I have published a new seat of detailed state breakdowns from BludgerTrack, which points to next to no regional variation in the shift to the Coalition on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch, with the possible exception of it being particularly pronounced in Victoria.
Essential Research will resume its publication of weekly federal polling numbers next week – in the meantime, it has treated us to state voting intention results. These are aggregated from Essential’s polling from October through to December, with samples ranging from 797 in South Australia to 3205 in New South Wales, and follow on from a recent state polling onslaught from Newspoll, which you can read all about in the entries below this one. Essential’s results in New South Wales and Victoria aligned very closely with Newspoll, with the Coalition leading 56-44 in the former and Labor leading 53-47 in the latter. However, Labor was credited with a 54-46 lead in South Australia, compared with 51-49 in Newspoll, but was level with the Liberal National Party in Queensland, where Newspoll had Labor leading 52-48. The biggest disrepancy was from Western Australia, where Newspoll had Labor surging to a lead of 53-47, but Essential has the Liberal-National government with its nose in front, by 51-49. For more on the situation in Western Australia, I had a paywalled article in Crikey on Tuesday.
In preselection news, the finalisation of the redistribution process, together with the determination of an increasingly ascendant moderate faction to flex its muscles, is making life extremely interesting for the Liberal Party in New South Wales (as detailed in another of my paywalled articles in Crikey). As well as the threat posed to factional conservative Craig Kelly in Hughes, which was covered here last week, the following brush fires are breaking out, or threatening to:
• Most contentiously, moderates are talking up the prospect that Hume MP Angus Taylor will come under challenge from Russell Matheson, member for the neighbouring seat of Macarthur. The redistribution will transfer the Sydney fringe centre of Camden from Macarthur to Hume, and push Macarthur northwards into Labor-voting suburbs, cutting its margin from 11.3% to 3.3%. Camden is a power base of a local faction identified as the “southern cartel”, which includes Matheson and Wollondilly MP Jai Rowell. It had earlier been part of the Right, but recently shifted allegiance to the moderates, and its presence with Hume has weakened Taylor’s position, despite him having a considerably greater reputation as a rising talent than Matheson. There were suggestions that Taylor might react to such a challenge by joining the Nationals, but he rejected the notion yesterday. Even before talk of a challenge, Taylor had expressed his displeasure with the redistribution, which makes the electorate considerably less rural in character.
• Another member in the moderates’ sights is Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, a Senator and ideological warrior of the Right. Sarah Martin of The Australian reports that the moderates are “absolutely” confident they could see Fierravanti-Wells make way for Richard Shields, “a former deputy state director and head of government relations for the Insurance Council of Australia”.
• Should she choose not to retire, Bronwyn Bishop is set to face a challenge in Mackellar from Jason Falinski, a long-standing moderate operative who has worked for John Hewson and Malcolm Turnbull, and been state president of the Australian Republican Movement. However, Sarah Martin’s report in The Australian says state upper house MP Natasha McLaren-Jones might be another challenger, which is a bit hard to process given that her husband, Damien Jones, is Bishop’s chief-of-staff and has sometimes been mentioned as her favoured successor. Another potential candidate is said to be Jim Longley, who held the state seat of Pittwater from 1986 to 1996, and challenged Bishop for preselection unsuccessfully before the 2013 election.
• Also likely to face preselection challenges if they don’t retire are Philip Ruddock, in Berowra, and Senator Bill Heffernan. Sarah Martin reports that Heffernan is under pressure to make way for Hollie Hughes, the party’s country vice-president. Tony Abbott, on the other hand, is expected to recontest Warringah.
• Gilmore MP Ann Sudmalis faces a challenge from Grant Schultz, son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz, but is “expected to survive”.
Meanwhile, south of the border:
• Royce Millar of The Age reports on a big field of potential contestants for Liberal preselection in the south-eastern Melbourne seat of Dunkley, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Bruce Billson. Included are Paul Peulich, mayor of Kingston and son of veteran state MP Inga Peulich; Donna Bauer, who held the marginal bayside seat of Carrum from 2010 to 2014; Peter Angelico, founder of Dandenong steel bending company Kazed; Nathan Hersey, a member of Billson’s staff; Theo Zographos, a Monash councillor; Matt Berry, a former staffer to troublesome state Frankston MP Geoff Shaw; and Chris Crewther, who ran for the Nationals-held seat of Mallee in 2013 and now runs a consultancy in Frankston.
