Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Slight movement to Labor in Essential Research’s first poll for the year, which also finds that Labor and Coalition voters feel almost exactly the same way about the US presidential election.

Essential Research has opened its account for 2016 with a poll that records a one-point shift away from the Coalition off what was already a very low base for them, relative to the other pollsters. Compared with the last poll in mid-December, the Coalition is down a point to 44%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 35% and 10%. This being the first result of the year, the result encompasses 1011 respondents polled from Friday to Monday, rather than Essential’s usual two-week rolling average. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings for the leaders, which find Malcolm Turnbull down five on approval to 51% and up two on disapproval to 25%, while Bill Shorten is exactly unchanged at 27% and 47% respectively. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is down from 54-15 to 51-18.

The poll also has a straightforward question on favoured candidate to win the US presidential elections, offering four named options: Hillary Clinton on 40%, Donald Trump on 12%, Bernie Sanders on 6% and Ted Cruz on 2%, leaving 8% for “someone else” and 32% for “don’t know”. Remarkably, breakdowns by party support show statistically identical results for Labor and Coalition supporters (but nearly ten times as much support for Sanders among Greens voters). Further questions find consistent agreement that sexism and discrimination against women exists to at least some extent in workplaces, media, politics, advertising and sport (from 58% to 62% opting for a lot or some), but less so in schools, where 44% opted for a lot or some, and 41% for a little or none.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

688 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  5. I at an age where I see something in the News about an ‘elderly man’ (normally something bad if it got in the News) who turns out to be / to have been younger than me.

  8. lizzie

    [ Having (I think) more experience than you at being ‘elderly’, I’d put retirement for pollies and all professionals at 70. ]

    I bow to your elder wisdom on that one 🙂

    An age limit of 70 would still do the job of removing doddering old fools like Bishop and Ruddock from parliament.

  9. MTBW@482

    CTar1

    Wyatt Roy was only twenty one when he entered Parliament what life experience do you reckon had.

    My argument is that they have to live a life in other areas before they enter.

    Picking strawberries?

  10. S777

    [I at an age where I see something in the News about an ‘elderly man’ (normally something bad if it got in the News) who turns out to be / to have been younger than me.]

    I was surprised that Keven Andrews is only 60.

  13. GG @503

    Woe unto you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! for ye are like unto whited sepulchres, which indeed appear beautiful outward, but are within full of dead men’s bones, and of all uncleanness.

    Minus the appearance of beauty outside, of course…

  14. I dont believe in astrological charts, but this person also predicted the time line Abbott would be dumped based on hia astrological chart

    [CONCLUSION

    From looking at Abbott’s chart his plan to topple Turnbull at Easter, 2016 won’t last the distance. It seems that by mid – end of March events will conspire to expose the angry authoritarian Abbott. This may be the beginning of the split in LNP with Abbott leading a far right new party.

    By the way, I hope he does try to win leadership back from Turnbull because the chaos that will ensue from that action will be marvelous to behold. Abbott is deluded and has many traits of a sociopath.]

    The astrological reading above may only happen because he has crazy egotistic tendencies. The more he fucks up, the more likely we will see the end of LNP government – the party of the 1%ers.

  20. EVERY TIME you hear about the Gov’s brave decision to end “corporate welfare” by shutting down the automotive industry, you should remind yourself that the approx. $500m/yr subsidies previously provided to the industry are roughly equal to approx. $500m/yr in novated leasing subsidies supporting the car leasing industry.

  21. I’m older than Kevin Andrews? How depressing.

    Unlike Kevin, I don’t use Grecian 2000, even though applying it daily or whatever wouldn’t take me long.

  28. MTBW

    [Anyone who denies Climate Change is an idiot it is just on forty in Sydney and looking to be the same tomorrow can’t stand it.]

    Anyone who denies climate change is indeed an idiot. But having a 40 degree day is by itself not evidence of climate change. Having more higher-than-average-temperature days per year is evidence (which is happening).

    But I agree that the heat today is oppressive here in Sydney. Also seems humid, which is making things quite unpleasant. I’m heading home soon for a refreshing G&T.

  29. K17 @480

    Support for the car industry was de facto subsidy of the mining industry, in that the mining industry heavily recruited experienced electrical and other trades from car manufacturing.

    Indeed attempts by the car industry to reduce poaching of its workers was the major driver in favour of industrial agreements with worker-friendly terms that certain people like to complain about.

    Now the mining boom is over and moreover the majors (Rio in particular) have invested heavily in automation leading some to believe that the next boom won’t need this source of high skilled trades (the Liberal party would very much like this to be true, of course), but it’s more likely that they’ll be the only workers needed (to maintain the automated equipment, exactly as the auto electricians maintain the robots)

  33. Sydney Airport topped out at 40.3 today. Most of the Sydney area, including the breezy official ‘Sydney’ site at Observatory Hill, reached 37 to 39. Yesterday at the Airport it got to 33.3, tomorrow is forecast to reach 37. On the 14th the Airport reached 40.6.

    Nothing to Perthians and Adeladians I suppose, but this is humid heat.

    And yet since Christmas week we’ve also had runs of cool, often cloudy days and lots of rain – about 260mm (10 inches) since December 21. Sydney had a total of 40 minutes sunshine in the first four days of the SCG Test, an effort that would embarrass Manchester or Leeds.

    From the end of this week we enter a period of unsettled, possibly stormy weather.

    Here’s one for Andrew Bolt and TBA. On January 6, the maximum at Sydney (Observatory Hill) was 18.6, the lowest January maximum since 1978. I’m sure that ‘proves’ that 97% of Climate Scientists are wrong.

  42. [Mr Smith has been approached by senior figures in the aviation industry urging him to stand against Mrs Bishop, one of his childhood friends, Fairfax Media can reveal.

    According to Mr Smith, the group paid for polling of voters in Mackellar, which found the entrepreneur and former Australian of the year would win the seat if he stood as an independent.

    Mrs Bishop, 73, has re-nominated and senior Liberal sources believe she is almost certain to be re-endorsed by local party members during the current preselection process.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/dick-smith-eyes-bid-to-unseat-bronwyn-bishop-20160120-gma385.html#ixzz3xlOyGlwy
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  43. kakuru

    [But I agree that the heat today is oppressive here in Sydney. Also seems humid, which is making things quite unpleasant. I’m heading home soon for a refreshing G&T.]

    I just cannot stand days like this and I was the same as a kid.

    Unlike today when we were kids we would be as red as anything on Maroubra Beach which was seen to be very cool until we came home and the blisters started to burn.

  50. [So Media Watch is standing by an old story from 2013.
    *YAWN*]

    They had too really, the righties never believed they were doing more than unfair hatch jobs, if all the lefties start to take the same view they might was well shut it down. They could probably shut down factcheck at the sametime. But I’ve always enjoyed plant America and I think it comes back soon if it hasn’t already

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