Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

Newspoll provides yet another incremental improvement to the Coalition’s poll position.

The always reliable James J relates in comments that the latest Newspoll result is 53-47 in favour of the Coalition, up from 52-48 a fortnight ago. More to follow.

UPDATE: Primary votes are Coalition 46% (up one), Labor 34% (down one) and Greens 10% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings finally appear to be levelling off, with his approval down two to 56% and disapproval up one to 24%. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 27% and down one on disapproval to 57%, while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 61-18, which is little changed on the 63-17 result last time.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds the Coalition losing the point it gained on two-party preferred last week, putting its lead back at 52-48. Primary votes are Coalition 45% (steady), Labor 35% (up one) and Greens 10% (down one). The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull’s approval up nine points from his debut on approval to 56% and up three on disapproval to 20%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 27% and up five to 47%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister widens substantially, from 48-19 to 55-14. Also featured:

• Forty-three support mining and exporting of uranium with 30% opposed, while support and opposition for nuclear power plants in Australia are tied at 40%. However, only 31% support development of nuclear waste storage facilities, with 50% opposed.

• If it’s taken as a given that revenue needs to be raised, 27% favour increasing the GST, 26% favour increasing income taxes and 14% favour expanding the GST to cover food, health and education. If it’s taken as a given that the GST needs to be expanded, 54% favour increasing the rate from 10% to 15%, and 46% favour removing the exemptions.

• Seventy-seven per cent oppose changing the voting age, with only 14% agreeing it should be voluntary for sixteen and seventeen year olds, and 4% believing it should be compulsory for them.

• Sixty-three per cent approve of the decision to end the knights and dames awards.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,044 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Goor morning.

    Access Ministries offering a religious instruction program called Explore Christianity, at Emmanuel Early Learning in Endeavour Hills. It plans to expand the course to other childcare centres and kindergartens next year.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/a-controversial-religious-instruction–program-is-being-taught-at–preschool-20151109-gkufkr.html
    The Senate’s most powerful committee is set to probe whether senior government, Transfield Services and Wilson Security officials gave false or misleading evidence
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senate-committee-to-probe-spy-operation-targeting-sarah-hansonyoung-20151109-gkumv4.html
    “We heard him screaming. I think they were chasing him through the jungle. Then the screams just stopped.”
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/christmas-island-detention-centre-staff-moved-for-the-own-safety-amid-unrest-20151109-gkubxu.html
    Euthanasia advocate Dr Rodney Syme tells the Q&A program he hopes to be prosecuted for administering the drug Nembutal to dying patients so he can be a legal test case.
    http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/qa-recap-andrew-denton-leads-debate-for-euthanasia-during-emotionallycharged-episode-20151110-gkur8k.html
    Honourable though his course is, Turnbull’s task is by far the harder. His “inconceivable” line could yet be the yardstick against which he, too, fails to measure.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/malcolm-turnbull-takes-out-some-early-insurance-in-risky-gst-debate-20151109-gkunyq.html
    “Helpers of God’s Precious Infants” seek to coerce women arriving to see their doctor for abortion, pap tests, contraception and other vital healthcare.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/safe-access-to-abortion-clinics-must-be-guaranteed-by-law-20151107-gktfdv.html
    “The Australian elector was very, very sympathetic to the argument that as long as that money essentially went to a good cause then it would get a sympathetic response from the electorate,”
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-to-raise-tobacco-taxes-again-to-pay-for-gonski-reforms-20151109-gku8lj.html
    Australia must deepen investment and trade with China as quickly possible to avoid surrendering advantage to other countries
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/get-into-china-fast-top-diplomat-says-ahead-of-free-trade-deal-20151109-gkumjf.html
    The trade union royal commission has apologised to Bill Shorten’s lawyers for not returning their phone calls before a raft of documents were released late last Friday night
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/union-royal-commission-apologises-for-not-returning-calls-to-bill-shortens-lawyers-20151109-gkudp8.html

