Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition

Roy Morgan maintains its impressive consistency since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, again showing the Coalition lead a few points higher than other pollsters.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan is extremely similar to the other five it has conducted since Malcolm Turnbull deposed Tony Abbott, with the Coalition leading Labor on the primary vote by 46.5% to 28.5% (both up half a point), and the Greens on 14% (down half a point on last time). There is no change on either measure of two-party preferred, with the Coalition ahead 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 55-45 on previous election preferences. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends, from a sample of 3500.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The oft-contrary Essential Research fortnightly rolling average moves a point in the direction of Labor this week, paring its unusually modest lead for the Coalition back to 51-49. However, both major parties are steady on the primary vote, at 44% for the Coalition and 35% for Labor, with the Greens up a point to 11%. Nonetheless, an occasion question inquiring about the best party to handle various issues finds the Liberal Party generally viewed more favourable relative to Labor than in October, having improved further in areas of strength (economic management, political leadership, interest rates and treatment of asylum seekers), and pared back (industrial relations) or even eliminated (education and housing affordability) its deficits in areas of weakness. Only on environment and climate change is Labor well ahead of the Liberals, although they would lose points across the board from the inclusion of the Greens as a response option.

Further questions relates to the tax system, which is presently deemed fair by 40% and unfair by 52%, and in need of complete change by 41% and only minor change by 39%. Thirty-six per cent of respondents deemed they paid about the right amount of tax, compared with 40% for “more than fair share” and 11% for less. More detailed probing of attitudes turns up the familiar refrain that wealthy people and corporations don’t pay their fair share. Sixty-seven per cent support a proposed increase in tobacco tax, compared with 24% for opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,455 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Sohar

    [ Good idea Player One, Bemused can suffer through Leigh Sales for 30 mins on our behalf. I’m sure he will give a ‘fair and balanced’ account, just like Leigh and Chris do (and Mark did). ]

    It would also double their audience figures.

  2. There are very few here who really understand the demands placed on Ministers.

    I doubt few posters here have done the Red Eye from WA into the East and then fronted up for a full day of meetings or work. Or even had their body clock on WA time and flown over late into the East and then got up at 6 am AEST which is actually 3 am WA time after getting less than 5 hours sleep because your body clock is on WA time.

    Add all that on to the demands of on A Foreign Minister with overnight calls and the media who can start calling at ungodly hours.

    I understand why they do it but it puts into perspective Billson’s “up your’s” to Turnbull – he was quite frank about he and his family had put up with too much for too long to take the kick in the guts and just suck it up.

  3. For 2 nights in a row ABC News has had stories of the NSW government resuming property on allegedly less than fair terms.

    When these stories surface I always reflect on the wisdom of the Australian electorate which in 1988 rejected by 70% a constitutional amendment which would have prevented this.

  4. I did the red eye once (economy and next to a goth who needed her music to be at high volume) and then did a day’s surgery. I would not recommend or repeat it.

    I think surgeons probably get as many or more midnight calls as a foreign minister

  5. Cranky

    [ There are very few here who really understand the demands placed on Ministers. ]

    Thank goodness we have you here to explain it to us. What was your portfolio again?

  6. OC

    [ For 2 nights in a row ABC News has had stories of the NSW government resuming property on allegedly less than fair terms. ]

    Where did they find time in their “Terrorists!!!” agenda?

  7. Lizzie,
    Kennett lived near us when premier and before. My wife reported that his wife Felicity would barge into the chemist’s and demand to be served before other people already in the shop.

  8. Sohar@1362

    Lizzie,
    Kennett lived near us when premier and before. My wife reported that his wife Felicity would barge into the chemist’s and demand to be served before other people already in the shop.

    I hope the chemist chucked her out.

  9. [88. Thus it could not, in my view, be a breach of s 70 Crimes Act for a Commonwealth officer to disclose to police the unlawful conduct of another officer merely because the first officer came by that information by virtue of or in the course of the performance of his or her official duties.]

