New results from Newspoll and Essential Research have made very little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, which records only minor shifts on every measure of voting intention and no net change in the seat projection, with the Coalition up a seat in New South Wales and down one in Western Australia. Both pollsters also provided leadership ratings, which also produce very little change to the aggregates, suggesting Malcolm Turnbull’s surging popularity in his two months in the job is finally levelling off.
• Kelvin Thomson announced on Tuesday that he will be bowing out at the next election, which means an open Labor preselection for the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills. The seat was held by Bob Hawke throughout his parliamentary career from 1980 to 1992, then won at a by-election by independent Phil Cleary, whom Thomson unseated in 1996. Factional arrangements reserve the seat for the party’s Right faction, which is divided in Victoria between the Bill Shorten/Stephen Conroy axis and rival elements excluded from its “stability pact” with the Socialist Left. A potential candidate for the former is Mehmet Tillem, a former staffer to Conroy who briefly held a position in the Senate before failing to win election from number three on the Labor ticket at the 2013 election. The rival Right forces include David Feeney, member for the neighbouring seat of Batman, who appears to be interested in exerting his influence. The Age reports he made an unsuccessful approach to Helen Kapalos, a former Seven Network journalist and chair of the Victorian Multicultural Commission, and others named as possible candidates include one of his staffers, Ben Maxfield. Also “believed to be interested” are Jamila Rizvi, Mamamia editor and a former staffer to Kevin Rudd; Peter Khalil, formerly director of corporate affairs at SBS and now a colleague of Helen Kapalos on the Victorian Multicultural Commission; Moreland councillors Meghan Hopper and Lambros Tapinos; and Labor staffers Anthony Cianflone and Anna-Maria Arabia. Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter was also mentioned in a report by Annika Smethurst of the Herald-Sun. The only confirmed starter appears to be Joshua Funder, a funds manager and former Yarra councillor. The Age report said former SBS newsreader Mary Kostakidis was “being discussed”, although it didn’t say by whom, and Kostakidis herself was quoted saying she isn’t interested. Labor could potentially face a threat in the seat from the Greens, and Phil Cleary has indicated that he might run again, although his recent entries have state elections have not met with great success.
• Denice Barnes of the Central Coast Express Advocate reports that Belinda Neal will again seek preselection for her old Gosford-based seat of Robertson. Neal had a controversial tenure in the seat after gaining it for Labor in 2007, resulting in a preselection defeat at the hands of Deb O’Neill, who retained the seat in 2010, lost it to Liberal candidate Lucy Wicks in 2013, and has since taken a seat in the Senate. O’Neill’s chief-of-staff, Anne Charlton, will also contest the preselection vote, which is to be held on December 12.
• Labor’s preselection difficulties in Western Australia have been resolved by the withdrawal of two Left-backed candidates who were threatening to upset the national organisation’s applecart: Adam Woodage, a 28-year-old electrician who was threatening Gary Gray in his seat of Brand, and Pierre Yang, a Gosnells councillor who was seeking preselection in the new seat of Burt, which Bill Shorten wanted to go to Canning by-election candidate Matt Keogh. Woodage cited “family reasons” for his decision to withdraw, although it also emerged he had not been a financial member of the party without interruption for the previous 12 months, meaning he would have required a special exemption from the state party’s administrative committee in order to stand. I wrote about these matters at length in an article for Crikey on Friday.
• The Western Australian federal redistribution process has been finalised, with the commissioners making two changes of consequence to the original draft in response to public submissions. One was to reverse a plan to transfer North Fremantle from Fremantle to Curtin, which would have disturbed an arrangement that had been in place in 1980. The commission has also gone back on a plan to transfer the Shire of Wandering from O’Connor to Canning. Left undisturbed is the much-criticised transfer of Collie from Forrest to O’Connor.
• A federal redistribution process for the Northern Territory’s two electorates has also begun, but with a resolution date set for February 7, 2017, it will not be in effect by the time of the next election. Solomon currently has 67,699 enrolled voters compared with 61,872 for Lingiari, suggesting territory will be transferred from the former electorate, which accommodates Darwin, to the latter.
1,909 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition”
L G H
How about workers getting a share of the increased productivity ?
