    Sarah Martin
    ‏@msmarto
    BREAKING: Stuart Robert had indirect shareholding in Nimrod Resources, the company he assisted in China

  11. colton

    [Got to laugh at the usual suspects here who claim they are ALP supporters yet every comment they make is either a criticism of the ALP and its leader or an absurd defense of Turnbulls weak and chaotic leadership.]

    As a non-usual suspect, I empathise. I am literally a card-carrying member of the ALP. The vituperation directed by some ‘ALP supporters’ against the party (and its leader) is very unedifying.

    Comrades, get your shit together.

  12. MTBW

    Sorry if im making too may posts.
    Currently on my first holiday in 3 years plus i have 3 kids under 8 so dont usually get the chance to comment.
    As i mentioned previously ive been visiting this site for 10 years and made my first comment the other day.
    Planning on having my say more often in this election year because I think like most of us here it is imperative to get rid of this shocking govt.
    Im going to try my hardest to be polite and respectful to all here so feel free to pull me up if I dont uphold those standards.
    That respect will not be afforded the Greens however, they are the worst IMO. lol.
    Got to take my 8month old to doctors so signing out now.
    Cheers.

  13. The Greens remind me of One Nation – all talk and no real policy.

    One Nation would say we will lower taxes, raise pay rates, etc, etc…. When asked how they will achieve it, they say go see our policies. Greens are not much different really. Some nice concepts, but like their policy on Tax Avoidance, their actions prove that it’s not worth the paper it is written on.

    Tom.

  14. [As a result, Mr Robert has asked me not to consider him in the pending reshuffle of the ministry.]
    Turnbull waffle for “I sacked him!”.

  15. kakuru@967

    colton

    Got to laugh at the usual suspects here who claim they are ALP supporters yet every comment they make is either a criticism of the ALP and its leader or an absurd defense of Turnbulls weak and chaotic leadership.


    As a non-usual suspect, I empathise. I am literally a card-carrying member of the ALP. The vituperation directed by some ‘ALP supporters’ against the party (and its leader) is very unedifying.

    Comrades, get your shit together.

    Yes, you ‘outed’ yourself recently. We seem to have a growing number of ALP supporters here.

    But I for one haven’t outsourced my thinking to anyone else in the ALP and, although I support most policies, do have reservations about some and think others could be better implemented.

    e.g. I am far from convinced that leasing the Port of Melbourne for 50 years or any other period is a good idea. I am also critical of State Labor for not taking back the Melbourne train system when they had a chance and had hinted they would.

    On the plus side, I think the elevated rail proposal is a bold initiative and support it 200%. Just one example, the Andrews Govt is doing well overall.

  16. Nicholas

    Couldnt leave without replying.
    A values focused party wouldnt sell out to the libs at every opportunity like weve seen from the greens under their shiny new relevance seeking leader on issues like tax disclosure so save your bullshit for the naive 10% who think the greens are different to any other political party.

  17. SK

    Yup. Spencer sums it up nicely:

    Stephen Spencer
    ‏@sspencer_63
    To sum up, Stuart Robert wasn’t aware he’d been given a $24,000 Rollex, AND mining company shares. Right.

  18. Colton@968

    MTBW

    Sorry if im making too may posts.

    Can’t really speak for MTBW, but I don’t think that is what she meant.

    Anyway, I am pleased to see you ad a bit more variety of opinion here.

  19. Colton
    [That respect will not be afforded the Greens however, they are the worst IMO. lol.]
    lol Your agenda is clear. The Coalition is better than the Greens. Says a great deal about your values, viz they are closer to the Coalition than the Greens.

    You’re not a ‘leftie’ progressive RU 😉

  20. bemused
    what is your gravitar? It looks like a little charcoal puppy dog. Maltese of some mix.
    Charcoal is the new black dont you know.

  21. davidwh
    ahhhh, yes it does. I must have puppies on my mind.
    It kinda looks a little like the Shaka hand sign too – like the one really groovy dudes use..

  22. From the ABC News website:

    [Malcolm Turnbull reshuffle quandary:

    . Warren Truss stepped down as Minister for Infrastructure and Regional Development ahead of his retirement at the next election

    . Jamie Briggs resigned as Minister for Cities and the Built Environment late last year after breaching the ministerial code of conduct

    . Stuart Robert resigning as Minister for Veterans’ Affairs, Minister for Human Services and Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for the Centenary of ANZAC, after internal investigation

    . Mal Brough stood aside as Special Minister of State pending federal police investigation

    . Minister for Trade and Investment Andrew Robb set to stand down from frontbench

    . Minister for Agriculture and Water Resources Barnaby Joyce has not confirmed whether he wants to keep Agriculture or move into another role

    . Assistant Heath Minister Fiona Nash has risen to deputy Nationals leadership and is expected to move into Cabinet leaving her outer ministry health position open]

    Renewal?

  23. Colton
    [A values focused party wouldnt sell out to the libs at every opportunity…]
    Love your sense of humour 😉 Labor vote with the Coalition all the time.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-04/coalition,-labor-unite-to-vote-down-asylum-seeker-amnesty-motion/7140948
    [The Coalition and Labor have joined forces to vote down a motion to grant amnesty to almost 270 asylum seekers currently in Australia.

    The 267 people, including 37 babies, are facing the prospect of being sent to Nauru in the wake of yesterday’s High Court judgement which upheld offshore immigration detention.]

    Great values to support 😉

  24. Helen Sykes

    Pyne is a prime suspect due to his involvement re the Slipper saga, and the fact that the AFP have been talking to him re same

  25. [Malcolm Turnbull & Julie Bishop formed view Stuart Robert should go. Scott Morrison disagreed. Stuart Robert will go. More details on Sky]

    So Morrison is leaking against Turnbull. I said last week that Turnbull throwing Morrison under the bus on the GST was going to come at a cost. If he’s just used his authority and stood Robert down on Tuesday morning pending his enquiries and made the call himself (often a leader needs to consult, but not on this occasion) he wouldn’t have this problem. Just hopeless.

    Now his treasurer is completely unafraid to leak against his leader. Yeah this mob is going to walk it in at the election.

  26. Just got the latest email update from Wyatt Roy. Apparently we will have NBN on 11 March – but he didn’t nominate which year.

    WiFi services on Bribie get a bit suspect when we have bad weather so hopefully things will improve in March.

  27. “Guardian has the simple descriptive ‘loses job’.” The use of passive ‘loses job’ is trying to suggest that nobody was involved in anything – it just happened. A bit like ‘unemployment has increased’ (bad news) and ‘the government has reduced unemployment’ (good news). Tricky little rag, the Grauniad.

  28. Simon Katich@978

    bemused
    what is your gravitar? It looks like a little charcoal puppy dog. Maltese of some mix.
    Charcoal is the new black dont you know.

    SK… others had no trouble identifying it as ‘The Thinker’ by Rodin.

    Time to see your optometrist I suspect. 😉

  29. bemused

    [But I for one haven’t outsourced my thinking to anyone else in the ALP and, although I support most policies, do have reservations about some and think others could be better implemented.]

    As do I. I still think for myself, thank you very much. I’m just amazed at the bile directed at the ALP in general, and Shorten in particular, by so-called ALP supporters.

    Hurl insults at the ALP as much as you want. But don’t claim in the same breath that you’re a ‘supporter’.

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