A Galaxy poll of federal voting intention for the News Corp tabloids – the first such poll since May – confirms the impress of ReachTEL in recording a relatively modest bounce to the Coalition, who nonetheless peak their noses in front by 51-49 on two-party preferred. That makes this the first poll since a Newspoll in early April 2014 to have the Coalition in front. The primary vote numbers are Coalition 44%, Labor 36%, Greens 11% and Palmer United 2%.
Again, this tepid result on voting intention is defied by an overwhelming lead for Malcolm Turnbull over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, in this case of 51-20. The poll also puts Joe Hockey and Scott Morrison head-to-head for preferred Treasurer, with Morrison prevailing by 41% to 16%, leaving 43% uncommitted. There is further salt for Hockey’s wounds in a finding that 48% believed Tony Abbott should have sacked him as Treasurer, with only 23% disagreeing.
The poll was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1224. As best as I’m aware, it will have encompassed live interview polling together with online and automated phone polling, and included a small sub-sample of mobile phones. The Newspoll series conducted by Galaxy for The Australian involves only online polling and automated phone polling to landlines.
@EDJ/3196
You sound like a broken record.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 11m11 minutes ago
#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 44 (+5) ALP 35 (-4) GRN 11 (-1) #auspol]
Very close to the last election primary votes there…..other than the Greens
A polite way of saying you are an idiot from Shorten there.
Very well managed in my view
Shorten should have cited the vast number of studies, some of them very detailed, refuting any notion of so-called wind farm syndrome. These studies were in fact reviewed just this past weekend on a radio science programme. Not a single credible study has ever supported wind farm syndrome.
[Possum Comitatus
Possum Comitatus – @Pollytics
It’s a tad early yet, but 51/52 on the TPP reminds me a bit of “these are not the polling figures you’re looking for”
5:29 AM – 21 Sep 2015
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australians are dumb so they just need to understand why a directly elected republic is not for them.
[Possum Comitatus
Possum Comitatus – @Pollytics
Because if that’s your honeymoon numbers, it’s a hard slog from here, hoping to god there’s no fat in the actual underlying belief
5:31 AM – 21 Sep 2015
2 RETWEETS7 FAVORITES]
[Possum Comitatus
Possum Comitatus – @Pollytics
@sarahdaviscc The bounce is not very big for Turnbull so far, and less than the Libs would be hoping, among the decent pollsters.
5:34 AM – 21 Sep 2015
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[@PhillipMHudson: Newspoll: Shorten net satisfaction is -25, a slight improvement from -28 two weeks ago. http://t.co/l0Q9PiE5NL%5D
The trend is your friend
victoria:
Interesting from Poss!
The fact that PC attacked the FTA should be a death seal for any past, current and future FTA (including TPP etc)!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/free-trade-agreements-preferential-and-dangerous-says-productivity-commission-20150624-ghw7rk.html
A fabulous Newspoll for Turnbull? He’s a mile in front on preferred PM and the best they can do in a honeymoon period is 51 – 49.
Not sure how the experts classify an outlier but that Morgan must go close.
Fess
Agreed
@PhillipMHudson: Newspoll: Shorten’s 21% better PM rating is the worst since 2009 when rating was 14% for ……
Turnbull.
http://t.co/l0Q9PiE5NL
ModLib and ESJ wetting themselves over a within MOE even stevens result
turnbull ‘soaring’ ahead of a plummet. I think many in the LNP will be disappointed with only 51:49 – this is the honeymoon and he still has Dutton, Joyce and Brandis there to fuck up (& I’d reckon Cash and Morrsion are a good chance of revealling what a nasty bunch they are), Hunt to look spineless and Pyne to grate.
if this is the peak, then the ‘norm’ will be sub-50% for the LNP.
I’m usually not impressed with Shorten,, but he’s doing Ok on QandA tonight. I’d love to see him debate Turnbull.
davidwh
As i mentioned earlier, Steve Price (whose partner is COS for Greg Hunt) dismissed Morgan as rogue
A sensible reading of the gulf between PPM and TPP:
Voters are very keen on Turnbull, but they are reserving
judgment on the question of whether Turnbull can take the
party with him on some of the questions that are important
to them – and therefore if they would vote LNP next time.
Very good showing from Bill Shorten.
Passionate, articulate, engaging.
Looking forward to the next 12 months of debate.
We are just an hour or so into the 2nd week of Turnbull’s ascendency (less if you take if from the actual swearing in!).
Give it time, folks, give it time.
They’ve asked Turnbull. Will Tony Jones interrupt Turnbull as he waffles on?
When Rudd took over from Gillard in Sept 13 the incumbent ALP received an immediate and significant boost in the polls. It didn’t last long, as most predicted. Time will tell whether Turnbull can maintain the sugar hit.
Shorten’s performance tonight showed he can and will step up to the plate.
