BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Coalition

Three months on from the leadership change, the Coalition finishes the year with a crushing lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The final update of BludgerTrack for the year comes off the back of strong results for the Coalition from both Essential Research and Roy Morgan, resulting in a slight movement of 0.3% on the two-party preferred aggregate, and a seat gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Further:

• Labor’s Anna Burke has announced she will bow out at the next election, creating a vacancy in the eastern Melbourne seat of Chisholm, which she retained in 2013 with a margin of 1.6%. Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that the seat is reserved for Burke’s Right faction, but that this still leaves room for a turf war between the National Union of Workers and the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, both of whom are credited with about 35% of the seat’s branch membership. Monash councillor Stefanie Perri is likely to be the candidate of the NUW, while the SDA is intriguingly linked with a possible candidacy for Dimity Paul, who has been central to Victorian Labor’s recent internal crises as the complainant in the bullying action against her then employer, Adem Somyurek. This led to the latter’s dismissal as Victorian Small Business Minister and a split within the SDA sub-faction. The NUW’s prospects may stand to be boosted by a rapprochement with the Shorten-Conroy forces of the Right, which would bring them back under the umbrella of its “stability pact” with the Socialist Left.

• The Liberal National Party’s state executive voted 14-12 on Monday to block Ian Macfarlane’s move from the Liberal to the Nationals, raising questions about his future in the Toowoomba-based seat of Groom. Macfarlane threatened to quit politics if the move was rejected, and there is some concern in the Coalition that he may do so in the new year. Given that the state executive vote followed a 102-35 vote in favour of the move from the party’s Groom divisional council, which would dominate any preselection ballot, there appears to be the potential for a turf war in the seat between the party’s Liberal and Nationals components. I had a piece in Crikey on the subject that was run shortly before the state executive vote on Monday.

• Labor’s preselection for the seat of Robertson on the New South Wales Central Coast has been won by Anne Charlton, the chief-of-staff to Deb O’Neill, who held the seat from 2010 until her defeat in 2013, and is now a Senator. Charlton, who has gained media attention for her admission that she was addicted to heroin at the age of 16, won a local preselection vote by 98 to 72 ahead of Belinda Neal, who had a rocky ride as the seat’s member from 2007 to 2010, when she lost preselection to O’Neill. The seat was won for the Liberals at the 2013 election by Lucy Wicks, who holds it on a margin of 3.0%, which the proposed redistribution would nudge up to 3.2%.

• Also preselected by Labor in New South Wales over the weekend were Emma Husar, a disability services advocate who ran in Penrith at the state election in March, to run against Fiona Scott in Lindsay; and Fiona Philips, a tutor at the University of Wollongong and TAFE who ran in South Coast, to run against Ann Sudmalis in Gilmore.

• Crikey has a Christmas offer of a discounted annual subscription for its daily email and subscriber content, at $180 rather than the usual $219, plus a bonus $125 in books, DVDs and a 30-day Inkl premium subscription providing access to the Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian, The Atlantic and more.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,879 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Coalition”

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  1. QUESTION – Labor IS hammering the NBN, day in and day out. But do you think it will get reported in the Murdoch Press. Fairfax has also dropped the ball. It’s too hard for the darlings.

  2. Vic,

    Not sure how going before the budget would play out… it sure would look very suss… but I guess the electorate did buy Abbott’s BS last time.

    I think Turnbull might want to play on the idea that we have been changing PM’s too often, and going early doesn’t help that meme.

    Anyway, off to teach my daughter how to drive (everyone look out).

  4. lefty e

    The Adani mine will never be built because, in the event they ever actually get the shovels out, they will have to get through a blockade of 100,000 people which will include me.

  7. dtt

    [Turnbull while not part of the plot gave a quiet nod. ]

    Because nothing shouts leadership like disunity in your government.

    Seriously, if Turnbull knew of this and did nothing to stop it, he has the political nous of a flea.

    If he knew of it and was unable to stop it, he has no leadership cred whatsoever.

  8. “@brihonyspeed: FM Julie Bishop says it’s appropriate for ASIO boss to speak out, if he has a view public debate “has the potential to hamper” ASIO’s work”

  9. Flying to Sydney today to spend Christmas with family so will wish William and PBers a very Happy Christmas and New Year

    Very happy granddaughter got 91.2% in HSC almost as good as her cousin last year who got 96.5% very big 🙂

  11. [“Queenslanders dont want to the Adani coal mine – would prefer to keep their reef, thanks very much.”]

    Horse Shit.

    The poll was commissioned by an environmental group and the questions were push polling.

    If the question was “Are you for or against the Adani Coal Mine?” it would have been in the realm of acceptable poll, but instead we got bullshit questions such as “The Coal Industry harms people’s health, damages the environment, and employs fewer and fewer people”

    Well by Golly! That sounds like a STATEMENT!

    And as a regular poster to a polling blog frankly you should know better IMHO.

  12. Also interesting to note that both Leigh Sales & now Michelle Grattan have both admitted that the ALP would be treated very differently by the media if they came out with the same rubbish as Morrison in relation to the budget.

    Surely this can’t be the beginnings of some form of self-awareness by elements of the media can it?

  24. CE – Well it didn’t, and I’m afraid my sympathy for Rajoy and his right-wing neo-Francoist corrupt camarilla is precisely zero.

  28. The amazing thing about the current polls is that both parties seem to be becalmed.

    For Labor the Bogey Man of Abbott is gone but it has not helped Labor at all in the polls.

    For the LNP, they have been living on words rather than action for weeks.

    It seems “Trust Me” is what is keeping Turnbull’s numbers in the clouds.

    At some point, and perhaps the admission from the Health Minister that ‘some people will be worse off’ in the area of health, will start to cut with the electorate.

