Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

The only new federal poll for this week suggests the early undecided are breaking in the Turnbull government’s favour.

The only poll of Malcolm Turnbull’s second week is the regular two-week rolling average from Essential Research. Clearly this week’s sample produced a good result for the Coalition, as Essential published its “one week only” result last week to show a 50-50 debut for the Turnbull government, and adding this week’s result to that one has produced a Coalition lead of 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 44%, Labor is down two to 35%, and the Greens are steady on 11%. Further findings:

• Sixty-three per cent want the election held next year, whereas 21% think the government should go early.

• Forty-one per cent say Tony Abbott should resign from parliament (although it’s not specified if this means right now or at the end of the term), 25% would prefer that he stay on the back bench, and only 16% believe he should be given a ministry.

• Twenty-six per cent rate the state of the economy as good versus 32% for poor, and 34% think it heading in the right direction versus 39% for the wrong direction – both of which are much as they were when these questions were last posed in March.

• Since July 2013, respondents have become somewhat more likely to think people on high incomes would be better off under a Liberal government, and much more likely to think people who send their children to private school would. Conversely, small business, farmers, average working people, pensioners, single parents and the unemployed are now perceived as much better off under Labor. The rating for middle-income earners was 5% in favour of the Liberals two years ago, but is now 6% in favour of Labor.

Further on the polling front, The Australian has today published its first geographic and demographic breakdowns since the takeover of Newspoll by Galaxy, of purely historical interest though the results may be, given that they are compiled from the entire polling period between July and September.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

461 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Sorry, I didn’t mean to start a guessing game by pasting the Oz headlines. Day is the person (clicking on the headline takes you to a few extra words as a teaser but not through the paywall).

  2. bemused@43

    Raaraa@39

    bemused@32

    To be fair, I don’t think davidwh was being partisan here. He was just airing his view that there needs to be a balance to where government is involved in.

    And I responded in an entirely fair manner. How dare you suggest otherwise.

    Ah well, no offence intended.

  3. davidwh

    [It’s all about finding the right balance between allowing people to make decisions for themselves and at the same time ensuring government provides adequate social programmes.]

    That sounds about right, to me. It’s turning all social services (in the broadest sense) over to private profit-making corporations, as the RW seems to prefer, that leads to the slippery slope of inequality and the devil take the hindmost.

  4. Putin really rubbing the wests noses in the mess they’ve caused leaving a vacuum that ISIL happily filled.
    Obama showed strength in owning up to it however.

    Good to see them both working to a compromised solution hopefully.

  5. So Maurice Newman lost his position.

    [What the real story here is that finally an Abbott appointee got a taste of the ex-PM’s own medicine.

    It’s the dirty little secret of the past two years that the Prime Minister’s office personally oversaw every government appointment – not just within government, but through important government boards and down to the smallest statutory authorities. Widespread chaos and dysfunction ensued, not to mention outrage.

    It was pure vindictiveness and vengeance against anyone appointed by the previous Labor government, and it was in contrast to precedent and good governance.

    Worse still, they didn’t even have the guts to own up to the policy and denied it when they were outed by the few brave business leaders willing to speak out. (Former Australian of the Year Simon McKeon take a bow).

    Many many more complained bitterly in private.

    The policy caused a logistical and governance nightmare that ignored all best practices in board circles.

    In some cases boards were unable to meet for months on end, as they did not have a quorum. Some boards lost all their members and sat idle for months.

    Many of the dumped directors were renowned business and community names and strong Liberal supporters. It didn’t matter.]

    http://www.switzer.com.au/the-experts/janine-perrett/dont-shed-a-tear-for-the-dinosaurs/

  6. Lizie/davidwh

    I agree with your comments on the balance between public and private sector services. Like you I am opposed to privatisation of public services, however I would make one important distinction. I have no objection to private delivery of public services, but the prioritisation and resource allocation must remain in public hands.

