The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan is essentially unchanged on the extremely strong showing for the Coalition last time, their primary vote up half a point to 47% with Labor up one to 28.5% and the Greens down one to 14.5%. The Coalition’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is up from 56-44 to 56.5-43.5, while on previous election preferences it’s unchanged at 55-45. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 3262.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research ticks another point to the Coalition on two-party preferred, putting its lead at 53-47, but it’s not based on much action on the primary vote, which has the Coalition steady at 45%, Labor down one to 34% and the Greens steady at 10%.
The poll also finds Scott Morrison on 27% as most trusted to handle the economy, Chris Bowen on 18% and “don’t know” well in front on 56%. Forty-seven per cent supported a ban on new coal mines, with 25% opposed, and 49% opted for “act now, without delay” over four lower-order options. On the economy, 37% think it’s been a good year for company profits versus 18% for a bad year, whereas every other economic and personal finance indicator is well into the negative.
Further questions find 54% approving of the current superannuation system as described, with 24% disapproving, and 64% favouring ”superannuation should be compulsory” over 29% for the alternative of “workers should be able to do whatever they want with their income”. Forty-four per cent supported proposed changes to superannuation taxes, with 32% opposed.
Question.. Yeah, yeah.. they are doing the usual: let the idea percolate a bit, float about for a bit, see how the reaction is then come with a policy later on. Usual thing.
Sure… but then why not stick with the “Everything is on the table” slogan?
Looks like a lot of off-message stumbling about so far.
Good to see ‘never deviate from mah script’ Shorten continuing to make inroads…
What were Paul Keating’s words? If he’s not scripted, he’s useless.
We will reach Peak Turnbull soon, because there are no policy differences, and the leaders of each party just attack each other.
@Question: There weren’t any stumbles regards their message on taxation reform, you’re desperation is inventing them.
Makes you wonder exactly who Morgan is polling, doesn’t it? The coalition back bench, perhaps?
CW
[@Question: You’re not seriously complaining about a policy vacuum in the area of massive taxation overhaul a couple of months into Turnbull’s Prime Ministership, are you?]
I have no idea what Turnbull’s plans are. The GST stuff seems to be a suggestion from Sinodinus (to fill the policy vacuum) that Turnbull is not very keen on.
Quigley told to shut up:
https://delimiter.com.au/2015/11/02/go-back-to-retirement-nbn-chief-pr-tells-quigley/
[@Question: There weren’t any stumbles regards their message on taxation reform, you’re desperation is inventing them.]
Why not save the “Knights and Dames” then? Could have been announced any time. I’m sure Turnbull will be happier to have that in the evening news than Morrison hosing down the GST.
Clearly all this GST talk has been bad for the ….
PO @ % – Yeah! Because 3262 is such a small sample!
When the polls told a very consistent story against Abbott and in support of a likely 2016 Shorten victory, everyone here loved the polls. Couldn’t get enough of ’em.
The polls are bang on the money! Who can deny the reality of the polls! You pro-Abbott denialists need to read the numbers and weep!
I’m afraid the boot is on the other foot now. The polls are relentlessly saying the same thing (well beyond the sort of honeymoon period recent coup leaders have enjoyed): that Shorten is going to get clobbered at the next election.
Another BS poll from Morgan.
Stand by for another panic attach from Lorax.
@Question: Turnbull was non-committal about a GST, not negative. He scrapped knights and Dames who wouldn’t take an opportunity to kick Abbott in the nads? Nobody would seriously think it a distraction considering the GST talk will go on for weeks/months, and knights/Dames is just something for the afternoon.
I think some of the Labor die-hards on here will be calling a future crash in Turnbull’s popularity and a Labor chance of winning all the way until crushing defeat at the next election.
Get used to less than 60 seats in parliament and an increase in the GST 😉
With a bit of luck they will keep it off fresh-fruit, healthcare and education.
Good to see the Green vote strong in polling but not sure it will hold close to that at the next election.
[I’m afraid the boot is on the other foot now. The polls are relentlessly saying the same thing (well beyond the sort of honeymoon period recent coup leaders have enjoyed): that Shorten is going to get clobbered at the next election.]
