Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

Newspoll provides yet another incremental improvement to the Coalition’s poll position.

The always reliable James J relates in comments that the latest Newspoll result is 53-47 in favour of the Coalition, up from 52-48 a fortnight ago. More to follow.

UPDATE: Primary votes are Coalition 46% (up one), Labor 34% (down one) and Greens 10% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings finally appear to be levelling off, with his approval down two to 56% and disapproval up one to 24%. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 27% and down one on disapproval to 57%, while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 61-18, which is little changed on the 63-17 result last time.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds the Coalition losing the point it gained on two-party preferred last week, putting its lead back at 52-48. Primary votes are Coalition 45% (steady), Labor 35% (up one) and Greens 10% (down one). The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull’s approval up nine points from his debut on approval to 56% and up three on disapproval to 20%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 27% and up five to 47%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister widens substantially, from 48-19 to 55-14. Also featured:

• Forty-three support mining and exporting of uranium with 30% opposed, while support and opposition for nuclear power plants in Australia are tied at 40%. However, only 31% support development of nuclear waste storage facilities, with 50% opposed.

• If it’s taken as a given that revenue needs to be raised, 27% favour increasing the GST, 26% favour increasing income taxes and 14% favour expanding the GST to cover food, health and education. If it’s taken as a given that the GST needs to be expanded, 54% favour increasing the rate from 10% to 15%, and 46% favour removing the exemptions.

• Seventy-seven per cent oppose changing the voting age, with only 14% agreeing it should be voluntary for sixteen and seventeen year olds, and 4% believing it should be compulsory for them.

• Sixty-three per cent approve of the decision to end the knights and dames awards.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,044 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Hmmm… there was a bit of chatter around that the GST talk might have blunted Turnbull’s charge, that the apogee had been reached and that the inevitable tide of…

    Not so, by the look of it.

  2. A guy in the audience just gave my Mum’s scenario: killed slowly by dehydration and starvation.

    Apparently it was for her own good.

  3. [IF Australia wants to improve productivity it must shift towards a greater dependence on indirect taxes like the GST and improve childcare.]

    OECD agree with me.

  4. [It says tax reform would strengthen the “framework for growth”.
    The OECD sees tackling tax breaks on superannuation and capital gains as important.
    It also believes increasing and broadening the GST and at the same time lowering distorting income and transaction taxes “would significantly improve the growth-friendliness of Australia’s tax system”.]

    It just gets better, it is almost exactly what I’ve been saying. Fancy that.

  5. Well, anyone who has any doubts at all that the religionists have the rest of us by the short and curlies need only look at our euthanasia laws.

  6. [Well, anyone who has any doubts at all that the religionists have the rest of us by the short and curlies need only look at our euthanasia laws.]

    Yeah there is a secret society, they have robes and everything and a secret extra couple of holy books and they rule the world.

  7. I mean we (hate it when I get the pronouns wrong) have robes and secret sacred texts and everything. It is like being in the CIA only better.

  8. I guess the voters are not too concerned, judging from this latest poll

    [#NoSuspiciousDeath retweeted
    John Wren
    5h5 hours ago
    John Wren ‏@JohnWren1950
    “No cuts to ABC, no changes to pensions & no changes to the #GST”

    & now “we’re not Americanising health” says @sussanley.

    #liar #auspol]

  9. [Diogenes
    Posted Monday, November 9, 2015 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes Law # 23

    The number of comments made per hour after a Newspoll is proportional to the cube of Labor PV/ Lib PV.
    Where is the peer reviewed paper?

  10. Comment on the lets ban TBA

    I say no, this is a political site and by extension is going to have people with different opinions, TBA views are not uncommon views within the wider community, if anything I would have a bigger problem if TBA just made comments and never engaged, at least to his credit he does that.

    You may not like his views but b hearing alternative views helps to confirm if you are right or wrong to begin with.


    reminds me of a story former secretary of state schultz told after the first Bush (dubya’s dad) presidency. when the Iraq Contra arms deals came to light, Bush answered questions by saying ‘It is inconceivable that we would sell arms to the Iran government’. afterwards schultz said ‘but you know we did’. to which Bush replied ‘I know. but it is inconceivable that we did.’

    I reckon Mal’s use of the word is similar.

  12. [The blatantly partisan NATSEM lobbyin]

    Yeah you wouldn’t want like actual facts to inflitrate a debate, facts have a well know left bias. Hilariously stupid.

  13. [Yeah there is a secret society, they have robes and everything and a secret extra couple of holy books and they rule the world.]

    So, who leaked all this stuff from the Vatican? The Pope’s butler?

  14. [So, who leaked all this stuff from the Vatican? The Pope’s butler?]

    No the whole catholic church is misdirection / potential fallguy, tricks people all the time.

  15. @2460 (from last thread about the quality of ABC programing)

    Another way of looking at it.

    By spending a little money on cheap shows they can spend more money on the shows that matter.

    Cut the cheap show and you would have to replace it with a more expensive show.

  16. Boerwar@6

    I am really sorry to hear that this is how your mum was treated. I hope we can do much better for dying people in the future.

  17. The voters are still entranced by turnbull. It is like watching your friend hook up with a scoundrel, who has left a trail of broken women in his wake. You wish she would listen but until the scales fall off her eyes, you have no chance.