  2. There was nothing in Fletcher’s manner to suggest that innovation was afoot, either. Indeed, he was reading from what looked suspiciously like a totally prepared answer.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/playing-spot-the-difference-with-revamped-question-time-20151109-gkufjq.html
    Martin. GST and income tax proposals tinker around the edges of the real problems.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/why-action-on-superannuation-is-essential-to-the-success-of-tax-reform-20151108-gktvvn.html
    “We’ve checked…the transport Inspectors aren’t able to use a false name, they have to, in the line of their duty, provide accurate information”
    http://www.theage.com.au/queensland/uber-using-technology-to-avoid-fines-from-queensland-government-20151108-gkts8q.html
    If you’re proven to be healthy and hit the set goals, you could save hundreds of dollars in insurance premiums each year.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/watch-your-weight-mlc-offers-discounts-for-healthy-customers-20151104-gkqne0.html
    Like a giant golf ball or an igloo opened up, with panels of glass reaching almost the full height of the dome, it looks nothing like the functional building that preceded it.
    http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/art-and-design/is-this-the-worlds-wildest-library-geelongs-45-million-big-brain-about-to-open-up-to-the-world-20151109-gkue6r.html
    “The idea was we could colour-code them so people know which are the more dangerous, or more difficult breaks, compared to the easy ones.”
    http://www.theage.com.au/queensland/gold-coast-surf-breaks-could-be-colourcoded-to-sort-beginners-from-pros-20151109-gku1vm.html
    The kinds of suburbs a recent study measured as Perth’s hottest were same ones featuring new developments with seas of black roofs
    http://www.theage.com.au/wa-news/angry-grandma-fights-to-cool-down-perths-hottest-suburbs-outlaw-black-roofs-20151106-gksya2.html
    Russia operated a huge state sponsored doping programme that effectively sabotaged the London 2012 Olympics
    http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/nov/09/wada-iaaf-russia-dick-pound-banned
    Got a terrible tax idea, or a way to make health services inaccessible and expensive, and don’t know how to make it into law? Your news of the day, reduced to a snarky rant.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-how-the-government-is-sneaking-bad-ideas-past-you-20151109-gkuke8.html

  3. briefly @ 48:

    All the mechanics of the cycles suggest he should try to get through til October next year, run then, expect to win, and have a whole three years to implement his agenda.

    Agree entirely. Turnbull doesn’t want to blow his opportunity like he did in 2009. He’s going to spend the next 10-11 months developing his reform agenda and go to the polls with it late next year. My guess is it will be comprehensive, but not Fightback! radical, and will include plenty of stolen Labor policy (super concessions etc)

    BTW guys this idea that Labor isn’t running a GST scare campaign is a bit silly. It might be a very worthy scare campaign, and an increased GST may well be a very regressive move, but its still a scare campaign. How can it not be, when Turnbull hasn’t announced anything?

  4. Peter Martin very good today. Super should be the #1 priority for tax reform not GST.

    Martin suggests no tax break at all for super contributions and zero tax on earnings. I think that might be a bridge too far, I reckon Turnbull will go for a 15% tax *break* on contributions (vs the existing 15% flat tax on contributions) and keep the 15% tax on earnings.

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/why-action-on-superannuation-is-essential-to-the-success-of-tax-reform-20151108-gktvvn.html

  5. Senators elected in a DD in 2016 who get long terms have their start date backdated to the previous July ie July 2015 which would mean the next election could be in the first half of 2018.

    If the senators getting longer terms are decided as if there was a half senate election then it will go to the parties that get the required 14% for a half senate. First pass, 2 senators have the required 14%. Second pass, 2 senators have 14%. Parties now have Coalition 10%, Labor 2%, Greens 10%, Others 22%. Hard to predict for sure but the Coalition certainly gets 2 of the 6 and probably 3 with the other going Green.

    If they choose to give longer terms in order of election in the DD. First pass 3 are elected (Coalition, Labor, Greens) Second pass, 2 are elected. Third pass and Coalition has more votes than Labor for the last long term position.

    In either case the selection of long term senators favours the coalition giving them half the seats. Any legislation would be passed with the support of either Labor or Greens or Xenephon or the Christian/Family or Outdoor/Recreation.

  6. lizzie

    You won’t be doing BK’s blood pressure any good with these couple of links.
    [Access Ministries …….It plans to expand the course to other childcare centres and kindergartens next year.]
    .
    [“Helpers of God’s Precious Infants” seek to coerce women arriving ……]

    The effect of the Howard years has yet to be cleansed from the nation.

