New year’s news snippets

Some festive season preselection news, plus one minor scrap of new polling.

With another two weeks to go before the break in the festive season polling drought:

• The closest thing we’ve had to a new poll over the break has been a ReachTEL survey of Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, conducted for the Australia Institute. The automated phone poll of 743 respondents was conducted on December 17, and found support for the Liberals at 62.1% (up from 60.9% at the September 2013 election), the Greens at 16.1% (up from 15.5%) and Labor at 14.6% (down from 19.3%). The poll also found 50.9% believed Tony Abbott should retire from politics, with no time frame specified, while 35.4% preferring that he remain. When asked if his departure would make them more likely to vote Liberal, 36.7% said it would, compared with 17.5% who opted for less likely. A hike in the goods and services tax from 10% and 15% recorded 39.4% support and 46.5% opposition, whereas support for “gradually transitioning to 100 per cent renewable energy by the year 2030” was at 77.2%, with 16.7% opposed.

• James Robertson at Fairfax reports that the factional warfare engulfing the New South Wales Liberal Party is posing a threat to Craig Kelly, Liberal member for the seat of Hughes in Sydney’s outer south. Kelly would appear to have been undermined by a redistribution proposal that excises the Liverpool end of the electorate, reportedly home to two branches loyal to him and the arch-conservative tendency he represents, and adds a moderate-controlled branch at the Sutherland end of the seat. The most likely challenger is said to be Kent Johns, an influential moderate who sits on Sutherland Shire Council, followed by Liverpool mayor Ned Mannoun. Further complicating matters is a membership recruitment drive that conservatives have been conducting among the Macedonian community, which led the party’s moderate-dominated state executive to freeze membership at the Liverpool branch.

• Sarah Martin of The Australian reports on “heightened speculation” that dumped minister Jamie Briggs may be set to vacate his seat of Mayo at the election. The report says that Right faction MPs were meeting to discuss a possible successor, amid fears his ongoing presence could exacerbate the threat posed in the seat by the Nick Xenophon Team. The NXT has fortuitously preselected a disaffected former staffer to Briggs, Rebekha Sharkie.

• Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports that six candidates will seek Liberal preselection for the seat of Adelaide, held for Labor by Kate Ellis, at a ballot of 500 party members to be held on February 6. Houssam Abiad, deputy Lord Mayor of Adelaide, had been attracting the most attention, but the report says the “front-runners” are David Colovic, a partner with HWL Ebsworth Lawyers, and Beth Loveday, a dentist. The report identifies the other contenders as Shaun Osborn, a policeman, Kent Aughey, a commercial consultant, and Emma Flowerdew, a small businesswoman.

• Matthew Dixon of the Ballarat Courier reports two candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Ballarat, held for Labor by Catherine King: Nick Shady, a farmer and mental health advocate, and Sarah Wade, a lawyer. The report also says the Nationals are planning to field candidates in all Labor-held Victorian regional seats, which is to say Ballarat, Bendigo and McEwen.

UPDATE: Channel Seven in Adelaide has results of a ReachTEL poll from Jamie Briggs’ electorate of Mayo, with better results than he might have feared: a Liberal primary vote of 43.9%, compared with 53.8% at the 2013 election, with Labor on 17.2% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 15.4%. This probably includes an unallocated undecided result of around 8%, suggesting all concerned would in fact be a few points higher – with Briggs close enough to 50% to get him home, even if the NXT got ahead of Labor. A two-party Liberal-versus-Labor result shows Briggs leading 59-41, compared with 62.5-37.5 at the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,337 comments on “New year’s news snippets”

Comments Page 43 of 47
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  1. Boerwar

    [so that poor rich folk now find the military more appealing than formerly and that they are outcompeting real poor folk for the available positions.]
    Orrrr the “poor” after Afghanistan and Iraq have learnt the glossy brochures are crap . That they will be chewed up and spat out in pointless wars. The “poor rich” are yet to learn that lesson

  3. BW

    You must be really careful using the term middle class when discussing US. What they call the middle class in Australia we would term the semi-skilled working class – automotive workers etc. Not stuggling but they are not rich. Think Homer Simpson and family, or many of the other more recent sit coms showing families. The days of comfortable families with maids or big houses eg Brady Bunch or Leave it to Beaver, are over and most now feature stuggling Walmart employees.

  4. poroti

    Yep.

    The treatment of vets in the US is a national scandal.

    And after over two decades of losing Middle Eastern Wars there are huge numbers of vets.

    Cruz and Trump appear to be isolationists, except that Trump wants to flatten the Middle East.