• The Victorian Liberal Party is sorting out a replacement for Senator Michael Ronaldson, who is quitting politics after being demoted to the back bench by Malcolm Turnbull, along with the order of its Senate ticket. Richard Willingham of Fairfax reports that candidates for the vacancy include James Paterson, deputy director of the Institute of Public Affairs, and Sean Armistead, a manager at Crown Casino and the Liberals’ unsuccessful candidate for Frankston at the 2014 state election. It appears that whoever gets the gig would have to contest a half-Senate election from the dicey number three position, since support is building for Jane Hume, a senior policy adviser for Australian Super who won preselection for the position last year, to be promoted to the top spot. The second position on the ticket is reserved for the Nationals, whose member is Bridget McKenzie.
[ Source:
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jan/11/new-zealands-offer-to-take-150-offshore-refugees-a-year-never-taken-up
The Lefties have to stop with the lies… just stop. ]
Did you actually read the article??
[ “It is for Australia to take up the offer to utilise the up to 150 places and to date they have not done so,” he said. “As such, the places are reallocated to the annual quota and most recently the places were given to Syrian refugees.” ]
so the Australian Govt is stopping it happening.
And “travel documents”??
[ some refugees on Nauru have recently been granted travel documents, which would allow them to travel to another country that was willing to admit them. ]
Note: “that was willing to admit them”.
You really are a nasty little piece of idiot pond scum TBA.
Really. 🙁
lowlife coward racist, and the abuse starts right on cue as soon as they are confronted with any common sense, or even any view that is different from theirs.
TBA
They couldn’t go to NZ because the Australian Govt wouldn’t let them you numbnut.
No other country (except Cambodia at a squillion per head) wants anything to do with Australia’s refugee problem.
Steelydan@1502
Common sense? You are not referring to TBA and yourself surely?
More like uncommon idiocy.
@TBA/1496
And Turnbull/Dutton refused NZ offer.
Boerwar @ 1476: Presumably if the Immigration and Border Force people didn’t have their own system of medals, there’d be nothing with which to reward their modern heroes: the concentration camp managers, the SES officers whose names have oh so conveniently been redacted from the public version of the report into the defaming of Save the Children and its staff, and so on. The Council of the Order of Australia would have too much sense of hygiene to reward such types.
I see the actual term us was Really a low life keyboard warrior.””
The rest is how you see yourself
[lowlife coward racist, and the abuse starts right on cue as soon as they are confronted with any common sense, or even any view that is different from theirs.]
I can see how after posting racist posts, which are then right called racist (you are supposed to call out bad behaviour when you see it aren’t you) you might confuse the motivation of non-racist people that call you out. They are calling you out because you are posting racist things not because they disagree with you.
It is quite telling you have nothing but ‘oh dear me they called me names just because I was expressing racist views.’
If you think “lowlife coward racist” is abuse on PB, you haven’t been here very long.
I have been on PB since John Howard was PM, “lowlife coward racist” is probably a term of endearment. 😛
pedant
Border Farce medals uber alles?
[ lowlife coward racist, ]
I dont think your’e a lowlife coward racist, just stupidly judgmental to swallow and run the scared weird little guy line of “they should have stayed and fought” line from the comfort of you computer desk here in Australia.
I’m sure you have it in you somewhere to contribute reasoned thought to a discussion, but its common nonsense you are peddling on this topic, not common sense.
[“Canada is not taking unaccompanied males, unless they are gay, they are taking families at the rate of 800 people a day.”]
They aren’t actually, but please keep the lies coming I love shooting them down.
Yeah about Dear Leader Justins promise to bring in 25,000 by the end of 2015?
And then he said… no.. no… it’s 10,000 now?
Well actually Canada resettled less than 6,000 in 2015
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/31/canada-misses-target-10000-syrian-refugees-justin-trudeau
This is the problem with the lefties… reality smashes your “idealism” for six every time. Every Time.
Just me, not sure what what TBA’s view on whether he agrees with the Canadian Government policy on refugee intake or not.
[I’m sure you have it in you somewhere to contribute reasoned thought to a discussion, but its common nonsense you are peddling on this topic, not common sense.]
It is common racist nonsense. Racist nonsense needs to be called out, particularly when it tries to robe itself in ‘reasonable’ garb.
pedant @1506:
Spot on. Plus you have to have some kind of recognition system to reinforce the view that what these people are doing is good, even though they must feel crap about what they do.
[“Note: “that was willing to admit them”.”]
YES, just like every other citizen of the world.
You have NO right to travel to any country you want. You have to get permission first from the country you wish to enter.
You guys need to get this idea out of your head that these people are Australians. They aren’t. They now have travel documents from Nauru and can travel as Naruan refugees to where ever will allow them to travel. It has as much to do with Australia as an Indian travelling on an Indian passport.
Frankly if nobody wants to take them that says more about their behaviour in the last few years than anything to do with Australia.
None of us is perfect, if I was being sexist either because I was fooled by someone dressing up something that was essentially sexist to look superficially reasonable, or because I just had something in me that was essentially sexist but I haven’t ever appreciated that, I’d want to be called out and named as sexist. That way I could grow and learn.