  18. I should add that I have also seen this happen to elderly relatives. How cruel can a system be to watch someone die of dehydration!

  19. Puffy

    Yeah, you could put it that way, although if Morrison keeps u his double speak and Turnbull doesn’t start to give a bit of action, it wont be long before people start to yawn.

    One thing which is helping Turnbull is that he dresses and acts like a PM, something Tone just never could do. I still feel that by day 100 we will have a pretty firm idea of this government’s potential.

  20. Puff

    Love it

    And no matter how hard you try to convince the besotted one, they just say “yes, I know. But it will be different this time.”

    And it hardly ever is.

  21. If these results continue for the next few weeks, we will have a Double Dissolution. The simple math is that in a half senate there are 6 candidates elected so you need more than 1/7th of the vote to get in (about 14%). The minors teal a few percent from each of the big three so this normally goes 2 to each of the majors + a Green that gets 10% of the vote and makes it on preferences and a minor who swapped preferences. A DD is required to bring the houses back into sync but more importantly what happens is you need to get more than 1/13th (say 8%) of the vote to get a place.

    Coalition gets 38%, Labor gets 30%, Greens get 10% Minors get 22%. Immediately elected are 4 Coalition 3 Labor and 1 green (with 6 year terms going to 1/1/1 on first pass, 1/1 on second and Coalition on third pass with more votes). After allocating full votes you have 4 coalition elected + candidate with 6%, 3 Labor + candidate with 6% and 1 Green with a candidate with 2%.

    The 4 remaining places go 1 Coalition, 1 Labor, 1 Outdoor/shooter/driver/personality party, 1 Christian/family values. So in most states [aside from Tassie which has an extra Green and SA which ends with 3 Xenephon].

    You change from a situation where elected are 2/2/1/1 at each election producing a senate 4/4/2/1/1 you get to 5/4/1/1/1 , halving the Greens and increasing those who may wish to negotiate.

  22. [If these results continue for the next few weeks, we will have a Double Dissolution.]

    Not this year we won’t. It’s not possible to have one before the December school holidays. I think the odds are for an April DD, after the redistributions are completed and before the impossible budget. But Turnbull’s ego might be such that he thinks he can wait out the full term. Either way, his eyes will be on the prize of Government, more than the Senate numbers.

  23. [ after the redistributions are completed and before the impossible budget. ]

    Damn but i would love to write some of the campaign material for that. Malcolm as Snake Oil salesman fronting a “trust us i am not Abbott but we want a vote before we reintroduce the 2014 budget with extra knobs on” campaign. 🙂

    I think that they will HAVE to do a Budget in May of some sort. Anything else and they are campaigning on Malcolm’s empty suit.

  24. mexicanbeemer

    [ I think Abbott would have tried to go before the budget but Turnbull less likely.]

    Yes in that from the start so many of Abbott’s nasties were not scheduled to hit until late 2016/17. But I wonder how many of the Abbott time bombs are still ticking and so make a pre budget election attractive to Truffles.

  25. For all those who dis Q&A watch the latest episode on euthanasia. Most excellent television. Very much helped by the topic being so serious the host tucked his ego in his old kit bag. Great questions from the audience .

  26. 36

    The Greens are likely to get 2 Senators in a DD in Victoria as they got 10.85% last time and are likely to go back up with the new leader and not having been in support of an unpopular government for the last 3 years.

    The order of election basis of deciding Senators term length is unlikely to be used again. Since 1984 the electoral act has provision for the AEC to recount the Senate votes at a DD to determine which of the elected Senators would have won at a half-Senate election. It has been stated several times that this will be used after future DDs.

    The old system is also only fair when the parties are all about the same size because if there is a smaller party or group with enough vote for 2 Senators at a DD, they would both be elected to long term Senate places with that minor party then probably able to win an additional Senate seat at the next half-Senate election. The Greens would be a potential beneficiary of this. Senator Xenophon`s party would be another/the other potential beneficiary of this.

  27. [ Very much helped by the topic being so serious the host tucked his ego in his old kit bag. ]

    absolutely. The less heard from the host and more from a generally serious and smart panel the better.

  28. If there is a DD then the terms of the new Senators will be set to commence on 1 July 2014. This would mean at least a half-Senate election would have to be held in mid-2017, or about a year after a DD. This is likely to reduce the chances of a DD from being called.

    Just the same, if Turnbott thinks he can run and win he will be very tempted to try.

  29. Of course, if there is a DD in April 2016 there will likely be another half-Senate and House election in early 2017 too, meaning we would have had three elections in about 4 years.

    Turnbott may figure that such short terms would mean there is only ever campaigning and never any governing, that he may not get the chance to implement his policies.

    The proposition that he will call an April election because he cannot frame a pre-election budget in 2016 is also a doubtful one. If this is a problem in 2016, it will be an even bigger one in 2017.

    All the mechanics of the cycles suggest he should try to get through til October next year, run then, expect to win, and have a whole three years to implement his agenda.


    [Pressure mounted on University of Missouri President Tim Wolfe to resign and the board of curators was set to meet Monday as the university’s black football players refused to practice or play until Wolfe is ousted amid heightened racial tensions.

    The football team suspended practice on Saturday and Sunday and black players have vowed not to return until Wolfe is fired or resigns, citing his poor handling of concerns over racism on campus.

    In addition to the football team’s action, one student has held a week-long hunger strike.]

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