BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition

The weekly poll aggregate reading now has the Coalition well ahead of its position at the 2013 election, with Bill Shorten’s personal ratings continuing to sink.

This week’s big result for the Coalition from Ipsos has had a solid impact on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which shifts a further 0.9% on two-party preferred and four seats on the seat projection, including one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia. The two other pollsters to report this week were essentially stable, but both are being downweighted by the model owing to their idiosyncrasies: Morgan for having the Coalition several points higher than the rest of the pack, and Essential Research for its characteristically sedate reading of the recent Coalition surge. New leadership ratings from Ipsos push Bill Shorten’s personal rating to a new low with no sign of the downward trend abating, whereas Malcolm Turnbull now appears to have reached his equilibrium point.

Other news from around the place:

• Sharon Bird, Labor’s member for the safe seat of Cunningham in the Illawarra region, faces a preselection challenge from Misha Zelinsky, described by Nick McLaren of the ABC as “an official with the Australian Workers Union, former NSW government policy advisor and criminal defence lawyer”.

• The Liberal National Party has preselected Nic Monsour, managing director of a consultancy and brother-in-law of Campbell Newman, as its candidate for the southern Brisbane seat of Moreton, which Graham Perrett gained for Labor in 2007 and did well to retain in 2013.

• The Nationals have preselected Marty Corboy, a manager at a Wangaratta stockfeed business, as its candidate for the seat of northern Victorian seat of Indi, which independent Cathy McGowan won from Liberal member Sophie Mirabella, who will also be a candidate again.

Georgie Burgess of the Launceston Examiner reports that the Liberals’ Tasmanian Senate preselection is pitting incumbents Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry against Sally Chandler, a trade expert who was pipped at the post by Jacqui Lambie as the Liberals’ number three candidate in 2013, and Jonathon Duniam, deputy chief-of-staff to Will Hodgman.

Roy Morgan had one of its occasional polls on the biggest issues facing the country and the world. Terrorism and war came back to life late last year after a long quiet spell, though more as an international than a local issue. The economy is on a long upward trend at local level, but the terrorism and war resurgence looks to have taken the edge off it in the international result. The results are from a phone poll of 647 respondents conducted a month ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,131 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition”

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  1. [Police discovered Tasers, a bomb-making manual and other equipment during a raid on the Braybrook house of Phillip Galea, an anti-Muslim agitator.]

    There is a rice-paper thin line between people like him and the psychopaths who join Daesh. If he was a Muslim he would be out there raping Yazidi women to breed more Daesh cannon fodder.

  2. [Wwp 996 – the 50 per cent cgt discount is a disgrace. Sadly neither party seems about to ditch it.]

    I’m still hoping Shorten will put together a package including compensations but with a core of:

    GST 12.5%
    Major super reform (the broader the better)
    CGT discount gone

    There isn’t the courage there though I think.

  3. [Insiders ABC
    Insiders ABC – Verified account ‏@InsidersABC

    .@RichardDiNatale + @CliveFPalmer join @barriecassidy for an #insiders double header 9am Sunday @ABCNews24 #auspol
    Embedded image]

  4. [Coming Up – Monday, 23 November on qanda
    Yanis Varoufakis – Former finance minister of Greece
    Greg Hunt – Minister for the Environment
    Geraldine Brooks – Author and journalist
    Anthony Albanese – Shadow Infrastructure Minister
    Judith Sloan – Businesswoman, Academic and Columnist]

  5. TPOF at 1002

    That was a genuinely heroic act, I hadn’t heard about it here in Australia but that might have been just because I missed it.

    Had it happened in France, we would certainly have heard it across all our media & rightly so.

    I wonder too if the differences in people’s tendency to relate to similar circumstances but in different locations is a case of subconscious bias & not necessarily intentional.

  6. lizzie@1000

    Were the Chinese the only bidders for the Port of Darwin?

    No, but they outbid the others by a country mile. Their bid was well in excess of what was expected.

    They wanted the Port. That says a lot in itself.

    “Pig Iron” Menzies couldn’t see a problem selling Iron scrape to Japan in 1939 etc either.

    Quiz Question – How many Chinese Ports will the Australian Government or their ‘associates’ be allowed to buy ?

