Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Slight movement to Labor in Essential Research’s first poll for the year, which also finds that Labor and Coalition voters feel almost exactly the same way about the US presidential election.

Essential Research has opened its account for 2016 with a poll that records a one-point shift away from the Coalition off what was already a very low base for them, relative to the other pollsters. Compared with the last poll in mid-December, the Coalition is down a point to 44%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 35% and 10%. This being the first result of the year, the result encompasses 1011 respondents polled from Friday to Monday, rather than Essential’s usual two-week rolling average. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings for the leaders, which find Malcolm Turnbull down five on approval to 51% and up two on disapproval to 25%, while Bill Shorten is exactly unchanged at 27% and 47% respectively. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is down from 54-15 to 51-18.

The poll also has a straightforward question on favoured candidate to win the US presidential elections, offering four named options: Hillary Clinton on 40%, Donald Trump on 12%, Bernie Sanders on 6% and Ted Cruz on 2%, leaving 8% for “someone else” and 32% for “don’t know”. Remarkably, breakdowns by party support show statistically identical results for Labor and Coalition supporters (but nearly ten times as much support for Sanders among Greens voters). Further questions find consistent agreement that sexism and discrimination against women exists to at least some extent in workplaces, media, politics, advertising and sport (from 58% to 62% opting for a lot or some), but less so in schools, where 44% opted for a lot or some, and 41% for a little or none.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

688 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. PUP may be pooped:

    ‘ But this morning Fairfax Media reported some curious goings-on in the company’s accounts six months or so ago:

    ‘ “A little over six months before its collapse on Monday, Clive Palmer’s Queensland Nickel wrote up the value of its assets by more than $1 billion, even as the price of nickel plunged … The accounts disclose a change in accounting policy which paved the way for the asset revaluation which helped to wipe out the accumulated losses on the balance sheet. Rather than the accounts reflecting the cost of its plant and equipment less depreciation, it now uses a ‘fair value’ approach, less depreciation.”

    Reverse the changes and questions arise about Queensland Nickel’s solvency and viability, and whether the company continued to trade while insolvent. Reports of $290,000 in payments to the Palmer United Party in December can be reversed by the administrators because they occurred within six months of the date of the appointment of administrations. If the political party can’t repay those funds, then its future will be suspect. WA iron ore is, of course, another disaster area for Palmer. The bad news is mounting.’

  2. Wtf?

    [As well as potentially paying out sacked workers’ entitlements, taxpayers could be forced to stump up tens of millions of dollars to clean up the site of Clive Palmer’s north Queensland refinery if the company cannot trade its way out of voluntary administration.

    Key points:
    The clean-up bill at the Queensland Nickel may reach $40 million, Government says
    Opposition claims it could reach $300 million
    Taxpayers could be forced to foot the cost of rehabilitation
    The Environment Department does not hold any bond for the site
    Government sources have told the ABC that the cost of remediating the Queensland Nickel site, at Yabulu, could be anywhere from $25 million to $40 million.

    Former owner BHP believed the environmental clean-up cost may exceed $100 million, while the Queensland Opposition said the clean up bill could be “upwards of $300 million”.]

  3. [The accounts disclose a change in accounting policy which paved the way for the asset revaluation which helped to wipe out the accumulated losses on the balance sheet. Rather than the accounts reflecting the cost of its plant and equipment less depreciation, it now uses a ‘fair value’ approach, less depreciation.]

    I’m sure they received sound professional advice supporting the fair market value of the assets 🙂

  4. [Speaking to ABC Radio on Wednesday, opposition leader Bill Shorten gave us a taste of his near-legendary zingers, which we have been sorely missing over the parliament break.

    “I don’t know about you, but I, like many Australians, share the relief that Tony Abbott is gone. Although I noticed today that a bit like the Terminator he’s vowing to have Tony Abbott 2.0 — he’ll be back,” Shorten said.]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/01/19/tony-abbott-prime-minister_n_9022112.html

  5. [I’m sure they received sound professional advice supporting the fair market value of the assets :)]

    Something we agree on David! The ‘standard’ in Accounting Standard is either meant ironically or an in joke or both. Bit like the ‘independent’ in independent auditor appointed by and paid for by the board.

