The latest result from Newspoll, featured in tomorrow’s Australian, records the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady at 46%, Labor is down one to 33%, and the Greens are up one to 11%. Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings eclipse last fortnight’s personal best with a four-point increase in approval to 60% and a two-point drop in disapproval to 22%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 26% and steady at 57%, but he has fallen further behind on preferred prime minister, from 61-18 to 64-15. The poll was conducted online and by automated phone polling between Thursday to Sunday, from a sample of 1573.
A first tranche from the results from the poll published yesterday focused on Syria and terrorism. On committing ground troops to Syria, 42% were supportive and 45% opposed; on refugees, 22% took the liberal (“should take more than 12,000”) and 44% the conservative (“should take fewer than 12,000”) position, while 27% opted for neutral (“12,000 is about right”); and 52% rejected the notion that priority should be given to Christians from Syria, with 41% in support. Seventy-six per cent considered it likely or higher that Islamic State would carry out a large-scale terrorist attack in Australia, including 24% for inevitable and 23% for very likely. Sixty-five per cent felt the Muslim community “should be doing more” in condemning terrorist attacks, with only 20% opting for “currently doing enough”, and 66% felt Muslims should be doing more to integrate, compared with 21% for currently doing enough.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has both major parties down a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 44%, Labor to 35% – with the balance being washed out in rounding, as the Greens and Palmer United stay steady on 10% and 1%. The Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred is steady at 52-48. Also:
• Fully 76% of respondents believe the terrorist threat to Australia has increased over the past few years, with only 2% opting for decreased. Thirty-two per cent support increased Australian military involvement in Syria and Iraq compared with 19% for decreased and 28% for make no change, but 45% believe doing so will make Australia less safe from terrorism, compared with 17% for more safe. Eleven per cent ascribe the motivation for the attacks to “reaction to role of western countries in the Middle East” and 29% go for “hatred of western culture and freedoms”, while 46% opt for “both”.
• An occasional question on climate change has 56% ascribing it to human activity and 32% favouring a ”normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”, which is respectively unchnagd and up one point on July. Respondents generally considered that Australia was taking more action to address climate change than China, compared with somewhat less for the United States and a lot less for European countries.
Diogenes@834
Popularity has nothing to do with whether something is sensible or not.
I have been wearing a bicycle helmet since before they were compulsory, and before they were commonly worn. I used to get chiacking from hoons going past.
Then I was cycling along one day, a kid riding on the footpath turned hard left onto the road directly in front of me, and we T-boned.
I went up and over in an arc over the handlebars, not a thing I could do, landing directly on my head.
I would have had concussion at the very least, and my helmet was a write off, but I was fine.
Dio, I am convinced you are taking the Mickey tonight.
[50.Nobody is arguing that nothing should be done about smoking. Merely that a sub-set of smokers need flexibility and extra support, rather than deeper poverty.]
It goes without saying that this support is separate to the excise or tax, both Labor and Liberal provide it to varying degrees, Labor usually better.
So exactly why have people being moaning tobacco company talking points all day?
don
[They might, but they don’t, as you know perfectly well. Are you just stirring the possum?]
Firstly I was merely correcting the use of the term logical.
One the second matter, there is quite a bit of evidence both ways. Smokers don’t have as much more spent on the health throughout their lifetime as you’d think compared with non-smokers but they definitely live shorter lives.
Turnbull on 730 tomorrow says Leigh Sales.
mexican
I am unaware of the WHO recommending an increase in the GST. They are recommending an increase in tobacco excise.
The ALP’s objection to the GST rise is that it will impact adversely on ALL lower income people. A rise in tobacco excise will impact on a small percentage of low income people. For some of these, the impact will be positive in both financial and health terms, because they will either give up or not start smoking; for a very small minority, the impact will be solely negative.
The aim, however, is wholly positive – to persuade smokers to quit.
I’m not sure that an increase in the GST benefits any of these people at all.
meher baba@823
You are OK as far as you go, but make no suggestion re accommodation.
All this libertarian stuff is fine, but the reality is that if people are too sick to know they are sick, they need to be supervised to some extent.
New detail on Australian espionage in East Timor
Why one ASIS operative below the whistle:
[The Dili bugging operation began 18 months after the Bali bombing terrorist attacks ….ASIS was at the time focused on preventing further terrorist attacks in the region… ASIS operatives were angered when instead they were given directions to spy on impoverished East Timor.]
