I’m afraid I won’t be able to treat you to the normal weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate update this week, but given the ongoing stability of the polling situation generally, you’re probably not missing much. We do, however, have the first fortnightly rolling average result for the year from Essential Research, last week’s result having been drawn from a single week’s sample. The Coalition’s two-party lead is up from 51-49 to 52-48, but the primary votes are unchanged at 44% for the Coalition, 35% for Labor and 10% for the Greens.
Other results from Essential Research show little change in perceptions of the state of the economy on two such results last year, with 28% rating it as good (up two from September) and 31% poor (down one), while 30% rate the economy as heading in the right direction (down four) versus 38% for wrong direction (down one). Scott Morrison is favoured better to handle the economy by 26% (down one), versus 19% for Chris Bowen (up one). Eighteen per cent favour increasing Australia’s military involvement in Syria and Iraq, with 34% wanting it decreased and 32% favouring no change. Respondents took a favourable view of Australia Day, which 56% rated “a day of national pride” against 22% who opted for two disapproving choices: “a day of reflection on the impact on indigenous people” (14%) and “irrelevant in the 21st century” (8%).
[
poroti
Posted Thursday, January 28, 2016 at 8:14 pm | Permalink
Douglas and Milko
Engineers are “trained” for conformity/conservatism. Doing things as they have always been done, because it works, is highly desirable. Makes for fewer bridge or building collapses etc. New methods are a scary concept.
]
It was not always like that; but it is well accepted we could no longer send man to the moon.
WestGate bridge; brilliant concept; brilliant engineer ( in my view) people died.
frednk@449
Climate change science is not related to the discipline of engineering other than where engineers are required to include the effects of climate change into their designs. Even then, many types of engineering e.g. electronics engineering, may not have any considerations at all.
Just read “The cult of the arsehole”.
Who is Richard Cooke? Perhaps a pseudonym for Puffy? Or maybe confessions?
Any other guesses?
[Any other guesses?]
How about at least three quarters of the Parliamentary Labor Party in June 2010?
bemused
[ Who is Richard Cooke? Perhaps a pseudonym for Puffy? Or maybe confessions? ]
Do you really wonder why people find you so obnoxious?
Evening. 🙂 I’ve just come back from listening intently to the radio while I chuck the local paper out the car window and I think I have discerned another area where Turnbull seems to be lacking in the skills necessary to be an effective Prime Minister.
He is no good at effective strategic political attack.
Howard was a master of belittling the Opposition’s ideas. Abbott was just brutal, like a junkyard dog. Turnbull is a shmuck.
So I see that Labor’s policy announcement today to fund the final 2 years of Gonski has been announced. And to all the smart alecks trying to do the Tories work for them and asking ‘where’s the money going to come from to pay for it?’, well the answer to that is from the increased tobacco excise and from already announced multinational tax compliance measures.
But back to Malcolm and his political weakness. So today was the first full Cabinet meeting of the year. Thus you would think that the supposed sharpest tools in the Coalition shed would have discussed Labor’s Gonski announcement and so developed a line of attack to hit back at them with.
And what did we get from Simon Birmingham, the Education Minister?
One of the lamest political attacks on a policy I have heard since I was running for School Captain and my opponent tried to attack me for being too brainy! (This was a Year 6 Primary School Captain contest so arguments tended to be a bit simplistic 🙂 )
Anyhoo, so what was the best the brightest Coalition minds could come up with?
‘Who said spending money on children’s education meant they got a better education?’
Yep. That’s it.
No mention of how the Gonski panel exhaustively examined and proved that adequate targeted funding does improve educational outcomes for ALL our children, especially those who are disabled or with Special Needs, and so enabling them to reach their full potential, instead of abandoning them to a backwater with no way out.
Nope. Just an unsophisticated assertion from Birmingham and a vague reference to the Coalition’s Non-Policy of expanded class sizes for povo Public Schools plus some pablum about the importance of the curriculum.
Well, if that’s the case, Simon, that spending money on children’s education doesn’t guarantee successful outcomes, wouldn’t it logically follow that the less money you give to schools, the better they will do!?!
I guess when you don’t really want to spend money on education and you just want to flog the lot off to your well-heeled mates it makes sense. Because the private sector always does everything better, eh? And they will spend less money doing it! QED!
And these guys are going to wipe the floor in the upcoming election with the Labor Party!?!
They better be buying the best election advertising that taxpayer $ can buy to dress this capitalist pig of a government up for market.
