A fairly pronounced narrowing in the Coalition’s lead may now be observed on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate charts, thanks mostly to an unusually soft result for the Turnbull government in this week’s Morgan result. This shows up as a 0.6% move to Labor on two-party preferred since last week, but it’s only made a slight difference on the seat projection, which credits the Coalition with a net gain of one seat since the 2013 election despite a 0.4% lower two-party vote. The aggregate also records a lift in support for the Greens, who had had some of the wind taken out of their sails when Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The addition of new figures from Essential Research to the leadership ratings results in essentially no change to an overall picture of Turnbull enjoying massive but nonetheless slightly reduced leads over Bill Shorten on both net approval and preferred prime minister.
P1
Read David’s comment at 845 that is how it works.
David Speers says Turnbull, Bishop and Morrison met to discuss outcome of Robert matter. Turnbull and Bishop agreed he should go. Morrison disagreed. He is close friends with Robert
[ abcnews: #BREAKING: The ABC understands Human Services Minister Stuart Robert is resigning ]
ie He was sacked and they ‘agreed’ to announce it this way.
Morrison apparently not happy about it and incoming DPM saying he cannot see what Robert has done wrong.
Coorey’s article earlier today concluded with –
[ The Coalition is a tinderbox at the moment and it makes no sense to create sparks. ]
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/stuart-robert-becomes-a-pawn-in-the-turnbullabbott-civil-war-20160211-gmrhz5
Its still bushfire season in more ways then one.
Bring it on.
The Truss resignation and the renegotiation of the agreement with the Nationals is the very very last chance for Turnbull to lay groundwork to show he is not a jelly pretending to be PM.
If he agrees again to keep the SSM plebiscite this will be as plain as day to voters. Even if he has managed to fool them over the Climate Change part.
People can readily see the waste of money the plebiscite is. Even the National party voters that oppose it can see the waste of money.
Not having the guts to stand up to waste of money will tell with voters everywhere.
dave
Apparently Morrison and Robert have been close friends for years and are flatmates when staying in Canberra. Morrison did not believe Robert did anything wrong
dave
Oops. Meant to add. It is definitely a tinderbox at the moment!!
beneltham: Note to self: when lobbying in China for a top Liberal donor, need a better excuse than “I was on holidays”
Morrison could always challenge Turnbull for the leadership. That would be interesting. But probably not just YET.
Tweet from David Speers
[David Speers
David Speers – Verified account @David_Speers
Malcolm Turnbull & Julie Bishop formed view Stuart Robert should go. Scott Morrison disagreed. Stuart Robert will go. More details on Sky]
CatherineKingMP: Add “stable government” to “no cuts to education, no cuts to health, no change to pensions, no change to the GST and no cuts to the ABC”
Player
I think David is right. Everyone knows that it is a forced resignation. Malcolm does not look especially weak on tjhis – fairly quick response.
BUT
The real issue is the very, very obvious instability in the government. It is looking serious and possibly terminal.
Sure the Monkey pods are deliberately targeting Malcolm supporters and people they see as “traitors.” Actually they seem to be targeting QUEENSLANDERS – I wonder if their is a story there. Brough, Roy, McFarlane, Roberts. Only Briggs is not from Qld of those targeted, and his removal might possibly have been self inflicted.
MTBW
[ Read David’s comment at 845 that is how it works. ]
Quite possibly – details are yet to emerge. But Mal still used the ‘internal inquiry’ bullshit to try and delay the inevitable, which just made him look weak and wishy-washy.
Also, to have his most senior minister disagree with the decision makes it apparent there are still deep divisions within the party. Only three people involved in the decision and they still couldn’t agree?
I think those who believe Morrison may be targeted next may be correct. Happy days!
guytaur
[If he agrees again to keep the SSM plebiscite this will be as plain as day to voters.]
He could get away with holding the plebiscite at the same time as the next election on cost grounds. Still inappropriate, but the public might buy it. Promising to spend $160 million of taxpayers’ money sometime after the next election is suicidal once Labor and the Greens (and everyone else start to campaign on it). Especially in the current financial situation.
Cool, So Roberts is gone and the speculation gets interesting.
1) Will Pyne/Roy be given lesser ministries or backbenched in the reshuffle – ideally something small enough that when they have to step aside, Turnbull doesn’t need a third reshuffle.
2) There have been a lot of men thoroughly discredited. Turnbull’s first reshuffle was a minor improvement for women in cabinet, can he continue the trend?
3) ScoMo has demonstrated that he shouldn’t be given any position that requires talking to, or dealing with any voters. Immigration or Defense suit him best, so he can be tough on foreign people. Will Turnbull take advantage of this time to prevent a shambles of a budget.
