New year’s news snippets

Some festive season preselection news, plus one minor scrap of new polling.

With another two weeks to go before the break in the festive season polling drought:

• The closest thing we’ve had to a new poll over the break has been a ReachTEL survey of Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, conducted for the Australia Institute. The automated phone poll of 743 respondents was conducted on December 17, and found support for the Liberals at 62.1% (up from 60.9% at the September 2013 election), the Greens at 16.1% (up from 15.5%) and Labor at 14.6% (down from 19.3%). The poll also found 50.9% believed Tony Abbott should retire from politics, with no time frame specified, while 35.4% preferring that he remain. When asked if his departure would make them more likely to vote Liberal, 36.7% said it would, compared with 17.5% who opted for less likely. A hike in the goods and services tax from 10% and 15% recorded 39.4% support and 46.5% opposition, whereas support for “gradually transitioning to 100 per cent renewable energy by the year 2030” was at 77.2%, with 16.7% opposed.

• James Robertson at Fairfax reports that the factional warfare engulfing the New South Wales Liberal Party is posing a threat to Craig Kelly, Liberal member for the seat of Hughes in Sydney’s outer south. Kelly would appear to have been undermined by a redistribution proposal that excises the Liverpool end of the electorate, reportedly home to two branches loyal to him and the arch-conservative tendency he represents, and adds a moderate-controlled branch at the Sutherland end of the seat. The most likely challenger is said to be Kent Johns, an influential moderate who sits on Sutherland Shire Council, followed by Liverpool mayor Ned Mannoun. Further complicating matters is a membership recruitment drive that conservatives have been conducting among the Macedonian community, which led the party’s moderate-dominated state executive to freeze membership at the Liverpool branch.

• Sarah Martin of The Australian reports on “heightened speculation” that dumped minister Jamie Briggs may be set to vacate his seat of Mayo at the election. The report says that Right faction MPs were meeting to discuss a possible successor, amid fears his ongoing presence could exacerbate the threat posed in the seat by the Nick Xenophon Team. The NXT has fortuitously preselected a disaffected former staffer to Briggs, Rebekha Sharkie.

• Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports that six candidates will seek Liberal preselection for the seat of Adelaide, held for Labor by Kate Ellis, at a ballot of 500 party members to be held on February 6. Houssam Abiad, deputy Lord Mayor of Adelaide, had been attracting the most attention, but the report says the “front-runners” are David Colovic, a partner with HWL Ebsworth Lawyers, and Beth Loveday, a dentist. The report identifies the other contenders as Shaun Osborn, a policeman, Kent Aughey, a commercial consultant, and Emma Flowerdew, a small businesswoman.

• Matthew Dixon of the Ballarat Courier reports two candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Ballarat, held for Labor by Catherine King: Nick Shady, a farmer and mental health advocate, and Sarah Wade, a lawyer. The report also says the Nationals are planning to field candidates in all Labor-held Victorian regional seats, which is to say Ballarat, Bendigo and McEwen.

UPDATE: Channel Seven in Adelaide has results of a ReachTEL poll from Jamie Briggs’ electorate of Mayo, with better results than he might have feared: a Liberal primary vote of 43.9%, compared with 53.8% at the 2013 election, with Labor on 17.2% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 15.4%. This probably includes an unallocated undecided result of around 8%, suggesting all concerned would in fact be a few points higher – with Briggs close enough to 50% to get him home, even if the NXT got ahead of Labor. A two-party Liberal-versus-Labor result shows Briggs leading 59-41, compared with 62.5-37.5 at the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,337 comments on “New year’s news snippets”

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  2. confessions

    Re Corbyn. Even The Torygraph are using the word hacked..

    [Jeremy Corbyn’s Twitter account hacked to say some very rude things indeed]
    Jeremy Corbyn’s Twitter account hacked to say some very rude things indeed

  3. [Now you can’t even purchase a litre of milk, a kilo of flour, or a box of corn flakes in our suburb. You have to get into the car, then onto the No. 1 busiest road in Australia (Pennant Hills Rd.) and spend 45 minutes making a round trip of 4 kilometres to the local Coles.]