I guess that’s what Rupert must be wanting to tell Tony, “Suck it up, princess, and take one for the team. You can exact your revenge after the election.”
Otherwise, they’ve got no hope from my casual reading of their inauspicious start to the political year today.
Player One@455
They have no sense of humour? 😆
Bemused it is probable not smart to pick a fight with an engineer as to what engineering is. Generally speaking we are sober and belingerant
All bridges; dams and building designs have to stand up to the environment; you do not build a house for cyclone conditions in temperate climates.
A shed built in the country is designed for a higher wind loading than one in the city; one built in Queensland is stronger than one built in Victoria. When you select your transformer (my discipline) you have to specify a maximum operating temperatures (they last 50 years) your switch-gear maximum humidity (30 years).
Climate change will have a major impact on engineering; very much so on those that deal with flood mitigation and wind loadings.
[So I see that Labor’s policy announcement today to fund the final 2 years of Gonski has been announced. And to all the smart alecks trying to do the Tories work for them and asking ‘where’s the money going to come from to pay for it?’, well the answer to that is from the increased tobacco excise and from already announced multinational tax compliance measures.]
You are so right, my apologies for being aware of what the Libs would say, and hoping Bill could counter it, obviously it would be better not to think about what the libs would say, and in fact Bill shouldn’t have had an answer ready, when asked a surprise ‘how are you going to pay for this’, something like “Urrrh, ummmm, we don’t know it’ll come out of the budget” no doubt would have been much more effective than what Bill said.
And the libs said ‘Yeah this is just going to blow the budget deficit out.’
The great unknown is does your average swinging voter believe Bill or the libs? Has labor given them any reason to believe they’ll be less useless at balancing a budget than last time?
Perhaps Bill should just walk away from a press conference any time he is asked an economics question?
…. lets now move onto other ideas to be even more ignorant and stupid, because not having an answer to how things are going to be funded is Pauline Hanson while totally drunk stupid …
COTMOMMA – Of course they left it to Birmingham. Prince Mal doesn’t want to come within a million miles of attacking Gonski. That might affect his polling, and once his polling dips, that will be even more red-meat for his internal enemies in the party. So, basically, he’s neutered himself.
After the next election, if Malcolm wins, a civil war will break out, designed to drive down his poll numbers, and once they go down, he will be made surplus to requirements and sco-mo or tones will take over. Simple.
frednk@458
I qualified in Communications Engineering, so apart from one subject ‘Applied Mechanics’ there was no content to do with materials or things mechanical.
I would happily defer to your superior expertise on those matters.
It was my understanding that structures were built to standards and that similarly things like transformers would be built to standards or environmental requirements.
So the engineers job becomes one of designing to meet the standards and any additional customer requirements.
With climate change, there will need to be revision of things like building standards and standards for anything else that will be affected by climate change.
So agreeing what the new standards need to contain is where much of the argument with any denialists will occur.
That’s my take on it anyway and I would be interested to hear yours and any other engineers.
Richard Cooke makes a good point in The Monthly. We shouldn’t give toxic managers a pass because of their exceptional work ethic and ambition. We should give them jobs that don’t involve managing other people. I think it’s absurd to consider Kevin Rudd for the job of UN Secretary-General.
WWP @ 459
As Zoomster pointed out the Coalition response was politically underwhelming. Pretty much along the lines of we can’t be certain whether more money will produce better outcomes (but we won’t mention the actual comprehensive Gonski report) so we will continue to spend no more money than we have, mainly on the rich because their schools have better outcomes than the schools the poor go to and therefore Government money gets a better return there.
However, just so those who are already disadvantaged do not feel left out, the Coalition will give them a huge collection of platitudes and simplistic nostrums that they can use to better themselves and when they get to be as productive as the rich schools in terms of NAPLANs and ATARs we will say “See. It didn’t need more spending; just a bit of commitment”. And if they don’t improve we can say “See, they really aren’t trying. They are not making the most of what money we give them so why throw good after bad?”.
WeWantPaul@459
The answer you so desperately seek.
“Funding will be provided from the budget in line with Labor’s priorities.
That is not a pseudonym for Puffy. I would never say such kind things about KR.
Bemused; while I’m being grumpy; what is your prediction for the maximum Melbourne temperature in 50 years. You sit at your KB and be a KB worrier so you don’t have to make the call; but I do.
Are we going to limit the global rise to 2 degrees or do the RWNJ win; is the dry band that exists between summer and winter rainfall going to move down and sit over Melbourne or not; come on make a call.