TB I’m not sure you actually get a balanced view by reading/watching extreme views from both ends of the spectrum
I’ve noticed that over the past few years right-oriented posters rarely complain about the ABC and its bias. On the other hand, it is usually always those on the left making the complaints. What does this tell us?
L G H@1849
Taxes are spent by the Govt.
Superannuation is invested.
Your argument is simplistic.
I felt the ABC or at least parts of it were harder on the Gillard government than they were on the Abbott government but when I compare it against what the FTA’s dish up, the ABC does a far better job then the FTA’S DO.
LGH you have to take account of a few other items.
– Benefits and rebates provided by the government for a large section of the community.
– Services provided by the government.
– Infrastructure provided by the government.
– GST does not apply to some key spending items including food, health, education etc.
Basically the equation is not as simple as that.
bemused @ 1854
It was meant to be simplistic. perhaps you’d like to tackle the last question?
What share is reasonable to be left in a workers hands of you think… 30%?
Yes all of the money taken goes somewhere.. taxation ( a lot of which is poorly spent / used to subsidise things not overly in the workers benefit), superannuation (which props up the value and share price of foreign investors investments in the country -> 50% of our stock market)…
The question is “What does unbised” actually mean.
The ABC is instructed to time the air time allocated to each side of politics during elections. Yet, is that a true measure of political bias.
Lincoln’s Gettyburg Address only took a minute or so to artculate. Yet, the concepts and ideas resonate even today.
Giving equal time is good for the blusterers. But, do they actually say anything in the “equal” time allocated. So it’s a fine line between effective communication and equal time.
As for bias, the over riding principle for most people is that hear too many views they disagree with and think they are being discriminated against. Or, you can be like BB who actively seeks out and listens to those views he claims are anthetical to his on @GB.
Personally, the Murdoch media are anti-Labor, Fairfax seems to be a mixture of Greens aspirations and small p progressives. The ABC seem to upset every one. So, they are probably the most balanced on that score alone.
Believe it or not, the ABC is not there to reflect the echo chamber views of PB.
A well balanced super fund shouldn’t all be invested in the ASX
I pretty much agree, I don’t mind hearing alternative views and the ABC tends to put forward views which are often missing from the FTA’s
Thanks for pointing out it its not as simple as that – perhaps I should have written a 40 page essay instead?
The point is that workers currently have very little of their money that they earn to spend discretionally. A very large is repurposed by our society with very little choice in it for the worker.
Perhaps there is a better balance between what is taken and what is left?
That is all I am saying and something that should be born in mind when thinking about increasing super contributions and GST etc.
I don’t think the current balance is equitable for these reasons:
* poor spending decisions by government
* government subsidies to companies and individuals that don’t need it
* potential for a more efficient means at ensuring retirement, e.g. super funds used to fund government infrastructure projects vs propping up share prices for foreign investors. (Note additional inequities built into the current super system).
I would propose that rather than a 15% super rate, further penalising the price of labour in a high-wage economy a more appropriate response would be a lower rate with super seen as a supplement to rather than a replacement of the pension.
L G H@1857
Tax revenue is about 25% of GDP.
Compared to other developed countries, this is toward the lower end.
What services do you want cut?
To be anti-super is not necessary to be anti-worker. Not all proud spokespeople of the left were pro super when it was introduced nor are so today.
It’s tough LGH because it really comes down to individual choice about what people want governments to provide and what they want to have discretion over.
One area that always ends up in argument is charging a toll for use of transport infrastructure. Most of us balk at paying a toll and expect governments to provide the infr5astructure free for use.
I doubt you can come up with any balance that is perceived fair by all of us.
bemused @ 1862
What services do I want cut?
Government subsidies to private education
Government funding to be exorbitant costs to university management
All government payments to SERCO
Government subsidies of diesel fuel to miners
Government subsidies of private health care
I think you can go a long way with cuts but still maintain world class funding of education, welfare and health.
I don’t get how anyone can be against super, it is traffic foresight to set a slide a certain amount that over time can accumulate interest that hopefully enables the worker to retire more comfortably than they would if they had to go onto the aged pension.
DavidWh @ 1864
Great example – toll roads
Go in with private/public partnership
Government foots the bill for cost over-runs
Half of toll fees go to pay for waste unnecessary with pure government funding (e.g. establishment of customer service, marketing, toll infrastructure, board of directors etc for private entity)
The worker absolutely loses with private/public infrastructure funding.