    That’s disgraceful and completely goes against what planners and urban designers are trying to avoid!

    Why is it that this kind of thing ALWAYS happens with Liberal govts: they make pre-election promises of sweetness and light and everybody happy, yet the reality post-election is totally different.

  6. Good Morning

    The Acting PM may be saying nothing but that is not so with other parties.

    Today Bill Shorten is back on deck. Political holidays are over.

  8. Zoomster

    Zoomster. Why be argumentative over a light hearted peice of banter. I was JOKING with Confessions. There is no reason why an adult cannot enjoy the guilty pleasure of eating the batter.

    I think that is why I added I did NOT eat the cake batter, when I used a set of old ingredients. That is why I MADE the cake. Some broken eggs than had to be cooked, old yoghurt that smelled OK but as I am not much of a yoghurt eater anyway this seemed like a good way to COOK it. A mango too good to chuck.

    If however I am making a cake for others to eat, then I use fresh milk, eggs, butter and flour. No problems whatever eating the batter (but face/fingers can get messy so best not do it in front of others if you are vain). Do not make cake near by a neat freak as you cry in anguish as the delicious batter is washed down sink. Arrr!!!!

  9. dtt

    [Why be argumentative over a light hearted peice of banter.]

    I wasn’t. You asked a question. I answered it. It’s called manners.

  11. Watching king parrots and custard headed rosellas take it in turns to eat yesterday’s seed offerings, – outside office window.

  12. For those that missed it Senator Jackie Lambie has said Medicare changes will happen over her dead body.

    So now we know votes against are ALP Greens and One Crossbench. The LNP budget for 2016 is getting harder to do.

  14. Zoomster

    More seriously, if you cannot eat the batter from making a cake, then there is a REAL problem with our food safety. Eggs, milk, butter should be able to be eaten raw, if not we have a problem. Lightly poached or fried eggs would be health hazards, as would a glass of milk. Mayonaise might be banned, as would egg nog.

    As we move further away from the farm gate and food is stored longer, then the risk of salmonella and other contaminants increases.

    I think there will be two issues with packet cake mixes – firstly the insurance issue ie a “just in case” warning which bears no relation to reality. The second, more serious possibility is that the eggs are sourced from a less than reliable place eg overseas etc, where safety cannot be guaranteed.

  15. DTT

    Food Standards Australia New Zealand (FSANZ) has conducted a scientific assessment of the risks to public health
    and safety that may arise from the consumption of eggs and egg products in Australia. The assessment considered
    chemical and microbiological hazards and the main findings are:
    • Risks associated with chemical hazards in eggs and egg products are low.
    • Salmonella is the principal microorganism of human health concern associated with eggs and egg products.
    • The frequency of Salmonella-contaminated eggs in Australia is very low. Despite this, there is a potential risk of
    illness from consumption of raw or lightly-cooked eggs, or the consumption of uncooked foods containing raw egg.
    • Contamination of eggs with Salmonella mainly occurs at the time of, or soon after the egg is laid.
    • Consumption of eggs that have cracks or are visually dirty (soiled) leads to an increased risk of human illness
    from Salmonella.
    • Cooking of eggs significantly reduces the risk to human health from Salmonella.

  18. Son was taken off Student Allowance at the end of last year due to an admin glitch. He was working full time, earning lots of dosh, so didn’t have the time to sort it out.

    Now he’s re enrolled, so he thought he’d better sort it out before Uni began.

    Problem number one: the Centrelink site refused to recognise him. Tried ringing Student payments line, 90 minute wait.

    Problem number two: nearest Centrelink office is an hour’s drive away, only open business hours.

    So he hops in the car after working a full day (starting 6 am, ending at 3), drives to Centrelink, gets there at 4, waits for 20 minutes (fair enough). Centrelink officer says it’s all sorted, can’t fill out claim here as they’re about to close, finish it off at home.

    …and we’re back to Problem Number One.

