New results for the poll aggregate this week from Ipsos, Essential Research and Roy Morgan, with the Ipsos result being the pollster’s first since the leadership change. It’s this result that’s resposible for a solid 0.7% shift in favour of the Coalition, since the other two pollsters both produced results consistent with their established Turnbull era form. I’ve now changed the state-level calculations from a weighted average to a trend measure, the effect of which is to boost considerably the Coalition’s score in New South Wales while reducing it somewhat in Queensland and Western Australia. The Coalition is accordingly up two this week on its seat tally in New South Wales but down one each in Queensland and Western Australia, adding up to no net gain despite the improvement on voting intention. Ipsos provided new leadership ratings this week, giving Malcolm Turnbull a big boost on his already strong personal approval. Ipsos’s numbers for Bill Shorten were similar to what he’s been getting from other pollsters but well below his past form from Ipsos, and his net approval rating accordingly takes another hit.
Additionally:
• The Herald-Sun reports that Helen Kroger, who won a Victorian Senate seat in 2007 but lost it in 2013 after being demoted from second to third on the party ticket, will seek preselection for the lower house seat of Bruce in south-eastern Melbourne. The seat is to be vacated at the election by the retirement of Alan Griffin, who has held the seat since gaining it for Labor on the back of a favourable redistribution in 1996, but retained a margin of just 1.8% in 2013. However, Kroger is said to face a “bitter preselection battle” from the party’s candidate for the seat in 2013, Emanuele Cicchiello, a former Knox councillor and teacher at Lighthouse Christian College. Labor’s new candidate for the seat is Julian Hill, an executive with the Victorian government’s Department of Economic Development and former mayor of Port Phillip, who won preselection earlier this year uncontested.
• David Johnston of the Border Mail reports that two candidates will contest the Nationals preselection for the northern Victorian seat of Indi, which independent Cathy McGowan won from Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella in 2013: Wangaratta businessman Martin Corboy, and former Yackandandah publican Gregory Lawrence.
• The South Australian government has introduced a number of electoral and constitutional reform bills to parliament, the latter of which will require passage at a referendum to be held in conjunction at the next election. The electoral bill proposes an end to preferential voting for its Legislative Council, with the existing system to be replaced by the straightforward Sainte-Laguë closed list system for allocating seats in proportion to aggregate vote shares. The constitutional bills propose removing the Legislative Council’s power to block the regular annual supply bills, and introducing a double dissolution mechanism very like the one in operation federally.
[A piece of the plane found washed up on the French island of Reunion in July provided the first direct evidence that it had crashed into the sea. No further trace has been found]
Is that right? I don’t recall that bit of debris being definitely identified as part of MH70.
MTBW
[ He is bloody delusional! ]
Yes, Abbott is a deluded moron. But Credlin? If Abbott is going around saying stuff like this, it can only be because Credlin is feeding it to him. So you have to wonder why.
Is Credlin still employed? Or is she now an unguided missile?
Dave – wonderful diatribe from Pascoe.
If Gordon G would have to be nuts to appoint Joe to Washington. Watch his personal popularity plummet when he does that. GG is being held to a higher standard than other PMs (because he’s on probation). That is the sort of bullshit he doesn’t need.
But, as PK said, the problem with Malcolm is that he’s got no judgement.
lizzie:
No idea re Credlin. After the wash up of the leadership change I’d be surprised if any other minister would have her in their office.
[Yes but taxi drivers pay an awful amount of money for their licenses and could be fined these Uber blokes do nothing but make money.
]
Firstly, I hope that a taxi driver convicted of sexual assault gets a bit more than a fine.
Secondly, I think an Uber driver convicted of sexual assault would face some penalties.
Darn – pretty sure the French have confirmed it is part of the plane. As a consequence, it’s obvious that the Russians (who have the plane) put the wing in a submarine and dumped it off-shore.
TBA @105
[It makes the decision binding on the Plebiscite so nobody can complain it is a worthless waste of money…]
I think it is a worthless waste of money.
If fact how could anyone possibly argue that it isn’t a complete waste of money?
Even Coalition supporters of the move characterise this is as a clever strategic move to “wedge” their own party members into supporting a policy which the vast majory of Australians already support and which everyone acknlowedges is a matter of “when” not “if”.
Why should we have to spend nearly $200m of taxpayers money to address an internal policy fight within the Coaltion?
This article by Stephen Long is the VERY FIRST article I have seen that has actually questioned how the media are failing to do their job of going behind the headline screamers generated by the TURC:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-22/long-why-is-no-one-questioning-the-turc-narrative/6868102
I know others have already linked to it, but every PBer (indeed every Australian, but that’s too much hope) should read it.