    Of course I’d defer to Shellbell’s greater expertise, but I reckon if my silk was down to arguing that passing on info to the likes of Brough and Lewis is kinda sorta the same as passing it on to the police I’d probably bring a toothbrush to court. Just in case.

  10. P1
    You will be pleased to hear that there was extensive coverage of Brough on both the news and 7:30 report

    Nothing on the ABC about the DT’s lead story of NSW courts permitting accused terrorists to remain seated

  11. Oakeshott Country@1366

    P1
    You will be pleased to hear that there was extensive coverage of Brough on both the news and 7:30 report

    Nothing on the ABC about the DT’s lead story of NSW courts permitting accused terrorists to remain seated

    P1 and his ilk don’t deal in facts.

  12. [I did the red eye once, economy]

    Did it a few times, into work at 10 for a full day, had to complete the analysis and reports following the visit, no way could justify taking a day off just because of an overnight flight.

    Libs though live in a different world, expect servants to take such as part of the inconveniences of life. Question why they don’t do the same and get the standard howard retort of don’t be so impertinent.

    Easy to arrange scheduling so commercial flights don’t fit, libs were pros at getting booted from parliament early on a thursday so they could catch the early flite home.

    Try their tricks in the real world of business and you’d be out on your arse no time flat.

  13. Player One – Your snark was right on – I haven’t been one. My Father-in-Law was a Cabinet Minister. We are a close family. Having lived through that confirmed to me that all our politicians are significantly underpaid.

  14. OC

    [ Nothing on the ABC about the DT’s lead story of NSW courts permitting accused terrorists to remain seated ]

    Now how could they have missed that? That’s just sloppy journalism!

  15. Cranky

    [ My Father-in-Law was a Cabinet Minister. We are a close family. Having lived through that confirmed to me that all our politicians are significantly underpaid. ]

    It was having to be your father-in-law that was seriously underpaid.

  16. [“Is your prime minister still going to shirtfront my president?” Lavrov asked Bishop in his gravelly, heavily accented English at a meeting of foreign affairs ministers from 10 nations.

    The US Secretary of State, John Kerry, jumped in. Yeah, he said, “we’ve been putting money on the result and we’re backing Putin,” he announced to some levity.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-shirtfronting-vladimir-putin-the-us-put-their-money-on-putin-20151202-gldupc.html#ixzz3t9VXam00
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook]

    When the world is laughing at you and making fun of you it makes it impossible to support your boss. You can laugh off your mad uncle but not your PM. You’re trying for acceptance and credibility among world leaders and face ridicule.

    Bishop must have developed a deep seated seething dislike of Abbott, this and other stories can only come from her, and when you read a story like this you could only applaud any action she took against him.

    No-one likes being the laughing stock of any gathering, it would have cut deeply.

  17. [Liberal senator Cory Bernardi has suggested Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull should take “all events into consideration” as he considers the future of his “captain’s call” for Special Minister of State, Mal Brough.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-stands-by-mal-brough-as-cory-bernardi-says-pm-should-reconsider-his-captains-call-20151202-gldkot.html#ixzz3t9XXzVlX
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook]

    Ha, go Cory! The RWNJs might not be deeply involved in Brough’s present problems, but they sure are deeply enjoying it.

  18. I agree with GG and CC ah!!!!!

    How about this! on the travel issue we have the extrme right of the LNP, the moderate LNP, the extreme right of the ALP and the extreme left of the ALP all on the same page.

    There is hope for the world!.

  19. The ABC 7.30 and News could hardly avoid Brough’s travails much longer as the shock jocks and the Murdoch media (and commercial networks) have been making it known to the average punter.

    The ABC has aligned itself with the Turnbull wing of the party (as has Fairfax), but are now conflicted because some sections of the media have upped the ante against Truffles. The Libs are not just fighting a civil war in their own party, the media is divided along similar lines. The only common enemy the MSM-ABC has is Labor.

  20. Sohar

    Are you Canterbury or Burwood? Kennett’s kids went to my kid’s STATE primary school. He was the MC at all the fetes.

    Mind you I am a Kennett refugee ie driven out by him.