Give it another 2 years alias…
Shorten’s too scripted. People have had enough of that with Gillard and Abbott, they don’t want another. Seriously, it sounds like he’s reading everything he says. People tend to equate this with ‘fake’ (of course all politicians are fake, the trick is appearing natural while being fake.)
@7 Good. He screwed the Pooch and still won’t accept responsibility for the balls up.
Here’s a classic example of what a liberal stooge James Massola is.
His first paragraph:
[Labor states will wave through a rise in the GST if Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull secures a mandate for a tax reform package from voters and wins the next election, potentially clearing one of the biggest hurdles to tax reform.]
Then you read the fine detail and see that, in fact, the states won’t wave anything through. Rather, they’ll use their power of veto to get the best deal possible. Wow, what a revelation.
[But privately, key allies of the two Labor premiers confirmed to Fairfax Media on Monday the two state governments would respect Mr Turnbull’s mandate if he won the next election.
“If he takes it to an election and he wins, we will respect that mandate. Don’t expect Victoria to stop it,” one ally of Mr Andrews said.
Similarly, well-placed sources in the Palaszczuk government said the GST rise would not be fought if Mr Turnbull defeated Mr Shorten and that instead, “the best deal possible for Queensland” would be pursued.]
In other words, after an election (assuming the libs are returned) the states will have the Commonwealth over a barrel and will extract a huge pint of blood.
Zoilord – Yep, they viciously attack Mike Quigley (including Turnbull) and expect him to shut up and take it. What scum they are. I’m amazed at how quiet quigley has in fact been.
@Cranky/17
The current management fixed the numbers, so it is close to the claim of Joe Hockey’s $100 billion blowout.
The responsibility is those economy wreckers.
If the next election won’t be until September…
Kevin-One-Seven
Bare in mind whilst the Federal Government would have to face the States re: GST after the election the State Parliaments would have to face their electorates sometime too.
Unfairly obstructing federal policy that their constituents had voted for would not be popular and they will be aware of this.
@19: Good. He should shut up and take it.
lizzie
[ If the next election won’t be until September… ]
Indeed. If the Coalition believed these Morgan numbers, they would be falling over themselves to get to an election.
@Cer White/23
You and Cranky get along well, with approving personal attacks.
Rare engaging wit from Bob Ellis on the last occasion of a Morgan poll:
[Yesterday’s Morgan has Labor on 44, two party preferred, and there’s nothing in the methodology or in the sampling to suggest that figure is wrong.
If true it means 1.7 million people have gone from voting or preferring Labor to voting or preferring the Coalition since Turnbull took over the leadership. It means that 1.7 million people ‘swing’.
I invite respondents to suggest what the fuck we do now.]
Q @15
2 years? Election is due in about 12 months.
Can’t see them going earlier unless the polls really blow out and a Senate majority is in the offing and worth having a crack at.
CW
[@Question: Turnbull was non-committal about a GST, not negative. He scrapped knights and Dames who wouldn’t take an opportunity to kick Abbott in the nads? Nobody would seriously think it a distraction considering the GST talk will go on for weeks/months, and knights/Dames is just something for the afternoon.]
CW, as your post points out, there really is nothing to debate yet. I have no idea what Turnbull plans, and neither do you.
Yes, I am getting a little bored of the policy vacuum, but that is about the only thing that is certain right now. No-one has any idea what Turnbull’s tax policy is, or will be… or if there will be one at all.
Today Morrison hosed down the idea of expanding the GST, and Turnbull comments were similar… but that hasn’t stopped a slew of posters claiming that Turnbull will “do Shorten slowly on the GST”
Seems like precisely the opposite has occured. Listen to what Morrison and Turnbull have actually said, rather than some master plan, that at this point exists only in your imagination.
@LGH: That’s one of the reasons some political commentators have already floated Vic Premier’s seemingly fluctuating stance on the issue. The Premiers won’t be arguing against a GST increase, they’ll be arguing against an entire package that will offer some tantalising incentives to the community as well as including a GST increased. They’ll be arguing against more money for health and infrastructure at a time when States are bankrupt. This is a MUCH harder proposition.