    [God under Howard: The rise of the religious right in Australia

    Marion Maddox’s powerful analysis of the insidious growth of the religious Right in Australian politics demonstrates the danger of this ignorance. For all the acres of newsprint devoted to political commentary in this country, the influence of fundamentalist varieties of Christianity within the Howard Government over a period of years now has gone virtually unreported.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/Reviews/God-under-Howard/2005/02/23/1109046981178.html

  8. poroti

    I felt it was my duty to include them!! I am not a demoniser of all religions, but the determination of Access Ministries to infiltrate the education system makes my blood boil.

  9. I had always assumed that those dreadful religious bullies who hover around the clinics were only protesting against abortions, but I see that women who are merely attending for contraceptive advice or pap smears get the same nasty treatment. The state government should have acted sooner to ban them, especially after they caused a guard’s death.

  10. lizzie

    No criticism , was posted with a bit of a 🙂 at the thought of BK’s reaction to such news. Not that I am at all happy with that sort of crap going on either.

  13. BK

    Time for parental activists to return the infiltration.

    In my childhood I went for 1 year the the Chrisian Science Scripture class. (My mother’s latest fad, supported by the fact that we had friends in the class). Now since me and my two siblings were already pretty atheistic (or at least strong believers in evolution) we asked some strong questions of the poor teacher who eventually walked out of the class in tears.

    We did not return!!!!!

    My eldest son took up the tradition terrorising all religion teachers with his questions. Of course he was lucky in that his first religious instruction teacher at a private “religious” school, did not actually believe in god. He retired and was replaced by someone who did believe in god, but as she was a black activist from South Africa, the issues discussed were human rights focussed.

  14. Looks like maybe James Massola has been given penance duty for all his braggadocio on the Shorten case being a dead set loser for Bill.

    He’s finally getting the hang of it, but can’t resist a swipe:

    [The documents released by the commission on Friday night recommended no criminal charges be supported against Mr Shorten, though counsel assisting, Mr Stoljar, SC, found criminal charges should be considered against Mr Shorten’s factional ally and former AWU secretary Cesar Melhem…

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/union-royal-commission-apologises-for-not-returning-calls-to-bill-shortens-lawyers-20151109-gkudp8.html#ixzz3r1wsIrJC ]

    We KNOW that James. You don’t have to keep repeating it. The Royal Commission’s pit bull Counsel Assisting didn’t CARE about Bill’s being a mate of Cesar’s.

    Well, maybe he did. He sure tried hard enough to glue them together. But even Jeremy Stoljar knows that it’s a free country, and that you can be a mate of all kinds of people without having to take the rap for what they do when you’re long gone.

    Give it up. You got egg on your face. Accept it like an adult, and don’t whinge about it like a girly man.

  16. Lorex

    You could make super completely tax free but as a trade off make $500k for singles or $750k for couples the part pension threshold.

  17. [Martin suggests no tax break at all for super contributions and zero tax on earnings. I think that might be a bridge too far, I reckon Turnbull will go for a 15% tax *break* on contributions (vs the existing 15% flat tax on contributions) and keep the 15% tax on earnings.]

    I think that looks like a tax grab without policy thought or change. Perhaps Malcolm would get away with it but no one earning over $80,000 particularly those without assets would be wise to vote liberal if Labor is proposing this and Liberal isn’t.

    The policy should focused on the desired outcomes, what is the point in super. If it is to avoid people being on the pension then look to that outcome focus policy towards that outcome, rather than just slugging income tax earners.

    I think ‘experts’ mock it, but an option to put money into a super mortgage offset account might act as both a lever against the pretty nasty super industry and a carrot to get support.

  19. [but no one earning over $80,000 particularly those without assets would be wise to vote liberal if Labor is proposing this and Liberal isn’t]

    I mean of course everyone earning over $80k should vote liberal if Labor proposed a 15% discount to the income tax rate.

    There should also clearly be an point at which the wealth accumulated in super (and elsewhere) exceeds the policy aims and all the income in super is taxed.

    Also there needs to be rules to encourage sensible use of the wealth post retirement and Morrison isn’t smart enough to be the one to deliver them for us.

  21. If I understand the ALP’s proposals, that being the first $75k per year in super remains tax free then 15% above that, I don’t see anything necessarily wrong with that, surely if you have been successful enough to build such a nest egg and have been properly advised you would have a more diversify portfolio than having it all in super.

