BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition

The weekly poll aggregate reading now has the Coalition well ahead of its position at the 2013 election, with Bill Shorten’s personal ratings continuing to sink.

This week’s big result for the Coalition from Ipsos has had a solid impact on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which shifts a further 0.9% on two-party preferred and four seats on the seat projection, including one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia. The two other pollsters to report this week were essentially stable, but both are being downweighted by the model owing to their idiosyncrasies: Morgan for having the Coalition several points higher than the rest of the pack, and Essential Research for its characteristically sedate reading of the recent Coalition surge. New leadership ratings from Ipsos push Bill Shorten’s personal rating to a new low with no sign of the downward trend abating, whereas Malcolm Turnbull now appears to have reached his equilibrium point.

Other news from around the place:

• Sharon Bird, Labor’s member for the safe seat of Cunningham in the Illawarra region, faces a preselection challenge from Misha Zelinsky, described by Nick McLaren of the ABC as “an official with the Australian Workers Union, former NSW government policy advisor and criminal defence lawyer”.

• The Liberal National Party has preselected Nic Monsour, managing director of a consultancy and brother-in-law of Campbell Newman, as its candidate for the southern Brisbane seat of Moreton, which Graham Perrett gained for Labor in 2007 and did well to retain in 2013.

• The Nationals have preselected Marty Corboy, a manager at a Wangaratta stockfeed business, as its candidate for the seat of northern Victorian seat of Indi, which independent Cathy McGowan won from Liberal member Sophie Mirabella, who will also be a candidate again.

Georgie Burgess of the Launceston Examiner reports that the Liberals’ Tasmanian Senate preselection is pitting incumbents Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry against Sally Chandler, a trade expert who was pipped at the post by Jacqui Lambie as the Liberals’ number three candidate in 2013, and Jonathon Duniam, deputy chief-of-staff to Will Hodgman.

Roy Morgan had one of its occasional polls on the biggest issues facing the country and the world. Terrorism and war came back to life late last year after a long quiet spell, though more as an international than a local issue. The economy is on a long upward trend at local level, but the terrorism and war resurgence looks to have taken the edge off it in the international result. The results are from a phone poll of 647 respondents conducted a month ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,131 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition”

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  1. dave@1047

    Credit to you for not being part of the mad reflexive ABC bashers collective on PB.


    I have no problem calling the good with the bad, either way.

    They are not ‘right’ all the time.

    Yes, you have to be balanced in your assessment of them. They are certainly not infallible and produce a mix of ordinary, excellent and shocking stuff.

  2. bemused @ 1033,

    ‘ The Patriot is a defensive weapon system to stop incoming tactical missiles, cruise missiles and aircraft.’

    Exactly my point. It is there to counteract Russia aiming such things at Europe. To defend Europe from Russian aggression.

    Suffice to say, as is his special genius, President Obama decided to counteract Russia’s other major tactical weapons, oil and gas, by enabling American production to ramp up, Saudi production to ramp up, Iraqi production to ramp up, and new pipelines to be built from other oil-producing countries in the region into Europe. So Russia can turn off it’s taps all it wants now and no one is inconvenienced much anymore. Which they haven’t done recently because now they really need that revenue.

    If only Australia had a leader like him and not the dumbcluck we have now who doesn’t even get his irony.

  3. There are those here who hate people that invest their money… there are those here who wish everyone was borderline poor and depended on a Government handout week by week to make ends meet… there are those here who hate people that own more than they do and make more money then they do.. there are those here who hate successful people and wish to cut them down a few notches back to their level… there are those here who are socialists.

  4. poroti @ 1026,

    ‘ Putin assigned the strategic bombers when it was made official that a bomb caused the plane to crash. My guess is it was more a ‘message’ to the Russian public than to the ‘West’.’

    Indeed. He needs to forestall any erosion in his public support. Otherwise he may be seen as the Wizard of Ruz. 🙂

  5. C@tmomma@1052

    bemused @ 1033,

    ‘ The Patriot is a defensive weapon system to stop incoming tactical missiles, cruise missiles and aircraft.’

    Exactly my point. It is there to counteract Russia aiming such things at Europe. To defend Europe from Russian aggression.

    Suffice to say, as is his special genius, President Obama decided to counteract Russia’s other major tactical weapons, oil and gas, by enabling American production to ramp up, Saudi production to ramp up, Iraqi production to ramp up, and new pipelines to be built from other oil-producing countries in the region into Europe. So Russia can turn off it’s taps all it wants now and no one is inconvenienced much anymore. Which they haven’t done recently because now they really need that revenue.

    If only Australia had a leader like him and not the dumbcluck we have now who doesn’t even get his irony.

    I think the Patriot offers more localised defence than you seem to think it does. Used to defend specific targets.

    It struck me as being like a more capable version of the Russian BUK.

    Remember when Saddam fired off a few SCUDS? Israel used the Patriot and IIRC they were less than 100% effective.