    I have worked in both public and private sector and have no strong view on which dlivers better care. The problem is when the profit motive is used to decide who gets care. So if you have a government health authority employing private doctors to work in a public hospital, I see no problem. It is when you move to a US style HMO who decides who gets treatment that the poor miss out. In my own field, I do not care whether a public or privat sector organisation builds a road. I care a lot more about whether the public or private sector gets to decide which roads we build, who drives on them, and who pays for them. Those decisions must remain public.

  7. Raaraa I appreciate your comment and you were correct in your observation. Bemused and I have been locking horns for a while now and I never get offended by his challenges.

  8. Morrison the optimist:

    [SCOTT Morrison believes Australia’s economy is coping “incredibly well” against various international headwinds.

    THE treasurer was commenting after the Australian stock market tumbled nearly four per cent on Tuesday on concerns about a slowing Chinese economy, while the Australian dollar struck a six-and-a-half-year low.]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/economy-coping-with-headwinds-morrison/story-e6frfku9-1227549375118

  9. The Drum has a section with an astronomist on the ‘water’ on Mars, for those interested. (And the Buzzfeed guy seems to think he’s very attractive, too!)

  10. If only mines had been taxed, and not allowed to cream profit without consequences.

    [Queensland authorities fear a series of ponds containing heavy metals and cyanide could overflow from an abandoned mining site and spill into a nearby river in the Murray-Darling Basin.

    An internal government document obtained by the ABC warns that as little as 40 millimetres of rain could cause a discharge from the silver mine near Texas on the Queensland-New South Wales border.

    “Discharge water from the site would flow about seven kilometres through small drainage lines to the Dumaresq River,” the document stated.

    “Well that’s frightening because that’s only a storm,” sheep farmer Ron Morris, whose property is just eight kilometres downstream from the mine, said.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-29/ponds-containing-cyanide-could-spill-into-murray-darling-basin/6806184?-WT.mc_id=newsmail

  11. This poll tells me that the public are pleased to see the back of Tony and are at this stage happy with the sounds coming from the new government, however this shouldn’t be mistaken as the voters having fully embraced this government and it is still very much on probation.

  12. Bet you didn’t know water on Mars is part of the lefty global warming conspiracy. 😀

    [Strong evidence of water on Mars is either an amazing discovery or a leftist plot, depending on whether you are talking to NASA scientists or Rush Limbaugh. On his radio show yesterday, the latter said that while he is a “big time” science guy, he’s not buying the latest announcement because “NASA has been corrupted by the current regime” and he believes the discovery “is somehow going to find its way into a technique to advance the leftist agenda,” Politico reports.

    Limbaugh said that since NASA has been “making up” temperature data for years, “lying and making up false charts and so forth,” he suspects it is making up the Mars news as well, probably for “something to do with global warming.” “Maybe there was once an advanced civilization. If they say they found flowing water, next they’re going to find a graveyard,” he said]

    http://www.newser.com/story/213619/limbaugh-mars-water-may-be-leftist-hoax.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=autotweet1

  13. Lizzie

    There has been a similar case in WA where one of the Kimberly diamond miners shut up shop virtually overnight, sacking workers without entitlements and not paying contractors.

    I am not sure that there is toxic waste involved but I recall reading they owe the state Government millions to pay for the site rehab.

    Chances of collecting it? nIl.

    Make the directors liable? in your dreams.

    Australian corporate regulators seem to prefer to find ways not to do anything.

    There was a report in the Fairfax press yesterday about how the accumulated cost of companies going broke in the construction industry was estimated at $3 billion. And the people involved just start up again straight away.

    Royal commission anybody?

  14. Millennial@3

    William or Kevin Bonham

    So, should we expect further polls to be around 51-49 to the Coalition for the next few weeks (barring any unexpected events) or will the polling get better for the Turnbull Government?

    I wouldn’t pretend I could predict this with any confidence. Mid-term PM replacements are very rare polling events and I’d argue that each is unique. That there would be a big bounce for Turnbull coming in was obvious but as to the exact size, persistence and time of peaking for that bounce I’d say there is no way to know.

