Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

Newspoll provides yet another incremental improvement to the Coalition’s poll position.

The always reliable James J relates in comments that the latest Newspoll result is 53-47 in favour of the Coalition, up from 52-48 a fortnight ago. More to follow.

UPDATE: Primary votes are Coalition 46% (up one), Labor 34% (down one) and Greens 10% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings finally appear to be levelling off, with his approval down two to 56% and disapproval up one to 24%. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 27% and down one on disapproval to 57%, while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 61-18, which is little changed on the 63-17 result last time.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds the Coalition losing the point it gained on two-party preferred last week, putting its lead back at 52-48. Primary votes are Coalition 45% (steady), Labor 35% (up one) and Greens 10% (down one). The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull’s approval up nine points from his debut on approval to 56% and up three on disapproval to 20%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 27% and up five to 47%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister widens substantially, from 48-19 to 55-14. Also featured:

• Forty-three support mining and exporting of uranium with 30% opposed, while support and opposition for nuclear power plants in Australia are tied at 40%. However, only 31% support development of nuclear waste storage facilities, with 50% opposed.

• If it’s taken as a given that revenue needs to be raised, 27% favour increasing the GST, 26% favour increasing income taxes and 14% favour expanding the GST to cover food, health and education. If it’s taken as a given that the GST needs to be expanded, 54% favour increasing the rate from 10% to 15%, and 46% favour removing the exemptions.

• Seventy-seven per cent oppose changing the voting age, with only 14% agreeing it should be voluntary for sixteen and seventeen year olds, and 4% believing it should be compulsory for them.

• Sixty-three per cent approve of the decision to end the knights and dames awards.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,044 thoughts on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. victoria:

    PvO’s book is being released in sections to the Oz starting tomorrow. It’s subtitled why the Liberals “shirt-fronted” Abbott. Isn’t it obvious?

    I don’t know why you’d need to buy a book to understand why!

  2. Rossmcg & Victoria

    Re the Family Office Institute Australia:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-institute-with-no-members-embarrasses-senate-committee-20151029-gkm71n.html

    The transparency bill was introduced on August 20 and a Senate committee was asked to scrutinise the legislation.

    The inquiry was unusual for the lack of submissions – just nine (seven in favour, two against) – for a bill that had supposedly caused such widespread angst in the business community. Senator Cory Bernard’s “halal inquiry” received more than 1300 submissions, the “nanny state” inquiry 418 and the corporate tax avoidance inquiry 120.

    Two members of the Senate committee, independent senator Nick Xenophon and Greens senator Peter Whish-Wilson, both said they were “embarrassed” to learn evidence had been accepted from an institute with no members.

    “I wasn’t aware of the history of the so-called Family Office Institute and I should have been,” Senator Xenophon said.

    Senator Whish-Wilson said: “It is very concerning to me if good public policy gets hijacked by special interests and it angers me that the committee did not pick this up. We have all got egg on our faces.”

    He said the Tax Justice Network, which is a genuine coalition of non-vested interests in tax transparency, had fought for 10 years for the disclosure law but “senators on the crossbench were prepared to listen to the arguments of a few narrow interests”.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senate-repeals-tax-secrecy-law-after-astroturf-revelations-20151111-gkwm10.html

    In a stunning change of heart, crossbenchers Nick Xenophon and Ricky Muir reversed their previous position in support of an exemption for privately owned companies with revenues of more than $100 million a year.

    The Greens, supported by Labor, led the push to reverse the exemption in response to a Fairfax Media investigation, published Monday, which revealed one of the key stakeholder organisations used to justify exempting the largest private companies was actually a front group without any members.

    He said the matter was of significant public interest and the Greens acted once “new information came to light”.

    “And that information was basically that we’ve been ‘astroturfed’ by a front organisation that appeared during the committee process and senators themselves have admitted had an impact on their decision,” he said.

    The Greens amendment was supported Senators Xenophon and Muir after the insertion of two key clauses.

  3. I think he’d be a strong candidate of the ALP and it’s a shame he’s been mired with controversy, though if Nova Peris made it through fine, so can Adam Goodes.

  4. Considering we are in the age of QE, I wonder if people here think the government should have the RBA do a bit of money printing with the money being funneled into low to middle income earners super up until that person as at least a certain amount?

    QE is simply an asset swap: bonds for cash. It doesn’t change the net financial position of the domestic non-government sector. In other words, the total amount of financial assets in the domestic non-government sector stays the same; the portfolio is just reshuffled. Fewer bonds, more reserves.

    I am surprised that a person who professes to work in the financial sector does not understand this basic fact.