    If the ‘price’ for the sale of Port Darwin was so low – just over $5 Million a year for 99 years, it should have just been retained as is.

    Lordy lordy one shudders as to what they have put over robb in ChAFTA.

    Hardly a fair fight with robb ‘involved’.

  7. Mr Galea is extremely fortunate that his name is not
    Mr Ibrahim.

    So are his friends, neighbours, acquaintances, suppliers, business associates, fellow religionists, and his family – all of whom would by now be under intense scrutiny, possibly being held incommunicado sans habeas corpus, subject to police security raids, etc, etc, etc.

    Further, Mr Galea’s church leadership would now be subject to stentorean demands to condemn Mr Galea’s murderous intentions.

  8. lizzie@1011

    Thanks, Dave.
    Hypothetical: If we were at war with, say, New Zealand, would we be happy that the Port of Melbourne was owned by NZers?

    Probably. Its only Melbourne after all (says a Sydneysider – tongue in cheek)

    🙂

  9. Just in case no one has noticed the Cold War has started up again, although it is rather more that cold – warmish even comfortable shower temperature.

    Yesterday Russia set off 25 bombers on ISIL, described by someone as “Shock and Awe on steroids”. Most were launched from Russia

    Now sure Russia wants to destroy ISIL which is a real threat, to its souther borders, but it is much, much more than that. Russia has just made a statement. “Beware the bear.” The message is for Turkey, for the USA, for Poland or any other unfriendly states.

    The USA is now at a cross roads: Confront Russia risking WWIII (even MAD) or back down and look weak. What 25 bombers is saying is simply. “Do not assume that you will take no damage!”

  10. victoria

    I’m waiting for the Daily Telegraph front page SHOCK HORROR headlines and graphics. Also keenly await BB’s report on the Hadley outrageathon over the incident.

  11. In case of war the ports can be nationalised. I’m sure China is more interested in commercial competition with its trading partners and owning the whole supply chain.

  12. Jeff Sparrow on Galea, United Patriots Front….

    https://newmatilda.com/2015/11/21/members-of-the-far-right-are-threatening-political-violence-whatever-happened-to-those-anti-terror-laws/
    [Suffice to say that if the UPF were led by an angry young man called Mohammed, it’s impossible to believe he and his whole crew wouldn’t currently be in jail.

    Of course, we’ve seen a similar pattern elsewhere. In the US, for instance, radicalised white men are responsible for the vast bulk of terror attacks, yet the security forces – and the whole political culture – focus almost exclusively on the danger posed by Islamists.

    Though the UPF seems to be growing, it’s still a tiny group. But we’re living now in dangerous times, a period in which demagogues are likely to flourish, particularly as the rhetoric from the supposed mainstream becomes increasingly extreme. It’s all the more important to take the far Right seriously, particularly because the authorities won’t.]

  13. WWP@996: I’m not crazy about the current CGT arrangements either, but let’s get our terminology straight please. There was no “50% cut” in the GST rate: there was a replacement of one way of calculating the “discount” from the marginal tax rate (by cumulative CPI) with another (a flat 50%).

    The 1985 Keating way of counting the “discount” was too complicated. But the 2000 change under Howard was way too crude, effectively favouring short-term speculative gains over long-term investments. This is why all the stuff one reads about the introduction of the 50% “discount” in 2000 supposedly fuelling a surge in negatively-geared rental property investment is crap. Landlords, who tend to hold their properties for a long time, generally got a much better deal under the pre-2000 system. It’s property developers and share traders who love the post-2000 regime.

    The government shouldn’t get rid of the “discount” altogether: there needs to be some reward for people who manage their own savings rather than give them to the bank to make a fortune from. The obvious thing to do would be to have a sliding scale of discount depending on how long the asset is owned: eg, no discount in years 1-2, 10% in years 3-4, 20% in years 5-6 and so on up to 50%.

    And, to be fair, CGT should be payable at a consistent rate: say, 40 cents in the dollar, rather than on the top marginal rate, which favours people who can manipulate how much income they receive in a particular year.

  14. daretotread @ 1015,
    The American Military Arsenal dwarfs Russia’s and so it would be fairer to say, watch out if the Eagle decides to swoop!

