Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

Roy Morgan maintains its recent form in recording an unusually strong lead for the Coalition.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan is essentially unchanged on the extremely strong showing for the Coalition last time, their primary vote up half a point to 47% with Labor up one to 28.5% and the Greens down one to 14.5%. The Coalition’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is up from 56-44 to 56.5-43.5, while on previous election preferences it’s unchanged at 55-45. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 3262.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research ticks another point to the Coalition on two-party preferred, putting its lead at 53-47, but it’s not based on much action on the primary vote, which has the Coalition steady at 45%, Labor down one to 34% and the Greens steady at 10%.

The poll also finds Scott Morrison on 27% as most trusted to handle the economy, Chris Bowen on 18% and “don’t know” well in front on 56%. Forty-seven per cent supported a ban on new coal mines, with 25% opposed, and 49% opted for “act now, without delay” over four lower-order options. On the economy, 37% think it’s been a good year for company profits versus 18% for a bad year, whereas every other economic and personal finance indicator is well into the negative.

Further questions find 54% approving of the current superannuation system as described, with 24% disapproving, and 64% favouring ”superannuation should be compulsory” over 29% for the alternative of “workers should be able to do whatever they want with their income”. Forty-four per cent supported proposed changes to superannuation taxes, with 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,349 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  1. @50: And there’s still questions surrounding his spectacular lack of qualifications to take up such a role in the first place.

  2. [I guess you could say the idea first came to me back in my uni days. We were lucky enough back then to hear from the late Aboriginal activist, actor, author and elder, Burnum Burnum who was our guest lecturer. Burnum was born a Woiworrung and Yorta Yorta man at Wallaga Lake in southern New South Wales.

    Burnum corrected a young non-Aboriginal student when she said she was born in Grafton, NSW. He politely informed this young student that she was from the Bundjalung nation and that she should get to know her country, her people, their history and their culture.

    I was blown away. There is something in what he said that warranted more thought.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/02/what-if-aboriginal-people-helped-all-australians-to-connect-to-country

  3. @54: I never mentioned anything about it. If you want to attribute statements to me so that you have something to agree with, that’s your prerogative.

  4. Cer White – if you’re ignorant and stupid, it’s not my fault. Turnbull is absolutely notorious for his nastiness.

  5. We have fiber to the home converted to fibre to a node.
    We have delivery converted to non delivery.
    We have cost overruns.
    We have billions spent on buying a copper cables; the stuff that should go.

    However you look at it Turnbull has stuff it up.

  6. All one has to do to the States is ask them publicly if they are going to reject the increased GST revenue.

    None of them will reject it.

    End of story.

  7. CC: Christ, you’re stupid. Each state will have a power of VETO. They will extract huge concessions before they allow a GST to be implemented. They will have the government over a barrel. They will blow the Federal Government’s costings out of the water.
    End of story.

  8. @frednk: It was a stuff up in the first place. Labor were going to spend close to 100 billion dollars on technology so far into the future, demand wouldn’t have justified such expenditure for another decade. An e-penis competition to say we’re ahead of countries whose infrastructure are more suited to such a rollout. Ludicrous.

  9. @Cer White/46

    Quigley was right, Turnbulls questioning him was incorrect and wrong.

    Considering the NBN Ceo is also in the firing lane over his previous role in safety.

    @Cer White/47

    @Cranky/50

    Current Management is getting paid to do nothing and rolling out a substandard infrastructure that we should have received when the liberals last time were in power.

    Instead getting attacked for telling the truth about Fraudband.

  10. 22

    It is likely that not all states would be majority voting for the Coalition, even if it won with a majority of votes nationally. In 2013 both Victoria and Tasmania majority voted for the ALP on 2PP.

    The last time there was a clean sweep of the states voting the same way was 1977, when Gough was still ALP leader. Before that there was the 1975 defeat of the ALP. Before then we have to go back to 1958 to see all the states voting the same way.

    http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/Australian_Electoral_History/House_of_Representative_1949_Present.htm

  11. Sometimes it seems that PB is composed of 30% concern trolls,
    30% RWNJs, 30% useful idiots and 10% with something interesting to say.

    Today is such a time…

  12. @K-O-S: Not so, because Turnbull won’t be arguing for a GST increase, he’ll be arguing for a package which includes tax cuts, and a generous hunk of money to fix hospitals. So Palas in QLD won’t have to explain to the community why she opposes health cuts, she’ll have to explain to the public why she’s refusing the extra tens of billions of dollars to improve the ailing health system. It’s not Turnbull who’ll be over the barrel, I’m afraid.

  13. @Zoid: The questioning of Quigley was 100% justified.

    Are you saying that Labor was competent when they had monumental delays, and cost blow outs, and Liberals are comparatively incompetent? Like I said before, you’ll be hard pressed prosecuting that argument.

  14. To question Mike Quigley, is to question the current NBN Ceo who has less of a qualification who has poor telecommunications experience with Vodaphone (which is still very shit network), and his previous roll before that.

    Bill Morrow previous roll was at Pacific Gas and Electric Company

    The latest on that issue is here:
    http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/State-considers-safety-audit-of-PG-E-6449751.php

    And we have to trust him with safety on Fraudband Network?

  15. [All one has to do to the States is ask them publicly if they are going to reject the increased GST revenue.

    None of them will reject it.

    End of story.]

    Okay, we’ve done the Premiers.

    Next, what do you propose to do to the voters?

