Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Essential Research ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour, as respondents say yes to Australia Day and no to increased military involvement in the Middle East.

I’m afraid I won’t be able to treat you to the normal weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate update this week, but given the ongoing stability of the polling situation generally, you’re probably not missing much. We do, however, have the first fortnightly rolling average result for the year from Essential Research, last week’s result having been drawn from a single week’s sample. The Coalition’s two-party lead is up from 51-49 to 52-48, but the primary votes are unchanged at 44% for the Coalition, 35% for Labor and 10% for the Greens.

Other results from Essential Research show little change in perceptions of the state of the economy on two such results last year, with 28% rating it as good (up two from September) and 31% poor (down one), while 30% rate the economy as heading in the right direction (down four) versus 38% for wrong direction (down one). Scott Morrison is favoured better to handle the economy by 26% (down one), versus 19% for Chris Bowen (up one). Eighteen per cent favour increasing Australia’s military involvement in Syria and Iraq, with 34% wanting it decreased and 32% favouring no change. Respondents took a favourable view of Australia Day, which 56% rated “a day of national pride” against 22% who opted for two disapproving choices: “a day of reflection on the impact on indigenous people” (14%) and “irrelevant in the 21st century” (8%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,741 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 15 of 35
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  1. Re Bracks backing Josh Funder in Wills preselection battle:
    [It is this Byzantine and shadowy network of deals that Mr Bracks, who remains very popular in Victoria and is not regarded as a factional “animal”, referred to when urging locals to select Mr Funder, who is factionally unaligned.

    Mr Bracks co-authored a review of the Labor Party’s processes with fellow elder statesmen, Federal Senator John Faulkner and former NSW Labor Premier Bob Carr, which called for greater democracy and transparency in the party.]

  2. [ Cheers. Just makes Albanese seem the biggest hypocrite ever. ]

    And when he wins his seat by swatting an annoying Greens candidate, do you think he will care about what you think of him?? 🙂 Albo knows he will get the big majority of Greens preferences regardless of how robust he is with their candidate. Cheers. 🙂

  3. Peg

    Well I am pretty well against personal attacks at all times so I have to agree. I think personal attacks nearly always backfire, especially when Labor tries it. Not sure why. Use humour – far more devastating.

  7. [It goes to how the LNP operates and the public can see the waste of the Plebiscite.]

    Unless the plebiscite is brought forward to coincide with the election (and therefore saving $100 million) Turnbull will be crucified by Labor for the waste of money.

    It is often the things that matter less to most people (and marriage equality is one such issue) that brings voters to focus on underlying character issues. One example is the immense damage that abandoning an ETS did to Rudd. And I thought it was a fair decision at the time to abandon it in the face of entrenched opposition to his left and right by the Coalition and the Greens. I was surprised by the voter reaction but thought there was a lesson in it.

    Now Turnbull, whose popularity before becoming PM was built on his independent position on marriage equality and an ETS, is backing away from the very things that have defined him as a desirable Liberal PM. Labor’s strategy to defeat his popularity is based around showing him up as not standing for anything much but his own glory. Being the right’s instrument for kicking marriage equality into the long grass will feed that strategy very well – especially when coupled with the enormous price tag that will come with a plebiscite (should it ever eventuate).

  9. Imacca

    Actually I think Albo should encourgage then Greens to put up far left candidates, because it reduces any chance there might be of Liberals giving Greens preferences. For Albo and others the real danger for labor is a Greens/Lib preference swap. While very unlikely, should it happen, seats like Grayndler, Sydney, Banks and even Wentworth might fall to the Greens.

  10. The poor Greens. They’re doing us a ‘favour’ by putting up candidates.

    And then people Criticise their candidates – the hide of them.

    If this keep happening they’ll punish us by retreating up a tree.

  11. [Piccoli is actually a National. These days a distinction without a difference, I know.]

    Adrian Piccoli might very well be the first Nat with a real brain in his head in living memory.

  12. K17

    It feels good doesn’t it – giving pleasure 🙂

    Enjoy your day.

    Wonderful here in Melbourne, it’s cooler and less humid, rain glorious rain has been falling 🙂

  15. xavierdylan: PM Turnbull thinks that wasting money on a plebiscite is fine but on kids education is a waste of money. #priorities #Gonski

  19. Why Green supporters waste so much time on attacking Labor is beyond me.

    Given that the Greens are unlikely to ever gain a majority on the left side of politics – well at least not in the near to medium 20 years to come – I would have thought the focus of attack for the Greens is the LNP?

    Poking muck at Albanese or quibbling over some other Labor direction is okay from the position of minority which allows the luxury of intellectual and policy purity.