    (In the ‘to be fair’ column – McGowan’s office seems to have sorted themselves out, actually knew what I was talking about and knew what to do. Hopefully will be sorted by end of the day).

    I tried to re-register him with mygov and – at the end of the process – got told the service was unavailable, try again later.

    The government is digging itself a big hole with this sort of stuff. Once upon a time, dicking people around only inconvenienced the unemployed and pensioners, whom governments of all stamps seemed to assume had endless time to sit on the phone.

    Now, every government interaction, from Medicare to tax, goes through the mygov site. So every single Australian, no matter how high or lowly, gets the full Centrelink experience (albeit rebadged).

    Centrelink’s whinge is that they experience high demand for services at this time of the year. Well, duh. They have experienced high demand for services at this time of the year for about half a century. You’d think that they – and their relevant Ministers – would have worked out that there’s a problem by now.

  20. dtt

    [More seriously, if you cannot eat the batter from making a cake, then there is a REAL problem with our food safety. Eggs, milk, butter should be able to be eaten raw, if not we have a problem. Lightly poached or fried eggs would be health hazards, as would a glass of milk. Mayonaise might be banned, as would egg nog.]

    I take it you haven’t read any of the articles linked to this morning. BK linked to two, I linked to one.

    That’s why the issue is being discussed.

    [I think there will be two issues with packet cake mixes..]

    It is likely that cake mixes – including ones made in Australia – use eggs which are unsuitable for fresh consumption (e.g. cracked) or use whole eggs (as in, including shell). Either of those would merit a health warning.

  21. “If you can strike the right balance between fear and desperation, you can achieve anything.”

    Trever Noah, new host of ‘The Daily Show’ on ‘Comedians In Cars Getting Coffee’

    And he should know because he grew up during Apartheid in South Africa. Wise words.

    Thanks Greensborough Growler for the link to this series. 🙂

  22. From BK’s link on eggs – the problem seems to be with eggs that are washed in warm/hot water and then are more susceptible to allowing contamination to get through the cells. It seems that Oz eggs are not normally treated like this, so we only have to beware of cracked or stained eggs.

    I have eaten my own chook eggs for decades. Never wash them, never put them in the fridge, but date them so that they are never more then 1-2 weeks old. Just wipe them with wet cloth if dirty and use that one immediately.

    One extra comment: the dates on store-bought eggs are frightening. Who would want to eat an egg that’s over a month old?

  24. ESJ

    [Where on earth did you get the notion that your witty Jw? It seems like someone has cruelly led you to believe this. people really can be so unkind.]

    Not sure quite what you are referring to. My recent posts to TBA are quite direct, perhaps a little unkind, but were not intended to be especially witty.

    What do you think of TBAs boneheaded thoughts on traffic lights?

  26. If there were two TBA’s the red light situation would eventually resolve itself to the satisfaction of all concerned.

    TBA because he knew he was right all along.

    The rest of us because both TBAs knew they were right all along.

  28. I asked TBA for a link to his road law changes, as I can’t find any reference to them on line. So far he hasn’t responded.

  30. [confessions
    Posted Monday, January 11, 2016 at 8:47 am | PERMALINK
    I bought a pre mix packet cake mix the other day, something I never do. But noticed it now contains advice in the instructions not to eat the batter because it contains raw eggs. Licking the bowl and spoon as a kid was de rigueur whenever mum used to bake stuff, not that I’d do it now as an adult.    ]

    I used to do that too. With the perspective of a kid I wondered why she even bothered cooking the stuff when it tasted so delicious raw.

  31. BK@2215,

    That is a nice summary of the FSANZ findings on eggs.

    My take home message was
    [ Consumption of eggs that have cracks or are visually dirty (soiled) leads to an increased risk of human illness
    from Salmonella.     ]

    So, as long as I do not use these types of eggs, I can continue to enjoy my aoli.

  33. [With the perspective of a kid I wondered why she even bothered cooking the stuff when it tasted so delicious raw.]

