Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

Turnbull’s stellar personal ratings take a hit in the latest Newspoll, but the two-party result remains unchanged despite the government’s bumpy ride last week.

The Newspoll result in tomorrow’s Australian, which is presumably the last for the year, has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of 45% for the Coalition (down one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 12% for the Greens (up one). However, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have taken a knock, with approval down eight to 52% and disapproval up eight to 30%. Bill Shorten’s ratings plumb new depths with a three-point drop in approval to 23%, while disapproval is up four to 61%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 64-15 to 60-14.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The penultimate Essential Research fortnightly average for the year is unchanged at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Also featured are the monthly leadership ratings, which fail to back up Newspoll’s reported slide for both Malcolm Turnbull, who is at 56% approval (steady) and 23% disapproval (up three), and Bill Shorten, who is unchanged at 27% approval and 47% disapproval. Turnbull’s preferred prime minister lead is at 55-15, barely changed from 55-14 a fortnight ago. There are also questions on preferred Liberal and Labor leader, of which the former finds Turnbull on 42%, up five since the immediate wake of the leadership change, with Julie Bishop down one to 13% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%. On the latter question, Bill Shorten is down three since August to 13%, putting him one point behind both Anthony Albanese (up two points) and Tanya Plibersek (up one). The poll also finds 30% saying Tony Abbott should resign from parliament now and 19% saying he should do so at the next election, compared with 14% who say he should stay as a back-bencher and 18% who say he should return to the ministry; and 44% approving of use of the foreign aid budget to help Pacific nations tackle climate change, versus 40% disapproval.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,069 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. [Not so much a fan club but a Jim Jones convention. Honestly, the delusion is mind-blowing, and the senseless cheerleading is gobsmacking.]
    There’s only one way of protecting your mind Lorax and it’s not by trying to change people’s views.

  2. NT Chief Minister Adam Giles says no to GST increase, but calls for greater health funding http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-09/nt-chief-minister-giles-says-no-to-gst-increase/7013082 … #ntpol #auspol #aushealth
    ABC News
    [ABC News

    NT Chief Minister says no to GST increase but calls for greater health funding

    Northern Territory Chief Minister Adam Giles is not supporting a rise in the GST, but says more tax money is needed to tackle Australia’s ballooning health care costs.
    View on web]

  3. “@HillaryClinton: Muslim Americans: This is your country, too. I’m proud to be your fellow American. And many, many other Americans feel the same way. -H”

  4. [Ben Eltham
    Ben Eltham – ‏@beneltham

    Labor just mailed out a transcript of Tony Abbott’s interview with Paul Murray last night LOLOLOL
    5:49 PM – 8 Dec 2015]

  5. guytaur@850: This seems like something of a beat-up to me. Yes, the leaked talking points contradict Turnbull’s previous claim that Macfarlane accepted the decision to drop him from Cabinet.

    But, then, Macfarlane’s recent actions had already contradicted that claim, I would have thought.

  6. victoria

    SA not interested. Despite press reports. Weatherill always said if we must pursue a GST this is what I would propose.

    The media and LNP have been using that to say a Labor Premier supports the GST. Weatherill has not bothered to correct anyone because he knows it would not be reported and because when the GST dies the consequences will rebound on the LNP.

  7. It goes without saying that Abbott’s continuing behaviour is a growing problem for the Libs.

    As I have posted previously, senior Liberal party figures (apart, of course, from Loughnane-Credlin) are deeply concerned: particularly John Howard. They have tried hard to persuade Abbott to go, but he has refused to go until somebody gives him something to go to which has an attractive income stream. (I guess the sort which would put him in a position where he doesn’t have to buy second hand fridges: goodness only knows why he isn’t able to pull up stumps and live well on super of around $300k per annum).

    Unfortunately, no such job offers are on the table, because no potential employer feels they particularly need Abbott to do anything for them.

    So he is going to continue to hang around as an embarrassment to the Libs. Unless and until they force try to his hand: I feel that this might happen in earnest soon (some of the stuff leaked to Hartcher was obviously a shot across the bows).

    I think Abbott should be a complete embarrassment to everyone involved in politics in Canberra: The Libs for ever choosing him as their leader (remembering that he wouldn’t have won in the first place if one pro-Turnbull MP hadn’t been languishing in hospital). Labor for allowing him to become PM by making such a mess of everything: especially when Rudd was allowed to undermine Gillard in 2012-13. And the Canberra press gallery for not treating Abbott as the bad joke that every insider knows him to be.

    As an Australian, I can only derive comfort from the fact that, embarrassing though Abbott might be, he is perhaps not quite as embarrassing as Donald Trump or Jeremy Corbyn. But it’s scant consolation.

  8. meher baba

    Abbott was such an embarrassment, he was dear leader of party for six years.

    Me thinks you are still underestimating Abbott. Whilst I have been saying myself that Abbott has been waiting for an offer too good to refuse, do you really think that is all that consumes him? Turnbull has found himself between a rock and a hard place this past few weeks, and it aint cos of anything Labor did. It has all come from within his own party. I predict there will be more pain for Turnbull given the benefit of time.

