Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

Roy Morgan maintains its recent form in recording an unusually strong lead for the Coalition.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan is essentially unchanged on the extremely strong showing for the Coalition last time, their primary vote up half a point to 47% with Labor up one to 28.5% and the Greens down one to 14.5%. The Coalition’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is up from 56-44 to 56.5-43.5, while on previous election preferences it’s unchanged at 55-45. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 3262.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research ticks another point to the Coalition on two-party preferred, putting its lead at 53-47, but it’s not based on much action on the primary vote, which has the Coalition steady at 45%, Labor down one to 34% and the Greens steady at 10%.

The poll also finds Scott Morrison on 27% as most trusted to handle the economy, Chris Bowen on 18% and “don’t know” well in front on 56%. Forty-seven per cent supported a ban on new coal mines, with 25% opposed, and 49% opted for “act now, without delay” over four lower-order options. On the economy, 37% think it’s been a good year for company profits versus 18% for a bad year, whereas every other economic and personal finance indicator is well into the negative.

Further questions find 54% approving of the current superannuation system as described, with 24% disapproving, and 64% favouring ”superannuation should be compulsory” over 29% for the alternative of “workers should be able to do whatever they want with their income”. Forty-four per cent supported proposed changes to superannuation taxes, with 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,349 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  1. ruawake@1247

    When does increasing branch membership become branch stacking? The first is desirable the second is not.

    Where does the line get drawn?

    Ahhh, the Conroy defence. 😀

    “I recruit, you stack.”

    Some key features of branch stacking are:

    – new ‘recruits’ may not even know they have joined the ALP.
    – They never attend a meeting, even though fraudulent records may say they have.
    – They do not pay their own membership.

    If people can recruit lots of genuine members, then good luck to them. The more the better.

  2. Sorry I was wrong Australia Post Visa Prepaid Gift Cards can be purchased for cash, they are the only one.

    Good way to launder cash, that is why I thought it was not possible.

  3. ruawake@1252

    Sorry I was wrong Australia Post Visa Prepaid Gift Cards can be purchased for cash, they are the only one.

    Good way to launder cash, that is why I thought it was not possible.

    Good work ru.

    I recall Australia Post being mentioned so that is probably the mechanism used.

    No need to launder cash that way, our former Premier Kennett allowed the construction of the Southern Hemispheres largest money laundering facility.

    Other states have followed.

  4. The last great stack in my area was Mal Brough’s in Fisher. Hundreds of new members were recruited, funny how many only stayed in the party for 12 months.

  6. [The last great stack in my area was Mal Brough’s in Fisher. Hundreds of new members were recruited, funny how many only stayed in the party for 12 months.]

    Might just have been they have stupid rules like us and it was just too hard.

    Also having attendance at branch meetings as a requirement when the branch meeting (other than the AGM) is totally unimportant and largely meaningless is ridiculous.

    I swear Labor doesn’t really like members.

  10. WeWantPaul@1256

    The last great stack in my area was Mal Brough’s in Fisher. Hundreds of new members were recruited, funny how many only stayed in the party for 12 months.


    Might just have been they have stupid rules like us and it was just too hard.

    Also having attendance at branch meetings as a requirement when the branch meeting (other than the AGM) is totally unimportant and largely meaningless is ridiculous.

    I swear Labor doesn’t really like members.

    More correctly, “some elements in Labor don’t like members who they can’t easily control”.

  12. K17

    [ I thought Malcolm Turnbull and Peter King competed in the stacking olympics a few years ago. ]

    History is written by the winner.

  13. Player One@1262

    K17

    I thought Malcolm Turnbull and Peter King competed in the stacking olympics a few years ago.


    History is written by the winner.

    IIRC, King won an earlier bout of branch stacking to get the seat.

  14. While I suspect they are doing it for good reasons how can the National Labor Executive possibly suggest out loud that two candidates who wont even sign the candidates pledge be accepted as candidates. Surely they must rule the pledge be changed or that the candidates sign it. Absurd.

    I’m torn I really like Alannah and loath Gray but it makes a laughing stock of Labor in the same way the stupid credit card thing does.

  16. [Malcolm Turnbull’s task of convincing wary state governments and Senate crossbenchers to back a GST increase has been made more difficult by new research showing it would have a severe impact on the least well-off but leave wealthier households unscathed.
    Lifting the GST to 15 per cent would hit low-income households hard but its negative effects would go almost unnoticed by those at the top end of society, new modelling of the proposed changes has revealed.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gst-hike-to-hit-poor-hard-and-leave-rich-unscathed-research-shows-20151104-gkqkyg.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn%3Atwi-13omn1677-edtrl-other%3Annn-17%2F02%2F2014-edtrs_socialshare-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o%26sa%3DD%26usg%3DALhdy28zsr6qiq#ixzz3qWA32BkQ
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  17. Hi Puff,

    I am checking in late, but I am very sorry to hear the news about your dog. Losing our animals is really hard, and my thoughts are with you.