Bonus points if you can find the modelling done by the CSRIO about 20 years ago but has now been buried no doubt thanks to the RWNJs.
You do have the option of being a climate change denier and claim the historic records are still valid.
Come on make a call; not some wishy washy, may be this or maybe that; a figure within a degree; put your name to it and sign the specification.
Think about it; you might gain some insight into why engineers so want climate change not to be real.
[As Zoomster pointed out the Coalition response was politically underwhelming. ]
To a bunch of diehard labor and greens supporters it was a total joke. To a diehard liberal audience Labor was the joke. How it was received by the soft and swinging voters is all that matters this was just the start. This election is about who Australia trusts to lead the country through very difficult and unpredictable economic times, and the liberals start with a mile lead on economic credibility.
In the last debate of the election, where Mal smiles into the camera and says ‘Yes all of labors promises are nice, we would all have everything if we could afford, but we can’t afford it. Labor is really good at spending money but you just can’t trust them in these tough economic times, only we have the discipline and the focus to protect Australia through uncertain economic times.’
Or something with 3000 extra words.
It will all come down to whether or not people want to trust Labor with the economy. Each big spending promise makes getting that trust harder not easier.
Puff
[That is not a pseudonym for Puffy. I would never say such kind things about KR.]
noice comeback 😉
[The answer you so desperately seek.
“Funding will be provided from the budget in line with Labor’s priorities.]
Yeah if you are trying to smash labor back to a telephone box to rebuild you’d be advocating that.
Bemused and co
Engineers are by definition good at maths and this often goes with two conflicting talents, one a rigind adherence to logic and the other a sort of native raw intelligence and capacity for lateral thought.
However when I was at Uni the engineers were generally conservative. I shared maths and physics classes with them. They were rarely in the protest movements of the Vietnam war era.
Perhaps what is not known but I once studied it for an essay, Engineers were by and large Protestant (NSW Anderson report I think). Catholic boys rarely chose engineering until the 80s.
The other thing is that engineers are usually into building things putting them in direct conflict with greenies and Nimby types. This reinforces a sort of anti green red neck attitude.
I have one son who is an engineer. he is fairly conservative and becoming more so over time (but not as RW as my formerly lefty son who is now a corprate lawyer).
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@465
Good on you puffy, your sense of humour is your most endearing feature. 😆
WeWantPaul @ 259,
Oh, did I forget to point out that, when asked, Bill Shorten came out with exactly the answer that I outlined wrt funding sources for the final 2 years of Gonski?
Come in Spinner! 😀
..and it was C@momma, not me.
frednk@466
I don’t propose to respond to your challenges for the reason that I do believe climate change is real and it lies outside my areas of expertise to make such estimates. I have to rely on others.
What I will say is that were I to be building a new house and wanting it to last 50+ years, I would go for maximum insulation including at least double glazed windows, and have it designed to withstand cyclonic winds.
I would also include water tanks, and solar panels.
WeWantPaul@469
Rubbish.
WeWantPaul,
And I loved this bit:
‘ And the libs said ‘Yeah this is just going to blow the budget deficit out.’
That is simply risible. The Coalition have proved, since they lied their way back into power, that they would win the Olympic Gold Medal in Budget Deficit Blowouts!
So, are you trying to say that the electorate is so stupid they will deny reality and instead believe a whole load of hogwash from the Coalition? Because. Malcolm?
Are you also trying to say that Labor are so inept that they will be functionally unable to point out that simple fact to the electorate?
Which WA Liberal Party Branch do you belong to again?
Labor will have to bypass the mainstream media to get their message out.
[Oh, did I forget to point out that, when asked, Bill Shorten came out with exactly the answer that I outlined wrt funding sources for the final 2 years of Gonski?]
That is all I wanted and I conceded before lunch Perth time that Bill had delivered why did you need to spit the dummy and have a sledge at me tonight? Obviously if that rocks your boat go for it, but I’m a bit confused now.
C@tmomma@476
I think you’re onto something there. 😛
WWP @ 467
You may be right. 35 years ago I would have totally agreed with you. But I think the world is a different place now and voters think differently. I don’t think hip pocket platitudes will cut it with the surgical precision they once did.
Obviously time will tell, but voters are a lot more cynical than they were. Mainly they are willing to elect the mob they think is the more competent. And a key sign of competence is that they have their attention on the job at hand, not on playing little inside power games with each other. At the moment Labor is not playing any inside power games; the Liberals are playing lots.