  9. meher baba

    I also repeat my comments in days gone by. Even Abbott had the good sense not to promote brough into the ministry. Abbott knows where the bodies are buried, and if Turnbull was not so enamoured with himself, he should have too

  10. From the ‘leaked talking points’:

    [“Difficult decisions had to be made given depth of talent in party room”.]

    Yup, a lot of them hit rock bottom long ago.

  11. he is perhaps not quite as embarrassing as Donald Trump or Jeremy Corbyn

    Why is challenging neoliberal ideas that have made our societies less successful something to be embarrassed about?

    Why is refusing to support violent interventions in the Middle East that are proven failures something to be embarrassed about?

  12. Victoria, the Brough issue aside, I think Turnbull has do OK so far and I accept that is a very small minority view here.

    Regarding the Brough issue the mistake was appointing him in the first place. That was always going to cause Turnbull pain. I can only guess that was a price Turnbull had to pay to replace Abbott. Personally I think the pain is a small price to pay to rid ourselves of TAPM.

  13. davidwh

    Turnbull is in trouble at present and it isnt just about Brough. The Nats and McFarlane are only getting started. There is a power struggle playing out within the coalition and Turnbull doesnt have as many friends as he thinks he does

  14. Geez… if Abbott is waiting for someone to offer him a job, he’ll have a long wait.

    He’s hit the ceiling. There’s nowhere further up to go. No more boots in the arse to a plum position upstairs for Tony.

    All Abbott can do is cause trouble. Turnbull can’t discipline him because half the combined Coalition party room would be upset… perhaps more than half, counting Nats. He can’t farm him out to some cosy sinecure because no-one would have him. He’s the zombie PM. And I thought Ruddock was dead, yet not dead! The bad penny that just won’t go away.

    The only way to get rid of Abbott is to prevent his preselection. And I’m not sure if any of the timid preselectors of Warringah would have the guts. Perhaps Malcolm can try another branch stack?

  15. The thought just occurred to me that if Turnbull – with all his Point Piper airs and turned-up polo shirt collars – is so annoying to us inner-city, corduroy-wearing, pipe-smoking, glasses-wearing, book-reading, uni-educated, cat-owning, hybrid-driving, Muslim-loving, gay-marriage-nodding, CSIRO-and-Climate-Change-supporting equivocating, morally-relativistic, ABC-listening elites, how annoying must he be to boofheads like Barnarby Joyce and the rest of the hayseed-chewing, miner-hugging, bachelors and spinsters of the looney, rural Right?

  16. [BB

    If the party attempted to block Abbott’s preselection, it would be hilarious. Last man standing comes to mind.]

    That is probably just the way Abbott would like it.

    I am reminded that they all thought Rudd was delusional, too, when people started talking about him making a comeback.

  17. BB

    Turnbull was done over by his own party last time he was leader. They are working on bringing him down again. Turnbull must think he has this mob pegged. But it didnt take long for them to throw him off course. And did Turnbull really think praising Abbott in parliament last week as a great PM was going to smooth things over?!! Really, you gotta laugh

  18. [Why is refusing to support violent interventions in the Middle East that are proven failures something to be embarrassed about?]

    Coz the hard left is ze evil or something.

  19. Turnbull got replaced in 2009 by a single vote when he was miles behind in the polls and facing a popular PM in Rudd. I doubt he will get rolled while he is the popular leader maintains a strong poll lead against an OL who doesn’t seem to be all that popular with people.

    The far right may be as crazy as cut snakes but I don’t think they are suicidal.

  20. davidwh

    a game is being played out behind the scenes within the coalition. For some who have lost their power. Either they are playing to regain or damage those who have now got it. Some cards have already been dealt and played. Meher baba says Howard is apparently worried. I can understand why. He has no control over what card will be dealt in the foreseeable future.

  21. Abbott ‘divisive’ and ‘destructive’ force

    Greens leader Richard Di Natale told Sky News Mr Abbott was an embarrassment on the world stage.’He’s an incredibly divisive, destructive force within the Australian political landscape’The sooner Tony Abbott disappears from the Australian political scene, the better for him, the better for the Australian community,’ Senator Di Natale said.

    Labor MP Ed Husic said politicians need to think carefully before making potentially divisive comments about one part of the population.’What they are saying to the public is that if you are of the Islamic faith, you are being hard-coded against Western values, which is garbage,’ Mr Husic told Sky News.

    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten labelled Mr Abbott’s comments counterproductive and called on Macolm Turnbull to ‘pull Tony Abbott into line’.’Inflammatory language undermines efforts to build social cohesion, mutual respect and has the potential to harm the efforts of national security agencies to keep Australians safe,’ Mr Shorten said in a statement.

    – See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/12/09/abbott-not-ready-to-retire-from-public-life.html#sthash.nngDklkO.dpuf

  22. [The far right may be as crazy as cut snakes but I don’t think they are suicidal.]