    Her final cheery comment this morning on early AM was it? was that the “market” will ensure that costs of MRI scans and the like will not go up or stay up.

    As private health funds increase their contributions rates at a steady 5% or so a year, and have done so for many years, the Minister’s faith in the “market” is not shared by me. At least, to the point that prices will somehow, magically, be responsive to Adam Smith’s “invisible hand”.

    Until such time as the nasties start to bite, I think Labor will continue to be in for disappointing times.

  34. TRICOT – I think there is a deep desire out there for some sort of continuity in government (an end to revolving door PMs). People desperately want Prince Mal to be a stayer and are anxious to believe in him. Of course, it doesn’t really enter their heads that the Liberals are the cause of the most recent instability in Australian politics.

    But, as you say, it’s hard to see how they can stay aloft forever on those sorts of fumes.
    I think the recent revelations about the debt “could” be a gamechanger. It means labor can come up with plans to soak the rich and make it hard for the libs to scream class warfare. They’ve also, of course, shown themselves to be shocking liars and phonies.
    It’s fascinating to see how the Libs are trying to keep Turnbull away from all the nasties. Surely that can’t last forever.

  36. “@ABCNews24: @ALeighMP: If you look at foreign owned companies, operating in the banking & finance sector, nearly half paid no #tax #auspol”

  37. “@ABCNews24: @ALeighMP: @TurnbullMalcolm needs to come out of hiding today & tell us why he believes #tax secrecy is a good thing #auspol”

  38. Good morning all,

    The coalition are now thinking about IR as a election issue.

    What is important is to understand what Morrison actually means by IR reform.

    It he coalition could be looking at using the final TURC report as a basis for taking Union bashing to the polls. It could mean using the findings of the Productivity Commission report due next week to take increased ” workplace flexibility ” to a election or a combo of both. Turnbull and co are no different to Abbott and I believe they will blast unions as being corrupt, try to destroy any public confidence in them and then let rip with penalty rate changes etc under the umbrella of TURC and the Productivity Commission being respected independent authorities that must be listened to.

    We shall see.

    Cheers.

  39. DOYLEY – I agree. But surely, at the next election, the big issue is going to be debt (and taxation) rather than IR reform, and Labor is starting to hold all the cards on that because they are the only major party prepared to soak the rich.

  40. mari

    The storms yesterday in Sydney were considered “unprecedented”. Code for, f@@k we are experiencing extreme weather events. What to do!!

  41. I would have thought the Libs would be on a hiding-to-nothing poking the IR wasp’s nest. Not even Turnbull has enough political capital to wage war on two fronts, IR & tax reform (possibly GST).

  42. Doyley

    Me thinks so too. The workforce is changing to a more casualised and contract based environment. Does not augur well for people who have not had the benefit of a reasonable education and gained specialised skills.

  43. Kevin @89,

    Agreed.

    It is always the hip pocket and any attack on workers pay and conditions is not looked on with any degree of affection.

    Add in the budget and the government continuing to focus on cuts and savings instead of accepting we have a revenue problem and there is plenty to work on.

    Saying that the government are in the grip of a huge case of hubris at the moment and perhaps they think that Turnbull will be untouchable so under the cover of his popularity they will try to get away with it.

    Remember, Turnbull has quite a few favours to pay back and IR reform is the holy grail for many coalition members and business leaders. Destroy the unions and do what they want.

    The Tories are that cocky atm and we saw what that level of confidence did to Howard in 2007 so we shall see. But I do believe the govern,ent will try it on.

    Cheers.

  44. The days are long gone when public perceptions of unions were driven by the shenanigans of the old BLF, by beer and postal strikes at Christmas and by frequent petrol, public transport and power strikes. The level of disputation is at one tenth of levels considered normal 30 years ago. The only big spike in days lost in recent years was caused by a management lockout (Qantas in 2011). Meanwhile, wage growth is moderate (some would say anemic) and the bargaining power of unions (and employees genrally) is lower than at any time since the 1930s.

    So the need for ‘reform’ is far from obvious. Industrial relations should not be an issue, even with the backing of the full Murdoch symphony. A political witchhunt Royal Commission found a few bad apples in the union movement – so bloody what. Imagine what a Royal Commission into the financial planning industry, tax avoidance, mining or the construction industry might turn up.

    Labor should push back big on this, along the lines of ‘Your Rights at Work’.

  45. DOYLEY – I agree. They’re cocky and DETACHED. Most of these Libs won’t know a real worker if they fell over him. They have absolutely no idea of what is happening outside the beltway.

  46. Rocket, 9

    [And for all those annoyed about USA politics being discussed her, I am actually more interested in this Sunday’s Spanish election! Stay tuned!]

    There’s also a Slovenian marriage equality referendum on the same day I believe.

  48. victoria @92,

    Spot on.

    The Tories see their big chance and they will go for it.

    How it ends up will be interesting but they are full of confidence arm so we shall see.

    Cheers.

  49. Ian MacFarlane was President of the Cattlemen’s union a group who so hated abbattoir workers that they started live sheep exports in 1978.

    As industry minister MacFarlane presided over the death of the car industry, the SPC food cannery was saved so Warren Truss brother navy bean farm had a market.

    Perhaps the price of Qld NLP refusing MacFarlane’s move to the Nats was the promise of an renewal of the IR battle.

    re The financial press is attributing QANTAS profit to cheaper jet fuel. A friend was complaining about the appalling service on a Qantas flight from Dubai to Melbourne. The cabin crew were so disorganised that they hadn’t locked down the trolleys in the galley as the plane landed at Tullamarine, the crew were poorly groomed and failed to distribute Immigration forms. I wonder whether the crew was on contract through a labour hire company

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