Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

Newspoll provides yet another incremental improvement to the Coalition’s poll position.

The always reliable James J relates in comments that the latest Newspoll result is 53-47 in favour of the Coalition, up from 52-48 a fortnight ago. More to follow.

UPDATE: Primary votes are Coalition 46% (up one), Labor 34% (down one) and Greens 10% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings finally appear to be levelling off, with his approval down two to 56% and disapproval up one to 24%. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 27% and down one on disapproval to 57%, while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 61-18, which is little changed on the 63-17 result last time.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds the Coalition losing the point it gained on two-party preferred last week, putting its lead back at 52-48. Primary votes are Coalition 45% (steady), Labor 35% (up one) and Greens 10% (down one). The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull’s approval up nine points from his debut on approval to 56% and up three on disapproval to 20%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 27% and up five to 47%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister widens substantially, from 48-19 to 55-14. Also featured:

• Forty-three support mining and exporting of uranium with 30% opposed, while support and opposition for nuclear power plants in Australia are tied at 40%. However, only 31% support development of nuclear waste storage facilities, with 50% opposed.

• If it’s taken as a given that revenue needs to be raised, 27% favour increasing the GST, 26% favour increasing income taxes and 14% favour expanding the GST to cover food, health and education. If it’s taken as a given that the GST needs to be expanded, 54% favour increasing the rate from 10% to 15%, and 46% favour removing the exemptions.

• Seventy-seven per cent oppose changing the voting age, with only 14% agreeing it should be voluntary for sixteen and seventeen year olds, and 4% believing it should be compulsory for them.

• Sixty-three per cent approve of the decision to end the knights and dames awards.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,044 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. [Allow people with a large family home / principal residence asset to claim the pension but place a lien on the asset such that when it is sold or inherited the pension payments are repaid to the government.]

    While neither side of politics seems to have any interesting in actually reforming retirement income policy in a sensible way, if you are going to do so you cannot ignore the home, it is a key element of retirement. You can’t disregard its value, to do so will create stupid outcomes.

    The home also needs to come into the CGT net, there is no real reason to exclude it.

    There should in fact be a mechanism to allow super to go into the home (and mechanisms to ensure the super value is preserved) early in the cycle. That is if you like the carrot, the stick is that the value must count to the asset test and the home must be subject to CGT.

    You could also have a mechanism to reward post retirement downsizing.

  2. Am I allowed to ask who the nicknames “Oili ness” and “Rod ent” refer to, upon reading section 12 of the Comment moderation guidelines, even though they’re banned? (Even if I’m not I’m banned now 😛 )

  3. It was a group of 10 or so senior tax experts. Not one of them thought there was any risk of Turnbull losing and not one of them thought there was any chance a returned Turnbull wouldn’t increase the GST to 15%. Like me they all thought that there was no political win and lots of pain in expanding the base.

  4. Victoria – So you spend 30 years as a young adult propping up everybody else, then you become elderly and they suddenly decide to charge you full freight. What garbage.
    Yet Morrison is desperately keen to make sure that none of his mates are “retrospectively” affected by super changes.

  5. [ Yet Morrison is desperately keen to make sure that none of his mates are “retrospectively” affected by super changes. ]

    The Libs are cruising at the moment on the basis of Malcolm’s pleasantness…..and the fact he is not Abbott.

    But, people are expecting policy, particularly on tax and i suspect they are getting an inkling about now that it may not be as easy as they thought to dig themselves out of the hole Abbott and Hockey excavated in 2014.

  6. [Am I allowed to ask who the nicknames “Oili ness” and “Rod ent” refer to, upon reading section 12 of the Comment moderation guidelines, even though they’re banned?]

    Quite a few of the MGs are dead letters remaining from the days when I applied a firmer hand. It was once the style to call John Howard “the rodent”, and no doubt still is in certain circles. “Oiliness” dates from the Obama vs Clinton wars of 2008, and was a nickname adopted by certain supporters of the latter (perhaps just the one, actually) to denigrate the former. Certain of Obama’s supporters purported to find this racist, such was the atmosphere of theatrical high dudgeon at the time, and I think I agreed to add it to the list for the sake of a quiet life.

  7. [So by “people” you mean “people with a vested interest”.]

    I’m not sure I mean people who know a lot about tax, one or two of them might have worked for advising firms but most didn’t.