Another example not quoted by Long was the 7.30 insinuation based on Stephen Sasse’s allegations that his notebooks regarding the negotiations over the East West Link went missing. This was at the end of the article on the ABC website on the 7.30 report:
[Lawyers for Mr Shorten have attempted to discredit Mr Sasse — who gave an address to a right-wing think tank last year about the extent of union influence on the industrial landscape.
But Mr Sasse maintains that is immaterial to his allegations in the royal commission.
When asked if he was “just trying to bring Mr Shorten down” Mr Sasse replied: “I have no interest in that whatsoever.”]
In other words Mr Sasse says, despite the fact he is on record as anti-union, he is an honest broker. And what does intrepid ABC journalist Louise Milligan do to press on that obviously self-serving claim? Absolutely nothing. Obviously she had burnt up all her intrepid investigative energy finding Mr Sasse:
[He has never spoken publicly outside the royal commission, but 7.30 tracked Mr Sasse down as he was about to board a plane.]
There was one last paragraph added to the report later:
[Editor’s note (21/10/15): This story has been amended to make clear that the allegation is that negotiations on a secret deal between John Holland and the AWU started while Bill Shorten was AWU National Secretary, not that the alleged deal was completed while he led the union.]
I wonder why they needed to make that clear???
Link at:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-20/missing-documents-relating-to-trade-union-royal-commission/6870756
Taxi drivers pay an awful lot of money to drive their taxis because they are basically the peons of the plate-holders, who have been holding all of us (particularly taxi drivers) to ransom for decades.
My understanding is that plates were originally transferable so that drivers could build up a retirement nest-egg. Now they are a vehicle for investment.
Well, if the plate owners are wiped out, too bad. That’s capitalism, baby. That’s what happens when you live off the labour of others.
I should add to my 159 my frustration with the ABC that they have a fine journalist like Stephen Long, stepping outside the groupthink of political journalists (he is an economic journalist), while they have someone like Louise Milligan who, on the evidence of the article I quoted, would have been an embarrassment to Today Tonight if she was on their staff in my opinion.
[Why should we have to spend nearly $200m of taxpayers money to address an internal policy fight within the Coaltion?]
I can think of a dozen questions that could be put to the public that would be more important to most people than marriage equality.
[Well, if the plate owners are wiped out, too bad. That’s capitalism, baby. That’s what happens when you live off the labour of others.]
That only applies to people who put their life work into their employment for a business, which then retrenches them. That’s capitalism baby. But rendering an investment worth less – that is outrageous.
One law for the better off; and one law for the worst off.
Darn @ 151
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-04/france-says-part-found-on-reunion-island-definitely-from-mh370/6748688
TPOF – Are you saying that the Government can’t alter it’s policies because that might affect someone’s investment? Surely not. They do that all the time. Plate-holders never had a contract with the Government. They took a punt. Some punts work, some don’t. Like I said, that’s capitalism.
Further, I suspect that very few plate-holders are still actually drivers.
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 3m3 minutes ago
Turc isn’t political at all – as the Royal Commission demands Victorian ALP hand over members details o_O
This will surprise you all:
James Packer is saying that all companies have a duty to pay tax and he pays tax on all of his investments.
Unlike his father Kerry who organised his books to pay very little.
He seems to not be a decent bloke.
“seems to be”
K17
[Are you saying that the Government can’t alter it’s policies because that might affect someone’s investment? ]
No. I was being sarcastic about the classic right of centre prescriptions of treating poorer people like crap but protecting those better off in comparable circumstances – the world changes around them and they get screwed.
MTBW
Was a time when taxi plates were the well earned reward for older drivers who saved for their retirement. Drove a few daytime shifts and rented out the taxi at night.
I think this era is long past and the taxi companies have a strangle hold on the plates. They employ OS drivers who work for a pittance. It is an industry that has probably passed its use by date.
TPOF
[ But rendering an investment worth less – that is outrageous. ]
The problem with the taxi industry is the limited number of taxi plates (and plate leases). Many plate holders regard the plates simply as an investment vehicle (pun intended) and don’t actually care much about the taxi service.
The reason Uber is popular is that the service provided by the taxi industry is generally quite poor, and also that there are simply insufficient taxis on the roads to service the need. I saw one estimate that Sydney alone needs twice the number of taxis on the road to service the current need. I presume this is true for other places as well.
The solution is obvious – double the number of taxi plates. But this solution is (of course) opposed by the industry itself.
If that doesn’t happen, Uber will continue to grow until the situation reaches equilibrium – i.e. when there are about as many Uber drivers on the road each day as there are taxis. The value of a taxi plate will slowly return to sensible values – allowing those who want to do so to exit the industry without incurring huge losses – and taxi plate owners will have to make their profit by offering a decent service rather than making a capital gain on the plates themselves.