  21. Sohar@1375

    The ABC 7.30 and News could hardly avoid Brough’s travails much longer as the shock jocks and the Murdoch media (and commercial networks) have been making it known to the average punter.

    The ABC has aligned itself with the Turnbull wing of the party (as has Fairfax), but are now conflicted because some sections of the media have upped the ante against Truffles. The Libs are not just fighting a civil war in their own party, the media is divided along similar lines. The only common enemy the MSM-ABC has is Labor.

    This is just puerile nonsense.

  22. Despite his politics Bernardi has had significant life experience:
    Publican
    Construction manager for Gaddafi
    Rower for Australia
    Isolated for12 months with TB(presumably resistant or highly resistant)

    This is very different from the usual party hacks of both sides who are rewarded with Senate seats

    I am interested on his views on Medicare. Treating a case of resistant TB costs the state $100k, highly resistant $1M. He has been a big time recipient of the welfare state.

  23. Daretotread,
    I lived in Surrey Hills – Kennett was just over Canterbury Rd. When his government amalgamated the councils in the 1990s, he interfered to make sure that his part of Surrey Hills was part of posh Boroondara, and not Whitehorse as originally drawn up. Better for property prices in his street, it seems.

  24. Oakeshott Country #1378

    [Despite his politics Bernardi has had significant life experience:
    Publican]

    Wait, is Cory over 2000 years old?!

    [Publican – an ancient Roman public contractor, who erected or maintained public buildings, supplied armies overseas, or collected certain taxes, particularly those supplying fluctuating amounts of revenue to the state (e.g., tithes and customs). The system for letting contracts was well established by the 3rd century BC.]

    http://www.britannica.com/topic/publican

  25. [I doubt few posters here have done the Red Eye from WA into the East and then fronted up for a full day of meetings or work.]

    Had a perfectly planned trip with a colleague a number of years ago.

    11 am flight to Melbourne plenty of time to check in have a run (helps sync the body clock they say) shower and enjoy an important planning session over a nice dinner with a couple of beverages, just to support the local economy. Ready for two days of meetings.

    Qantas wasn’t as well prepared as we were and after our plane failed twice to leave the gate I was put on the midnight run.

    Got a little sleep on the plane an hour in the hotel and was at the meeting on time at 8 am.

    On Friday night in the taxi we joked about the plane not taking off. It didn’t. Some five hours later the replacement plane arrived in Melb from Sydney and home to Perth for us. If I’d flown economy and didn’t have access to the lounge I’d probably still be in jail.

    I’m a firm advocate of massive payrises for pollies and Ministers. I’m all for them flying on a government fleet.

    But a telethon ball really. If it had been a constituent meeting id have no problem.

    And I’ve been at these balls the pollies pop in and out as it suits them. Yes they go to a lot of them but they go for themselves it is something backbenchers do, it is something local councillors do a lot. The choosing to network / party at this event at a cost to taxpayers of $30k is ridiculous. She should have got the commercial flight even if it meant she only had an hour at the ball or even had to miss the ball entirely.

  26. What is the political equivalent of “jumping the shark”? Taking the helicopter to Geelong?

    Brough has taken the ‘copter. To anyone looking in from the outside, his position became untenable yesterday when 60 minutes released the transcript. Like Bronnie, and so many before, he will obfuscate, but he is done.

  27. Well, in case there was really any doubt that the monkey room plotters are in fact somewhat driving Turnbull’s current “difficulties”, now Bernardi is calling for Brough to get the sack and, with what must be galling irony for the Traitorous Mals Two, calls Brough a captain’s pick:

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-stands-by-mal-brough-as-cory-bernardi-says-pm-should-reconsider-his-captains-call-20151202-gldkot.html

  28. [Brough has taken the ‘copter. To anyone looking in from the outside, his position became untenable yesterday when 60 minutes released the transcript. Like Bronnie, and so many before, he will obfuscate, but he is done.]

    Taken the chopper to Geelong. Love it.

    It’s a matter of when not if Brough is stood aside. If it were otherwise he’d have someone (anyone) from the cabinet prepared to stand up and defend him. When you’re as alone as Mal is now there’s not much hope.