    There is some good stuff in Green policy, but unfortunately for them, they will unlikely ever to get to the Treasury benches to see such policy put into place.

    Green policy agenda advancement can only come when Labor gets back in.

    There is Buckley’s Hope for them when the LNP is in power.

  20. Oh, and for the record, the most recent candidate for Labor in the seat of Terrigal at the NSW State Election was a member of the FBEU. He definitely wasn’t a Socialist.

    So I wonder how The Greens candidate for Grayndler, a Socialist, is going to explain how The Greens are going to fund the Renationalisation of the Banks. 😀

  21. Tricot

    So said many Labor people when Adam Bandt ran against Tanner for Melbourne.

    Do not mistake individual seat fights for anything else but that.

  22. I heard Albo. He was quite funny. He pointed out that he hadn’t seen the Green guy much but that was probably because Albo didn’t hang out at Socialist Alliance anti-capitalism conferences.

    It was a bit iffy given Albo’s penchant for espousing his Left credentials but I’m giving him a tick as it was humorous. 😀

  23. CTar12

    [The poor Greens. They’re doing us a ‘favour’ by putting up candidates.]

    I’ll do the country a favour by not voting for them.

    The Greens like to project the notion of being above politics. But they do shady deals with the best/worst of them. And I don’t recall any of their party conferences being open to the public.

    Having said that, I know quite a number of Greens voters. They’re all terribly nice people, but they live in an alternative universe.

  26. [642
    C@tmomma

    Chris Bowen wants to be Treasurer. End of.]

    He will make a far better Treasurer than the incumbent, who is an economically illiterate ideologue now completely out of his depth.

  27. briefly

    I think Joel Fitzgibbon would make a better treasurer than Morrison.
    For a simple reason. No ideological rusted on to stupid polices like GST increases. He would likely be a puppet in the control of Treasury as Treasurer with his economic knowledge. A good thing meaning Treasury would be running financial policy.

  31. [Do not mistake individual seat fights for anything else but that.]

    Which is why I’m surprised that Greens think the guy trying to take Grayndler off Albanese should be a protected species.

  32. guytaur @ 728

    [No disrespect for Fitzgibbon intended. ]

    Fitzgibbon carries the conviction that he is destined for greatness and nothing else. One of the weakest members of Labor’s front bench. Disrespect him all you want.

  33. Mal on 3AW:

    [The Prime Minister said Mr Shorten’s decision to fund the six-year Gonski school funding deal in full epitomised the “reckless spend and borrow philosophy” Labor showed when last in office. NSW Education Minister Adrian Piccoli – a strong supporter of the Gonski reforms – has also questioned whether Labor can fund its school promises.

    Mr Turnbull confirmed that increasing the GST is “certainly being actively considered by the government” as it plans a package of tax changes.

    “What governments should seek to do is constantly or regularly review the mix of taxes to ensure that they raise the money they need but in a way that provides the least brake, the least negative impact on economic activity,” Mr Turnbull said.

    “We’re not seeking to do tax reform for tax reform’s sake. We’re not trying to get an economics prize or a tax prize. What we’re seeking to do is to ensure that every single lever of government is pulling in the direction of more jobs and more growth.”]

    The way I read this is:
    “We shall continue to emphasise big-spending, wasteful Labor and insist that helping corporates with tax cuts is helping the poor.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/dont-expect-a-fistful-of-dollars-election-campaign-malcolm-turnbull-20160128-gmgkeq.html

  34. As we’ve been talking Holocaust recently, Eichmann’s letter asking for clemency has been released. Basically says I was following orders and therefore not responsible.

    Here’s a really good article on it. “The Banality of Evil” by Arendt has been much dismissed as she seems to let Eichmann off much too easily.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/28/adolf-eichmann-final-message-architects-holocaust-evil

    Still more questions than answers.

  35. [Now Turnbull, whose popularity before becoming PM was built on his independent position on marriage equality and an ETS, is backing away from the very things that have defined him as a desirable Liberal PM. ]

    I would have said his popularity ‘in part’ is down to those things and his ability to fool a group of voters.

    Very interesting this morning on ABC the risk of a downgrade to the credit rating had him owning Hockey’s cuts. Even the stupidest of the Turnbull fans are going to see through him if he continues to marry himself to Hockey’s failed budget and wasted years.

    His real strength was the number of people prepared to give him a fresh start and pretend that the previous two years hadn’t happened.

    If I were Labor and had the money I’d run a series of attack ads now. They would probably take a backlash in the polls and definitely in the media but I think it would be well worth it.

