Galaxy: 58-42 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new Queensland-only poll of federal voting finds a nine-point reversal since Malcolm Turnbull deposed Tony Abbott.

Today’s Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy poll on federal voting intention in Queensland, which finds a dramatic reversal since the last such poll, which was conducted on Tony Abbott’s watch in late August. The Coalition is up nine on the primary vote to 50%, with Labor down eight to 29%. A 51-49 lead to Labor on two-party preferred has transformed into a 58-42 to the Coalition. The poll also finds 61% believe Malcolm Turnbull has the “best plan for Queensland”, compared with 14% for Bill Shorten. The poll was conducted by phone on Tuesday and Wednesday, from a sample of 800 respondents. It will presumably be followed shortly by a result on state voting intention from the same sample.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

934 comments on “Galaxy: 58-42 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. Zoomster

    [nothing anyone here says about Shorten, good or bad or indifferent, will make the slightest difference as to whether he stays or goes.]

    Surely he logs in every night and reads it all.

  2. […and nothing anyone here says about Shorten, good or bad or indifferent, will make the slightest difference as to whether he stays or goes.]

    But it makes people feel like they’re actually ‘Doing Something’ so I tend to just think ‘whatever’.

  3. Labor wasted its first 2 years in opposition, no policy development and no clean out of parliamentary logs. Sadly its very late in the day to catch up with 24 months of policy indolence. What where they doing all this time? Twittering?

  5. “Policy development” hardly dripped off the lips of anyone in the time of the Abbott Summer.

    Now that Abbott is gone, suddenly, Labor, supposedly should be hitting the airways with a raft of new policies.

    I don’t think this is the issue at the moment.

    The huge sigh of relief from most when Abbott bit the dust is still resonating…understandably.

    This place is nowhere near the fun it was when the Abbott pinata was swinging in the breeze.

  6. The Liberals wasted 6 years in opposition and 2 years in govt with no policy development (other than that which it tried to foist upon the public once it got elected), and no clean out of numpty has been riff raff – see PvO’s tweets relaying Kevin Andrews’ comments on the previous page.

    What were they doing for the last 8 years, cheap stunts in retail outlets across the country?

  8. [WeWantPaul

    The widespread use of torture at Camp Bucca would have sure made for a lot of people becoming highly motivated radicals .]

    Whatever the plan they had, and however they carried it out someone should tell them it isn’t working for them.

  9. ESJ

    Of course back at the Parliament the coalition have been busy implementing their legislative agenda such as …………. Come to think of it it is hard to think of any legislative proposals they have put forward in the past two years that have been passed by the Parliament. Even the Malsiah has produced no legislative triumph in the two months he has been in office. To busy putting things on the table rather than mapping out a policy.

  10. [Labor wasted its first 2 years in opposition, no policy development]

    Just because you are too stupid to see it doesn’t mean it never happened. It’s the trademark of RWNJs that they are literally oblivious, to the point of wilful blindness, of any fact that could disrupt their closed worldview.

  11. FalconWA

    [Of course back at the Parliament the coalition have been busy implementing their legislative agenda such as ……]

    If I recall correctly it was reported late in Abbott’s time there was a cabinet meeting with nothing in the agenda.

    There were days in the parliament when there was virtually nothing to debate.

    And this was from a PM who claimed he had hundreds of policies in the drawer just waiting to be released and legislated for.

    Must have lost the key to the drawer while surfing or bike riding

  12. The Liberals had a lot of policies but they kept most of them secret before the 2013 election because they knew they were electoral poison. They chose instead to bang on about boats, engage in silly stunts wearing hard hats ir high viz vests and lie. They let the cat out of the bag in the 2014 Budget.

  15. The same media which bangs on about the ALP having no policies accepted with a straight face the claim that the Liberals had no industry policy because Mirabella didn’t get elected.

    From memory, Macfarlane was still being pitied for this several months after the election.

  16. alias @ 838,
    I didn’t mean the polls after the resurrection of Rudd, why hone in on that time? I meant during his initial term as Prime Minister. I’m sure you could find quotes from many a Coalition MP scoffing at the sky-high polls for Kevin Rudd then, that’s all I meant.

    Secondly, you talk about people being ‘utterly fed up with Rudd-Gillard-Abbott politics’. Might I just say that is being disingenuous, to say the least, as I have to say that there is one area that the Coalition excels in over Labor and that is in the politics of tearing down their opponents, in government or Opposition.

    Sure, they lost their mojo and drifted for a while there after Labor were elected so resoundingly in 2007 and Howard was defeated in his own seat, but it didn’t last. Before long they were back to cooking up plots to bring Labor low and engaging in the sort of brazen shenanigans in parliament, such as bringing in cardboard cutouts of Rudd onto the floor of the Lower House, which, if Labor did it would produce censorious uproar in the media and hence in the electorate.