Case in point the NBN.
[Government subsidies to private education
Government funding to be exorbitant costs to university management
All government payments to SERCO
Government subsidies of diesel fuel to miners
Government subsidies of private health care
I think you can go a long way with cuts but still maintain world class funding of education, welfare and health.]
Yes, and you could probably add the removal of tax exemption status for religious institutions.
[I don’t get how anyone can be against super ]
On that a huge Plus One.
How sure can you be that super is safe and will accumulate interest?
Remember in a finite world infinite growth is not possible.
[Cos it’s very trendy to whinge about the ABC]
I think that it’s trendy here to whinge about those whinging about the ABC…
L G H@1865
OK with the first of those, but I need a translation of the second.
So you want govt to engage a contractor other than SERCO or hire govt employees to do what SERCO currently does. And that will save how much in taxes?
The ‘subsidies’ of diesel fuel to miners are actually for fuel used off-road because the excise on fuel is supposed to be for road funding. So if you are using the fuel for other than driving on roads, why should you pay the excise? The same logic applies to farmers.
No problem with abolishing subsidies to private health care. But then the money should be tipped into public health so no saving there.
So all in all, that would no greatly boost the take home pay of workers. And some would even be worse off.
L G H
A lot depends on the competency of the fund manager but a well run super fund should be able over twenty to thirty years accumulate a nice nest egg for someone if they have been able to maintain employment over that time.
Shares are only one investment class, term deposits are another but there are others but it comes back to the risk profile.
[Go in with private/public partnership]
Unindicted war criminal Tony Blah is an absolute hero of the spivs in The City due to his keenness for PPP bullshit deals.
Yep! Gotta have foresight with traffic.
I’m not a big fan of PPR, they seem to in most cases disadvantage the taxpayers.
“The ‘subsidies’ of diesel fuel to miners are actually for fuel used off-road because the excise on fuel is supposed to be for road funding. So if you are using the fuel for other than driving on roads, why should you pay the excise? The same logic applies to farmers.”
Why should they pay the excise?
We could start by rewording the reason for the fuel excise to be for general government revenue rather than for road funding.
Arbitrarily allocating a tax to pay for a program is a recipe for foolishness, e.g. the Abbott governments proposal for doctors fees to pay for medical research.
The government should raise funds wherever and wherever appropriate and spend them likewise. Making sure an individual entity benefits or not from a component of the tax they pay is not the reason for governments.
The extreme left Insiders only gets Gerard on for a laugh.
Meant to refer to expenditure of universities and the mix that is spent on management, administration, marketing & research vs educating students. Through friendships with university staff, administrators and my own attendance I believe their is huge wastage of funding at multiple levels.
In regards to SERCO I put it that a large number of the contracts they are given could have been tighter (read less costly to the taxpayer) and in some places the contracting out to the private sector may have been inappropriate, Rather than go into specifics – it would take too long I mean this to illustrate that governments tend to poorly contract with the private sector – often providing the sector with a huge win at taxpayer expense. This happens across all departments and activities.
I would love to see Tony Abbott as head of News Corp in Oz. Readership would plummet even further and all the articles will attack Truffles.
terrible poll for Bill Shorten and the ALP
Gerard is hilarious , he should be on more often. One can never get enough reminders of the wharfies “strike” during WWII. I long for the return of Pies Ackerman , another fine exponent of political comedy.
mmmmm!! Okay, I will treat it like the last ABS unemployment jobs growth numbers, will look too see other polls before deciding if this is the new world
oh my goodness !!
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 34s35 seconds ago
#Ipsos Poll Preferred PM: Turnbull 69 (+2)]
WOW !! Kevin Rudd levels. What ever happened to him ?
Not surprised by Turnbull’s approval numbers, the simple message to the righties who swore black and blue that you had to be like Tony to be popular, just sit back and enjoy these numbers.
[Nov 16 2015 at 7:00 PM
Fairfax Ipsos poll: Voters back GST rise…with compensation
by Phillip Coorey Laura Tingle
A majority of voters supports increasing the rate of GST if it includes compensation for lower and middle-income earners, providing a solid policy reform foundation for the Turnbull government, which has surged to its biggest lead yet over Labor.