So Uber is actually a good solution to a sticky problem.
DTT
I don’t know whether it has passed its use by date but all things should be fair.
Rob Oakeshott Retweeted
Climate Reality @ClimateReality 3h3 hours ago
Wow. September’s temperature was the largest departure from normal for ANY month on record http://bloom.bg/1W5UMSK
I would like to thank Joe Hockey personally for making the hard decisions to reign in Labors debt crisis.
Lets not forget… Wayne Swann was handed over by the Coalition Government a $10 Billion Dollar budget surplus, 4% unemployment and $35 Billion Dollars in the bank.
By the time Swanny had done his damage and handed over the budget to Hockey we were doing $30 Billion dollar a year deficits, we had $300 Billion Dollars in debt and unemployment was 5.8%
Hockey has been trying to fix the damage that Labor reaped on our country
@TBA/174
Debt has risen over $400 billion, TBA idiot.
TBA
Wayne Swan Worlds Best Treasurer saw off Joe Hockey Australia’s worst Treasurer not even passing one budget.
😆
[I would like to thank Joe Hockey personally for making the hard decisions to reign in Labors debt crisis.
Lets not forget… Wayne Swann was handed over by the Coalition Government a $10 Billion Dollar budget surplus, 4% unemployment and $35 Billion Dollars in the bank.
By the time Swanny had done his damage and handed over the budget to Hockey we were doing $30 Billion dollar a year deficits, we had $300 Billion Dollars in debt and unemployment was 5.8%
Hockey has been trying to fix the damage that Labor reaped on our country]
I could refute this line by line. But its quicker to just call you an arsehat and move on.
@delimiterau: Microsoft inks giant cloud, software deal with NSW Govt: https://t.co/qqp5WEgsPg
Thanks to K17 and TPOF regarding MH70.
I know that Hockey’s appointment to replace Kim Beazley has not been formally announced, but it seems that there is no doubt about it – nobody has denied it or even suggested the rumours were premature.
But I really wonder what Hockey’s qualification for the position is. By contrast, Kim Beazley brought with him a renowned deep knowledge and understanding about the USA, especially its history and political system, and a wealth of contacts at the highest levels across US politics.
Hockey may well have the right temperament for one of our two or three most important diplomatic appointments – I don’t think so, but that is a personal opinion – but so do a large number of very senior diplomats in DFAT.
I’m prepared to be convinced otherwise, but this seems a very poor appointment, intended to deal with one of Turnbull’s political problems, rather than an appointment of good judgement of a person of stature.
I would like to thank Joe Hockey personally for making the 2014 budget so patently over-reaching in its attempts to screw the poor that it failed miserably where a more nuanced and carefully designed budget may well have achieved the same goals with nobody realising how bad and unfair the policies were.
@mashable: Apple wants to clean up its supply chain using large solar power projects in China https://t.co/JhVZcePY59
TrueBlueAussie@174
He ‘reigned’ in the debt by increasing it by 47% in two years.
Wadda genius.
[ “@TheKouk: Joe Hockey became Treasurer:
Govt debt was $273b now $402b
Unemployment rate was 5.6% now 6.2%
Wages growth was 3.0% now 1.2% #auspol” ]
Bernie Sanders wants to turn post offices into banks. From the Daily Kos website:
In an interview with Felix Salmon after the Democratic debate, Bernie Sanders discussed, among other things, his ideas for setting up a system of postal banking:
“If you are a low-income person, it is, depending upon where you live, very difficult to find normal banking. Banks don’t want you. And what people are forced to do is go to payday lenders who charge outrageously high interest rates. You go to check-cashing places, which rip you off. And, yes, I think that the postal service, in fact, can play an important role in providing modest types of banking service to folks who need it.”
It’s something Sanders alluded to in a 2014 Wall Street Journal op-ed…
In fact, Sanders’s idea is quite sensible. “Postal banking”—which just means that post offices run savings accounts, cash checks, and perform other basic financial services—is common in most of Asia and Europe, and only about 7 percent of the world’s national postal systems don’t offer some bank-like services. Postal banking is a really good way to reach people who haven’t had access to standard savings accounts. One estimate figures that more than 1 billion people have used post offices for making deposits.
The reason why this would be so useful in the U.S. is that somewhere between 20 and 40 percent of the population has to rely on check-cashing or payday-lending services, which in some places charge usurious rates that send people into spirals of recurring debt.
How would postal banking work?
