The first opinion poll of the Malcolm Turnbull era is a ReachTEL survey of 3278 respondents conducted for the Seven Network last night, and it has the two parties tied on two-party preferred, which is at the milder end of what I would have expected from the Turnbull bounce. It compares with leads to Labor of 53-47 in the last two polls under Tony Abbott. The primary votes are Coalition 43.3% (up 3.0%), Labor 35.9% (down 1.6%) and Greens 11.9% (down 1.5%). However, Malcolm Turnbull records a clear 61.9-38.1 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Shorten had consistently strong leads over Tony Abbott in this particular series – of 57.9-42.1 at the most recent poll on August 28. Shorten’s rating on the five-point satisfaction scale has also taken a hit, with his combined good plus very good rating down 4.6% to 18.9%, satisfactory steady on 32.5%, and poor plus very poor up 4.6% to 48.7%. Respondents were asked to rate “the performance of Tony Abbott as Prime Minister” rather than Malcolm Turnbull, and it found little change in his ratings at 27.8% for very good or good, 18.8% for satisfactory, and 53.4% for poor or very poor.
Also today, Roy Morgan unloaded its final tranche of polling conducted over the weekend, departing from its normal routine of accumulating two weekends of polling before publishing a combined a result. This poll also does not feature the usual SMS component, consisting purely of face-to-face polling, for a sample of 826 compared with its usual 3000-plus. Labor’s primary vote was up a point on the previous Morgan poll to 36.5%, with the Coalition down 1.5% to 35%, and the Greens down half-a-point to a still-imposing 16%. Labor’s two-party lead on respondent-allocated preferences blew out from 55-45 to 57-43, and rose from 55.5-44.5 to 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate on the sidebar has been updated with the latest Essential and Morgan results to produce a concluding result for Tony Abbott’s prime ministership. This records a 0.2% shift to Labor on two-party preferred compared with last week, and credits Labor with single gains on the seat projection in New South Wales and Western Australia. There were, however, no new results on the leadership ratings.
Also of note: the Australian Electoral Commission published draft boundaries on Friday for a redistribution of the Australian Capital Territory’s two seats. This is chiefly notable for proposing that the electorate of Fraser, held for Labor by Andrew Leigh, be renamed Fenner, in honour of virologist Professor Frank Fenner. The rationale is that the name Fraser should be freed up for use in the next redistribution in Victoria, in honour of the late Malcolm Fraser. More substantively, the redistribution proposes the transfer of the city centre and the southern parts of Turner and Braddon immediately to the north, together with Reid and Campbell to the east. This involves the transfer of around 10,000 voters from Fraser to Canberra (which is held for Labor by Gai Brodtmann), leaving Labor’s two-party margin in Fraser unchanged at 12.6%, while increasing the Canberra margin from 7.0% to 7.4%.
Mike at 995 – that’s easy to answer, Hastie said it himself. Because they’re more comfortable giving/obeying orders unquestioningly than using logic and evidence to persuade/come to new understandings
[The office is not expected to be fully vacated until Saturday, making it one of the slower transitions for a head of government of recent years.]
Talcolm better sweep for IED’s.
[While the former prime minister Tony Abbott is understood to have left, his staff are still occupying the prime minister’s office suite, led by his former chief of staff, Peta Credlin.]
LOL that’s hilarious! A group sit-in in protest even after the main event has moved on.
Talk about ideas and ambitions above their station.
If anyone out there is writing Shorten’s zingers: FFS!
“The Libs would have picked up points if Tony Abbott was rolled by Dracula.”
No, “worse than Turnbull” was “Cory Bernardi”. Obscure, and anyway he’s a senator.
Come on, you can see it. Impeccable dress sense, widow’s peak, filthy rich, turns up his collar.
Is it just that I’m a bit bombed and I’m channelling a cartoon I’ve seen?
Laura Tingle is withering in her comments
[One of the more gobsmacking features of Abbott’s departure statement on Tuesday was his suggestion that his downfall was due to internal white-anting and a hostile media.
This was from a prime minister whose path to destruction was littered with more own goals than any other failed leader of recent times; whose prime ministership has been cosseted and egged on by the largest media organisation in the country. Even the perpetual fawning of News Ltd toadies, the manufacture of ludicrous stories about Abbott’s opponents, the ignoring of unfortunate or embarrassing issues, couldn’t save him from himself.