  19. WWP

    [There are many more. What is the other ‘wrong’ is it not wanting the immediate execution of all people of faith?]

    Bemused

    [Never seen anyone advocate that.]

    No. They should be given a chance to recant.

  20. Listening to ABC radio this afternoon, it is plain that they have decided that a rise in the GST is now both desirable and inevitable……

    It’s been obvious that the ABC is infested with idiot neoliberal jurnos.
    Except their older economics correspondents.. they’ve seen it all before & are informative .
    But management prefers to go with talking heads like Sales

  21. Jolyon Wagg@1269

    WWP

    There are many more. What is the other ‘wrong’ is it not wanting the immediate execution of all people of faith?


    Bemused

    Never seen anyone advocate that.


    No. They should be given a chance to recant.

    You are a hard man. 😀

  24. David Crowe ‏@CroweDM 3m3 minutes ago

    So a #GST hike by definition increases tax % GDP and spending % GDP. Welfare payments have to rise.

  26. From today’s Crikey:

    [Freedom Commissioner Tim Wilson is holding a round table on freedom of religion tomorrow, which will include representatives of all the major faiths in Australia — except for Islam, which will be represented by a specific body within that religion. Speakers for indigenous spiritual and religious traditions are also absent. And the Church of Scientology will be sending a representative.

    The round table will feature representatives of the Anglican church, the Catholic archdiocese of Sydney, two rabbi peak bodies, Seventh Day Adventists, Mormons, Buddhists, Sikhs, the Atheist society and the aforementioned Scientologists — but only the Australian Muslim Women’s Association.]

    This is the kind of thing Tim Wilson used to rail against when he was with the IPA.

  29. [GST hike to hit poor hard and leave rich unscathed, research shows.]

    What compensation and other changes did this report take into account?

  31. 5% rise in the GST = 5 Carbon taxes. Why isn’t the media having hysterics? A python squeeze, the greatest injustice since the Crucifixion, it will wipe five medium-sized towns off the map, not just Whyalla. Could it be because corporations don’t pay it? That it has little effect on wealthy individuals?

  33. [‘All cops are bastards’ by our very own gun toote’n friend:

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/nov/04/david-leyonhjelms-all-cops-are-bastards-comments-appalling-police?CMP=soc_567 ]

    I see that Scott Weber, the head of the NSW Police Association, wants to see the Senate abolished, on the grounds that David Leyonhjelm does not respect his members’ authorit-ah:

    [“If senator David Leyonhjelm is representative of the thinking of a majority of senators then maybe it’s time to rethink if the people of Australia need a Senate at all,” he said.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/nov/04/david-leyonhjelms-all-cops-are-bastards-comments-appalling-police?CMP=soc_567

  34. Steve777@1281

    5% rise in the GST = 5 Carbon taxes. Why isn’t the media having hysterics? A python squeeze, the greatest injustice since the Crucifixion, it will wipe five medium-sized towns off the map, not just Whyalla. Could it be because corporations don’t pay it? That it has little effect on wealthy individuals?

    Better framed as a 50% increase in GST if you want to generate opposition.

    5% doesn’t sound like much.

  35. Good to see the ALP committed to the democratic process for candidate selection in WA with Gray, McTiernan and Keogh being democratically preselected by the National Office.

  36. Bemused – agree, although I think the 5 Carbon taxes line should also be given a run.

    P.S. Apologies for the double post. My first attempt seemed to disappear, so I posted again…

    P.P.S. Just had a look at the Daily Telecrap. There is no reference to the GST. The character string ‘GST’ does not appear on the landing page. Maybe they are hoping their readers won’t notice that it’s being discussed.

  38. [Good to see the ALP committed to the democratic process for candidate selection in WA with Gray, McTiernan and Keogh being democratically preselected by the National Office.]

    Wot. Like Scott Morrison?

  40. [Good to see the ALP committed to the democratic process for candidate selection in WA with Gray, McTiernan and Keogh being democratically preselected by the National Office.]

    Dennis Jensen would be long forgotten by now if the will of local preselectors in his seat hadn’t been over-ridden. Three times IIRC.

  44. [Ru @1288 Nice diversion – the LNP doesn’t spruik itself for member elected leaders and being oh so democratic.]

    LoL – yeah I killed him Guv but I never said I aint a murderer

    Very well lad off ya go

  47. The LNP can do no wrong, its only the commie socialist ALP union thug party that do the wrong things, even if the LNP do exactly the same. Bizarro world Cransky lives in.

  48. [The LNP can do no wrong, its only the commie socialist ALP union thug party that do the wrong things, even if the LNP do exactly the same.]

    It’s called double standards. We see it all the time from conservatives.

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