How Australia made it worse in 2012:
[In a diplomatic bungling of the highest order, after the scandal came to light in 2012, the Gillard government sent a representative to Dili to deal with the fallout but former East Timorese president Xanana Gusmao has told Lateline that person had been directly involved in the operation, causing further offence to East Timor.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-25/east-timor-greater-sunrise-spy-scandal/6969830
Chris Bowen made the proposal today and he didn’t say anything about extra support and flexibility for socially disadvantaged smokers.
Being the fiscally ignorant person that he is, he thinks the federal government gets its own currency from taxpayers. Therefore he thinks that if the government spends more on supporting low-income people, this would force the government to either raise taxes or cut spending in other areas or borrow money in order to pay for it. Foolish man. But not alone in his foolishness.
[9.Chris Bowen made the proposal today and he didn’t say anything about extra support and flexibility for socially disadvantaged smokers.
Being the fiscally ignorant person that he is
]
Say no more where you are coming from is crystal clear!
Like Carbon Emissions, smoking rates are naturally decreasing and don’t need Great Big Taxes to reach the same outcomes.
WWP
It is high time that someone puts forward an increase to basic welfare payments, particularly DSP which is pathetically low.
Today’s Mumble with a soothing balm for all those freaked out and wringing their hands about the PPM results since MT became PM.
[The prime minister’s huge leads in satisfaction and better prime minister are, in one sense, neither here nor there when it comes to the 2016 election. It’s votes that determine election outcomes.
From time to time commentators assert that a popular prime minister will see the voting intentions gap widen during the campaign, but if anything the opposite is the case.
Election campaigns are equalisers; they place the all-conquering incumbent on the same platform as that carping, pathetic opposition leader. Opposition leaders usually impress during campaign debates, for example. The wimpier the opposition leader, the more potential for elevation in stature.
And Shorten is quite the wimp, with plenty of room for growth.]
…
[The interplay of voting intentions and personal ratings going into next year’s campaign will be worth watching.
If I were part of Team Turnbull I would, for a given set of voting intentions, prefer to enter the election campaign with lower personal ratings than those registered today. The lower the better, in fact (for a given set of voting intentions).
If, for example, the campaign began with a replica of this week’s Newspoll, and Shorten subsequently enjoyed an improvement like Howard’s 28 years ago, of 5 or 6 per cent, it would likely translate to a Labor victory.
Sky-high better prime minister and approval ratings are not all they’re cracked up to be.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/blogs/mumble-bill-shorten-newspoll-not-the-worst-by-any-stretch/story-fnvslhoe-1227622347447
don
The evidence for the efficacy of bike helmets isn’t nearly as good as most people believe.
“So exactly why have people being moaning tobacco company talking points all day?”
Straight out of the Murdoch press and too stupid/uninformed/uninterested to be bothered. Which is what got us rAbbott. And may get him for us all again ……
muttleymcgee
I don’t see anyone here arguing anything of the kind, maybe elsewhere they are.
[13.WWP
It is high time that someone puts forward an increase to basic welfare payments, particularly DSP which is pathetically low.
]
That isn’t going to work in an election without a credible strategy to pay for it.
Them!
not Us!
WWP
It can be paid for by giving the money aimed at increasing community sector workers pay to those on DSP instead
[“Straight out of the Murdoch press and too stupid/uninformed/uninterested to be bothered. Which is what got us rAbbott. And may get him for us all again ……”]
The biggest group of smokers in the country are Aborigines and Poor People, so these are exactly the same people Bills $40 a packet Ciggies will hit most.
Source: http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/content/tobacco-kff
zoom @856 Bollocks. The GST spending by the Statest on a large extent goes to the lower income earners who are net negative taxpayers.
[
Diogenes
Posted Wednesday, November 25, 2015 at 7:56 pm | Permalink
don
They might, but they don’t, as you know perfectly well. Are you just stirring the possum?
Firstly I was merely correcting the use of the term logical.
One the second matter, there is quite a bit of evidence both ways. Smokers don’t have as much more spent on the health throughout their lifetime as you’d think compared with non-smokers but they definitely live shorter lives.
]
Now your a clever follow; I am sure you can see:
x/smaller_Year = cost_per_year
is bigger than
x/larger_years = cost_per_year
Anti smoking advert:
Exiting a hospital and showing all the patients in their electric wheelchairs and oxygen bottles puffing on their smokes.
It is a pitiful sight
I should add that its up to the government or opposition to justify how they pay for a policy
Lefty e @858 so just to get this straight – it wasn’t Abbott screwing the pooch on this one.
Nicholas@859
Yes, most of us are unaware of your magic pudding.