]
Read more: http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/laura-tingle/leadership-spill-turnbull-coup-resets-a-government-that-had-stopped-working-20150917-gjoxui#ixzz3lzV1V4Bn
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook
Thanks sprocket. This is so absolutely true:
[This was from a prime minister whose path to destruction was littered with more own goals than any other failed leader of recent times; whose prime ministership has been cosseted and egged on by the largest media organisation in the country. Even the perpetual fawning of News Ltd toadies, the manufacture of ludicrous stories about Abbott’s opponents, the ignoring of unfortunate or embarrassing issues, couldn’t save him from himself.]
Read more: http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/laura-tingle/leadership-spill-turnbull-coup-resets-a-government-that-had-stopped-working-20150917-gjoxui#ixzz3lzVybTek
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook
Abbott: the most incompetent PM this country has seen, even with being the most heavily managed.
Double incompetence.
Player One
[The plebiscite is an expensive delaying tactic. If Turnbull is too gutless to legislate, he should pay for the plebiscite out of his own pocket. ]
It might be a delaying tactic, but it’s still just a delay. He’ll go through the long-winded process and then it’ll happen. He won’t be strung up by anyone just because he could have done it faster.
z
“A change of salesman does not equate to a change of spots.
Fools n idiots of Australian voters.”
Spot on!
Same LNP pig, new lipstick.
It’s hard to believe that, with all Tone’s photo-ops, he still had time to ride his push-bike for a couple of hours every morning. Boy did he fill every minute of every day.
I respect Tingle, but you have to say I suspect a Turnbull supporter.
[It’s hard to believe that, with all Tone’s photo-ops, he still had time to ride his push-bike for a couple of hours every morning. Boy did he fill every minute of every day.]
Did Abbott turn up to QT today?
Triton – I don’t think the gay community is particularly pleased about becoming the centre of a same-sex plebiscite. And I’m particularly pissed off about having to waste time turning up to a polling station. Certainly won’t be a vote winner for him.
[You might think PTSD, not something to be laughed at.]
Whatever it is, I have seen nothing of Hastie that provides any assurance that he will be a good representative of any colour. And all everyone on his side seems to do is bang on and on about his military service as why he should be elected. I have the utmost respect for a lot of people who put their lives on the line for this country, but that does not make them prima facie entitled to be elected members of parliament.
Tingle has shown a huge amount of class during Abbott’s tenure and really led the pack. Indeed, she’s so classy that she didn’t bother calling Abbott “decent”.
Confessions – I’m sure the church bells would have been ringing if he did.
Seems to be a bit of heat on marriage equality.
If I were Malcolm Dracula, I’d hold the plebiscite with the election. Gives the punters a vote, might drag out 100k voters who otherwise wouldn’t show, harvest their preferences. What expense?
Richard – I really do think has the potential to be a quite vicious plebiscite (I hope I’m wrong). And if I was in the gay community, I would be saying: why can’t I have my rights like everybody else without being exposed to this. I don’t think Malcolm is really helping himself on this
Has anyone thought that having a plebiscite at the time of the election would if anything encourage younger people to register and that would improve the ALP vote.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
[Triton – I don’t think the gay community is particularly pleased about becoming the centre of a same-sex plebiscite. And I’m particularly pissed off about having to waste time turning up to a polling station. Certainly won’t be a vote winner for him. ]
The gay community will be celebrating and throwing parties on the night, assuming that it gets up. And you might be pissed off, but he’ll paint it as democracy at work and get away with it. He’ll get it into law and appease his party as far as he can and won’t suffer any electoral backlash.
Boolenbach
I am curious to know why you think Australia had any role in the SO2 issue? I am not aware of it although it may be so.
Australia was always lucky in that our oil and coal was relatively low sulphur.
We were NOT known for our leadership. There was a joke that went:
From the OECD Science Secretary Australian Embassy Paris
here is the brief that can be used for every environmental pollution issue.
1. USA believes there may be a problem and has drafted several reports on the topic and draft rules in the Federal Register
2. Japan is developing technology to address this issue
3. Germany (West) is very concerned about the issue and has issued regulations controlling use and emissions.
4. Sweden has introduced legislation to control this issue, expected to be fully implemented this year
5. the UK believes there is a problem but is not in a position to take action at this time
6. France says there is no problem
7. Australia is awaiting overseas experience.
This from the wag in Europe circa 1979
[He won’t be strung up by anyone just because he could have done it faster.]