    Rubio is a straight down the line Neo Con.

  7. Snippet on Daru on ABC News just now.

    The billions in foreign aid cuts are largely out of sight and out of mind. They have had devastating local impacts.

    These impacts have remained completely unreported by the MSM.

    One such impact is is on TB sufferers in PNG, in particular on Daru Island and nearby mainland PNG. Australia used to fund treatment and outreach.

    As I understand it, the strain of TB is quite bad from a management point of view.

    In this case there is a bit of blowback from the foreign aid cuts in that there is considerable inter-island traffic between Daru and other TSI inhabitants.

  8. Re AA @2106: Labor should include that image in ads and pamphlets for this year’s election. They should add a list of measures and broken promises to remind anyone who has forgotten.

  10. This is what Labor will be running their election campaign around.

    Unions Tasmania ‏@TasUnions · 3h3 hours ago
    Great response from cricket fans in favour of Sunday #PenaltyRates in Hobart today. #ausunions #auspol

    Embedded image permalink

    10 retweets 8 likes

     Reply

     Retweet

    10

    Like
    8

     More

  12. [“It states quite categorically (in the NSW rules at least) that going through a yellow light does NOT, repeat NOT incur a camera fine. Only crossing the line when the light is RED incurs a fine.”]

    Nobody is arguing going through a yellow light gives you a camera fine.

    What we are arguing is whether red light cameras PLUS speed cameras are going to KILL people when they break hard to stop going through the red light when Mr Semi-Trailer packed full of Beaumont Tiles up your clacker ploughs right through your fucking back-end because you didn’t want a redlight camera/speeding fine.

    Tell your daughter to check her mirrors before stopping for a yellow. Never teach her to always stop on the yellows, she will be killed.

  14. tba,

    All the evidence shows that speed kills and that speeding fines and speed cameras work both on the main road and at intersections as a deterrent to people speeding.

  16. [What we are arguing is whether red light cameras PLUS speed cameras are going to KILL people when they break hard to stop going through the red light when Mr Semi-Trailer packed full of Beaumont Tiles up your clacker ploughs right through your fucking back-end because you didn’t want a redlight camera/speeding fine.]

    Well, the law’s the law. Let the chips fall where they may.

    The Youngster was driving us home last night from his birthday dinner and, in a bushy area, a ring-tailed possum suddenly darted out in front of us.

    He braked extremely hard and missed the possum, who stopped in the middle of the road and just… blinked at us.

    The car behind was a rather large 4WD/SUV-whatever and, having to unexpectedly brake, the driver bore down on his very loud horn in anger, as if he was an Archangel sounding the End Times.
    We all gave him the loud and overt finger. Possums are for more important than SUV drivers shaken out of their suburban torpor by an emergency braking in front of them.

    The possum agreed.

  18. TBA,

    As I said accidents are down. Deaths on the roads here in Victoria were about 250 last year. I can remember twenty plus years ago that it was over a 1000 people per year.

    This is because of a lot of initiatives taken on road safety.

    You might not like it, but I’m sure you love your dollars far more than your fetish for speeding or breaking the road rules.

  19. There are not enough White voters anymore for Donald Trump to win the Presidential election in the US. It’s as simple as that demographic.

    The Democrats already know this fact and their outreach to the Latino community has been years in the making. That is why the only 2 candidates for the Repuglicans that they are worried about are Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush.

    Marco Rubio, for obvious reasons; Jeb Bush because he married a Latina woman and can speak fluent Spanish. However, it is also the case that Marco Rubio comes from the Cuban Asylum Seeker community and they are very strong believers in capitalism after the US government gave small business start-up loans to anyone who made it over the water and away from Castro. His appeal doesn’t extend too far away from Florida, as a result.

    You would think Ted Cruz would also be in with a shot and scooping up the Latino demographic but no one likes him and they think he’s just plain creepy.

    Anyway, Hillary has John Podesta as her campaign manager. Oh, and it’s rumoured she will choose Juan Castro as her Vice Presidential running mate. 🙂

  21. It’s a poor look for the ALP state/federal to be squabbling and dis-united re a GST hike.

    It just portrays a sense of not knowing what they’re about in such a crucial policy area.

  23. Going over the speed limit and breaking road rules in general is just pure laziness on the part of drivers.

    Doubling fines and penalties would be a good initiative.

  27. TBA,

    I know it is hard for you not to think in terms of anecdotes…that is what conservatives do.

    Perhaps you might consider which of these two things causes more deaths on average:

    1. People braking to avoid going through a red light.
    2. People not braking and going through a red light.

    (hint: imagine a large number of anecdotes)

  31. [2110
    Greensborough Growler

    This is what Labor will be running their election campaign around.

