ReachTEL: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest monthly result for ReachTEL comes at the higher end of the Coalition’s formidable recent polling form.

Malcolm Turnbull’s formidable run of polling continues with the latest automated phone poll by ReachTEL for the Seven Network, which has the Coalition lead out to 55-45 – up from 53-47 at the previous poll on October 22, and 50-50 at a poll conducted the night after the leadership change on September 15. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up from 46.% to 48.8%, Labor is down from 33.0% to 31.1%, and the Greens are down from 11.3% to 11.2%.

Malcolm Turnbull leads 71.3-28.7 on ReachTEL’s all-or-nothing preferred prime minister measure, up from 68.9-31.1. A question on whether respondents felt safer from terrorism under Malcolm Turnbull or Tony Abbott breaks 74-26 to Turbull. And there are also the usual five-point scale leadership satisfaction ratings, which have Turnbull up slightly and Shorten down slightly, which you can read in greater detail here. The poll was conducted last night, from a sample of 3144.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,121 comments on “ReachTEL: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. As a (mostly) rusted-on Green, I do hope there arn’t too many Greens silly enough to preference the Coalition over Labor just because Turnbull expressed some moderate views on climate change and same sex marriage a few years ago. Its becoming painfully obvious that being Prime Minister Turnbull takes a far higher priority than any of those silly non-core issues.

    As for so-called lefties turning to Malcolm because he’s articulate and looks nice in a suit, I do wonder how many bridges and Nigerian trunk boxes they’ve purchased lately.

  5. Asha Leu @ 46,

    Two points to support your theory:

    1. Elizabeth Farrelly’s article for Fairfax media yesterday where she gushingly predicted Turnbull would serve longer than Menzies! Which, by my calculations means he is going to be governing us into his 90s!

    2. I heard a report about a conference for entrepeneurs which the government had convened in a trendy warehouse space under the Sydney Harbour Bridge to release to them, so they could start up a Start Up, natch…..drum roll!….
    government data sets!

    All present were suitably impressed and proceeded to run about in a fizzy state bordering on a tizz attack!

    Which, seriously, I think proves that Malcolm has captured the zeitgeist because he has got his finger placed on the appropriate pulse for our times.

    This may also explain why his strategy appears to be focused around capturing the ‘Hollywood Teeth’ demographic, as I like to call it (those people across Gen X & Y who have taken advantage of all that modern cosmetic medicine and dentistry have to offer and, of course, ‘Superfoods’, so that they may be their best selves). They buy this stuff, and they are buying Malcolm.

  6. Asha:

    At the moment it seems to be mostly relief Abbott is gone and therefore voters are willing to give the govt a chance.

    The polling will tighten esp when we move closer to the election.

  7. Someone should sing this song to Bill Shorten every night at bedtime:

    ‘It ain’t what you do, it’s the way that you do it,
    That’s what get results!’

    😉

  11. C@tmomma

    [Malcolm has captured the zeitgeist because he has got his finger placed on the appropriate pulse for our times]

    Great post. I think Malcolm has captured the ‘me’ generation.

  13. Asha Leu at 46

    “And the sad thing is, its looking increasingly likely that this strategy is working.”

    Sadly it seems that this methodology is working a treat at the moment.

  14. I know many on the left don’t like to admit it but this government on paper at least is streets ahead of the one Abbott lead, only time will tell if that look on paper becomes a 3d image but hopefully it does as the country deserves better than it has had in recent years.

  17. poroti,
    I didn’t know Malcolm owned a Lear Jet! 😉

    Actually, I had a boyfriend when that song came out who changed his girlfriends as often as he changed his underwear. I gave him that record as a parting gift. 😀

  18. On Malcolm’s appeal.

    “When you develop an infatuation for someone you always find a reason to believe that this is exactly the person for you. It doesn’t need to be a good reason. Taking photographs of the night sky, for example. Now, in the long run, that’s just the kind of dumb, irritating habit that would cause you to split up. But in the haze of infatuation, it’s just what you’ve been searching for all these years.”
    ― Alex Garland, The Beach

    Of course the deeper the infatuation, the greater the eventual disappointment. Malcolm and Kevin, peas in a pod.

  20. mikehilliard

    [
    It all feels so 80’s]
    A possibility that is not all bad. The Howard v Peacock cage fight helped Labor no end. Maybe Turnbull v Abbott will do the same.

  23. I do think many are reading too much into Turnbull, if anything it should give the AP some confidence that yes the people will take kindly to a more sensible leader rather than s flag waving tosser who could barely speak and was little more than a f-wit

  25. [ flag waving tosser who could barely speak and was little more than a f-wit ]
    Are you talking about the PM candidate who was endorsed by just about every newspaper editorial in the country?

  27. Not to mention being described in positive terms by ABC talking heads because he was ‘clever’ enough to cut off his opponent during an election debate by interjecting with “doesn’t this guy ever shut up”

  28. confessions@74
    Unfortunately the BeeGees are still going strong.

    Hardly. Only one Gibb brother is still alive – ironically the oldest one (Barry). Even the non-Bee Gee brother (Andy) has shuffled off this mortal coil.

  29. Quite a few Labor commentators here and elsewhere say that Turnbull hasn’t done anything yet. He did get rid of Abbott Hockey, Andrews and Abetz among others as Ministers. Thats enough for most people for 6 months.

    Plus brought in several women Ministers. Plus stopped talking like a Tonka war toy about the Middle East and terrorism.

  30. I was channel surfing and up popped Shorten on a comedy show and he was actually quite funny, that is the side of his personality which needs to be shown more.

  31. [ Quite a few Labor commentators here and elsewhere say that Turnbull hasn’t done anything yet. He did get rid of Abbott Hockey, Andrews and Abetz among others as Ministers. Thats enough for most people for 6 months.