  23. [If I understand the ALP’s proposals, that being the first $75k per year in super remains tax free then 15% above that, I don’t see anything necessarily wrong with that, surely if you have been successful enough to build such a nest egg and have been properly advised you would have a more diversify portfolio than having it all in super.]

    No, if you don’t start off with ‘wealth’ why wouldn’t most if not all of your investments be in super.

    This whole annual thing misses the point entirely. If it is about total wealth accumulation, actually do more for those who really need it to be off the pension and have a cap (a wealth cap not an income cap) where all the the super incentives (and perhaps compulsory contributions) stop. This point would be when you started other forms of investment.

    If you only looking at income flows you are doing it wrong.

  24. confessions

    [
    Morning all.

    City folk learn what country residents have long known.]
    Perth peeps learnt that back in the 1980s. Praise be for the effect they had when introduced in WA.

  25. mexicanbeemer @ 71:

    The ALP proposals are pretty weak, especially on taxing contributions. All they’ve done is lower the threshold at which the 30% rate kicks in from $250K to $300K. Peter Martin is proposing something simpler and broader and suspect Turnbull’s natural inclination is to do something similar. Lots of fiddly thresholds that need to be constantly adjusted is best avoided.

    I’d love to see the ALP propose something braver as well, which might lead to bipartisanship on this issue, and a good outcome for the country.

  26. WWP

    In order to receive yearly income from super, you would need to have been on a high income over a lengthy period of time, however I get your point about wealth being different than income per-say

    If you have been able to earn a top income, enabling $80k a year in income from super, then you would surely have other investments unless your sold focus as been super.

  27. ALP Fremantle MP Melissa Parke is bringing a motion before caucus today on Labor’s refugee policy.

    https://newmatilda.com/2015/11/10/the-whos-who-of-australia-calls-on-labor-to-reset-its-refugee-policy/
    [Some of nation’s most iconic names in sport, the arts, science, the legal profession and academia have joined forces to call on the Labor Party to change track on refugee policy.

    The group, which now boasts 258 members, has petitioned the party to vote in favour of a motion going before caucus today demanding either greater independent oversight over offshore detention centres, or their complete closure.

    The group that resulted, which goes by the name ofCitizens for Change on Asylum Seekers (CCAS)…

    De Crespigny admits CCAS has not found an overwhelmingly sympathetic ear within Labor, especially from Shadow Minister for Immigration Richard Marles, who so far has not met with the group.

    The motion that will go before Labor’s caucus today asks the party to “…call upon the government to immediately ensure the conditions of offshore detention meet with human rights standards and independent oversight or, if the government is unable or unwilling to implement these standards, to close the centres on Manus Island and Nauru forthwith.”

    New Matilda understands the motion will be seconded by NSW MP Jill Hall, and backed by a small group including Anna Burke, Claire Moore, and Lisa Singh.

    The group yesterday drew praise from the Australian Churches Refugee Taskforce, who dubbed the quintet “brave”, and encouraged their colleagues to back the motion.

    Despite those calls the motion is still expected to fail, as a similar attempt did in 2014.]

  29. The great beauty of the Martin proposal is that it raises money from funds which don’t go directly into voter’s pockets anyway. Rather they are locked away for decades. So there would be no immediate effect. But you get to slug the rich VERY hard. The retail super funds would really squeal.
    I hope labor is looking at this proposal very closely. It would free up a bucket-load of money.

  30. https://newmatilda.com/2015/11/09/long-service-leave-even-if-you-change-jobs-thats-what-the-greens-are-gunning-for/
    [The Federal Senate has finally rewarded a long-running push from the Australian Greens to establish an inquiry into making workplace entitlements like long service leave ‘portable’ between jobs, clearing a path for a large segment of the Australian workforce to reclaim an employment condition that has eroded over time.

    Greens Employment and Workplace Relations spokesperson Adam Bandt has advocated a national portable long service leave scheme for years, and the former industrial relations lawyer said he said he hopes the Senate inquiry leads to lasting reform.

    The Federal Labor party had voted against earlier Greens motions calling for a Senate inquiry, but today’s vote passed ‘on the voices’ with Labor’s support. The inquiry is due to report in February next year.]

  31. [If you have been able to earn a top income, enabling $80k a year in income from super, then you would surely have other investments unless your sold focus as been super.]

    My apologies I must have misunderstood my $80k mark was if there were only a 15% discount on income tax for income flowing into super.