[Not sure how the experts classify an outlier but that Morgan must go close.]
It’s always reacts the most, which is why I like it. It will come back to the pack. Bludgertrack will give it an ALP bias 🙂
re post at 3220
OK. Who hacked Rex Douglas’s log in?
I disagree. I think this is a fair result for the Coalition which was taken before the ministry changes. You would expect the new ministry would be worth a point or two on top of this.
There a fundamental difference between the lift Rudd Mk2 got in 2013 and Turnbull’s arrival on the scene: Turnbull has never previously been PM where Rudd had of course.
You lads are drinking the Kool-Aid if you think tonights performance was anywhere near acceptable.
[They’ve asked Turnbull. Will Tony Jones interrupt Turnbull as he waffles on?]
A rhetorical question I assume.
Edwina StJohn
“ha slams the working class women in the audience for complaining about the wind farm.”
Next you’ll be telling us that he has a policy to drown baby kittens.
Meanwhile:
CNN @CNN 3m3 minutes ago
Poll: @HillaryClinton’s lead over @BernieSanders grows http://cnn.it/1WdboEI
Overall, Shorten showed some serious flashes of passion. It seems that he is holding in sometimes. He seemed a little evasive over the Royal Commission union stuff until he finally had enough and gave it to the RC with both barrels.
As Rex (or his hacker) said, we should have a good 12 months of policy discussion ahead.
[Give it time, folks, give it time.]
Would you make up your mind? Do we already have definitive proof that Turnbull is as amazing as you (and he) think he is or should we wait?
alias
I agree, the public prefer Turnbull to Shorten but they don’t know how much he can shift his party in the right direction.
“@BrettLeeRetired: Tip my hat off to you @billshortenmp your handling this evening very well, even with Tony interrupting your every answer! #qanda”
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Posted Monday, September 21, 2015 at 10:16 pm | PERMALINK
We really should go to the Finland education model. Then people like Happiness could get a decent education.—————-
i’ve decided there is basically no such thing as finnish model of education – in as much as there is it involves independent schools (that is no common statewide testing), no private or church schools, free education, and a little higher paid teaching … but basically finns just respect teachers and learning an swful lot because they had to drag their country from low in europe after WW2 in order to pay russian reparations – the latter were only acquitted finally in 1986.
@Happiness/3221
He should be working his arse off to get ourselves into the so called ’21 century’.
[OK. Who hacked Rex Douglas’s log in?]
I welcome the new Rex 🙂
davidw – Why do you get 1 or 2 points for appointing a ministry? We’re hitting Peak turnBull right now.
The PPM isn’t an endorsement of turnBull. After all, as LOTO he ended up with 14% on PPM. This is about people expressing approval about the demise of Abbott.
I’m with alias and dio. The key is what the new team can do to move the government towards the centre. If the right prevents them from doing this then the polls will drift away again.
And the economic policies will be very important.
[But Budde offered a clue: “He invited me for a deeper discussion [about various issues around the NBN]; I think the time might be ripe to review the NBN and start adding the [fibre-to-the-home] extension to it.”]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/has-malcolm-turnbull-changed-his-mind-on-the-nbn-20150921-gjrgcd.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn%3Atwi-13omn1677-edtrl-other%3Annn-17%2F02%2F2014-edtrs_socialshare-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o%26sa%3DD%26usg%3DALhdy28zsr6qiq#ixzz3mNRVFpO6
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Geoffrey: As I understand it, the big diff in Finland is that there are NO private schools and a lot of teacher autonomy. That’s a long way from here, unfortunately. It certainly would mean that people like Happiness/ESJ weren’t left behind.
[You would expect the new ministry would be worth a point or two on top of this.]
Subtract -1 point for Hockey as US ambassador 🙂
Re ESJ @3228: what would have been an ‘acceptable’ performance?
[I’m with alias and dio. The key is what the new team can do to move the government towards the centre. If the right prevents them from doing this then the polls will drift away again.
And the economic policies will be very important.]
I guess hard-man Morrison is the right guy for the job then!
*smirk*
turnbull represents the true danger of having lawyers in politics. they can become defence advocates for their cause – truth is relative when it comes to adversarial law in the court of public opinion … he will be caught up
TPOF@3144
These idiots who see some virtue in ignorance self inflicted by not watching Q&A amaze me.
Shorten doing well but needs to make his answers more succinct and eliminate all the ‘ummms’ and other fillers from his speech.
He is up to the job.
Steve777 – talking to people not at them, real passion and engagement , taking risk. rehearsed and sedated sadly.
Who would be a politics interviewer?
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/leigh-sales-criticised-for-soft-touch-interview-with-malcolm-turnbull-20150921-gjrsmg.html
It’s a good thing Leigh Sales is so well paid.
My vivid imagination or has Emma Alberici been in danger of a wardrobe malfunction these past several minutes?