Yeah I might try and argue facts, ideas, etc I might get defensive … but I should be called out.
[ not sure what what TBA’s view on whether he agrees ]
His controller probably hasn’t told him his actual opinion yet.
TBA = ToBeAdvised. what to say, when, eat, when to pee…….
We are waiting for someone to forget to tell him to breathe. That will be a hoot! 🙂
What the Canadian Govt says….
Progress update
•10,790 Syrian refugees have arrived in Canada
• 5,563 refugee applications have been finalized
•14,687 resettlement applications in progress
Now knowing that numbers are confusing for righties like TBA who believed Hockey when he said eleventy was a number
the total to date is;;;;;;31,040
Boerwar @ 1510: It’s a clear sign of folie de grandeur in leadership of Immigration and the Border Force. Your Soviet photos captured it perfectly. Most departments will reward their high performers with a certificate; no problem with that. Spending 1.3 million on medals is just nuts. I hope Senator Wong demands a list of all recipients, together with an explanation of what they did to earn the medals, who decided to give them, and the cost per recipient.
I’ve heard nothing but bad things about the culture there now, and it needs to be looked at good and hard.
TBA
New Zealand’s immigration minister, Michael Woodhouse, said it was up to Australia to resettle people from its offshore detention camps and that New Zealand remained willing to assist.
“It is for Australia to take up the offer to utilise the up to 150 places and to date they have not done so,” he said.
Are you now calling the conservative government in NZ Liars???
confessions @ 1515: Sadly, I hear that a lot of the people who would “feel crap about what they do” have left, and have been replaced by the sorts of individuals who rather enjoy that sort of thing.
[You guys need to get this idea out of your head that these people are Australians. They aren’t. They now have travel documents from Nauru and can travel as Naruan refugees to where ever ]
the only person saying anything about the being/not being Aussies is you. The rest is made up in your head…put the tinfoil cap back on
pedant@1520
Yes, the names of all recipients need to be recorded for posterity on a “Roll of Infamy”. 🙁
TBA
You really should stop linking articles that disprove the point you are trying to make. Or maybe read the article if you are able.
Interesting. Following from the article TBA linked.
There are kids being abused on Nauru and at least some of them and their families could have been resettled in NZ, simply for the asking by the Aust Govt.
WTF does this tell you about ScoMo and Dutton?? Nothing that wont make you vomit.
10790 arrived which means ARRIVED
5563 have been finalized does finalized mean settled or have some been rejected.
14687 applications are in progress which of course according to you none are the same.
The Joe eleventy calculator is in good hands!
It’s rather like what happened at Abu Graib. Remember the lovely Lynndie England? I think it was Boris Johnson who described her at the time as “trailer trash from the Appalachians”.
[You have NO right to travel to any country you want. You have to get permission first from the country you wish to enter.]
You haven’t read the actual treaty have you … hilariously wrong, hilariously stupid …
[The Contracting States shall not impose penalties, on account of their illegal entry or presence, on refugees who, coming directly from a territory where their life or freedom was threatened in the sense of article 1, enter or are present in their territory without authorization, provided they present themselves without delay to the authorities and show good cause for their illegal entry or presence.
2. The Contracting States shall not apply to the movements of such refugees restrictions other than those which are necessary and such restrictions shall only be applied until their status in the country is regularized or they obtain admission into another country. The Contracting States shall allow such refugees a reasonable period and all the necessary facilities to obtain admission into another country.]
[silmaj
Posted Monday]
[Well actually Canada resettled less than 6,000 in 2015]
is what was being responded to..
Hang on??
NZ will take 150 /yr from our camps for nix. Our govt wont let it happen.
Cambodia will take 4…total…if we pay them tens of millions per person. Our govt sends ScoMo over there to pop the champagne.
Is it just me or is there something wrong here??
[“There are kids being abused on Nauru and at least some of them and their families could have been resettled in NZ, simply for the asking by the Aust Govt.”]
Aust Govt doesn’t run New Zealands immigration system nor their Government, therefore we have no say on whether they go to NZ or not.
Once again.. has nothing to do with Australia.
Australia’s preference is for them never to be resettled in Aus or NZ, but ultimately this is up to the NZ PM as last time I checked NZ is a sovereign nation.
We don’t control NZ’s immigration system so the whole argument is pointless.
It’s Australia’s preference not to allow them to go to NZ as this is just putting sugar back on the table, but at the end of the day it’s NZ’s call.
Here I should give up but I will continue to try and help.
Racism, the belief that all members of each race possess characteristics, abilities, or qualities specific to that race, especially so as to distinguish it as inferior or superior to another race or races,
So obviously racism does not make sense we are all the same. racism is an error in a persons thought processes someone thinking they are superior than another race, just plain dumb.