    Plus factor in the arsenals of their allies and I dare say that the Russian Bear would be scuttling back home with his little tail between his legs.

    Russia, by all accounts, is already spending more on it’s military than the economy, under duress from sanctions and the abnormally low oil price, can bear ( 😉 ).

    Sure, the Sukhoi is superior to the JSF, which hasn’t even gotten off the ground past a few test flights yet. However, wars aren’t won in the air, particularly, and I might add that America has moved to place Patriot Missile batteries pointed towards Russia, thus enabling it to just press a button if Russia gets out of line. 🙂

    Putin may be better at posturing but Obama still holds the whip hand.

  15. [WWP@996: I’m not crazy about the current CGT arrangements either, but let’s get our terminology straight please. There was no “50% cut” in the GST rate: there was a replacement of one way of calculating the “discount” from the marginal tax rate (by cumulative CPI) with another (a flat 50%).]

    You’ve tried this before and either way of putting it honestly it is a 50% cut, it is either you cut the capital gain in half and tax half of it at the full rate or you have cut the rate in half and tax the full gain. So a 50% cut in the CGT rate.

    Yes indexation was removed and so the cut in take would be less than 50% but there was still a 50% rate cut.

  16. It is an interesting thought experiment to contemplate how the UPF would react to the sort of extra judicial subject to ministerial decision processes that “terorists” are now subject to. It is now more than ever important that the legal process is open and accountable.

  17. FWIW: my usually reliable sources claim that Turnbull’s team is currently gaming an election before the May budget. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it will happen. I’m told that the way things have traditionally worked is that the PM and other relevant important people have weekly/fortnightly meetings to consider whether or not to go. Until the decision to go is actually made at one of those meetings, even the PM isn’t certain of the exact date. That’s the only effective way to avoid leaks.

  18. Bob Brown was interviewed this morning on ABC RN’s Blueprint for Living program.

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/blueprintforliving/sense-of-place:-bob-brown-on-oura-oura/6954318
    [When Bob Brown first went to Tasmania as a young doctor he stumbled across a property called Oura Oura in Liffey south of Launceston.

    After a long career in politics, he retired from the Senate in 2012 and gifted his property to the newly formed Bush Heritage Australia. In doing so he had no idea that it would inaugurate a kind of movement. Now, a number of beautiful places have become safe havens for Australia’s wild places.

    Bob tells how the property became a ‘natural meeting place for greenies in beanies’ and that plans hatched under the walnut tree shaped his life and his careers as both an environmental activist and politician.]
    He was an authentic politician, as well as a truly inspiring, humble, generous and compassionate human being.

  19. C@tmomma

    Putin assigned the strategic bombers when it was made official that a bomb caused the plane to crash. My guess is it was more a ‘message’ to the Russian public than to the ‘West’ .

  20. C@tmomma@1021

    daretotread @ 1015,
    The American Military Arsenal dwarfs Russia’s and so it would be fairer to say, watch out if the Eagle decides to swoop!

    Plus factor in the arsenals of their allies and I dare say that the Russian Bear would be scuttling back home with his little tail between his legs.

    Russia, by all accounts, is already spending more on it’s military than the economy, under duress from sanctions and the abnormally low oil price, can bear ( ).

    Sure, the Sukhoi is superior to the JSF, which hasn’t even gotten off the ground past a few test flights yet. However, wars aren’t won in the air, particularly, and I might add that America has moved to place Patriot Missile batteries pointed towards Russia, thus enabling it to just press a button if Russia gets out of line.

    Putin may be better at posturing but Obama still holds the whip hand.

    Hmmm… well I don’t think the Russians will be too worried about those Patriot Missile batteries pointed toward them.

    [Patriot is a long-range, all-altitude, all-weather air defence system to counter tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and advanced aircraft. Patriot (MIM-104) is produced by Raytheon in Massachusetts and Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control in Florida.]

  21. Fair enough meher baba agree with your cgt comments.

    I’d say 15 gst
    Cgt sliding scale of tax based on length of ownership
    20 and 45 per cent rate of income tax
    Death duties
    Cgt on home sales with gains of 10mill or more
    25 company tax
    Guaranteed minimum income for all

    Would be fair and would equip the country for the future

  22. bemused @ 1027,
    ‘ Hmmm… well I don’t think the Russians will be too worried about those Patriot Missile batteries pointed toward them.’