  6. victoria@987

    Rowan
    Rowan – ‏@MalSplaining

    Labor eyes Adam Goodes as potential candidate for federal election http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/labor-eyes-adam-goodes-as-potential-candidate-for-federal-election/story-e6frg6n6-1227605273361 … … https://twitter.com/MalSplaining/status/645241954326867969 …

    Who are these people who seem to think pre-selections are their gift to bestow?

    Goodes would no doubt be a worthy candidate, but the party has processes and I am not aware of Goodes showing any political aspirations or being an ALP member.

  8. It will be interesting to see who the Greens choose as their candidate for Wills.

    The Greens 2103 fed candidate was Tim Read. He was also the Greens 2014 Vic candidate for Brunswick.

    Read is a doctor and medical researcher working in the public health system, currently in sexual health and HIV medicine. He has lived in Brunswick for more than two decades.

    There will again be a strong field of quality candidates.

  13. Goodes would no doubt be a worthy candidate, but the party has processes and I am not aware of Goodes showing any political aspirations or being an ALP member.

    The problem for celebrity candidates is that political parties are quite happy to leave them swinging in the wind if things go bad. Think Cheryl Kernot and Nicole Cornes, for example. It’s interests to do a bit of a party apprenticeship first and get an idea of who to trust and who is using you.

  15. Peter Garrett didn’t fare too well either.

    He was interviewed on ABC RN Religion and Ethics Report this evening.

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/religionandethicsreport/peter-garrett-kevin-rudd-betrayed-the-faith-labor-christianity/6931250

    Kevin Rudd was arguably Australia’s most publicly Christian prime minister in almost a century. He spoke frequently and sincerely about his faith, making him—you might assume—a natural ally of Peter Garrett, one of Australia’s most admired musicians and environmental activists, who became a federal Labor MP in 2004.

    Both men saw Christian social justice—the Social Gospel—as the basis of their politics. But in Garrett’s new memoir, Big Blue Sky, he savages his former prime minister. In this conversation with the Religion & Ethics Report, Garrett goes beyond the book to a source of tension within the Rudd government that has never been revealed.

  20. Pegasus@1019

    At the local shopping centre Garrett’s book was selling at half-price.

    And overpriced at that.
    He seems to have been afflicted by poor memory of events e.g. mistaking a cheque for an envelope of cash.

    Another celebrity blow in who was not a success. A tribute to the ‘genius’ of Latham who picked him.

  21. TheCrank @854

    briefly @832 – Both Singapore and Hong Kong are below 15%.

    In addition to the points made by briefly @864:
    – Employee contributions to the CPF, whilst not taxes are nevertheless compulsory (like … taxes), are used for all sorts of purposes (like … spending) and have been up to 36% of income
    – SG (and HK) has a very high proportion of economic activity that is exogenous (due to the fact they have very few resources) and this leads to an exceptionally high domestic savings ratio (as it must, since unlike Australia most things can’t be bought in the local currency) and this radically alters the fiscal position.

    SG/HK are in a completely different situation to the other advanced economies and all that can be said about them (particularlty SG) is that they have adopted a model that works well in that situation. The example does not inform anything in Australia (or US, UK, NZ, Germany, France etc) which is in a completely different situation.

  22. http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/nov/11/senate-setback-offers-coalition-an-ultimatum-on-multinational-tax-changes

    Labor, the Greens and four crossbenchers combined forces to reintroduce disclosure measures on Wednesday during a debate on the government’s bill to clamp down on multinational tax avoidance, setting the scene for an “all or nothing” decision

    When the amended multinational bill goes back to the House of Representatives for approval, the Coalition will face a decision about whether to insist on the legislation in its original form or accept the amendments.

    Rejecting the Senate’s changes could sink the government’s 2015 budget measure to give the Australian tax office greater powers to stop global companies using “artificial or contrived arrangements” to avoid tax obligations.

    The Coalition’s setback in the Senate on Wednesday follows Labor’s procedural bungle last month, when it did not call for a voting division on the government’s legislation to prevent Australian-owned private companies with annual turnover above $100m from having to publish details about the tax they pay in Australia. The legislation passed the Senate on 15 October.

    The new amendments were moved by the Greens senator Peter Whish-Wilson after protracted negotiations with Labor and crossbench senators, and passed the Senate 32 votes to 29.

    “The Greens, ALP and crossbench have worked constructively together in the public interest today, while the Liberals were busy trying to protect their big business mates.”