    I’d have a spot on the ways Turnbull has already gone soft on tax cheats, because he is essentially one of them and a spot on his ongoing support for the worst of the Abbott’s cuts. Third and final one would be him supporting removal of the carbon price, supporting manus and not supporting the republic.

    Malcolm’s not who you think he is.

    As I said I would expect the initial media reaction to a precampaign attack ad to be very negative and for initial polling reaction to be away from labor but it would be a valuable investment.

  36. TPOF

    The Greens are not saying that. You saying that is election hyperbole.

    The Greens are pointing out the hypocrisy of Albo attacking a unionist for being left as a personal not a policy attack.

    Agree with the strategy or not they do have a valid point.

    I think its the wrong strategy and will give the LNP some lines in the National campaign to use against Labor if it does nothing else.

  37. [727
    guytaur]

    With all due respect to Treasury, they should be directed by the Government rather than the other way around. The problem with the Liberals is they are ideologically obsessed. They basically do not understand the economy and have no understanding of the essential role of Government in either carrying out essential investment or in building egalitarian opportunity.

  40. Other than those people who see the plebiscite as a means of avoiding and, perhaps, suppressing the move to marriage equality, this will resound:

    [Dear Mr Malcolm Turnbull,

    My name is Isabella. I am an 11-year-old girl and I have gay parents (two Mums).

    I am struggling to see a point in the plebiscite that you are holding in 2017. It is a complete waste of time, money, and will most certainly fracture some of the positive views that people have about you. That 160 million dollars that you are willing to waste on a pointless plebiscite is totally unnecessary. I mean, the public has already expressed their views and made it quite clear that they want same-sex marriage for Australia. I may not be the Prime Minister, but even I know that Australian could use that money elsewhere.

    If an 11 year old girl can see that, why can’t you?

    All the homeless people you walk past on the streets treasure the few pennies they possess while you are ready to throw millions of dollars right down the drain. And you say you want to help our community. You might be fooling the rest of the country but you are not fooling me.]

    And it will resound more with those voters who actually don’t care one way or another than with those who are desperate to see marriage equality become a reality.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/01/28/girl-open-letter-to-prime-minister-same-sex-marriage-plebiscite_n_9097664.html?utm_hp_ref=australia

  41. briefly

    I fully agree. I was just pointing out how poor I think Morrison is doing by picking a Labor member who I think would be bad choice as Treasurer and why that shows how poor Morrison is.

  42. [733
    lizzie

    Mal on 3AW:

    The Prime Minister said Mr Shorten’s decision to fund the six-year Gonski school funding deal in full epitomised the “reckless spend and borrow philosophy” Labor showed when last in office. NSW Education Minister Adrian Piccoli – a strong supporter of the Gonski reforms – has also questioned whether Labor can fund its school promises.

    Mr Turnbull confirmed that increasing the GST is “certainly being actively considered by the government” as it plans a package of tax changes.]

    Labor will campaign from now til the election against any increase to the GST. Labor will also continue to campaign for improved spending in education and health, and for the defense of incomes for working people. We will do this and we will make up ground on the LNP. We have everything to gain.

  43. It is often the things that matter less to most people (and marriage equality is one such issue) that brings voters to focus on underlying character issues. One example is the immense damage that abandoning an ETS did to Rudd. And I thought it was a fair decision at the time to abandon it in the face of entrenched opposition to his left and right by the Coalition and the Greens. I was surprised by the voter reaction but thought there was a lesson in it.

    Wrong lesson. The ETS actually mattered to most voters. It was Labor’s signature domestic policy initiative in the 2007 campaign – it generated a lot of enthusiasm about Labor’s fitness to govern on 21st century issues. When Labor abandoned the ‘greatest moral and economic challenge of our time’ it was a massive breach of faith.

  44. 709

    Liberal preferences in Wentworth are not going to be distributed in the foreseeable future and if they were, it would be because of a Liberal leaning independent who would get the vast majority of Liberal preferences.

    In Wentworth it is ALP preferences, rather than Liberal Preferences, the Greens need to win.

  45. [Labor will campaign from now til the election against any increase to the GST. Labor will also continue to campaign for improved spending in education and health, and for the defense of incomes for working people. We will do this and we will make up ground on the LNP. We have everything to gain.]

    Yep.

  47. [Labor will campaign from now til the election against any increase to the GST. Labor will also continue to campaign for improved spending in education and health, and for the defense of incomes for working people. We will do this and we will make up ground on the LNP. We have everything to gain.]

    They do this and they will be smashed, it is a complete misread of the economic situation and national mood.

  50. SwannyQLD: MT & Tea Partiers wave goodbye to at least $26Bn over 4 yrs in corp tax evasion & oppose productivity enhancing Gonski reforms #auspol

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