    Often bounces for leadership change take a few months to peak (the Rudd-Gillard and Gillard-Rudd changes being different because there were elections so soon after them and election campaigns compress bounces.)

    No-one should be surprised if this one has a bit more juice in it.

  15. Cyanide ponds from abandoned mine could spill into Murray-Darling Basin. Farmers fear ‘catastrophe’

    Perhaps they could get the former PM to declare ‘cyanide is good for humanity’, that will fix the problem

  16. Greens release plan to transition thousands of jobs and fund rehabilitation costs:
    http://richard-di-natale.greensmps.org.au/latest-news
    [The Greens have today released a plan to deal with the structural decline in Australia’s coal export sector, in response to a report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis that confirms the sector is in terminal decline.

    “The report concludes what many market analysts have been saying for some time – that the rapid decline in Australia’s coal exports in recent years is not a cyclical blip but a structural and terminal decline that will not recover. We need a plan for workers and their families, for our economy and our environment,” said Australian Greens Leader Dr Richard Di Natale.]

    The Greens’ plan: caring for coal wokers: http://richard-di-natale.greensmps.org.au/sites/default/files/caring_for_coal_workers.pdf

    IEFFA Report: thermal coal – http://richard-di-natale.greensmps.org.au/sites/default/files/ieefa_-_seaborne_thermal_coal_-_september_2015.pdf

    Richard Di Natale will be addressing the National Press Club tomorrow.

  17. no sniping

    IN his first radio interview as a backbencher, Mr Abbott said the proponents of a leadership coup had to move before the by-election because a predicted strong Liberal result would have proved him re-electable.

  18. Is Turnbull likely to attempt a climate/renewables policy change in response to the Paris conference? I’ll be interested to see when the renewables industry begins to pick up steam again

  19. Cant believe the stuff that Abbot is coming out with. Its delusional, and, frankly, just the message that the ALP want to push. 🙂

    “Malcolm is an empty suit fronting a Liberal party that has changed the sales team but not the product.”

    Which goes to show that the crap they have been coming out with for the last couple of years is what their party actually DOES believe in. What every one else in the country with more than half a brain considered either no Govt or Govt by brainfart….they (being a sizable and powerful minority within the Libs) actually DO consider to have been their best (and election winningly worthy LOL! ) efforts at proper Govt.

    FMD….this is actually quite spectacularly gobsmacking.

  20. The ABC’s report on Martian water had one of the (I’m guessing) NASA scientists saying what seemed to me something obviously ridiculous – wtte that “wherever we’ve found water we’ve found life” … so Mr Scientist man, where else extraterrestrially have you found water and life before?

  21. davidwh –

    I doubt Abbott’s claim the Coalition were ahead 57/43 in Canning prior to the leadership change. No polling came close to that.

    I kind of recall that there was such a poll, but the 57/43 result was one of the hypotheticals “if Malcolm Turnbull were leader” or something like that. Abbott obviously couldn’t bring himself to read that far.

  22. I doubt Abbott’s claim the Coalition were ahead 57/43 in Canning prior to the leadership change. No polling came close to that.

    He has form you know – just a tad 🙂

  23. davidwh

    [
    I doubt Abbott’s claim the Coalition were ahead 57/43 in Canning]
    It’s true ! Mind you it was a poll of Liberal supports 🙂

  24. Evening all.

    Having caught up with Abbott’s fireside chat with Hadley, all I can say is WTF? I get he’s feeling low and hard done by, but honestly, this woe-is-me stuff is completely OTT and frankly quite childish. Abbott was universally loathed by the electorate, and we just wish he’d go quietly away and enjoy having his time freed up for more cycling, surfing, and whatever else it is that he took to at taxpayer expense.

  25. Did anyone see on the news that Abbott kept glancing down when he gave his list of accomplishments. Ray gave him the questions and Tone prepared answers.

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