    How so? As I understand it the ‘Ring of Fire’ pointed towards Russia from Eastern Europe and European NATO countries is there to counteract Russian adventurism aimed towards those countries and is also part of the subtext to the Ukrainian imbroglio whereby it was the intent of the Ukraine to join the EU and get itself a Patriot battery of missiles as well that prodded the Russian Bear to act against it before it was too late.

  23. [“Wwp 996 – the 50 per cent cgt discount is a disgrace. Sadly neither party seems about to ditch it.”]

    Disagree… it encourages long term holding of investments, please research this before agreeing with the socialists in here

  24. WWP@1022: so why not call it a replacement of a “CPI discount” with a “50% discount”? Indeed, seeing that there was no across-the-board CGT prior to 1985, and the tax has never been been applied at an unadjusted marginal rate, why call it a “discount” at all?

    It’s an ideologically-driven way of thinking, like the concept of a “tax expenditure”. The ideological assumption is that the government is “entitled” to the income and wealth of its citizens, which it then transfers as “entitlements” to people who didn’t earn or save it.

    These things are not enshrined in natural law, they are choices made by elected governments on behalf of the citizens who elected them. I’m cool with that. And I’m certainly cool with the strongest possible welfare safety net and a fair tax system which makes the better-off pay for that safety net, and a whole heap of other important things like health, education, research, public transport and roads. (I’m far, far less excited about industry subsidies and road-building, but that’s just me.)

    But I’d like to think that my requirement to pay taxes for all of these things (and I personally pay a lot of tax) derives from the collective choices made by me and my fellow citizens rather then deriving from the entitlement of an unaccountable state apparatus.

  25. C@tmomma@1029

    bemused @ 1027,
    ‘ Hmmm… well I don’t think the Russians will be too worried about those Patriot Missile batteries pointed toward them.’

    How so? As I understand it the ‘Ring of Fire’ pointed towards Russia from Eastern Europe and European NATO countries is there to counteract Russian adventurism aimed towards those countries and is also part of the subtext to the Ukrainian imbroglio whereby it was the intent of the Ukraine to join the EU and get itself a Patriot battery of missiles as well that prodded the Russian Bear to act against it before it was too late.

    The Patriot is a defensive weapon system to stop incoming tactical missiles, cruise missiles and aircraft.

    The US may have other missile systems for offensive purposes but I have not heard any mention of them. I thought there was a trade off for the Russians agreeing to remove their missiles from Cuba that the Americans removed their nuclear armed missiles from Europe and Turkey.

  26. TBA@1031: If I buy a capital good and sell it tomorrow I get a discount of 50%. If I sell it in 100 years time, my discount remains 50%. How on earth does that encourage long-term investment? What “facts” are you talking about?

  27. meher baba@1034

    TBA@1031: If I buy a capital good and sell it tomorrow I get a discount of 50%. If I sell it in 100 years time, my discount remains 50%. How on earth does that encourage long-term investment? What “facts” are you talking about?

    TBA does’t do facts. The hurt what passes as his tiny brain.

  28. meher baba@1024

    FWIW: my usually reliable sources claim that Turnbull’s team is currently gaming an election before the May budget. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it will happen. I’m told that the way things have traditionally worked is that the PM and other relevant important people have weekly/fortnightly meetings to consider whether or not to go. Until the decision to go is actually made at one of those meetings, even the PM isn’t certain of the exact date. That’s the only effective way to avoid leaks.

    So…when turnbull waffles and structures his words so as to lead people to believe he intends to go full term – he is being economical with the truth ?

    Saying one thing yet knowing full well he could well do the opposite ?

  29. [Cgt on home sales with gains of 10mill or more
    ]

    Neither side will do it but you need to incorporate the family home into retirement planning (with a bias to encourage / reward downsizing) and this presents an opportunity to bring the home into the system including into asset tests and into the CGT system.

  30. Someone posted this earlier (thanks!) and I have to commend it as a good article worth reading.
    https://newmatilda.com/2015/11/21/members-of-the-far-right-are-threatening-political-violence-whatever-happened-to-those-anti-terror-laws/

    It has a lot of links for anyone interested in following up and seeing just how mad this lot are.