    So, to try and encapsulate that era, brought to it’s zenith by Tony Abbott, as as much the fault of Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd as Abbott, is, simply, a lie. They, Rudd & Gillard, were simply the patsies for the Liberals’, now what’s that New Age Bizspeak word Malcolm so loves to use? Ah, yes, ‘Disruption’

    Sure, it’s politics and they are all big boys and girls, but so are we here too and I just couldn’t let that one go through to the keeper unchallenged.

    Now, to your final assertion:

    ‘ Anti-Shorten sentiment. Shorten is distrusted deeply by many, and very strongly associated with Rudd-Gillard-Rudd.’

    Another attempted misdirection away from the facts.
    #1: The HIP Inquiry was set up by Abbott to get Rudd. Also to besmirch the achievements of the Rudd government more generally due to the outrageously successful way they dealt with the GFC fallout in Australia. No mention ever of the Wild West Health & Safety practices of the Cowboy Businessmen drawn like moths to the flame of money being offered to put insulation into the rooves of Australians, which every court case found was the causative factor in the deaths associated with it. Nope. Nope. Nope. All we heard was every cocky in the Coalition Pet Shop reciting parrot-fashion, “Pink Batts!!!”

    Not to mention, “School Halls!!!” ferchrissake!, when there are more mistakes and cost overruns made in the average construction of a home than there were during that program implementation.

    #2: Explain to me why it’s OK for Turnbull to knife Brendan Nelson in the back; for Abbott to knife Turnbull in the back; and for Turnbull to turn around and knife Abbott back in the back but Bill Shorten is the worst of the worst because he is ‘very strongly associated with Rudd-Gillard-Rudd’ !?!

    #3: All that before I even start on the travesty of justice that is The Trade Union Royal Commission! Yet another in a long line of taxpayer-funded ‘Get Labor’ schemes cooked up by the very grubby Dirt Unit of the Coalition government.

    No wonder Bill Shorten is viewed with suspicion by the electorate after that $80 Million smear job! Don’t forget he has been exonerated of any wrong-doing. As has Julia Gillard, the other main target of that Abbott-gestated TURCey.

    So, please, ‘Alias’, enough with the pathetic attempts to parrot those tired old, shopworn Coalition lines. We may be Bludgers here, but we are not mushrooms.

  18. [ Labor wasted its first 2 years in opposition, no policy develop ]

    That’s a remarkably poor trolling effort ESJ. I mean, you are a definitive low bar but even you cant be that stupid,

  19. @zoomster 848

    […and nothing anyone here says about Shorten, good or bad or indifferent, will make the slightest difference as to whether he stays or goes.]

    Come on, now, zoomster, surely you must realise that the Federal Labor caucus bases every decision they make on the content of the latest Poll Bludger thread. Sources inform me that if there are seventeen more Shorten-must-go rants, he will have no choice but to resign. Opposition backbenchers are becoming particularly concerned about all the references to lemmings.

    And here I was thinking you were a Labor insider!

  21. TURC saw 30 REFERRED to the DPP or Police for investigation. DPP Queensland actually failed miserably by charging one Union official with much fanfare. A lot less fanfare when they found there was no evidence and they withdrew the charges.
    The decision was about “get unions” and/or get a former Canberra rugby league player.
    I hope he takes them to the cleaners for the damage to reputation and stress they caused. Heydons and Stoljar should also be in the dock

  23. shea mcduff,
    Thanks. 🙂 And, yes, it is avowedly antediluvian is the old Poll Bludger blog, with no emoticons. Endearingly so.

  24. [Labor wasted its first 2 years in opposition, no policy develop]

    Since 1996, neither major party can hold its head up high on developing policy in opposition. The body politic was burned by the rejection of John Hewsons Fightback package in 1993. Anxious not to repeat that error – John Howard went to the 1996 election with the ‘small target’ strategy and won – and it has been the playbook ever since. The target getting smaller and smaller and the negative campaigning getting bigger and bigger as time has gone on. I agree that Tony Abbott went to the 2013 election as a policy free zone – and would have been caught out big time except that the public were tired out by the Labor shenanigans.

  25. [Opposition backbenchers are becoming particularly concerned about all the references to lemmings.]

    Well at least the repeated lemmings references are resonating with someone.

  26. The Drum – have some moron wanting to cut penalty rates and minimum wage.

    My view – The lazy incompetent businesses campaigned hard and endlessly, and still pressuring governments, to be open longer, and on weekends. Because they thought they could increase profits. Now that business plan is not producing the profits the plan is now is the have the workers pay for their crap decision making and p*ss poor business plan.