I also think that a sizeable portion of the population in the centre (socially, economically and politically) will not react like Pavlov’s dogs to the promise of a ‘tax cut’ with a balancing great big new tax increase. I think there is more concern than politicians give the public credit for that people actually want to see a balancing social construction commitment from the government. Not outright socialism. But certainly not ‘you get to keep all of your income and society can go to hell’.
[‘Who said spending money on children’s education meant they got a better education?’ ]
Then close all the private schools that charge tens of thousands a year.
I suppose if you put the comment in terms of the tens of thousands the elite/wealthy spend on their kids education..he could be right?? (hehehe)
[That is simply risible. The Coalition have proved, since they lied their way back into power, that they would win the Olympic Gold Medal in Budget Deficit Blowouts!
So, are you trying to say that the electorate is so stupid they will deny reality and instead believe a whole load of hogwash from the Coalition? Because. Malcolm?]
That is an excellent point and an excellent question but the answer, as far as we can see it in current polls seems to be ‘yes because Malcolm is sufficient’.
[Are you also trying to say that Labor are so inept that they will be functionally unable to point out that simple fact to the electorate?
Which WA Liberal Party Branch do you belong to again?]
Yeah Labor has a track record of being pretty inept in selling achievements and rebutting stupid lies by the liberals.
I’m not a member of any party currently, I was a Labor member, State Exec Delegate, Campaign director, preselection candidate, at different times, but that is all in the past, I have better things to do than kiss the ass of absolute morons like Joe Bullock. Even playing here is better than being in the same club as Joe Bullock.
[
bemused
Posted Thursday, January 28, 2016 at 9:52 pm | Permalink
frednk@466
…….
I don’t propose to respond to your challenges for the reason that I do believe climate change is real and it lies outside my areas of expertise to make such estimates. I have to rely on others.
]
Well engineers don’t have the option of walking away; unless they deny climate change.
My own view is Engineering is applied science and to deny what science is saying is to abandon the profession.
[I also think that a sizeable portion of the population in the centre (socially, economically and politically) will not react like Pavlov’s dogs to the promise of a ‘tax cut’ with a balancing great big new tax increase. I think there is more concern than politicians give the public credit for that people actually want to see a balancing social construction commitment from the government. Not outright socialism. But certainly not ‘you get to keep all of your income and society can go to hell’.]
I hope you are right.
I do not want to rain on the ALP parade, but if any of you think that the education announcement will win many votes, you are in dream land.
Gonski funding is a great idea and should be supported, but as a vote winner it is boring as bat droppings. It is just a way of allocating money and as many parents will be bothered that thie little darlin’s school will miss out as will those whose schools get extra funding.
I might add that if you look at those ATAR scores for teacher training, the disadvantaged kids may be better off staying at home and using the Net. I can think of nothing more likely to ENTRENCH disadvantage if a poorly educated teacher, who failed high school, is allowed loose on kids struggling with school work. It sets up a role model of failure and poor performance as well as not providing the educational and academic excellence disadvantages kids need to overcome their many obstacles. unfortunately the Gonski reforms, which focus on additional teaching resources may do more harm than good if the additional resources are people with a very, very poor educational standard themselves. it might be positive for the very youngest children, but post 8 years age or so, you need talented well educated teachers.
frednk@483
I thought I had indicated that I pretty much agreed with you.
WeWantPaul @ 467,
‘ This election is about who Australia trusts to lead the country through very difficult and unpredictable economic times, and the liberals start with a mile lead on economic credibility. ‘
Mate, I know the WA water tastes like crap but how long has it been that Colin has been putting Liberal Kool Aid into it?
The Federal Coalition government have taken the country backwards economically since they were elected in 2013. The only federal government to have successfully steered the country through tough economic times has been the federal Labor government. Liberals know how to spend money. They do not know how to conserve it or make it for the country.
Their Trade Agreements are shite.
They don’t realise that a well-educated country is one who can unearth talented individuals from all walks of life, not just the Private Schools they all attended.
They wouldn’t know National Income-generating Infrastructure if it bit them on their Big Swinging Dicks!
All they can think of when it comes to ‘Tax Reform’ is squeezing the welfare recipients and the working poor until the pips squeak! They’ve even abandoned the Tax White Paper and the Tax Green Paper process because Economic Geography graduate, Scott Morrison, doesn’t know which way is up when it comes to running the Treasury Department and the National Accounts. He knows all about smart aleck one-liners and constructing a political artifice. But that’s about it. However, the Budget we will get will be read by him but be by Dr Martin Parkinson and that extreme Neo Liberal git Turnbull has hidden away in his office.