  29. [I doubt few posters here have done the Red Eye from WA into the East and then fronted up for a full day of meetings or work.]

    I’ve done it on 3 occasions, one of which being to present at an international conference in Melbourne.

  30. confessions
    On one occasion I flew to Japan arriving at 1800, showered at the airport, went in to Tokyo to front the Japanese government for just on one hour and then flew back on an 1830 flight.

  31. BK:

    Yikes! And I thought the time I flew to Sydney for a breakfast meeting in the Qantas Club at the airport only to fly back to Perth later that morning for an afternoon meeting was insane. Tokyo OMG!!

  32. Good to see our former PM is still active.

    Kevin Rudd: ‘Jury is out’ on Malcolm Turnbull at Paris climate talks
    [The Copenhagen climate summit in 2009 contributed to the demise of Kevin Rudd’s first prime ministership. But Rudd, back for the Paris summit of 2015, insists Copenhagen wasn’t quite the failure it was made out to be.

    He says his views on global warming haven’t changed and that unlike other, unnamed, colleagues from his time in office, his attendance in Paris proves that his interest in the issue of global warming has not wavered.

    Now Rudd insists the Copenhagen talks provided an important stepping stone to the current negotiations and will be viewed more positively by history than they are now, even though they were clearly a political failure.

    “If you read this draft Paris accord, its essential architecture is what was contained in the Copenhagen accord,” he says.

    Copenhagen, he says, “stands up well as a major policy building block to where we are now. But in terms of the political stage management of Copenhagen, everyone knows that was a spectacular disaster.”

    On Malcolm Turnbull, Rudd says his discussions in diplomatic circles indicate “the jury is out” about the new Coalition leader.

    “People are looking and hoping, but suspending judgment for a while. There is a palpable sense of relief that Abbott is no longer directing climate change policy, not just because of his position that climate change is absolute crap but also his general hostility to multilateralism. But there is also a genuine suspending of judgment about Turnbull,” he says, arguing that in the end there will be factual evidence available as to whether the Coalition’s carbon policies are working.

    He says he attended Turnbull’s address to the UN summit on Monday as “the respectful thing to do”, sitting with the prime minister of Papua New Guinea.

    “I appropriately applauded when Malcolm announced Australia would ratify the second Kyoto commitment period. Ratifying Kyoto is useful as a baseline to Australia’s commitment to multilateral action.”]

  33. confessions
    I had to front a lowish level Japanese government bureaucrat to apologise for having to recall a few hundred vehicles for a relatively minor problem.
    Laughable really!

  34. BK@1388

    confessions
    On one occasion I flew to Japan arriving at 1800, showered at the airport, went in to Tokyo to front the Japanese government for just on one hour and then flew back on an 1830 flight.

    You squeezed about 3 hours or so into half an hour?
    Arr 1800
    Shower
    Travel to Tokyo
    1 hr meeting
    Return to airport
    Board 1830 flight

  35. Tingle’s piece worth reposting

    [Making all this even more venomous and dangerous of course is that Tony Abbott and his bunch of “political climate” change deniers are escalating the mischief-making against the Prime Minister and can be relied on to try to capitalise on the government’s political discomfort over this issue just as much as Labor.]

    (We will leave aside the irony of this, given that the Tony Abbott-led opposition was supposed to be the political beneficiary of Slipper’s demise)

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/mal-brough-affair-shattering-into-myriad-dangerous-shards-for-malcolm-turnbull-20151202-gldey3?&utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn:twi-14omn0055-optim-nnn:nonpaid-27062014-social_traffic-all-organicpost-nnn-afr-o&campaign_code=nocode&promote_channel=social_twitter#ixzz3t9sXIw9c
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  36. bemused

    [ Good to see our former PM is still active. ]

    Russ still rewriting history? What a surprise!

    When does he get to the “ratfuckers” bit?

  37. BK@1398

    confessions
    Yes business class – but it was nowhere near as good as it is today. And JAL was not the most celubrious of carriers.

    If it was back in the days when smoking was allowed, you would have just about suffocated on JAL.

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