Galaxy: 58-42 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new Queensland-only poll of federal voting finds a nine-point reversal since Malcolm Turnbull deposed Tony Abbott.

Today’s Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy poll on federal voting intention in Queensland, which finds a dramatic reversal since the last such poll, which was conducted on Tony Abbott’s watch in late August. The Coalition is up nine on the primary vote to 50%, with Labor down eight to 29%. A 51-49 lead to Labor on two-party preferred has transformed into a 58-42 to the Coalition. The poll also finds 61% believe Malcolm Turnbull has the “best plan for Queensland”, compared with 14% for Bill Shorten. The poll was conducted by phone on Tuesday and Wednesday, from a sample of 800 respondents. It will presumably be followed shortly by a result on state voting intention from the same sample.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

934 comments on “Galaxy: 58-42 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. As much as I support removing children from detention it won’t happen. The government can’t agree to that change as it will weaken their current border protection strategy.

    My guess is the HofR will not agree to the changes and send the bill back to the Senate and if the Senate rejects it the government will simply argue that Labor and the Greens have gone soft on border protection.

  2. [They also decide on a person’s innocence if that is the verdict. There is comfort in knowing that 12 ordinary but civic minded people stand between the cold criminal system and us ordinary folks.]

    Juries are more likely to find you guilty at the end of their stint as jurors than at the start as they slowly come to realise they are being conned by defense lawyers.

  3. [Juries are more likely to find you guilty at the end of their stint as jurors than at the start as they slowly come to realise they are being conned by defense lawyers.]

    There is a study for this or is it personal experience?

  4. And to continue clearing up any confusion Marle’s email may have generated.

    Facts are facts after all.

    [A bill to remove all children from onshore immigration detention centres has passed the Senate with the support of the Greens, Labor and crossbenchers.

    Amendments put forward by Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young also call for greater media access to detention centres, with refusals to be tabled by the Immigration Minister Peter Dutton.

    The amended Migration and Maritime Powers Amendment Bill (No.1) will now return to the House of Representatives, where Senator Hanson-Young says it is up to MPs to support the proposal.

    “Malcolm Turnbull has a decision to make,” she said.

    “Will he reverse the will of the Senate and the people just so that he can keep children locked up in detention?”]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-23/bill-to-remove-children-from-detention-centres-passes-senate/6966484

    Good on Labor and crossbenchers who supported Greens amendments.

  5. [ Pegasus

    Posted Monday, November 23, 2015 at 5:03 pm | Permalink

    https://newmatilda.com/2015/11/23/comic-and-terrifying-in-equal-measure-what-we-learned-from-the-reclaim-australia-rallies/

    We checked in with the rallies, had a gander at the signs, and listened in on the speakers. Here’s what we learned about history, race, and the state of the Reclaim movement….

    ….Burqa Face Coverings Bad. Aussie Flag Face Coverings Good

    ]

    Channel 10 – Police Bill to cover Victorian rally – 1/4 Million $$$$$

  6. [Good on Labor and crossbenchers who supported Greens amendments.]

    Good on all those in Labor and the crossbenchers who didn’t get caught up in the irrelevant game of gaming the credit for ‘moving’ the jointly agree amendments …

  7. [ Pegasus

    Posted Monday, November 23, 2015 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    phoenix,

    It was reported there were around 100 police at the rally.
    ]

    Channel 10 – Police Bill to cover Victorian rally – 1/4 Million $$$$$ – FREE speech ?????

    …. and those silly people who took toddlers and babies in prams to what turned it into such a violent event from some participants on both sides …..

  8. [And to continue clearing up any confusion Marle’s email may have generated.

    Facts are facts after all.]

    There were two amendments.

  9. kevjohnno,

    Thanks for clearing up the confusion!

    I rarely only rely on media reports and usually go to check the primary source.

    Serves me right for multi-tasking at frenetic speed…so much to do!

    mimhoff

    Simply repeating something without providing a source just doesn’t work.

  10. So Labor’s amendments amended the Greens amendments with the former from Labor consisting of making minor changes to wording here and there.

  11. z
    [Yes, as I said, a team effort.]

    Only after I made my posts.

    You posted Marle’s email without comment, an email that gave the impression Labor’s amendments were about removing children from detention, etc….

    The fact is Labor’s amendments were essentially about making amendments in wording to the Greens amendments that were about removing children from detention.

    The media reports were correct.

  12. [Yes, as I said, a team effort.]

    For years the Greens have played politics with boats just like the coalition, for their own opportunistic reasons.