  6. Heres a good test to see if you are a Socialist:

    You are walking on the street, which of these 2 would you rather see:

    1. Dirt poor people making ends meet pushing a shopping cart full of old cans and bottles

    2. Rich people sitting in a posh restraunt ordering another bottle of very expensive wine.

    If you chose 1, you are a socialist at heart. You want poor people.

  7. TBA @ 1057,

    ‘ If you chose 1, you are a socialist at heart. You want poor people.’

    It’s not a simplistic either/or situation.

    As a Social Democrat I want to be able to see the indigent in our society able to afford a decent meal and a reasonably-priced bottle of wine, if they so choose. Don’t you?

  8. ESJ
    What latest outrages are happening in Sussex St?

    From what I have heard, not only is J’amie still there (pending the resolution of the AVO) but he has organised for Noreen to be replaced as head of Centre Unity by none other than Courtney Roach who now goes by the unfortunate surname of Houssos.

    When Courtney was country organiser she struck me as someone who was very good at obeying orders but not much else. If J’amie can promote her he must still have significant power. Your prediction that the assassin in the cardigan was about to leave for the airport is becoming less likely. Of course if the AVO stands this might all change rapidly.

  9. [ I think the Patriot offers more localised defence than you seem to think it does. Used to defend specific targets. ]

    Patriot is good out to 50 -70km radius.

    The SM2 derivatives they are talking about land basing in Europe (they are normally for naval air defense ) can reach out up to 160km radius depending on the model and configuration.

    Oh, and i see TBA has taken his idiot pills this morning.

  10. muttleymcgee@1058

    b 1054

    Needs publicly available defibrillators.

    Many businesses have them and I am sure they would not withhold if someone needed it, if for no other reason than the risk of legal action.

    I think the hardest part would be gathering the information to set up a database.

  11. [1. Dirt poor people making ends meet pushing a shopping cart full of old cans and bottles

    2. Rich people sitting in a posh restraunt ordering another bottle of very expensive wine.]

    I don’t really like seeing either and would much rather seeing normal people eating at a nice but affordable cafe with a high quality low price WA wine.

  12. I want to see the rich people take the bottle of wine outside and share it with the poor people. Like they’re all part of the same society and recognise each other’s common humanity.

  13. TBA: apologies, I had momentarily forgotten the requirement to hang on for an asset for a year to get the “discount”. However, that doesn’t undermine my basic point, which is that you get no extra consideration for holding onto an asset for 100 years rather than 1. Which undermines the argument that the introduction of the 50% “discount” would not have provided a huge incentive for investors in rental properties, most of whom hold onto their properties for a lot longer than a year.

  14. Yes I used to worry about Joe Public getting their hands on one in a crisis situation but apparently they are now virtually foolproof if you follow the instructions.

  15. Oakeshott Country@1068

    Yes I used to worry about Joe Public getting their hands on one in a crisis situation but apparently they are now virtually foolproof if you follow the instructions.

    That’s what I understood.

    No doubt the wonders of modern computer technology to control it.

  16. False dichotomies as a political tactic are unhealthy for democracy. Clogs up debate and turns people into partisan extremists. Let’s not.

  17. [” ASAIK NSW Police stations now have defibrillators and there are moves to equip patrol cars

    They are getting much cheaper and simpler to operate aren’t they?”]

    This is not the movies folks… people who don’t know how to use them and don’t know what they are for can kill people.

    I’m guessing our local Poll Bludger medical staff here for example probably don’t even realise a defribrilator is NOT… I repeat NOT used to start someones heart if it has stopped beating.

    Yes… the Movies lied to you.

    Defibs are used ONLY in the case of heart palpitations to get it back to a normal beat.

  18. [Defibs are used ONLY in the case of heart palpitations to get it back to a normal beat.]

    Yes but modern ones come with simple steps so that anything smarter than a potplant can operate them. So maybe you shouldn’t try.

  19. Unlike the Packer Whakers modern defibs can interpret the tracing and will not discharge unless there is an appropriate rhythm. This overcomes the natural tendency for the first aider to whack asystole.

    I am guessing TBA that you are an ex-ambo. My experience is that ambos have a disproportionate number of RWNJs – so of you are this adds further to my perception.

  20. They said she wasn’t a real Jihadi warrior, or all that dedicated a Muslim, not fanatical in behaviour at aleast. She screamed to police for help, from the apartment window.

    But she then went on to become Europe’s “first female suicide bomber”. Gee, you never can tell can you? They’re out there among us… they’re all bad guys (and gals).

    Except… now we know different.

    [Paris: Investigators sorting through body parts from a flat raided by French police on Wednesday now believe Hasna Aitboulahcen, the woman who died there, was not the one wearing a suicide belt, a source close to the investigation said.

    Headlines flashed around the world this week that Aitboulahcen had become Europe’s first woman suicide bomber, after officials said they believed she had blown herself up at the scene of the raid in a northern Paris suburb.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/world/paris-attacks-woman-who-died-in-saintdenis-raid-likely-not-wearing-suicide-belt–source-20151120-gl4g07.html#ixzz3s5p0ty2x ]

    Just goes to show you that the Ray Hadley version of history, based on reports in the Daily Telegraph, in-turn leeching off TV stand-ups from over-coiffed Nine Network talking heads, flown in to make it look like Nine has a “European bureau”, but actually who wouldn’t personally know Paris from a pissoir… isn’t always correct.