    Which is why they will probably wait until after the next election (unless their lack of patience gets the better of them). After all there are more of them now than there were in 2009 and their sense of entitlement to the seat of power is beyond reason.

  23. meher baba@861

    It goes without saying that Abbott’s continuing behaviour is a growing problem for the Libs.


    I think Abbott should be a complete embarrassment to everyone involved in politics in Canberra: The Libs for ever choosing him as their leader (remembering that he wouldn’t have won in the first place if one pro-Turnbull MP hadn’t been languishing in hospital). Labor for allowing him to become PM by making such a mess of everything: especially when Rudd was allowed to undermine Gillard in 2012-13. And the Canberra press gallery for not treating Abbott as the bad joke that every insider knows him to be.

    As an Australian, I can only derive comfort from the fact that, embarrassing though Abbott might be, he is perhaps not quite as embarrassing as Donald Trump or Jeremy Corbyn. But it’s scant consolation.

    I am still astounded that Abbott was ever pre-selected by the Libs and elected by the voters in his electorate.

    Lumping Trump and Corbyn together is just crazy.

  24. Agree old comrade. I’ll never understand how Abbott managed both those wins.

    The first was because he was perceived as being led by Rudd on climate action. Which is largely true. The second can only be because a majority thought at the time the alternative was perceived a worse choice.

  25. On paper, Abbott could not be further from Rudd.
    Yes, the two were both booted out by their parties in their first term as prime minister. But one was a foreign affairs buff and self-declared wonk for the Labor team. The other is a bike riding, board surfing leader of the Liberals.
    And yet Abbot is displaying so many Rudd-like attributes it is eerie.
    (He’s even off to Singapore to make a speech and meet the prime minister in a 100 per cent Ruddish move.)

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-tony-rudd-phenomenon-how-tony-abbott-is-turning-into-kevin-rudd-20151209-glj1z3.html#ixzz3tnKkVsx7
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  26. [The Lorax
    Posted Wednesday, December 9, 2015 at 1:32 pm | PERMALINK
    MTBW @ 758:

    Some on here are a fan club don’t let them get you down.

    Not so much a fan club but a Jim Jones convention. Honestly, the delusion is mind-blowing, and the senseless cheerleading is gobsmacking. Do they honestly believe that Labor (and not just Labor, Shorten Labor) has a mortgage of the truth? Is the world so black and white? Are Turnbull and the Greens always 100% wrong and Labor always 100% right? e.g. Pensions for millionaires and diesel fuel rebate are perfectly fine, but Di Natale doing a compromise deal on tax transparency makes him the devil incarnate.

    There are grey areas people. Think! For God’s sake Think!]

    Lorax

    Have you ever thought of taking your obviously superior intellect elsewhere? I’m sure you would be much happier.

    I know you would probably feel you were letting the rest of us lesser mortals down, denying us your inspired advice and guidance, but I’m sure we would struggle through somehow. We always did before you arrived.

    Sometimes you just have to think of yourself first.

  27. The other difference is that Rudd was deposed when he was still pretty popular, whereas Abbott was deposed when he was almost universally despised.
    Exceptions being many in the Canberra Press Gallery, Annabel Crabb, and sundry loonies.

  28. There may be a very easy way to get rid of Abbott. If Abbott has not renounced his British Citizenship (all we have to go on is that he says he has but will not say when), then he is very easy to get rid of. All that needs to be done is for the HoR Privileges Committee to investigate and find the lack of loss of citizenship and then the HoR can declare a vacancy in Warringah. Although this does not work if he has renounced his citizenship.

  29. Bushfire – Did you read that after the dickhead became PM he went around to see the Nats and told them he’s got more cattle than them (though, obviously no callouses on his hands). They must have wanted to throttle the bastard.

  30. Tom I think that’s a furfie besides Abbott is just the catalyst and if he is not there the far right will just use someone else. The conservatives are just a genuine part of that side of politics that has to be taken into account and managed.

  31. Putin quick to play nuke threats, again –

    [ what was most notable in today’s update by the Russian defense ministry was neither the news about the sub, or the second ship deployment, but what Putin told Shoigu during their conversation according to the Kremlin’s transcript. Which is as follows:

    Regarding the submarine strikes we must, of course, analyze everything that happens on the battlefield, how the weapons acts.

    Both the “Kalibrs” and the X-101 rockets as a whole proved to be very good. This new, modern, highly efficient, and highly precise weapon can be equipped with both a conventional warhead as well as a special, nuclear warhead.

    Naturally, in the fight against terrorism that is unnecessary, and I hope there will be no need {to use nukes against the Islamic State}].

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-08/putin-hopes-there-will-be-no-need-nuke-islamic-state

  32. davidwh @ 898,

    ‘ Tom I think that’s a furfie besides Abbott is just the catalyst and if he is not there the far right will just use someone else.’

    That’s what I find so intriguing and hard to understand. Why are the Hard Right hanging off Abbott as their saviour when his reputation as a leader has been so thoroughly trashed, by himself mainly? Why aren’t they trying to manoeuvre one of Abbott’s acolytes into position?

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