    Of course you’d put accounting standards in tax law!

  6. court challenge to a freedom of information ruling that his office needed to process a request for his ministerial diary.

    [Freedom of information: George Brandis’s diary has its day in court
    Read more
    The move, likely to cost thousands of dollars in legal fees, followed a request from shadow attorney general Mark Dreyfus for the diary entries.

    The list Dreyfus requested was simply an itemised extract of the meetings Brandis had taken, and contained little to no detail about the substance of those meetings.

    Dreyfus said it was extraordinary Brandis would go to “such great lengths to avoid dealing with such a simple FOI request”.

    The attorney general’s office initially ruled that processing the request would substantially interfere with the minister’s functions.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jan/20/george-brandis-challenges-ruling-process-request-release-diary?CMP=share_btn_tw

  7. Pyne does a reversi to save his arse:

    Lenore Taylor ‏@lenoretaylor 3m3 minutes ago

    Christopher Pyne backs Belgian bid to save Holden plant in South Australia, says govt subsidies would be available http://gu.com/p/4gxbg/stw

    Lenore Taylor ‏@lenoretaylor 2m2 minutes ago

    Australia refuses to recognise marriage of British man’s husband who died on honeymoon http://gu.com/p/4gxb3/stw

    Australia continues to be cruel, and inhuman.

  8. They now splashing money while they are cutting services….

    Political Alert ‏@political_alert 36s36 seconds ago

    Employment Minister @SenatorCash has announced $500k for career transitioning assistance to support workers at Queensland Nickel #auspol

  9. Bernie Sanders is in with a chance of winning the first two contests in the Democratic nomination process. In the Real Clear Politics average of polls Hillary Clinton leads in Iowa by 4 points (47 to 43), and Bernie Sanders leads in New Hampshire by 12 points (51 to 39). Sanders is doing a great job considering his lack of conventional charisma and the mainstream bias against his message. I think that if Elizabeth Warren had run she would have wiped the floor with Hillary. People want an alternative to the bipartisan and thoroughly misguided neoliberal dogma that has increased inequality and reduced living standards for thirty years now with no obvious end in sight. It’s heartening to see someone campaign on a strong analysis of what ails economies in the neoliberal age.

  10. The USA for you:

    SecuriTay ‏@SwiftOnSecurity 36s37 seconds ago

    An MSNBC guest said Trump supporters are “childless single men who masturbate to anime.”

    They’re not single, they have waifus.

  11. So a political entity with a 21 year old drinking has a public health body that says ‘hey we are right.’

    Big surprise.

    An ignorant jaded middle-aged man with tickets on himself ranks his bullshit gut opinion ahead of scientific research.

    That’s not a surprise.

  12. Nicholas’

    [Bernie Sanders leads in New Hampshire by 12 points (51 to 39). Sanders is doing a great job considering his lack of conventional charisma and the mainstream bias against his message.]

    I think that voters are getting sick to death of charisma they want to know that their leaders are working for them and not themselves. The Brits did a similar thing with Jeremy Corbyn.

  13. Latest from Nick

    [Nick Ross
    Nick Ross – ‏@NickRossTech

    Still catching up with messages and media requests, sorry. Did a 7 hour interview yesterday. I suspect you’ll all know when it appears.]

  14. MTBW

    [ I think that voters are getting sick to death of charisma they want to know that their leaders are working for them and not themselves. ]

    Not in Australia – as usual, we are a year or two behind the rest of the world because we have to wait for Murdoch to tell us what we think.

  15. P1

    Murdoch is looking so old he may not have long to go but I think that a lot of our politicians are far too young to enter politics what does a twenty one year old really understand about the world whatever uni degrees or whatever they have.

  16. [An ignorant jaded middle-aged man with tickets on himself ranks his bullshit gut opinion ahead of scientific research.

    That’s not a surprise.
    ]

    I’d been keen to know what opinion of mine I rated above scientific research.

    If you are going to be abuse please try and get your foundation right.