4) Will there be an olive branch extended to the Monkey Pod? Or is it war.
Sky and Fairfax have gone with sacked.
How long till ABC realises its insurance against LNP is obvious today?
TPOF
I agree holding the plebiscite is less damaging on the financial front. However like the carbon tax the narrative of the spending waste is out there.
Vic
Watch this space to see who is leaked on next.
No doubt lots of fingers being pointed within the (not so) happy little campers of the coalition.
I am looking forward to joyce inserting both feet into his mouth – again and soon.
Its getting to be a big ask to keep up with their musical chairs on ministerial jobs.
The silver lining is Robert and *others* have been provided with ample motivation for revenge though.
Any reference to nests and vipers would be unfair to vipers in their nests.
Scott Bales
The reshuffle will be interesting. It could determine which Minister is next on the hit list in this guerilla war 🙂
dave
I am thinking Joyce and Pyne may be next on the list…….
Player One I don’t have a problem with the process used other than the fact they drew it out until after Parliament rose. The delay was a purely political exercise and we do deserve not to have to put up with a minister unfit to hold the position any longer than is necessary.
I don’t think Turnbull was weak just manipulative.
or as mentioned above, Morrison himself
Scott Bales
[ Will Pyne/Roy be given lesser ministries or backbenched in the reshuffle – ideally something small enough that when they have to step aside, Turnbull doesn’t need a third reshuffle. ]
Good point. I wonder when the AFP are due to conclude their investigation? I assumed not till after the next election – but perhaps Abbott still has sufficient influence with his old bunkies to bring it in earlier.
So will MaLPM actually have to dump anyone from the ministry or just fill in the gaps??
P1 @ 862
I think the public will just register it as yet another Minister gone. Unlike the Bronnhilde affair, which everyone could relate to, nobody but us political junkies will get the underlying issue – which is why Morrison thought he could be saved.
The biggest cost to the Liberals is not public. It is a whole week of distraction and destabilisation – and a Parliamentary sitting week at that. This rips into the confidence and unity of the Government and creates uncertainty and fear about who is leaking, robbing the party (and the Government) of trust of their colleagues. In an election year, the capacity of the Government to use its powers to position itself for the election is utterly compromised.
Conversely, the very things that nobody is noticing or noting about Labor, its unity and it policy preparedness for government, will start to shine as an alternative to the shemozzle on the other side of the chamber and of politics.
At some time in the next few months, unless the Government can miraculously right itself, the CPG are going to notice the alternative – you can’t pretend there is no Opposition Party with a looming election – and have to report on it. I’m already seeing signs of this, including on the ABC.
vic
Wasn’t Joyce elected as leader of the Country Party last night?
Why on earth would he be next to leave?
davidwh@858
Yes and turnbull will be looking to have morrison own as much of the blame as possible with any poor financial outcomes.
Was morrison set up regarding his fulsome advocacy of the GST etc ?
Were are all the Kevlar back-armour salespersons when you need them.
Sorry National Party!
ScoMo has been rolled again… this time re the Robert matter.
Malcolm ‘s not mucking around it seems with so many barnacles being removed.
Lol, one of the comments on the Roberts matter – “How many corrupt LNP Ministers does it take to change a Government?”
Lol, talk about an open ended question…
Tom
davidwh
[ Player One I don’t have a problem with the process used other than the fact they drew it out until after Parliament rose. The delay was a purely political exercise and we do deserve not to have to put up with a minister unfit to hold the position any longer than is necessary. ]
That was my main point. I was only surprised it came out so early in the day today. I was expecting them to announce his sacking tonight, or over the weekend. I may be wrong in thinking Robert screwed them by resigning early enough to make it headline news – but I wouldn’t put it past him to want to take some skin off Mal the Magnificent.
I don’t think Turnbull was weak just manipulative. ]
Mal had a golden opportunity to show some real leadership. There was never any doubt that Robert breached the guidelines. Mal doing what he did showed he simply didn’t have the gumption to act. Either that or he was afraid of the reaction of his own party.
Capital Hill have moved on to Bee Semen
Somebody listed this;
Speaking of which, this is the list of MPs forced out of the parliament or their party in the last 31 months:
Scott Driscoll (Liberal National, Qld)
Troy Buswell (Liberal, WA)
Chris Spence (Liberal, NSW)
Darren Webber (Liberal, NSW)
Garry Edwards (Liberal, NSW)
Andrew Cornwell (Liberal, NSW)
Tim Owen (Liberal, NSW)
Craig Baumann (Liberal, NSW)
Bart Bassett (Liberal, NSW)
Peter Dowling, (Liberal National Qld)
Marie Ficarra (Liberal, NSW)
Billy Gordon (Labor, Qld)
These are MPs sacked from the executive government:
Barry O’Farrell, (Liberal, NSW)
Arthur Sinodinos (Liberal, Federal)
Greg Pearce (Liberal, NSW)
Mike Gallacher (Liberal, NSW)
Chris Hartcher (Liberal, NSW)
Jo-Ann Miller (Labor, Qld)
Adem Somyurek, (Labor, Victoria)
Mal Brough (Liberal, Federal)
Jamie Briggs (Liberal, Federal)
And they try to make out the ALP and Unions are corrupt.