    You can therefore understand their supporters getting excited that they’ve eschewed cheap stunts or crying jags in the interests of actually achieving something meaningful than another headline.

  13. [Coalition/Greens deal on water entitlement register hypocritical, says Penny Wong

    In the senate, Penny Wong wants to know what the details of the proposed water entitlements register for foreign investors under the government’s “cosy” deal with the Greens. The bill is currently in the committee stage.

    It’s all up for public consultation, says finance minister Mathias Cormann.

    Wong makes the point that the government did not consult the states and territories on the deal. Cormann says the issue of who holds information on water entitlements is a technical issue.]

    I guess there will be more to this as debate continues.

  14. [For years the Greens have played politics with boats just like the coalition, for their own opportunistic reasons.]
    For years Labor have played politics with boats just like the coalition, for their own opportunistic reasons.

  15. [..government’s “cosy” deal with the Greens…]

    So funny. The number of “cosy deals” between Labor and the Coalition would number into the thousands at least {wink}

  16. Confessions, you are disgusting for saying that the greens argue for a no-torture approach to asylum seekers because they are tribal. They do it because nobody else does, and somebody has to. The pro-torture policy of the coalition and labor needs to be contested. It needs to be taken out of the realm of conventional wisdom and placed within a framework of political choices. You labor drones are making a political choice albeit a cowardly one. You pretend that there is no choice in the matter. You bet your naive arse this issue should be politicised. The political nature of it needs to be exposed. Your mob tries to sweep the questions of power and choices under the carpet.

  17. Nicholas,

    Confessions never baits or trolls {wink}

    I am not in the least bit “excited” as she puts it. I have just been correcting the record with facts.

  18. [They do it because nobody else does, and somebody has to. ]

    Christ. I never read your comments. Are they as hilarious as this normally?

  19. “whether Mal has got the stamina for the job?”

    Not sure about parliament, but Turnbull came across as quite pathetic in his meeting with Obama.

  20. [Chris Kenny ‏@chriskkenny 25m25 minutes ago
    As @vanOnselenP would say; Newspoll, oh my golly gosh!]

    Meh. Only a matter of time before Talcum’s poor political judgement reveals itself, and he Gretches something up.

    Cant do absolutely f-all forever Mal!

  21. Indeed, it might be time for the ALP to ask:

    “Does Malcolm have any policies?”

    Just that nice simple question.

    Sow that small seed of doubt in a complacent, post-Abbott hammock swing that has become the public state of mind.

  22. [vanOnselenP
    @vanOnselenP

    Kevin Andrews says the defence white paper was all but complete when he was dumped. “Pretty much all that was left to do was to bind it, put a glossy cover on it and write a foreword to it.” Given he was responsible for the drafting of Work Choices and the botched handling of Haneef in the Howard government, and the poorly received first round of welfare cuts in the Abbott government as social services minister, do you think just maybe the new defence minister thought it might be worth giving Kevin’s hard work a once over before signing off on it! Yeah, maybe…]

    I’m not sure Andrews’ sniping from the sidelines is winning him any friends or kudos. It just looks like sour grapes from someone who was a pretty ordinary minister at best.

  23. I’d love to track down some quotes by Coalition MPs from when Kevin Rudd was flying as high in the polls as Malcolm Turnbull is now.

  24. peg

    as I said, Marles’ report was the first reference to the issue that I saw. I didn’t even know if there had been any media coverage – I read what landed in my email.

    I do appreciate the gracious nature of your response.

  25. [The small-time preacher with a PhD in Islamic studies, known as Ibrahim Awad Ibrahim Ali al Badri, had been picked up by US forces for co-founding a radical group called Jamaat Jaysh Ahl al Sunnah. He was taken to Camp Bucca, a US facility in Basra where inmates were divided on sectarian lines.
    Eleven years on and now known as Abu Bakr-al-Baghdadi, the quiet and charismatic preacher is the most wanted man in the world — self-styled Caliph of the Islamic State. While no single factor can be attributed to the group’s rise to become the deadliest and most successful recruiter of foreign fighters in history, experts agree the camp played a critical part in its genesis.
    “It’s definitely an incubator,” said Quillam Foundation researcher Rachel Bryson who specialises in Islamic State and jihadism. She said the sprawling camp functioned as a “terrorist university” that allowed up to 26,000 inmates to network and form a blueprint for what is now the Islamic State.
    “The hardened radicals would be the professors and the students the detainees,” she said. “If you look at Islamic State now, they aim to build a state … it was a place that theologians and education specialists and military specialist and military specialists and people who specialise in different fields were able to meet together and plan.”
    “They could access all these different areas of society … it facilitated that and created more of a state vision.”]