    If your super is earning about $80k it is probably time for the tax incentives into and in to start phasing out.

    I was also thinking, if you look at it as a wealth accumulation strategy, not only should housing policy be included (because the house to retire in is a key element) but at the front end of a career compulsory super should probably go straight into HECS before the nest egg starts building.

    It would be a bit nasty but perhaps the Government could even move HECS balances into super accounts.

  32. It is my understanding the 15% tax on superannuation proposal was for the first $75,000 to be tax free then 15% for every dollar over $75,000.
    So a person getting $80,000 a year would $750 in tax

  35. [But you get to slug the rich VERY hard]

    Martin (normal tax in, no tax when in) slugs low wealth high income earners VERY hard, the wealthy less so.

    So almost the opposite of what you seem to be suggesting, zero tax in but no tax breaks on what is there. This does have some merit.

  37. IN WA the TWU represents the private contractor workers employed in the WACSCS contract. Transport of prisoners and staffing most of the courts and court security.
    Like its predecessors the Serco contract is for 5 years. There have been around 3 changes of contractor, each change falling inside the 7 years for long service leave to come available. Every time the workers have “lost” this entitlement.
    The Liberal Gove refuses to enforce that the LSL entitlement be transferred so that the workers don’t lose out
    One of the excuses given is that the employer is not a bank and should not have to hold the money “somewhere” on behalf of the workers.

  38. [That’s what Stephen King and Rodney Maddock from Monash University argue in a paper prepared for the Committee for Economic Development of Australia. The administrative savings would be enormous. Employers would deduct tax from earnings channelled into superannuation in exactly the same way as they deduct tax from earnings channelled into bank accounts.
    Once in the super funds, the earnings wouldn’t be taxed at all. Because the funds would become very attractive, extra contributions would be outlawed or allowed only within tight limits.
    ]

    OK so this makes a bit more sense in the detail. Still it seems to be policy that starts in the ‘annual flows’ mindset, rather than the basic wealth accumulation mindset.

  41. I wouldn’t be surprised if the libs don’t go with a proposal similar to Martin’s. Their mates who already have their money in super will be safe, but those pre-retirement won’t do so well.
    The great advantage is that you can say to voters: you will not lose a cent of take-home pay.

  42. Morning all

    Re Turc and Mr Cesar Melham. He said that he will fight any charges that may be made against him and he has no intention of resigning

  43. The situation at Christmas Island is a disgrace. Yet we have Teflon Truffles who has no pressure on him about it whatsoever. A frickin joke

  44. [It would be a bit nasty but perhaps the Government could even move HECS balances into super accounts.]

    Either the HECS is not paid because the person does not earn the wage at which they start repaying which leave debt to the government or use their super to pay the debt off which would leave them being in the position of requiring a government pension. Either way it still costs the taxpayer.
    Don’t get me wrong, I’m a great believer in education being an investment that governments should spend on.
    I recall reading that Australia now has over 4 million with some type of University degree, that a huge percentage of the population and work force. Beasley’s smart nation comes to mind

  47. [Chinese companies bidding for the $9 billion NSW electricity transmission network will be prevented from having any staff in management positions, while directors will require a security clearance, as part of strict conditions placed on the sale.

    As final bids for TransGrid are due at the end of this month the Australian Financial Review has confirmed the imposition of tough national security requirements for foreign bidders.

    These include a majority of local directors for the privatised TransGrid, security checks for directors being nominated and restrictions on foreigners in management positions.

    A NSW government source familiar with the bidding process said “Australian oversight and management” would be required by the Foreign Investment Review Board.

    “It’s also logical security clearances would be required for such an asset,” said the person, who asked not to be named.

    The sale of TransGrid has been a politically sensitive topic in NSW given the interest from Chinese state-owned bidders and a general perception Beijing uses commercial enterprises to pursue its broader national security agenda.

    The Chinese government-owned State Grid is bidding as part of a consortium including Macquarie Infrastructure Group and investment company Real Assets.

    They are favoured to win the auction.]

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/energy/asio-to-screen-chinese-directors-in-nsw-power-sale-20151109-gkurx5#ixzz3r2GiyMCY

  49. [Chinese companies bidding for the $9 billion NSW electricity transmission network….]

    During the election didn’t the Liberals/right wing run on the fact that this would be sold for $20 billion?

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