PO @24 The Trend is the friend – not one off polls.
Kevin 1-7
Agree with you on Massola’s article.
It’s interesting that Cer White and Cranky approves of personally attacking former management.
While one figure for the Fraudband NBN is at $56B, and the other figure is less than $56B.
Lame, and Pathetic.
@Zoid: There weren’t any personal attacks by Turnbull on Quigley. I know the left like to make up strawmen, but this is going a little far.
@Zoid: If you’re seriously going to start quoting figures, after the mishandling of the NBN after Labor, you’re not going to produce a very credible argument.
Liberals solution to all problems, let imprison everyone:
Guardian Australia @GuardianAus 6m6 minutes ago
NSW prisons beyond breaking point after 14% surge in inmates, union says http://trib.al/9by88pc
@Zoid: You mean NSW, the State Labor were in power over for 14 years? Yes, I’m sure they made no contribution to the increases of prisoners in that time.
[The drought-declared community of Barcaldine, near Longreach in the central west, recorded more than 100mm of rain in the 24 hours to 9am on Sunday.
The dump has handed the town a new record for its wettest-ever November day.]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/nov/02/queensland-storms-bring-record-rainfall-to-drought-stricken-parts-of-state
How can Shorten ever hope to win against “a package”! What a clear winning message that is!
@Cer White/33
It’s called professional attitude, and the way PR Management is attacking Quigley for being right.
The fact they are not focused on the NBN shows little effort by them to manage a big project, and cannot handle the criticism by the opponents.
@Cer White/34
Figures of the NBN started to increase after the election, first it was to $29 billion after the election, and then exploded to $56 billion, that $29B figure was released in December, where people would be in Xmas holiday mode.
One thing for sure the polls have brought out the concern trolls.
@Cer White/36
Deflection, Mike Baird who has high popularity, Liberals have been in power for the last couple of years said the Crime rate was lowest in 25 years:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-24/mike-baird-on-nsw-crime-rates/6343472
shellbell
[ I invite respondents to suggest what the fuck we do now. ]
Just wait. Turnbull is making policy-type noises (e.g. on the GST) without actually making any real policy. Because he can’t. Once this sinks in things will return to normal.
All Malcolm has to do really, is make sure that none of his proposals, should he come up with some, result in anyone losing out at all.
[The Premiers won’t be arguing against a GST increase, they’ll be arguing against an entire package that will offer some tantalising incentives to the community as well as including a GST increased. ]
This is what is so good about Turnbull, everybody just knows what he is going to do. “Don’t bother with what he says, listen to what I think he is going to do (and it will all work brilliantly just like I imagine it will)”.
[In other words, after an election (assuming the libs are returned) the states will have the Commonwealth over a barrel and will extract a huge pint of blood.]
The States have no veto no barrel no power. A weak leader like Abbott looked to the States for political cover for the GST he wanted.
Turnbull may also look for political cover from the states, who knows. If either shorten or turnbull come out and are brave and say ‘if elected ill increase the GST to 15%.’ The states then have no leverage either before or after the election.
@Zoid: Quigley wasn’t right, and Turnbull was justified to question his stunning lack of credentials in the field and ask why he was appointed into such a position. A perfectly justifiable question.
The idea they’re not focused on the NBN is an assertion with nothing to back it up.
Estimates for Labor’s NBN was anything up to over 90 billion dollars after they too dramatically underestimated costs.
@Zoid: Actually it’s not a deflection. Increase in prisoners has to do with drug abusers, what was the policy of the Labor party? Oh right, imprisonment.
CER WHITE – Malcolm Turnbull has specialised, throughout his career, in vicious personal attacks on anyone who stands in his way. It’s his Standard M.O. You really don’t know much at all, do you.
@K-O-S: And yet the issue is his personal attacks on Quigley, and there is none. So it’ll be helpful if you read before you speak, k thnx.
zoidy @32
Quigley got super-well paid for his work – despite it being the mother of all fuck ups.
Now, if he wants to wear the big boy pants and play with the big boys and is going to dish it out, he’s going to have to be man enough to take it, too.