[20.WWP
It can be paid for by giving the money aimed at increasing community sector workers pay to those on DSP instead
]
That doesn’t seem a sound strategy. If ever I’m on DSP I want excellently paid very good staff in the sector not clowns and unskilled volunteers!
WWP
I don’t disagree but how can one policy be easy to sell and the other isn’t
Perhaps Bowen will announce a New “Ciggie Allowance” on future centrelink payments like they did with the Carbon Tax money shuffle
Nicholas @859 appears to come from the Chavez school of monetary economics.
mexicanbeemer@873
I’ll let you in on the secret.
Budget allocations.
[Christine Kellett
Christine Kellett – Verified account @ChrisEKellett
Shorten’s plan to embarrass Turnbull on the world stage, and why Labor won’t replace him via @farrm51 #auspol http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/bill-shortens-plan-to-embarrass-malcolm-turnbull-on-world-stage/news-story/76f169f8b10cc8ec43113172abfbfd08 …]
Bemused
And that is what I was indicating
mexicanbeemer@882
Sorry, I must have mis-translated.
It wouldn’t support the Climate Change Meme lighting fires in SA today would it?
Gary@833
He did, but at the time Newspoll only polled better PM scores during election campaigns. Howard got as low as 22 in Newspoll and 18 in Morgan.
Quoting Peter Brent on William Bowe’s blog is like quoting a phrenologist in a neuroscience journal. The guy’s a quack. Quote Kevin Bonham or Antony Green.
victoria:
What do you make of the Palmer revelations today in parliament? Seems Brough has some questions to answer.
Theodore understands how a currency-issuing government spends money. Ask him.
It was most enjoyable watching Turnbull eviscerate Palmer in QT.
Fess
Palmer made these revelations before last election, obviously he was not yet a MP. He made them again this time in Parliament
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/mal-brough-denies-asking-clive-palmer-to-fund-peter-slipper-harassment-case-20130822-2scqf.html
[Like Carbon Emissions, smoking rates are naturally decreasing and don’t need Great Big Taxes to reach the same outcomes.]
Yes, naturally decreasing and totally uninfluenced by banning advertising, restricting the age at which they can be purchased, keeping them from being displayed, plain packaging, graphic health warnings, restricting their use from numerous public venues and repeatedly increasing their price. Dickhead.
victoria:
Wow I don’t remember that at all!
Re the Mumble piece while there is plenty of good material in there there are also a few flies in the ointment in my view:
* Firstly while lopsided races between popular PMs and unpopular LOs have got closer as election day approaches, I’m not convinced that’s driven by popularity. It could just be a tendency of the 2PP to get closer anyway.
* Secondly even the final Newspoll underestimated the Coalition by a few points in both 1987 and 1990. It may have had a house effect at the time.
* Thirdly the Coalition generally is better at recovering from bad polling than Labor.
* Fourth, Hawke called the 1987 election early to capitalise on Coalition disunity (which was the cause of the bad polls). It is just another example of how you can’t bounce an election – a factor that has caused polls to swing will often wash back by polling day.
The idea Labor could go into a campaign with polling like this week’s then pick up six points and win is one I find extremely unlikely.
It’s Time:
LOL!
CC
And Palmer bit Turnbull right back on the arse with Brough. palmer has more where that came from. Turnbull has not learnt from past mistakes
[The idea Labor could go into a campaign with polling like this week’s then pick up six points and win is one I find extremely unlikely.]
Me too.
Fess
When I heard Palmer’s revelations today, I was sure I had heard them before. Did a google search and found old reports on same
Good evening all,
For those posters harping on about labor having no interest in helping people quit smoking and are simply using the excise increase simply as a budget fix clearly have not been listening to either Catherine King or Chris Bowen.
Both have said, more than once I should stress, that labor will be making further announcements re policy to support those people trying to quit.
Yes, as labor had clearly stated it is a budget fix in part but it is also designed as one part of a policy suite to support people in giving up and more announcements will be made.
By all means just leave things as they are and let people (in particular the homeless and the poor many here are concerned with ) smoke themselves to death. Everyone needs a hobby.
Cheers and a good evening to you all.
Twitter reports of ReachTEL in the field.
Yep. What I have been saying
[Paul Bongiorno
Paul Bongiorno – Verified account @PaulBongiorno
Backbench Liberals are appalled by the developments engulfing Mal Brough.Bad judgement all round. The PM included.
2:11 AM – 25 Nov 2015
26 RETWEETS14 LIKES]