    Most were concerned about cost / inconvenience of implementing the change.

  8. TBA @268

    If Adam Crieghton thinks these “disparities are remarkable” then I’m guess mathematics isn’t his thing: that’s the way ordered bins (quintiles in this case) work in a zero sum game.

    In contrast to the innumerate sensationalism in the headline some other points in the article are quite good (e.g. regarding taxing income rather than wealth) but tend to undermine the sensationalist headline. For example if one adds in capital appreciation on homes (in addition to imputed rent) then the picture alters rather a lot. Add in the source of that capital appreciation (government spending on the infrastructure and public goods in the vicinity) and it shifts further.

  9. TPOF

    Ooops , escaped too soon . Re Pope’s Napoleon Turnbull cartoon. Team Tones will be like the Bourbons of which it was said
    [They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing. ]

  10. [ such was the atmosphere of theatrical high dudgeon at the time]

    Here’s hoping this US Presidential contest brings such a level of passion and excitement.

  11. [exemption in response to a Fairfax Media investigation, published Monday, which revealed one of the key stakeholder organisations used to justify exempting the largest private companies was actually a front group without any members.
    The Family Office Institute Australia, which was quoted at length in a Senate committee report, was established in August by two lawyers and a Canberra lobbyist who represent Australia’s ultra-rich in disputes with the Australian Tax Office.]

    Read more:
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  12. Victoria

    What bothers me most about the family office institute business is that if I read the story correctly, the senate committee report seems to have basically copied the institutes submission

    That would seem to me that the Tory senators were in on the scam or they just failed hopelessly to do their jobs or a combination of both

  13. poroti @ 971

    It was always a hallmark of Abbott to be like those Bourbons. His whole leadership was to play the policies and successes of yesteryear without any consideration of what had changed. Time moved on while he clung doggedly to the certainties of the past.

    He certainly seems to be biding his time hoping for Napoleon Turncoat to be defeated by others, upon which point he will be recalled to his rightful throne, gathering around him the relics of the Ancien Regime, like Abetz and Bernardi. But who will play Metternich?

  14. rossmcg

    […was actually a front group without any members.

    The Family Office Institute Australia, which was quoted at length in a Senate committee report,]

    It really is appalling. How often does this crap go on I wonder ?

  15. [perhaps just the one, actually]

    I’m pretty sure it was mainly ron, but Flipper Boy couldn’t help himself.

    I don’t recall it being considered racist but I might have missed it.

    [ such was the atmosphere of theatrical high dudgeon at the time

    Here’s hoping this US Presidential contest brings such a level of passion and excitement.]

    That’s not going to happen. Hillary will be the Dem candidate, no-one cares who wins the Repug and we will all support Clinton.

  16. [That’s not going to happen. Hillary will be the Dem candidate, no-one cares who wins the Repug and we will all support Clinton.]

    Sad but the logic is compelling.

  17. TPOF

    [.., gathering around him the relics of the Ancien Regime, like Abetz and Bernardi]
    Ah yes I can see it now. Tony Bourbon returned to the throne after Napoleon Turnbull’s defeat at Waterloo 2016 . Hurrah for Bill Wellington 😆

  18. [Victims of domestic violence needed to be recognised in the same way Australia honours the sacrifice of soldiers in war, a former chief of army says.

    David Morrison, speaking at the launch of a national framework to address violence against women and children, says Australia does not celebrate the victories of women.

    On Wednesday – Remembrance Day – the hundreds of thousands who died in war over the past century would be recalled, he said.

    “We will honour the courage of those men and women,” the retired lieutenant-general, who made headlines with his 2013 video calling out sexist soldiers, told the audience.

    “And yet we don’t do that for the millions of women and children who throughout that century have been the victims of domestic violence.”]

    I do like the work Morrison has done in trying to clean up the culture of the ADF, but I’m not sure how I feel about honouring family violence survivors in the same way those soldiers lost at war are remembered.

    I’ll need some more convincing on this.

  19. TheCrank @780

    six million out of 12.7 million — close to half the nation’s
    income-tax payers — paid about $21 a week in tax in this year

    “close to half” is a clue…

  20. lizzie@755

    In my ‘trawling’ for the morning news, I posted a couple of links to statements by Mr Rudd, as I would for Ms Gillard and Mr Abbott, on the assumption that bludgers might find opinions and activities of past PMs of some interest.