    Dear dear me.

  26. Kevin Rudd 2 never flew as high in the polls as Turnbull is now, and his big surge after reinstatement was relatively short-lived.

    This is something different altogether. There are three elements – and almost everyone here is trying to pretend the third one doesn’t exist. They are:

    1. Anti-Abbott sentiment. Relief he’s gone.

    2. Pro-Turnbull sentiment. For many in the political centre, his ascension is a long held wish come true. Crucially, they will cut him a lot of slack in terms of tax policy changes and so forth as they are utterly fed up with Rudd-Gillard-Abbott politics.

    3. Anti-Shorten sentiment. Shorten is distrusted deeply by many, and very strongly associated with Rudd-Gillard-Rudd. It now fascinates me no end the way these points are continuously glossed over by so many here.

  27. Confessions, I don’t buy for a second your claim that you don’t read my posts. You read them obsessively. You can’t help yourself. You’re a professional troll. You waive your fee all the time because of the sheer joy you derive from the pursuit, but your output is of professional standard. A troll as prolific as you needs material to work with. Hence your obsessive attention to posts by Greens.

  28. WeWantPaul

    The widespread use of torture at Camp Bucca would have sure made for a lot of people becoming highly motivated radicals .

  29. Commenting in a critical way about whether the Member for Freo will cross the floor or be a whimp, is nothing against the disgraceful and cowardly sprint from the HR chamber by Abbott, and Pyne was it?, not so very long ago.

    Labor does hypocrisy okay, but the Masters of the Universe in relation to hypocrisy must surely be the LNP and its supporters who come here.

    One minute Abbott was King Kong and then all that was left was the hair from what was supposedly the hairy chest.

  30. [834
    C@tmomma

    I’d love to track down some quotes by Coalition MPs from when Kevin Rudd was flying as high in the polls as Malcolm Turnbull is now.]

    The most memorable quote (for mine) was from Barnaby who acknowledged that Rudd was popular but declared something to the effect of “He’s popular in the polls. Yes. But, by Gee, his numbers are soft. They’re really soft.”

  31. [is nothing against the disgraceful and cowardly sprint from the HR chamber by Abbott, and Pyne was it?]

    SHY having a crying jag in the Senate was also totally OTT.

  32. One of WA’s youth award nominees:

    [Wahida Samim, 19, has also been nominated for the award for her dedication to helping asylum seekers and refugees.

    Ms Samim was born in Afghanistan and was three years old when her father left to seek a better life from their war-torn country.

    Five years later, Ms Samim and her mother were finally able to move to Australia when her father received his permanent visa and could sponsor his family.

    With life so different from home for a young Ms Samim, she took some time to adjust to Australia, its culture and language.

    “I think that is something that a lot of refugees go through … but they eventually overcome their fears to make a home in Australia,” Ms Samim said.

    “But I had this opportunity to help, it doesn’t matter that I am a girl, it doesn’t matter that I am from a different race.”]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-23/wa-youth-award-nominees-want-reconciliation-tolerance/6961938

    It reminds me of that refugee who won the surfing lesson with Abbott but I recall he refused to honour it or some such.

  33. Anti-Shorten sentiment. Shorten is distrusted deeply by many, and very strongly associated with Rudd-Gillard-Rudd. It now fascinates me no end the way these points are continuously glossed over by so many here.

    What really gets me is how political tragics can, by dint of cognitive dissonance, disregard the fact that one of the most important determinants of voters’ decision-making about the political party they will support is their view of the party leaders. You can’t pick a dud leader and spend two years saying “F you” to the electorate on the question of who the leader should be and expect the people to take kindly to your party. So many Labor posters claim that this is just too bad, and Labor needs to be prepared to write off the next election because they think, “Damn it, I think Shorten is pretty good, so the rest of the country should too. Eat your vegetables, voters, and support a Shorten-led ALP!!” The stakes are too high to be that self-indulgent. The leader needs to be an appealing public face for the party. Shorten isn’t. The leader is expendable. The party’s electoral prospects are not. Change leaders and swallow your pride, Laborites. Ideally Shorten would step down voluntarily.

  34. …and nothing anyone here says about Shorten, good or bad or indifferent, will make the slightest difference as to whether he stays or goes.

  35. [I don’t buy for a second your claim that you don’t read my posts.]

    I find it quite pleasant in assuming no-one reads my posts.

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