  28. [Anxious not to repeat that error – John Howard went to the 1996 election with the ‘small target’ strategy and won – and it has been the playbook ever since. ]

    Mark Latham’s reading to kids policy persisted in Labor policy through its years in opposition, manifesting itself in Labor govt policy as the Australian Early Development Index, rolled out into every school in the country. And to this day is enshrined in coalition federal govt policy as the Australian Early Development Census, still (touch wood) captured every 2 years or so in every school across the country.

  29. [Now that business plan is not producing the profits the plan is now is the have the workers pay for their crap decision making and p*ss poor business plan.]

    I am not sure if any analysis has been done but I would not be surprised if Australia is the most ‘overshopped’ country in the world. Vast numbers of shops selling the same things for too few customers. And that has nothing to do with the rise of internet shopping.

  30. William, if you are around, is it possible to ask the Crikey programmers if it is possible to reinstate emoticons? It doesn’t seem too big an ask. Lots of places have them.

    Sometimes I think that they are just there to wreck the place. I have to wonder why, when it used to work, something they did caused it to fall over.

    (insert frustration emoticon here)

  31. [Since 1996, neither major party can hold its head up high on developing policy in opposition. The body politic was burned by the rejection of John Hewsons Fightback package in 1993. Anxious not to repeat that error – John Howard went to the 1996 election with the ‘small target’ strategy and won – and it has been the playbook ever since. The target getting smaller and smaller and the negative campaigning getting bigger and bigger as time has gone on. I agree that Tony Abbott went to the 2013 election as a policy free zone – and would have been caught out big time except that the public were tired out by the Labor shenanigans.]
    The voice of reason. Agree 100%

  32. [So, please, ‘Alias’, enough with the pathetic attempts to parrot those tired old, shopworn Coalition lines. We may be Bludgers here, but we are not mushrooms.]

    Surely, you are not including Alias in that claim?

  33. It could be argued that the three year term is just too short for serious policy development by oppositions and implementation by governments. It would be good to see a serious policy discussion in this country on having four year terms – eight year senate terms are always the big turn off.

  35. AussieAchmed

    It is indeed a cunning plan . Apparently that despite people having no more or even less money they will rush out and spend more more more because the shops are open longer.

  37. I’m sanguine about 4 year federal parliamentary terms, but I don’t see this as the panacea to achieving effective govt policy. Just look at the WA govt where we had a 5+ year first Barnett term in which little was achieved apart from slaying low hanging fruit.

  38. bbp

    [ Vast numbers of shops selling the same things for too few customers..]

    Go to China. At Harbin station, there were over twenty shops, all selling identical items at identical prices. Not many customers, either.

  39. I haven’t been politically/union active for awhile, the attack by the moron right to support their Party puppet masters in cutting the wages of workers due to the stupidity of the corporations will see that change

  44. TPOF @ 882,

    ‘ Surely, you are not including Alias in that claim?’

    I see you discovered the hole in the Time/Logic Continuum of my post! 🙂

  45. C@tmomma@866

    An interesting and thoughtful response however I think you’re missing some of the big picture.

    1. I think Rudd 2 is the most analagous scenario to Turnbull’s recent ascension. Both Rudd 2 and Turnbull followed deeply unpopular PMs (it’s not remotely relevant to get into the rights and wrongs of why Gillard was so unpopular with the electorate). Both are quite charismatic in their own way, at least in the eyes of a fair portion of the electorate. Both are very much centrists; both articulate.

    (In terms of the collapse in approval for Rudd 1, that was very significantly affected by Copenhagen and by Rudd being convinced by various parties including Gillard to ditch the ETS.)

    2. Re the perception of Shorten as forever tainted by Rudd-Gillard-Rudd, what you say about the lack of a factual basis for that, and about Turnbull’s own back-stabbling history may very well be true, but in the all-important realm of perceptions, it really doesn’t matter.

    Voters, with ever shorter attention spans, have made up their mind about Shorten, just as they made up their minds about Gillard, Abbott and ultimately the rebooted Rudd before him. It’s just too late for Shorten. I happen to believe that in addition to this reality, that he’s just basically hopeless – can’t speak well publicly; lacks the gravitas of a leader; lacks much except a deep-seated conviction that Bill was born to be PM.

    3. Agreed entirely on TURC. It probably won’t matter that much now anyway. I doubt Turnbull will make much play of its finding given the history and the strong link to Abbott.

    On “shopworn Coalition lines”, it’s not true. I sincerely agree with Nicholas’ earlier post that it is in Labor’s best interests to switch leaders now. I doubt they’ll win at the next election in any case, unless the economy really tanks or something, but I think Tanya Plibersek would put Labor in a far better position after the 2016 poll than Shorten ever could.

    Leave Shorten as leader, and you’re giving Turnbull the easiest ride imaginable. Shorten is now to Turnbull what Abbott was to Shorten before the coup: a dream Opposition leader come true.

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