Tom
[Capital Hill have moved on to Bee Semen]
Clearly they think some people will get a buzz out of that.
WWP
My understanding is that inflation is the real constraint on a currency issuing gov, as you implied in your examples of steel or tax professionals. That is the difference between the minimum wage fight for $15 US and the Republican bullshit response of why don’t we just make it $100 then? It’s the inflation stupid (them not you)! If government spending is well targeted where the private sector has failed in some way then there should be little effect on inflation, and can be wound back if necessary.
IMACCA’S link at 826 is quite frightening. Optic Fibre will soon allow downloads thousands of times faster than copper – yet this country is going copper. Jesus, we are stuffed. Turnbull might survive a year or two as PM but in ten years time, people will be chasing him down the street with pitch-forks.
Wow. How many words can be used to describe the one event:
‘Sacked, resigned, dropped, cut, quit’
from the various online news sites. No wonder we can’t agree on the right term.
Perhaps GAAAAWWWN is the right word.
Further to my 886, the Guardian has the simple descriptive ‘loses job’.
ScoMo’s standing has taken a severe hit of late.
Malcolm’s now entrenched as Leader of the LP with the Abbott group a laughing stock and Morrison sulking in the corner with no-one to turn to…
dave
[ Was morrison set up regarding his fulsome advocacy of the GST etc ? ]
I’m not so sure anymore. Perhaps the leaking of Morrison’s GST modelling – where he asked the treasury to model returning the entire revenue from the GST increase as a tax cut – was deliberate. Could Morrison have been sending a signal that (a) he supports a GST rise, and (b) he intends for all of it to go to high income earners? Could this have been a message to the IPA, which is effectively the policy wing of the LNP?
Also, his support of Robert when it was clear the guy had abused his position. Could he have been sending a signal to the Monkey Pod?
Could Morrison be auditioning for the top job? If so, Mal had better watch his back. As I said before – happy days!
[Malcolm ‘s not mucking around it seems with so many barnacles being removed.]
Not mucking around? He just allowed the ALP to own the 1st 2 sitting weeks of the year. And that’s not partisan me talking, it’s people like PVO (who may not be a RWNJ, but he’s hardly an ALP mouthpiece).
Turnbull should be using his political capital, but instead he is completely fudging it. We have had the half-hearted support of the GST and a shonky minister, followed by inevitable capitulation. It’s all mucking around.
Bowen did a presser and stated that Morrison immediately leaked his disagreement with the PM over Stuart Robert.
Rex
[ Malcolm’s now entrenched as Leader of the LP with the Abbott group a laughing stock and Morrison sulking in the corner with no-one to turn to… ]
You really do live in la-la land, don’t you?
Question
PvO was lobbying for a GST hike. He throws the toys out of the cot when he doesn’t get what he wants.
A GST hike is a bad idea… and it’s a good thing that it seems to be off the table.
QUESTION – When the PM has to get up in Parliament and bullshit on about Cleanavent (after saying he was going to improve political discourse) you know he’s lostit.
Question
[ Turnbull should be using his political capital, but instead he is completely fudging it. ]
Mal parked his political capital in the Cayman Islands, where it is now a nice little earner. He won’t be declaring any of the income here in Australia – if he did that he would have to pay tax on it.
REX – It’s off the table because Bill Shorten made them take it off the table.
mattcargill: 3D printers ‘for the home hobbyist’ reach consumers https://t.co/8IaDG4ImEz via @ABCNews
Good point
[Bridget O’Flynn
Bridget O’Flynn – @BridgetOFlynn
.@pandymonium01 Can’t believe I’m saying this but at least Abbott fronted cameras. PM hasn’t been to #npc or had presser in his PM courtyard
6:30 PM – 11 Feb 2016
1 RETWEET]
victoria
Indeed a very good point. Its why the jelly meme is building. Press Gallery types have noticed
[A GST hike is a bad idea]
So why muck around for so bloody long about it? I feel sorry for all his supporters, who went in batting for the GST on his behalf, only to see him piss off out the back door. You have to be a contortionist to be a Turnbull supporter, he believes in everything and nothing.