The latest Fairfax/Ipsos monthly poll shows the Coalition continuing to stretch its lead under Malcolm Turnbull to now lead Labor by 56 per cent to 44 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.
This shift, matched by a further decline in Labor’s fortunes and those of its leader Bill Shorten, may have been influenced partly by the Paris terror attacks and Mr Turnbull’s response. It represents a 3 percentage point swing to the Coalition since the last poll and also since the 2013 federal election.
Since the last poll in October, there has been intense debate about the GST and tax reform in general. The latest poll finds support for a GST increase in isolation has plunged from 37 per cent to 28 per cent since April, while opposition has risen 7 percentage points over the same period to 66 per cent.
However, when voters are asked whether they supported an increased GST if accompanied by tax cuts and other forms of compensation for household on incomes of less than $100,000, support almost doubles to 52 per cent while opposition plunges to 41 per cent.
The findings will buoy the government. While it has yet to formally decide on whether to increase the GST to pay for the reduction of other taxes, it has been modelling scenarios.
Despite it being highly likely that high-income earners will not be compensated for a GST increase, the poll finds they are more supportive of the change than those who stood to be compensated.
Nervous backbenchers wary of backlash
Of those on incomes of more than $100,000 34 per cent support a GST increase. This falls to 27 per cent among those earning between $40,000 and $100,000, and 22 per cent for those earning less than $40,000.
Despite nervous backbenchers warning of a backlash from an increased GST, Mr Turnbull has repeatedly assured that any increase would be offset by compensation in the form of tax cuts and welfare increases for the low and middle paid.
The poll suggests voters are much more hostile to an increased GST than they were to the original decision to impose a GST in 1998.
The poll of 1402 voters was taken from Thursday night to Saturday night last week, during which time, Mr Turnbull was in Jakarta and Berlin and 129 innocent people were slaughtered and 350 more wounded in the Paris terror attacks.
Traditionally voters flock to the incumbent in times of terror, as they did after September 11, 2001.
This poll finds the Coalition’s primary vote has risen 3 points since last month to 48 per cent while Labor’s primary fell a point to 29 per cent, which is lower than the 33 per cent it received at the 2013 election.
The Greens fell a point since last month to 13 per cent.]
I agree in most cases mexicanbeemer, my super fund has done well fully invested in sustainable shares for the last 15 years, beating the average return of the market.
But whether this will be true 50 years into the future with the likelihood of population stabilisation (or even collapse), possibility of violent conflict and climate change is surely at least not a completely closed case.
Taking 15% of a 18 year olds earnings in 2020 and holding it until he is (likely by the time he is allowed to touch it at least) 75 draws a very long bow to reliably predict the economic returns over that time especially in a more energy and resource constrained world.
A resounding success?
The Paris attacks have provided Turnbull with yet another opportunity to say “Look, I’m not Abbott!”
L G H
It is a very long time and I’m not a fan of placing all the eggs in the one basket.
If those ipsos PPM figures are accurate and hold through till early next year, the ALP caucus may yet look for another leader to save the furniture.
By all means pick on my many typos but would you like me to laid the blame for my spelling at the feet of the party that was in government when I was at school.
I guess you wont.
Greens vote overestimated in both polls today imo, though I do think it is above the 10% reported last week in Newspoll/Essential
[But whether this will be true 50 years into the future with the likelihood of population stabilisation (or even collapse), possibility of violent conflict and climate change is surely at least not a completely closed case.]
You can say that about anything in life, unless of course you belong to one of those weird sects that knows when the world is going to end.
I don’t know what will happen to me tomorrow, but I still a have a plan to do a few things.
Rex Douglas @ 1892: May as well give the drover’s dog a go. Couldn’t do any worse.
I miss my winking 😉
So, what do you make of this lemmings?
@GhostWhoVotes #Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 56 (+3) ALP 44 (-3)
Its not just preferred PM that’s horrible now, the 2PP has crashed as well.
I still think it’s peak honeymoon for Turnbull though, Lorax.
If Bill Shorten had more commitment to the Labor movement than to his personal desire to be Prime Minister he would resign as leader and wholeheartedly endorse his successor. It isn’t as though he has been advocating a bold agenda and this has hurt his popularity. He is unpopular because of his failure to present a compelling agenda, and because his inability to communicate effectively to a national audience.