  16. fred @58

    No installed FTTP was converted to FTTN.
    Delivery can’t be converted.
    The cost overruns were because the ALP/Quigely NBN screwed the pooch on estimates and contracting from the get go.
    With only about 30 out of over a million subscribers using the top rated plans it is clear the FTTP Rolls Royce is not in demand and that the FTTN Mitsubishi is just fine. Given the long life of copper and continual technological advances in wire and wireless transmission this is likely a cost-effective investment for the nation.

    Thank goodness for Turnbull and the new NBN Management for doing a great job.

  17. @Cer White/71

    No he wasn’t justified, considering that the current management cannot even answer the basic questions that Mike Quigley were subjected too.

  18. @William: Sorry.

    ABC – What a joke of an organisation. The head should go, his son also, the journalists and cameramen should swap positions, the janitors promoted to positions of real power. Or get me in there, I can ensure unbiased news reports for the masses.

    ‘Shorten cocks up again – Turnbull a shoe in at next election!’

  19. @Cranky/75

    The cost overruns were done by the Coalition Party, even prior to winning the election, by throwing up large amount of numbers.

    Bunch of fools really we have here.

  20. [ Compact Crank

    Posted Monday, November 2, 2015 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

    All one has to do to the States is ask them publicly if they are going to reject the increased GST revenue.

    None of them will reject it.

    End of story.

    ]

    This is a “keeper” for me – just like Dave’s keepers on TBA/Truthie/Tisme bullshit posts – THIS will come back to haunt CRANKY for all time – just like his Duntroon ones …….

    Why am I so cranky all the time?
    http://www.kidspot.com.au/cranky-time/

  21. ag0044

    [That’ll leave a nasty hole in Foxtel’s sports coverage.]

    They should fill the gap, in part, with reruns of:

    (a) the Hockeyroos winning gold in 1992 and 2000;
    (b) Samantha Stosur flogging Williams in the 2012 US Open final;
    (c) Super Impose winning the Cox plate in 1992;
    (d) the Wallabies beating the All Blacks at any time and, when that runs out, any half decent play by the Wallabies against the All Blacks.

  22. [Meanwhile, the English Premier League (soccer/football) will be leaving Foxtel and going to Optus]

    That is probably very good news, but I do wish it was going to the ABC.

  23. One of the elements in the mix will be wholesale transfers of responsibilities from the commonwealth to the states. this pattern was a right wing meme before the last election. this will enable the feds to dismantle health and ed depts. The rwnj trick is that the funding does not quite follow the responsibilities. This was one of the tricks that killed Newman.

  24. adrian

    [ That is probably very good news, but I do wish it was going to the ABC. ]

    What? And go head-to-head with reruns of Antiques Roadshow???

  25. mimhoff 277 – When the voters have a package of tax cuts for those who pay taxes and increased payments for those on welfare of any sort plus the proposed increased funding to the states for health, NDIS and education for the trade-off of increased GST (either base or rate) VERSUS the ALP proposal of ????? more taxes ???? – all being sold by the urbane Turnbull, matter-of-fact Morrison and elegantly inscrutable Bishop VERSUS Eye bulging Stilted Shorten, slurry slugger Albo and Bumbling Bowen – with a nice poll buffer leading in knowing campaigns usually do little to the end result – done deal.

  26. [“all being sold by the urbane Turnbull, matter-of-fact Morrison and elegantly inscrutable Bishop VERSUS Eye bulging Stilted Shorten, slurry slugger Albo and Bumbling Bowen – with a nice poll buffer leading in knowing campaigns usually do little to the end result – done deal.”]

    Don’t forget Socialist Tanya

  27. @Cranky/88

    How can you pay for policies if you have tax cuts? seriously, money doesn’t grow on trees, and yet you lot want both tax cuts and keep policies?

  28. Ok, so he is going to come up with a package where nobody loses at all.

    Don’t know why you’re all so worked up about it then. If it’s as great as you say it will be then why even bother arguing?

  29. Adrian 67

    Just beat a huge storm home,thought would look on PB had to check to make sure I was on right blog,think your percentages seem to be pretty right!

    Will have a look back again when and if the real PB comes back bye

  30. [What? And go head-to-head with reruns of Antiques Roadshow???]

    It could alternate with reruns of AR and QI which tragically seems to be having a bit of a break.
    And I for one can’t get enough of The Beautiful Lie.

  31. ag0044
    Posted Monday, November 2, 2015 at 5:12 pm | PERMALINK
    Meanwhile, the English Premier League (soccer/football) will be leaving Foxtel and going to Optus:

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/nov/02/foxtel-loses-english-premier-league-broadcast-rights-in-australia-to-optus

    That’ll leave a nasty hole in Foxtel’s sports coverage.

    Very interesting move from Optus.

    Sports broadcasting is currently undergoing a revolution. Intriguing to see how Foxtel adjusts their business model going forward.

  32. mimhoff,

    It’s the Abbott magic pudding all over again. But there was progress today. Sinodinos has forced out one of Turnbull’s trump cards. It will be fun watching Flint on the evening news, he always gives me a laugh.

  33. [Just beat a huge storm home,thought would look on PB had to check to make sure I was on right blog,think your percentages seem to be pretty right!]

    Glad you beat the storm home. Seems quite calm at the moment in Sydney.

  34. Terrible poll for the ALP and Bill Shorten.

    It’s going to take a sizeable scandal to jolt voters into copping a Shorten led Govt.

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