Like I said, the Liberals will have the best ads money can buy in the election, and in this social media-soaked, soft propaganda era that might be enough, again.
Which I will agree with you about. The bit about ‘Flash as a Rat with a Gold Tooth’ Turnbull turning to the camera and mouthing patent untruths being enough to drag his sorry lot of incompetents over the election line.
Though I hope people wake up to what fools they are being taken for by these coves long before that.
Engineers.
There seems a lot of generalisation going on here.
Engineers come in a wide variety of bowel motions.
[I do not want to rain on the ALP parade, but if any of you think that the education announcement will win many votes, you are in dream land.]
I could be wrong but I think today was about campaigns and volunteers. We are supposed to ring up and volunteer to help. They have my number if they ask I will, so long as i can stand the candidate, but they decided not ring, I’m guessing I upset some of the clowns. Perhaps the State Secretary, probably others.
[Though I hope people wake up to what fools they are being taken for by these coves long before that.]
Me too.
Bill can stand at the pulpit and preach to the 20 – 30 percent who’d vote for noone else come hell or high water, or he can go out into the streets and alleys and try to find another 21 – 31 percent to like win an election.
It is sad but the people in the Church not only can be ignored, they should be ignored.
WWP
I am sure they will ring. I did not get a call, although I got a robo call the other day.
Yes I guess Gonski is a good call to get out the party faithful.
[Engineers.
There seems a lot of generalisation going on here.
Engineers come in a wide variety of bowel motions.]
But none of them socially acceptable!
I should apologise at my Uni the Law Students and Engineering Students have a long long rivalry and inter-faculty events that Law hasn’t won since before Lord Denning was borne.
[But none of them socially acceptable!]
You know of a bowel movement that is socially acceptable?
Maybe this one….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auqrV9g4JA4
WeWantPaul@490
Who is your candidate?
Not every policy can be a vote winner – indeed, sometimes very good, essential policy is precisely the opposite.
Not every action of the LOTO is designed with winning votes in mind, either – well, not in isolation.
Obviously Labor has to have a policy around school education. Obviously that has to be released at some stage. Indeed, one could argue that releasing it now shows that it isn’t regarded as cataclysmic; true vote winning policies are best saved for closer to an election.
As a candidate, at this point in the cycle I was busy building up an image of myself for the electorate. To do that, you don’t rely on one announcement or one action, but on a series of consistent messages which, taken together, paints a very simple but clear picture, along the nature of ‘honest and reliable’ or ‘passionate and concerned’.
So Shorten and Labor atm should be concentrating on establishing an image of themselves in the public mind which they want to be the background to the main campaign, closer to the election.
[
Simon Katich
Posted Thursday, January 28, 2016 at 10:14 pm | Permalink
Engineers.
There seems a lot of generalisation going on here.
Engineers come in a wide variety of bowel motions.
]
But humans compartmentalise; take counting; one cow; two cows; what a load of nonsense; no two cows are the same.
[WWP
I am sure they will ring. I did not get a call, although I got a robo call the other day.
Yes I guess Gonski is a good call to get out the party faithful.]
Nah i did upset a few people. The first time I wasn’t asked to help the local booth was manned by entirely non-locals, not one of the team that had shown out for the 4 elections before that one was asked to help. There’d been a factional shift and I might have called some important people clowns and correctly told them if they did certain stupid things, which they did, that they’d lose government, which they did. I do miss victory parties, but Labor hasn’t had a real one of those since I was at the heart of the Kevin 07 victory party.
The ALP can hardly criticise the government for supporting a campaign by Mr Rudd to be UN Secretary-General, when their representatives supported Mrs Bronwyn Bishop’s campaign to head the Inter-Parliamentary Union. Talk about gutless.
“It was reported on Thursday that the Labor members would not support Mrs Bishop but Senator Sterle told Fairfax Media this was not the case.
“It gave me heartburn but I did vote for her. I lost sleep over it but at the end of the day I’m an Aussie,” Senator Sterle said. “I couldn’t come over here and not vote for an Aussie.”
Labor MPs Joel Fitzgibbon and Michael Danby, as well as former Labor Senate president John Hogg, were actively supporting Mrs Bishop’s campaign.”
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bronwyn-bishop-loses-bid-for-international-position-20141016-117db0.html
WeWantPaul@498
Maybe it was incompetence rather than a conspiracy.
The ALP in Victoria does seem to be getting better organised, but in the past a great deal of knowledge and lists of contacts etc just seemed to get lost between elections.
Terrible really.