    Good historical reminders too like this:
    [The most systematic campaign of terror in Australian history was conducted by the fascist Ustasha, responsible for bombings in Sydney in 1967, 1969 and 1972, Canberra in 1969, Melbourne in 1970 and 1972. Around about the same time, the National Socialist Party of Australia was linked to a series of bombings and rifle attacks on leftwing bookshops and premises in Melbourne and Sydney.]

  31. [How on earth does that encourage long-term investment?]

    Why on earth would you be encouraging long term investment, you should obviously be taxing the hell out of speculative investment, but investments should speak for them selves there is this whole magic thing (oh um the market) that is meant to isolate good and bad investments and dictate how long they are for.

  32. Ben Carson talks of ‘rabid dogs’: US refugee debate descends into ugliness

    Washington: It was an ugly and dispiriting public spectacle, drawn out over the grim days after the Paris attacks.

    All week prominent members of one of America’s two major parties indulged in a carnival of fear and hate that by Thursday night some observers were beginning to see as dangerous

    Donald Trump : “I’m putting the people on notice that are coming here from Syria as part of this mass migration,” he told an audience in New Hampshire. “If I win, they’re going back. They’re going back. I’m telling you. They’re going back.”

    Ben Carson, the former neurosurgeon who is coming second to Trump in national polls joined in on Thursday. As is so often the case, he chose a simple course into the discussion, likening Syrian refugees to dogs.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/world/ben-carson-talks-of-rabid-dogs-us-refugee-debate-descends-into-ugliness-20151120-gl4gt6.html?

  33. Re TPOF @1003: I have often thought that all fanatics are basically the same, it’s just what they are fanatical about that’s different. This depends on the times and places that formed them. Today it’s radical Islam. In other times and places it might have been extreme nationalism, doomsday cults of various kinds, radical leftist groups like the Red Brigades of the 70s, Nazism, Communism…

  34. Yesterday in Darwin Turnbull said the Port Leasing arrangements only involved the commercial side the Port Operations.

    ABC TV News lastnight showed footage of the facilities the ADF use in the Port – with a visiting foreign aircraft carrier tied up alongside – Turnbull obviously wrong, not across an important issue or worse. ABC said those facilities are part of the deal.

    Just imagine a Labor PM making such a huge mistake – we would never hear the end of it.

    Credit to the ABC for pointing it out.

    Fail for the other media.

  35. I didn’t think the Republicans could come up with a nuttier contender than Trump, but Ben Carson is doing his best to prove me wrong.

  36. dave@1043

    Yesterday in Darwin Turnbull said the Port Leasing arrangements only involved the commercial side the Port Operations.

    ABC TV News lastnight showed footage of the facilities the ADF use in the Port – with a visiting foreign aircraft carrier tied up alongside – Turnbull obviously wrong, not across an important issue or worse. ABC said those facilities are part of the deal.

    Just imagine a Labor PM making such a huge mistake – we would never hear the end of it.

    Credit to the ABC for pointing it out.

    Fail for the other media.

    Credit to you for not being part of the mad reflexive ABC bashers collective on PB.

  37. [Credit to you for not being part of the mad reflexive ABC bashers collective on PB. ]

    I have no problem calling the good with the bad, either way.

    They are not ‘right’ all the time.

  38. I made a mistake this morning.

    At the Supermarket I bought some very nice looking strawberries.

    Very nice looking strawberries.

    I saw the chocolate dipping sauce, but passed on it.

    Think I’m going to have to correct my mistake later this arvo….

    🙂

  39. [“TBA@1031: If I buy a capital good and sell it tomorrow I get a discount of 50%. If I sell it in 100 years time, my discount remains 50%. How on earth does that encourage long-term investment? What “facts” are you talking about?”]

    Err… What? I’m not too sure what you are on about.

    Capital Gains Tax has a rate of 40%

    After holding the Asset for 12 months or longer that drops to 20%

    Hence.. holding investments like shares, investment property, etc etc for longer than 12 months incurs less tax hence encouraging long term investment.

    This is especially important when it comes to things like the share market to stop people dumping their shares 1 week after buying them

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