    Unions Tasmania ‏@TasUnions · 3h3 hours ago
    Great response from cricket fans in favour of Sunday #PenaltyRates in Hobart today. #ausunions #auspol]

    Around 4 million wage earners rely in part on extra pay for working unsocial hours. A majority of these workers are male. The LNP are playing with electoral fire on this issue and on the related issue of the limitation of the rights of unions.

    If anything, rather than curtailing the payment of penalty rates, more should be done to ensure that workers in fact receive their entitlements for the overtime and unsocial hours they already work.

    This issue is not only relevant to employees. It is relevant to employers who do meet their obligations while competing against other businesses who do not. In former times, these matters would fall within the scope of State Departments of Labour, who no longer have jurisdiction in most cases. Fair Work Australia should be given more of a budget to see that employment conditions are properly observed by all.

  33. QLD law says you must stop on an amber light when it is safe to do so. And yes you should always quickly check the rear view mirror.

    It’s basically a common sense call.

  34. briefly,

    He supports a free market on the roads. Only, he hasn’t factored in the fact that the competition will actually kill him.

  35. TBA,

    Do let me know if/when you can think your way to a response to my 2127. I am going out for a couple of hours which is hopefully enough time for you.

  36. [He supports a free market on the roads. Only, he hasn’t factored in the fact that the competition will actually kill him.]

    LOL good one GG.

  37. Jolyon Wagg

    TBA,

    [Do let me know if/when you can think your way to a response to my 2127. I am going out for a couple of hours which is hopefully enough time for you]

    you’ve caused him to suffer a headache…your comment required him to do some thinking

  38. 2134
    Greensborough Growler

    There’s more than one paradox at work here, GG. The safety of each driver depends on the co-operation, forbearance and forethought of every other driver. This is a model built not on competing but on collaborating..I don’t know if the TBA wiring can cope with this 🙂

  39. [ It’s basically a common sense call. ]

    So a complete other country to which TBA has no possibility of getting a visa then.

  40. briefly@2138

    2134
    Greensborough Growler

    There’s more than one paradox at work here, GG. The safety of each driver depends on the co-operation, forbearance and forethought of every other driver. This is a model built not on competing but on collaborating..I don’t know if the TBA wiring can cope with this

    The TBA wiring has a short circuit.

  41. [2125
    Greensborough Growler

    $28 mill for an advertising campaign on innovation is quite an innovation in itself.]

    This is an outright scandal. Labor, of course, have a genuinely well-thought-out approach to innovation. The LNP offer yet another tax-driven racket that will certainly fail.

  42. briefly,

    TBA will whinge until his hip pocket therapy tells him to stop or some other solution presents itself.

  43. 2140
    bemused

    It’s desperately scrounging round for anything that might be a stick with which to hit Labor….anything at all to distract from the mumbling weakness and incompetence of the Abbott-Turnbull shambles.

  44. [Rick Wilson added 2 new photos.
    28 mins ·
    Minister Hunt recently announced 8 new Green Army projects for O’Connor.

    I am pleased to see Greenskills and Conservation Volunteers Australia will have 3 Green Army projects working on trail maintenance in the Porongurup and Stirling Range National Park, and invasive plant control in the West Cape Howe and Torndirrup National Parks, and coastal reserves.
    The South West Catchment Council (SWCC) will host a project that includes the Blackwood Basin Group’s Waterbird habitat revegetation program.]
    https://www.facebook.com/RickWilsonMP/posts/439106142957650

    Meanwhile our GHGEs continue to rise.

  45. briefly,

    I’m sure the agency with the brief has deep and meaningful connections to the Government.

    I’m also sure the parody ads will be spectacular.

    I’m sure that Christopher Pyne will need more than his Clark Kent glasses to prove he is the Superman of innovation.

  49. 2146
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, January 10, 2016 at 9:25 pm | Permalink

    briefly:

    I hope you have been well. 🙂

    You too, I hope, confessions. I’ve seldom felt better 🙂

    I’m looking forward to a good year…so much to do. In particular, I’m looking forward to the Federal Election…to taking seats off the Liberals. We have everything to gain and nothing to lose. The wind is shifting in our favour, I reckon. Turnbull is not up to the job. The Liberals are hesitant, divided and increasingly irrelevant. We should take heart and fight to win.

  50. briefly:

    Glad you are well. And yes, hopefully soon voters will see how inadequate Turnbull is as PM. I’m optimistic as well.

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