    This does not mean that I support or reject these reports. I am, in my apprenticeship to BK, merely a keeper of records.

    It is quite ridiculous that certain posters immediately assume bias on my (or any other commenter’s) part and leap to the defence of these public figures. It is definitely a kind of bullying, as is this “are you a member?” nonsense.

    Good of you to raise this lizzie, so lets look at the facts since you haven’t named names.

    BEFORE your posts, victoria contributed..

    Rudd says Turnbull has made a good start but beware nut jobs

    followed by Puff …
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.@510

    Is Rudd ever going to learn to keep his trap shut?

    and confessions …

    Rudd is doing a look at me. Always after the publicity that one.

    and confessions again …


    Gillard cleaned up Rudd’s mess so no way was he going to thank her for it.


    Before anyone else said anything.
    So lets be clear where this crap comes from.
    My humble contribution after your posts was simply to dismiss this crap with the comment…

    Just about had my daily quota of laughs already after reading the indignant ravings of the ‘Rudd Haters’.

    Maintain the rage children!

  21. An example of the backward-ness of WA. The state govt regulates the growing and supply of potatoes.

    [The Supreme Court handed down an injunction preventing Mr Galati growing more than his quota of 6000 tonnes under an agreement with the Government’s potato marketing watchdog.

    The Potato Marketing Corporation sought the injunction with the support of the peak body representing other growers in WA.

    Mr Galati and his lawyers will continue the fight against the quota system in a Supreme Court trial. They will argue that attempts to control supply and price under WA legislation dating back 70 years breach Australia’s competition laws.]

  22. rossmcg@889

    Pathetic stuff from The Age

    Labor factional chiefs are sounding out television celebrities as possible preselection candidates amid a frenzy of manoeuvring for the high profile federal seat of Wills in Melbourne’s north west.
    Ex-Seven Network journalist Helen Kapalos​ has been approached, including by frontbencher David Feeney, while former SBS presenter Mary Kostakidis​ is being discussed as a potential candidate.

    But a dozen paragraphs later

    A spokeswoman for the Victorian Multicultural Commission, where Ms Kapalos is the new chairwoman, said she would not run for pre-selection.
    Ms Kostakidis said she had not been approached and was not interested in running. ACTU President Ged Kearney has already ruled out running.

    Read more:

    It’s pathetic if true.

    Labor should not be courting celebrities, we have enough talent within our ranks.

    If Feeney and others are so keen on celebrities, let them stand aside in their seats.

  23. TheCrank @841

    The amount of income tax paid and the average marginal rate of those high income earners puts paid to the lies about the rich not paying tax.

    We are not Greece.


    I hope you realise all that data has taxpayers ordered and binned by taxable income

    It is no surpise at all that someone with a high taxable income pays a high amount of tax!

    The problem is that “the rich” and “people with a high taxable income” are not one and the same: whilst everyone with a high taxable income is at least somewhat “rich” not everyone who is rich has a high taxable income – some of “the rich” choose to reduce their taxable income aggressively and hence pay little or no tax.

  24. [Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 50m50 minutes ago
    First extract out tomorrow in the @Australian… More over the weekend. ]

    On why the Liberals “shirt-fronted” Abbott. Isn’t it obvious? Surely we don’t need to buy a book to understand why.

  25. Airlines

    He would be. Although the controversy surrounding him over the past football season has been divisive in the community. Stupid as that is.

  26. TheCrank @850

    Singapore and Hong Kong – perhaps you’d like to quote them?

    I love both those places.

    Public Transport heaven.

    Both SG and HK have significant land value taxes – ideal for city states and the best option available in general. Hence they have lower rates for the various other (less efficient and in some cases downright insane) taxes, though SG does have stamp duty for some reason.

    I take it you’re now a convert?

  27. Doyley

    If you believe what you have written them I should expect no further comments from you re the policy direction and the internal machinations of the labor party.

    Why are you so sensitive to criticism of the Labor Party? It isn’t your family, for f***’s sake. Don’t be so tribal.

  28. Airlines:

    I remember the fuss and carry on made when Nova Peris was nominated as a Labor candidate, and so far she’s done okay. We usually see outrage from white Australians whenever black people are given a leg up and I imagine it would be the same for Goodes, whatever he decides for his post footy career.

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