But I will fess up to not wanting people to bring in any part of there culture that was a reason for the state they came from failing. They can come just not the parts of there culture we have taken centuries to overcome and by the way we still have an awful way to go.
pedant:
Yes you’re probably right. Another way the public service is traduced by conservative governments.
[Article 3 non-discrimination The Contracting States shall apply the provisions of this Convention to refugees without discrimination as to race, religion or country of origin.
]
Hmmm interesting provision … lets just take the Christians … oh wait …
1530
Actual settlement is reasonably important. Did they settle more or are arrivals just as important. Or do we just say anyone seeking is automatically a number?
TBA
[It’s Australia’s preference not to allow them to go to NZ as this is just putting sugar back on the table, but at the end of the day it’s NZ’s call]
This is from the original article you posted. NZ have already made the call and said send them. It is the useless ScotMo/Dudton who have preferred to spend $30 million per refugees to send them to Cambodia…
[New Zealand’s immigration minister, Michael Woodhouse, said it was up to Australia to resettle people from its offshore detention camps and that New Zealand remained willing to assist.
“It is for Australia to take up the offer to utilise the up to 150 places and to date they have not done so,” he said.]
[ Aust Govt doesn’t run New Zealands immigration system nor their Government, therefore we have no say on whether they go to NZ or not. ]
You should probably just write tonight off you blithering idiot and stop just going the bigger shovel.
Try reading and comprehending the article YOU linked to in support of one of YOUR arguments and you may start to get some idea of why you get treated with such contempt here.
[But I will fess up to not wanting people to bring in any part of there culture that was a reason for the state they came from failing. They can come just not the parts of there culture we have taken centuries to overcome and by the way we still have an awful way to go.]
Ahhh the old hide the racism behind a thin veneer of culture spin trick. Perhaps if you were specific about the cultural trait you objected to and very careful not to be propagating the old crop the woman and children out of the picture and see how many around the world fall for it trick …
Can anyone translate 1534 into English for me please?
Boats are a third order issue. Most posters here aren’t paranoid about brown people on boats. In a world where things are so bad people take to leaky boats for a better life, we should just do our best to address our part of the problem consistent with our interests.
Easy? Of course not. We can’t fix the world’s problems, but we can meet our international obligations, act like a civilised nation and generally and be a help. Instead, our so-called ‘leaders’ are exploiting the issue to distract the punters from the fact that their Government wants to screw them royally to leave more for their mates.
your joking right WWP Democracy, rule of law, vote for woman, shit the list could go on forever
[Can anyone translate 1534 into English for me please?]
Here goes my attempt:
[OK so I’ve posted ideas that flow directly from deliberately falsified pictures, that many many many people would quite right consider simply ignorant racist rants. However I might post a whole lot of racist ideas but I’m not really racist at all I’m culturalist and these cultures are inferior and dangerous and should be sent straight to the gas chambers for a final solution, so see I’m the good guy not racist at all.]
TBA
[Aust Govt doesn’t run New Zealands immigration system nor their Government]
.
[Australia’s preference is for them never to be resettled in Aus or NZ]
Can you spot the plogic problem ? Or do you think ‘Straya should run NZ’s immigration system ?
SUSC,
Once again not a truthful series of events.
Gillard was in a sticky situation, with tens of thousands of illegals on the books. New Zealand being the good friends they are made an offer to Gillard… probably feeling sorry for the complete mess she had made… to take 150 of these boatpeople from Australia per year.
On the glorious victory of the Abbott Government this offer was made null and void.
Whats more.. it was no longer needed nor wanted.
The truth is that NZ doesn’t need Australia’s permission to offer visas to people on Nauru, the truth is they don’t want to. Now you can decide what reasons those might be(don’t want to upset Australia, maybe was hoping for a bit of a payback money from Australia, or brownie points from our Government) but at the end of the day Australia can’t stop NZ issuing these people Visas because we don’t run the NZ Government.
It’s telling though that I notice no other country has offered them Visas either, so ask yourself why that is.
[your joking right WWP Democracy, rule of law, vote for woman, shit the list could go on forever ]
I’m not sure what you are suggesting there. Want to elaborate?
TBA
NZ have made the offer.
New Zealand’s immigration minister, Michael Woodhouse, said it was up to Australia to resettle people from its offshore detention camps and that New Zealand remained willing to assist.
“It is for Australia to take up the offer to utilise the up to 150 places and to date they have not done so,” he said.
you calling the Minister in NZ a liar?
pendant 1500
I am not aware of the ‘picnic basket’ incident. Did Carlton dine on truffle infused lamb in front of starving locals, or something?
Thanks WWP, thought it was something like that.