The basic idea of modern postal banking is a public bank offering a wide range of transaction services, including financial transactions, remittance, savings accounts, and small lending. These institutions would remain affordable because of economies of scale and because of the existing postal infrastructure in the U.S. Plus, in the absence of shareholders, they would not be driven to seek profits and could sell services at cost.
According to The Atlantic, there was a postal-savings system just like that in the US between 1910 and 1967.
Of course it’s almost impossible to imagine that such a system could successfully be revived today. It’s way too sensible, it would reinvigorate a government institution that the right wing is trying to destroy, and it doesn’t extract blood from the 99 percent for the benefit of the financial elites. So probably no can do.
No doubt already posted, Greg gives Hockey the head kicking he deserved.
[http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2015/oct/22/hockey-the-fantasy-economist-may-as-well-have-farewelled-middle-earth]
Wong and Albanese. Anyone from the religious power groups such as opus dei should not be selected.
[Govt debt was $273b now $402b]
LOL! The Tory definition of ‘reigning in spending’ is a curious one isn’t it.
Try ‘MASSIVE BLOWOUT IN SPENDING’.
Mmm, link again.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2015/oct/22/hockey-the-fantasy-economist-may-as-well-have-farewelled-middle-earth
@danielhurstbne: #TURC revokes order seeking 1000s of m’ship docs from Victorian ALP amid claim it was beyond terms of ref https://t.co/oIbAPqDkiP @murpharoo
TBA
Read Jericho’s article @188, it deals with facts.
“@political_alert: Shadow Attorney-General and Shadow Minister for Employment will hold a doorstop on the Trade Union Royal Commission, 1,30pm #turc #auspol”
Definitely, absolutely NOT a political witch hunt of the government’s opponents:
[Quick update from the trade union royal commission. TURC has withdrawn an order to the Victorian branch of the Labor party for thousands of membership documents, amid objections about whether the request fell within the inquiry’s terms of reference.
It is understood the notice to produce was issued to the state Labor branch yesterday afternoon, with a deadline of midday today. Sources said the commission sought membership and renewal forms for the period 1 April 2013 to 31 May 2013, covering the time of the year when annual renewals normally take place.
Noel Hutley SC, representing the Victorian Labor party, attended a commission hearing in Sydney on Thursday to object to the notice. When the proceedings resumed at midday, the counsel assisting the inquiry, Jeremy Stoljar SC, said he had been told that the notice to produce involved a “very large number of documents”.
Stoljar indicated the commission would withdraw the notice and consider issuing one in a narrower form. Hutley said the notice would have yielded “many thousands of documents” and questioned whether it was beyond the terms of reference for the royal commission.
After the brief interruption, the commission continued questioning Cesar Melhem, who was the Australian Workers’ Union Victorian state secretary from 2006 to 2013.]
[Darn
Posted Thursday, October 22, 2015 at 11:43 am | Permalink
A piece of the plane found washed up on the French island of Reunion in July provided the first direct evidence that it had crashed into the sea. No further trace has been found
Is that right? I don’t recall that bit of debris being definitely identified as part of MH70.]
The missing plane is MH370. According to the ATSB
[On 4 September 2015 French authorities confirmed that the flaperon found on La Réunion was from MH370. The finding of the debris on La Réunion is consistent with the current search area.]
BH @129
Shorten doesn’t support free speech? Who knew?
@drewsheldrick: Alan Joyce named as the world’s second most powerful LGBTI executive: https://t.co/cL4RFBZQJI https://t.co/o4ca4mWvj6
Kevin17
A neighbour of ours was left a Sydney taxi licence plate in his late father’s Will. A few years ago the plate was worth more than $250,000 and the yearly rental paid by the lessee of the plate was good income to our neighbour. Now the plate is almost worthless in comparison and the lessee is asking for the rental to be renegotiated to bedrock.
Uber has certainly stolen the Sydney taxi market.
MTBW
Owners of the plates pay lots of money.
Drivers often don’t own the plates.
I don’t know what it’s like in other states but WA has had a number of Taxi Drivers convicted of sexual assault in the last few years.
darn @151 – yes, it was confirmed as being from the missing aircraft.
[‘The Age of Entitlement’ speech was an absolute lowpoint in recent political discourse, accompanying the budget that wrecked the entire Abbott government before it got out of the blocks, and made its author look an absolute goose.]
Not to mention the moment he came back he described paring back the Baby bonus to I think $3000 (which is still too much) by the Gillard Government as being the same as China’s One Child Policy, which was naturally not for a second questioned by the media.
[Turc isn’t political at all – as the Royal Commission demands Victorian ALP hand over members details o_O]
Wow! That’s a bit rich. What have ordinary members’ details got to do with the TURC. Blatant abuse if the handing over is enforced.