    Plus brought in several women Ministers. Plus stopped talking like a Tonka war toy about the Middle East and terrorism ]
    Turnbull doesn’t seem very keen to talk about the people backing him. Had a golden chance in QT yesterday but chose to use the gag motion.

  32. Poroti @ 70: The Howard/Peacock fights were partly ideological, but were also sustained by the fact that the Liberals were out of power and thrashing around looking for someone to lead them out of the wilderness. Not at all like the current situation. Mr Abbott is more likely to turn out to be another John Gorton, who also didn’t realise his time had definitively passed. (Remember Gorton’s failed attempt to get elected to the Senate from the ACT in 1975?)

    Personally I don’t think Mr Abbott poses the slightest danger to Mr Turnbull. Indeed, the more Mr Abbott carries on as he is doing at the moment, the more will reasonable people feel confirmed in their view that Mr Turnbull did the right thing to move against him.

  34. c@tmomma, 34

    We could compare the Greens’ PV over the last four polls to the ALP’s:

    GRN: 13.4-11.9-11.3-11.2
    ALP: 37.5-35.9-33.0-31.1

    Both of them have been tracking downward. This isn’t because of Di Natale, this is because of Turnbull. (Ditto goes for Shorten, however PPM is something you can pin on Shorten even though it’s biased towards the PM and said PM is on a honeymoon etc). To more accurately canvas the response to Di Natale, you would have to compare Milne under Abbott to Di Natale under Abbott (same test conditions, or as close to the same we’re going to get them). The four polls directly before the leadership change were (in chronological order):

    11.3-11.2-11.5-11.9 (improving slightly for Milne)

    This is compared to the Di Natale Green era (in chronological order):

    12.1-13.1-12.9-13.4 (improving markedly for Di Natale)

    I don’t see where you can get this idea that Di Natale is electoral poison, it isn’t reliably backed up.

  35. Asha, 51

    Doubt they will – specifically on social media they took the time to canvas that the leadership change was a case of “different leader, same old Liberals” (they did this a few times recently too including with the proposal to ban environmental groups from protesting mines) and that would ruin the feelings they’re trying to foster with those campaigns.

  36. [Wakefield @ 79: And we’ve also seen the back of Mrs Bishop and Mr and Mrs Credlin.]

    on the down side we got Wyatt (Earp) Roy

  38. [Hardly. Only one Gibb brother is still alive – ironically the oldest one (Barry). Even the non-Bee Gee brother (Andy) has shuffled off this mortal coil.]

    It was a joke FFS.

  39. There are currently two diametrically opposed theries about Abbot.

    One is that he is slowly undermining Turnbull, the other is that by remaining, he reminds everyone why Turnbull appears better.

    Can they both be right?

  41. Mike hilliard: “You’d think Malcolm had done something wonderful”

    I think we’re all aware of the most wonderful thing has done. What was that Turnbull vs Abbott rating again?

  42. [ There are currently two diametrically opposed theries about Abbot.

    One is that he is slowly undermining Turnbull, the other is that by remaining, he reminds everyone why Turnbull appears better.

    Can they both be right? ]
    Guess we’ll have to wait until Laurie Oakes starts producing some more award winning stuff

  43. Diogenes@37

    You can’t really blame Bernardi for the misattribution of the quote but it’s pretty funny that he seems smitten by the thinking of a neo-Nazi paedophile.

    I’m pleased to see Bernardi get some comeuppance for this. The funny thing was that a Tasmanian Labor MP who is a socially-conservative Catholic misused the same quote in Hansard during a same-sex marriage debate four days before Bernardi did. So someone may have been circulating it.

    Anyone who thinks that is a genuine Voltaire quote is ultra-sloppy. Even Wikipedia has it prominently flagged as a misattribution.

  44. I broadly agree with Airlines @84. I’d add that Di Natale and Turnbull probably appeal to a lot of the same people. The Green vote was probably getting bolstered by “Turnbull Libs” parking their vote while Abbott was leader. Di Natale was an especially easy leader for them to move to, compared with Milne who was seen as more confrontational.

  45. @Airlines 85

    I probably should have clarified that I was referring to Greens voters being taken in by Malcolm’s charms in my post at 51, not the party itself. I’d be very shocked if the latter was considering any preference deals with the
    Coalition.

  46. Kevin, while you’re here, can you please give us you opinion on a possible Labor leadership change, and how effective such a change against Turnbull would be in regards to Labor’s position in the polls?

  49. [“So, Malcolm Turnbull put 16 Asylum seekers in a wooden boat and forced them to land to Indonesia. Classy.”]

    Yes… a wooden boat built to Australian Maritime Safety standards, just like the ones sailing in Sydney Harbour, decked the passengers in life vests and sent them back from whence they came.

    And what were the safety standards on the one they illegal arrived on.. hm?

  50. Millennial@96

    Kevin, while you’re here, can you please give us you opinion on a possible Labor leadership change, and how effective such a change against Turnbull would be in regards to Labor’s position in the polls?

    There’s no basis on which to assert anything about a Labor change other than that they would be likely to get a modest-sized (a few points) temporary bounce out of it, which would not necessarily persist til the election. Though if they did it while the Turnbull bounce was still going they might not even get that.

    As I see it, Labor screwed up by appointing Shorten in the first place. A bad choice because he was another boring union hack, with a record of complicity in leadership turmoil, and democratically rejected by the members who preferred Albanese. Any leader could win if the cards fall their way but at present it is looking like they won’t.

    However as rolling Shorten now will make Labor even more of a joke in terms of its numbers of leader-bootings, it is hard to say what option they have other than keep Shorten to the next election, hope they don’t lose too badly or perhaps by some miracle win, and then clean up the mess with a new leader for the second term.

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