Yes he will. If he does not hold a plebiscite in conjunction with the next election, Shorten will just make the election a plebiscite and tell the nation they are saving $158 million.
MH @ 1011
[I respect Tingle, but you have to say I suspect a Turnbull supporter.]
I thought her analysis was very good. Turnbull, by emphasising Cabinet solidarity, is leaving the way open to change government decisions. At the moment he is is deferring to the process, which is critical to all the members of his party, left or right. The real political challenge for him will be to bring policy closer to the centre (and what was promised before the last election) while keeping the economic and social right together. Labor is, quite appropriately, seeking to lock him into the Liberal right’s unpopular policies before he can segue to something more acceptable. But that does not mean he is not intending to go there.
The challenge for Turnbull – and one that requires huge political finesse – will be to achieve a move closer to the centre while uniting the party behind him (and the Nationals) and keeping them united. This is the hugely tall order.
Richard Di Natale was interviewed on ABC RN Drive tonight. Included responses to questions on Greens Party minor portfolio reshuffle.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/di-natale3a-turnbull-has-already-disappointed/6784916
[Richard Di Natale is relatively new to his role as leader of the Australian Greens.
Now, he finds himself up against a brand new prime minister.
But will Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership change anything on key Greens issues like climate change and asylum seekers?]
K17 @ 1018
[ I really do think has the potential to be a quite vicious plebiscite (I hope I’m wrong)]
I agree. But I get the sense that the LGBTI community is prepared to take the risk if it finally gets them there. But if it is put beyond the next election, Labor will make the election a plebiscite and all they need to argue is the cost of a separate plebiscite. I’m sure Turnbull is very aware of this.
triton @ 1020
Yes the LGBT community will celebrate if marriage equality passes a referendum, but what of the harm that campaign will cause? All the nasty anti-gay groups will come out of the woodwork during that campaign, full of hate-speech about how gays aren’t normal, that they are a danger to children, that they’re disordered and mentally ill, that they’re sinful abominations in the eyes of the Lord.
What is going to happen to young LGBT kids who hear that during a campaign and then have to endure their their parents, their teachers and their friends discussing their sexuality in that manner?
Some kids are to try and harm themselves in that kind of campaign. It’s just a reality.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-17/senate-backs-parliamentary-conscience-vote-on-same-sex-marriage/6781992
1021
The reason that SO2 was a bigger issue in Europe and the USA was that Australia did not have the same level of concentration of coal burning that Europe did and I believe that much of our coal is lower in sulphur than many other sources of coal (one of the reasons it has been such a big export, the other being we have lots of it close enough to the surface to mine open cut or with comparatively short shaft coal mines at low cost). Our coal burning regions are also away from our largest population centres.
triton
[ He won’t be strung up by anyone just because he could have done it faster. ]
This decision will lose him votes. And this is just one issue. There are many more issues on which he is blatantly just as useless as Abbott. Each one will lose him some more votes. He may never go as low as Abbott – but he doesn’t have to go that low to lose the next election.
Tom
Yes absolutely
Of all the air quality issues that were major in the 70s -90s SO2 in Australia ranked pretty low -except in Mt Isa and maybe Whyalla, because we did not have much high sulphur fuel and most of our power stations were well away from cities
[Dave Donovan
Dave Donovan – @davrosz
I think Turnbull’s popularity will hold, because everyone loves insufferably smug, condescending, filthy rich former banker lawyers.
11:11 PM – 16 Sep 2015
55 RETWEETS41 FAVORITES]
BK
I can’t come at Hastie. He has a certain creepiness about him.
Christian door knocker?
@Pegasus
Thanks for that! Would have missed it otherwise.
Lol pl1 your very funny!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/rob-sturrock/weakness-and-crisis-lie-a_b_8137980.html?utm_hp_ref=au-politics
[The volatile and uncertain context within which Australian Prime Ministers currently govern is untenable. Australia is a country in crisis; not because of economic calamity or threatened borders, but because we are entering an era of significant transition but cannot find a steady direction to steer, nor someone reliable to take the helm. The normalisation of political coups and short-lived Prime Ministerships are symptomatic of a country struggling to embrace the big-picture challenges of the 21st century, too timid to upset a faltering status quo.