    Very true! 😆

  34. We can learn valuable lessons from our food. Like the difference between having an interest and being fully committed.

    Whenever I have a bacon and egg sandwich I know the chicken has an interest. But, the pig, well it’s fully committed.

  36. Zoonster @2228

    173AB—Further defences

    (1) It is a defence to a charge for an offence against this Act if the person charged
    establishes that the conduct constituting the offence was—

    …

    (c) done in response to circumstances of emergency.

    (2) The defence under
    subsection (1)(c) applies only if the person charged reasonably
    believed that—

    (a) circumstances of emergency existed; and
    (b) committing the offence was the only reasonable way to deal with the
    emergency; and
    (c) the conduct was a reasonable response to the emergency.

  37. Premix cakes are very useful if you bake infrequently and the flour is likely to get weevil infestations before the next bake off. Premix cakes are also useful when using someone else’s kitchen and don’t feel like ratting through their cupboards to assemble the ingredients

    Agree that they are more expensive than buying flour, vanilla essence, sugar for frequent bakers

  38. BK

    There was a joke series about unsung heroes. The only one I remember is…

    [The first person who looked at a chicken and thought “I’m going to eat the next thing that comes out of that birds arse” ]

  39. [“For those that missed it Senator Jackie Lambie has said Medicare changes will happen over her dead body.”]

    The activist senator may soon get her wish.

  40. [“I asked TBA for a link to his road law changes, as I can’t find any reference to them on line. So far he hasn’t responded.”]

    What are you on about? Lizzie posted an article saying Victoria Stasi Government was upgrading all their red light cameras to red light + speed death trap cameras.

  43. 2GB (Luke Grant and listeners) was very negative this morning about X’s challenge in Warringah.

    The best word he could think of for the “Lookatmee-Lookatmee” Party was “nincompoops”. Other words used were “completely and utterly deluded”, “total halfwits” (think about that one for just a second” and “tree-hugging clowns” (don’t know where he got that from… is X a tree-hugger?).

  45. I make all my own cakes because they are bigger and more delicious than the crappy little things which come out of a packet these days. I reinforced this view over the weekend when I made a packet mix cake because I am housesitting and my friend does not have a mixmaster (!!!).
    The instructions told me to use a medium-sized cake tin. What came out at the end was puny and barely ended up coming halfway up the tin when cooked! And no, it rose perfectly. So, never again.

    Also, an added bonus of making your own cakes is that you get to lick the beaters after each stage…creaming the butter and sugar, adding the dry ingredients, adding the wet ingredients and fruit, and then finally after putting it into the cake pan you get the bowl and the mixing spoon and the spatula. 🙂

    As far as the raw eggs experience goes, well, every morning for 15 years I made my sons a Milo Egg Flip for breakfast with raw eggs, just so I could guarantee they started the day with high quality protein in their body and not cereal crap. Hand on heart, they did not get sick from the raw eggs once! And they have been licking bowls and spoons and beaters all their lives as well! No problem. 🙂

    Finally, Cool C@t Fund Update:

    ‘Brownie’ is coming over to the house tomorrow to run his expert eye over the job and may be putting it in by Friday.
    Phew! Just in time for the hot and sticky Sydney Summer weather! Thank you again a million times infinity. 🙂

  46. What has upset TBA is the introduction of the speed camera used in conjunction with the red light camera. These interfere with his right to accelerate when he sees an orange light and speed through an intersection to avoid having to stop for a red light. The further he is from the light when it goes orange the faster he has to go. He is therefore afraid that law abiding drivers will impede his perceived right of way. I’ve seen a lot of these drivers lately.

  49. DMT QLD is very clear on the traffic light law. You must stop on yellow unless it is unsafe to do so. They make the point that yellow is the start of red and not the end of green. They also confirm that cameras are set up to infringe drivers when going through a yellow light. I’m not sure what the tolerance on yellow lights and cameras is though but you would think there would be some allowed.

    What people need to realise that is you proceed through a yellow light and cause an accident then you will have broken the law and be held responsible.

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