    You shouldn’t have been able to get to middle aged with your world view but other than that you seem to be confusing us. It is you who consistently rate your opinion above all thinking people in the galaxy.

    I simply pointed out that a public health authority findings consistent with public health policy isn’t all that surprising. I also pointed out that a public health authority in a muslim country probably had research affirming prohibition.

    I think someone else summarised research with a different outcome, which you rejected by implication.

    Please try harder.

  17. Re the General Motors story:
    1. Sounds to me as if the Belgian might be just a front to let GM stay without losing face;
    2. What’s the point of trying to keep GM in SA open when Toyota has said it’s going too. There are no economies of scale.

  18. MTBW

    [I think that a lot of our politicians are far too young to enter politics what does a twenty one year old really understand about the world whatever uni degrees or whatever they have.]

    How many Fed politicians are under 30?

  19. MTBW

    [ … a lot of our politicians are far too young to enter politics … ]

    Agree absolutely. The US has a minimum age on all major political posts (president, senator, etc). I think it is a good idea.

    I’d suggest a minimum age of 30 to enter parliament, 35 to become a minister, 40 to become PM.

  20. Dave – The bizarre thing is that even Robert Gottliebsen said, two years ago, that it was nuts to close these plants precisely because we would need the jobs at the end of the mining boom. Christ almighty.

  21. The problem for Pyne and colleagues is that voters in South Australia know exactly who to blame for all the job losses from the car industry.

    Pyne coming out now and pretending he was always for the car industry will not convince any South Australian voters who will remember come election day.

  22. CTar1

    Wyatt Roy was only twenty one when he entered Parliament what life experience do you reckon had.

    My argument is that they have to live a life in other areas before they enter.

  23. Pyne announced today that the Liberals would be providing South and Victoria with vote-buying subsidies to open up a cart construction industry.

    Pyne said that this showed agility and that North Korea had expressed an interest in joint ventures.

    Truss opined that it was good to see that Australia is not only going to the dogs, it is going back to horses as well.

    Pyne pointed out that there were all sorts of opportunities for innovative harness making so that gangs of unemployed could do work for the dole by pulling carts, buggies, charabancs, and sulkies filled with rich people on their way to beach picnics and an on winery tours.

    Hunt supported Pyne, pointing out that carbon sequestered in carts is likely to stay there longer than if it were used to fuel wood-powered electricity generators.

    Pyne and Hunt have announced a committee that will investigate the possible of technology transfer from the cart construction industry to the newfangled wooden submarines being designed by around 5,000 Defence staff and Mr Abbott.

    The new Minister for Communications who normally does not say anything stated that horses and carts would be competitive with copper in terms of speed and band-width and that this would create economic growth and jobs.

  24. MTBW

    [My argument is that they have to live a life in other areas before they enter.]

    I don’t disagree. I’m curious how many are particularly young Roy is the only one that comes to mind.

  25. Geoff Pearson ‏@GCobber99 · 10m10 minutes ago
    Govt continues to completely overstate potential job growth from trade agreements #auspol

  26. [Simmering factional tensions in the NSW Liberals over federal preselections are being stoked by an email campaign to party members attacking Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and ruing the departure of Tony Abbott.

    Senior Liberal figures are watching with growing outrage as Penrith councillor and party member Marcus Cornish distributes his email in a campaign so far covering the seats of Lindsay, Mr Abbott’s seat of Warringah, Mr Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth and Bennelong.

    It is understood disciplinary action against Cr Cornish for what may be the misuse of official membership lists is being explored by some on the Liberal Party state executive.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberal-councillors-attack-on-malcolm-turnbull-inflames-factional-tensions-20160119-gm9n3n.html#ixzz3xl7ehK3C
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  27. MBTW

    Actually, thinking about age in general – there should be a maximum age as for parliamentarians as well.

    I’d suggest 65. That would have weeded out ridiculous fossils like Ruddock and Bishop the Elder.

  28. P1

    Surely you are not accusing Bronnie of wanting to get more money are you?

    I think in these days people are living longer and I would say seventy is enough.

  29. Player One

    Having (I think) more experience than you at being ‘elderly’, I’d put retirement for pollies and all professionals at 70.

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