We are missing our moment to build the Golden State and it is questionable whether a change of Prime Minister alone is sufficient. BBC Correspondent Nick Bryant released a new book, The Rise and Fall of Australia, cataloguing our national slump. In his synopsis he states, ‘its recession-proof economy is the envy of the world. It’s the planet’s great lifestyle superpower. But its politics have never been so brutal, narrow and facile, as well as such a global laughing stock’.]
Holy crap I’m in complete agreement with Campbell Newman…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-17/campbell-newman-eyes-future-in-agricultural-robots/6783448
About agri-robotics, that is.
PhoenixGreen,
It’s good to see more Greens supporters and members posting here now. Pre-2010 there weren’t so many.
ajm@976
She struck me as being a bit like Tania Plibersek in the way she handled that twerp Rowan Dean.
I loved it. 😆
Pegasus – It is precisely because we have a recession proof economy (without serious challenges) that our politics has been so self-indulgent and brutal. Wait till we have a serious recession. Then we’ll sort out where this country is going.
Tweed Council has tonight elected its first Greens mayor.
http://www.echo.net.au/2015/09/tweed-elects-its-first-greens-mayor/
Statement from the Greens’ Dawn Walker:
“the Richmond federal electorate now has two Green mayors, which is indicative of the growing strength of the party”
She says this “positions the Greens as the main alternative to the National Party on the north coast”
Pegasus / PhoenixGreen,
There are plenty more Greens supporters who just lurk or only post occasionally. Too many arguments between the hardliners from both sides for me to wade in any more frequently.
K17
I fear the decline in our polity is more than just because we are doing economically OK. Cannot put my finger on it but it is pretty scary.
daretoread @ 1041 – it is our cynicism. We’ve become too cynical about politics to expect it to actually bring about substantive change in society. When we say, “they’re all as bad as each other” and then stop listening, we perpetuate a system of governance that is increasingly remote from everyday lives.
It is a symptom of neoliberal economics that reduces us to consumers and units of production and negates our interconnected humanity. We see everything around us privatised and deregulated, including our politics and our media. They’re now owned by a small class of the very wealthy, while the rest of us have to cope with insecure employment, unaffordable housing, welfare shame, and increasingly underfunded public services.
DTT – I suppose that, if you want the answer, you’ll have to try and work out why Tony Abbott became PM. Maybe part of the answer is the decline of mass participation parties which allowed a nut like him (and his followers) to capture a major party.
badseed,
I remember you from the past. I only post sporadically too, even though it’s a much kinder, gentler place now than it was pre-2010.
Back then my comrade-in-arms was Jaundiced View, a disenchanted Labor leftie, who also advocated passionately on behalf of asylum seekers and refugees.
I miss his posts. He’s taken to twitter where he recently was saying vote Greens in the Senate and informally in the HoR.
Jimmy – We are also becoming much less homogeneous as a society, which may also have created disintegration.
Now that Abbott is gone and Abetz sure to follow, is Turnbull up to the task of removimg Michael Lawler from FWA?
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/when-will-turnbull-remove-michael-lawler,8172
PhoenixGreen,
Great news about Tweed Council! 🙂
I live in Whitehorse LGA, Victoria where we have had Greens mayors in the past even though its not an inner city latte sipping area 😉
Our local branch continues to experience an influx of new members which is terrific 🙂
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN @ 1045
I agree and disagree. Racial diversity in and of itself cannot explain Australia’s woes. There are many historical examples of racially diverse societies that existed harmoniously.
Australia has always been a fairly racist country and all too willing to scapegoat racial and religious minorities. Instead of placing the blame squarely at the feet of an elite (both political and non-political) that accepts neoliberal ideology as simple economics and a corporate owned media that protects that consensus, we blame immigrants and illegal refugees and dole bludgers for our nation’s moral and political failure.
Pegasus – I live in Whitehorse too 🙂
I’ve found it to be something of a lefty oasis in the middle of the conservative eastern suburbs. I’m not sure why.
How the mighty have fallen:
Kiera @KieraGorden 1m1 minute ago
Now Campbell Newman is blaming social media & MSM for his demise. The lack of insight with Libs is astounding #AusPol