    But my, does it get the punters and pokie players, the pensioners and pisspots up in arms wanting to thump every Muslim in sight (now even “normal” Muslims, ya just can’t trust any of ’em)?

    Sure does.

  21. [Just goes to show you that the Ray Hadley version of history, based on reports in the Daily Telegraph, in-turn leeching off TV stand-ups from over-coiffed Nine Network talking heads, flown in to make it look like Nine has a “European bureau”, but actually who wouldn’t personally know Paris from a pissoir… isn’t always correct.

    But my, does it get the punters and pokie players, the pensioners and pisspots up in arms wanting to thump every Muslim in sight (now even “normal” Muslims, ya just can’t trust any of ’em)?

    Sure does.]

    But BB it is just the way we are, it is natural, therefore it must be good.

  22. [I’m guessing our local Poll Bludger medical staff here for example probably don’t even realise a defribrilator is NOT… I repeat NOT used to start someones heart if it has stopped beating.

    Yes… the Movies lied to you.

    Defibs are used ONLY in the case of heart palpitations to get it back to a normal beat.]

    I’d really stop providing medical advice and especially guessing what the PB doctors know about defibs, if I were you.

  23. CTar1

    Obama brought it up a few days ago. Labor before that. For eg

    [Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has asked for an urgent briefing on the process that allowed a 99-year lease on the Port of Darwin to be granted to a Chinese company with links to the People’s Liberation Army.

    The move comes after The Australian Financial Review reported last week that the bid for the port by the Landbridge Group appeared to have slipped through the net of the Foreign Investment Review Board.]

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/labor–wants-answers-on-darwin-port-lease-to-chinese-20151115-gkzf8u#ixzz3s5wwoJmj
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

    And also if you read today’s Saturday Paper Labor MP in NT asked questions about the decision of the CLP in NT to go ahead with it

  24. [ Will QT feature questions re Mal Brough and fhe Darwin Port lease sale? ]

    I rather think Malcolm should get a question on why, given what was already in the public domain, he appointed Brough to oversee much of the “integrity” side of parliament. Considering that he seems to have the “integrity” of a wet paper bag full of poo.

  25. CTar1

    I should add that according to the AFR report, Shorten had written to Turnbull last Friday 13th November about it and Obama brought it up with Truffles during this week

  26. [Will QT feature questions re Mal Brough and fhe Darwin Port lease sale?]

    I definitely think there’ll be questions about the Darwin port, not sure about Brough though.

  27. [WWP

    a high quality low price WA wine.

    Is that an oxymoron?]

    No most of them are in that category, there a a few pretentious expensive ones, and one or two dodgy ones, but most of them are in that category.

  28. [wwp @ 1092

    I suppose it depends on what you regard as a ‘low price’ wine, relative to quality.]

    Well I’m not a wine snob, I avoid casks (although some are ok) and I’ve rarely had a bottle over $60 that I thought worth it.

  29. TBA

    Here’s a good test to see if you are a Tory:

    You are walking on the street, which of these 3 would you most like to see:

    1. Dirt poor people making ends meet pushing a shopping cart full of old cans and bottles

    2. Rich people sitting in a posh restaurant ordering another bottle of very expensive wine.

    3. 99% of people in category 1 and 1% of people in category 2.

    If you chose 3, you are a Tory at heart. You want to see most people get screwed over so a few can live a live of conspicuous consumption.

  30. Good afternoon all,

    Don’t know if this has been noted or not.

    Courier mail this morning had a Galaxy poll of Queensland federal voting intentions.

    58-42 to the coalition with primary votes of 50% to coalition and 29% for labor.

    Surprisingly the Courier Mail did not go to overboard with the reporting.

    Anyway, there you go.

    Off back to my cave for a few more days.

    Cheers.

  31. Done on the quiet but good to know refugee advocates are on the case.

    https://newmatilda.com/2015/11/21/ongoing-release-of-refugees-poses-awkward-questions-for-asio/
    [One by one, refugees initially assessed by ASIO as a security risk are being released. Advocates and lawyers are now demanding a simple question be answered – why were they held so long? Max Chalmers reports.

    One of Australia’s most opaque and internationally criticised immigration detention policies appears to be running down, with advocates saying only a small number of people indefinitely detained on the basis of a negative ASIO assessment remain in detention, and calling on the government to compensate those who have been held and released.

    The policy has seen a small group of people, around 50 by late 2013, detained in mysterious circumstances after they were found to be refugees but handed an ‘adverse security assessment’ by Australia’s spy agency ASIO.

    Lawyers and supporters have long argued the group, mostly members of Sri Lanka’s minority Tamil community, pose no risk of harm to the community, and are pointing to the fact many have been quietly released from detention as proof that ASIO now acknowledges that is the case.]
    These individuals had been incarcerated for years by successive Labor and Coalition governments and many of them will now require ongoing psychological support.

    They deserve some sort of monetary compensation for the state-sanctioned torture they endured.

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