  25. victoria:

    The ‘endorsements’ keep coming:

    John Lyons ‏@TheLyonsDen 9m9 minutes ago
    John Lyons Retweeted The Australian
    This is a must read for anyone interested in politics @australian

  27. “median wage is $46,900”

    I don’t know if I believe that statistic, but lets start by noting that the median is the point where we see 50% above and 50% below.

    We know that about a third of the population has a degree, and about another third might have a trade certificate, if I have these two groups calculated correctly then that on its own is enough to bring that median into question as there would be very few people with formal qualifications on less than at $50k.

    Of course I do accept that there would be many part time who would clearly be below the stated median.

  30. I would argue there should be no GST on electricity bills (power companies that is .. not the opposition leader) as it is an essential like water. Bank charges GST exempt ??? Why? Although I notice GST seems to be charged upon some credit card fees to add insult to injury.

    Sorry I don’t stick around to debate but time is scarce and I could never match the wisdom of most regular pbers. Also I am a slow burner and my post is usually 50 posts ago by the time I think of a response. Have a peaceful evening.

  33. Thanks Jimmy

    After I posted, I went and had a look at the ABS as I was wondering if the media was based on everyone or just those in the in the workforce, if it was based on the whole population then it makes more sense.

  35. “I think he’d be a strong candidate of the ALP and it’s a shame he’s been mired with controversy, though if Nova Peris made it through fine, so can Adam Goodes.”

    Adam Goodes in the minds of many Australians is a racist.

    I know this shocks some on the left.. how can someone who isn’t white be racist.. scratching your heads as you do in disbelief.

    Well lets check his back history.

    He called Australia Day “invasion day” despite being the beneficiary not only of the Day itself(getting the Aussie of the Year Medal) but also his sports car he drives to work in and the mansion he rests his little head on when he goes home at night.

    Then he attacked a 13 year old white girl who made a remark against him(inappropriate but not necessarily racist) and effectively destroyed her life because he was offended.

    And then he attacked spectators by throwing a fake spear at them in an intimidating manner.. of course that’s not racist to leftists… it’s just like if a white man stood up and shot at him with a pretend rifle… oh shit.. wait… that’s different in your mind right?

    Frankly the guy is his own worst enemy. People don’t boo other black sports stars… only him… because he is a racist dickhead who brings it on himself.

    And on that note… Johnny Thurston is a legend and is 10 times the man the knobhead Goodsie ever wishes he was. And he’s black.

  37. EGT
    Contrary to popular belief in those two cities, people do live and own houses outside of Sydney and Melbourne. Our houses will not pay back the pension.

  38. Nicholas @1004

    I think MB was suggesting simply that QE shows that overt monetary financing (“printing money”) can be safe in some circumstances, in particular the current circumstances.

    Ben Bernanke in fact argued the Bank of Japan should do it (Friedman’s “helicopter money”) in the early 1990s (and has arguably been proven correct).

    See:

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2014-08-11/print-less-transfer-more

    for a longish discussion, and a slightly more technical discussion, here:

    http://mainlymacro.blogspot.com.au/2014/10/helicopter-money.html

  39. Puff @1037

    My apologies: I was assuming (but did not state) that only the value above some amount would be subject to the lien. No-one (as far as I know) is proposing to eliminate the asset threshold but rather to reduce it:
    – the lowered threshold would be the point at which the lien applies
    – the current threshold (or even a higher threshold) would cause loss of access to the pension

  40. E. G. Theodore & Nicholas

    The whole current economic models have been brought into question since the GFC, traditionally it was viewed that such a large scale QE program would be inflationary, and maybe if the over supply commodity driven price falls has helped to avoid that inflation break out but it would appear that despite pushing equities higher the QE program that has been followed as had no real affect on the real economy.

  41. TrueBlueAussie
    Posted Thursday, November 12, 2015 at 12:57 am | Permalink
    …
    Adam Goodes in the minds of many Australians is a racist.

    As you are clearly a fringe RWNJ I don’t think you should be making any assumptions as to what “many Australians think”.

    I find you post quite entertaining in a perverse sort of way (people like this vote Liberal) but please don’t disparage the rest.

  42. I too think that Adam Goodes should be a lot more grateful to the white man for letting him drive our cars and use our electricity and stuff. Did I mention that some of my best friends were black?

  43. William Bowe
    Posted Thursday, November 12, 2015 at 6:14 am | Permalink

    I too think that Adam Goodes should be a lot more grateful to the white man for letting him drive our cars and use our electricity and stuff. Did I mention that some of my best friends were black?William Bowe
    Posted Thursday, November 12, 2015 at 6:14 am | Permalink

    Be careful with sarcasm; TBA and his ilk aren’t too bright; you will start getting patriotic front invites.

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