Morgan: Turnbull 70, Shorten 24

A snap SMS poll finds Malcolm Turnbull with a resounding lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, while Essential Research offers its final poll of the Tony Abbott era.

The first nugget of polling of the Malcolm Turnbull era is impressive even by the usual honeymoon effect standard, with Roy Morgan finding Turnbull enjoying a 70-24 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, including a 50-44 lead among Labor supporters. The poll was conducted today from a sample of 1204 respondents.

Also out today is a now-redundant final reading of voting intention under Tony Abbott from Essential Research, which shows the pollster’s usual steady form in having the Coalition on 40%, Labor on 38% and the Greens on 11%, with Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred – none of which is changed from last week. Most of the remaining questions concern refugees, including a factual question on Australia’s refugee intake that produced fairly unremarkable results, with the highest response being for the broadly accurate total of “about 15,000”. Nor did Essential find evidence that opinions dramatically differed between a sub-sample that was advised of the actual figure and the other sub-sample that wasn’t.

Regarding the 12,000 additional Syrian refugees, Essential recorded 19% saying the number should be higher, 36% opting for lower and 30% saying it was about right. Forty-eight per cent expressed support for Australian involvement in air strikes on Islamic State in Syria, with 29% opposed. Other questions found 38% saying the unions’ take on the China free trade agreement, specifically that it fails to protect Australian workers, to be more credible than the government’s line that the agreement contains adequate protections; and 38% saying the coal industry should continue to expand with 33% saying it should not do so, which is a more positive result than you usually get concerning non-renewable energy sources.

Other polling intelligence of recent times that remains of at least historical interest:

• Liberal internal polling reported by InDaily had the Nick Xenophon Team, which is yet to announce candidates, ahead of Labor in the South Australian seats of Barker and Mayo, and ahead of the Liberals in Adelaide and Kingston – suggesting the NXT would very likely win the seats on respective Labor and Liberal preferences.

• Labor internal polling reported by the Herald-Sun suggests the Greens are a big show in the blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Higgins, held for the Liberals currently by Kelly O’Dwyer, and in the past by Peter Costello, John Gorton and Harold Holt. The poll had the Greens on “between 24-26 per cent” with Labor on 24%, panning out to 50-50 in Liberal-versus-Greens two-party terms if the Greens did indeed finish ahead of Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,190 comments on “Morgan: Turnbull 70, Shorten 24”

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  1. @adam abdool

    He encouraged vitriol, racism and hatred of poor people. He cut billions from the most needy and made life harder for most Australians and tried to do so much more. The world’s smallest effing violin, mate.

  5. The result differs from the usual Morgan poll in being a) from one weekend of polling rather than two, and b) face-to-face only, hence without the usual SMS component, and a relatively small sample of 826. The SMS component tended to mitigate the lean to Labor in the face-to-face results.

  7. Turnbull To Bring Change By Keeping All The Same Policies

    Newly appointed Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has confirmed he will be bringing a new era of change to Australia by retaining all the same policies as the previous Abbott government.

    Speaking for the first time since the spill, Turnbull confirmed the party’s stance on equal marriage amendments, direct action on climate change, the national broadband network and various other policies but made it very clear that the letterhead on those policies will be undergoing substantial change.

    “It’s a new dawn,” said Turnbull. “But, even in a new dawn the sun rises in essentially the same way and does basically the same thing it did the day before. We’re going to bring about substantial change just not change in substance.

    “What’s really important is appearances. We look new. We sound different. That lets us be the same in an even more invigorating way.”

    http://www.sbs.com.au/comedy/article/2015/09/16/turnbull-bring-change-keeping-all-same-policies

  11. bemused

    [A comment as idiotic as TBA’s.]

    Hahahah good come back.

    I was teasing earlier, of course I don’t think you’re a Menzies troll.

  13. Not that it matters anymore, but going by Morgan’s primaries; the TPP is 55.8 to Labor, which is reduced to 53.8 to Labor once factoring in Morgan’s Labor/Greens bias + no SMS component.

  14. [“It’s a new dawn,” said Turnbull. “But, even in a new dawn the sun rises in essentially the same way and does basically the same thing it did the day before. We’re going to bring about substantial change just not change in substance.]

    Not bad!

  15. William

    A rellie in Adelaide told me today that she was robo polled last night. She thought it was part of Liberal Party polling and was asked other questions besides who she would vote for.

  16. Millennial@1043

    I’m far from a prominent businessman. I’m just an investor and director in a medium-sized private company that has, as a large part of its operations, a joint venture in China. I’ve ended up taking a leading role in that joint venture due to my links with China.

    The stock market tumble has had little impact on day-to-day operations. In relation to the size of the economy, the stock market is tiny. Most companies have a dual-listing (e.g. in Shanghai and Hong Kong, or Shenzhen and Hong Kong), and a large proportion of companies aren’t publicly listed at all.

    The stock market could crash entirely, and the impact would be felt more in confidence than in actual impacts on business.

    The issue with the stock market is that it’s grossly speculative. Since late last year, the state media (especially CCTV) has been encouraging people to buy stocks, stating that the stock market is only going up, and that it’s patriotic to invest.

    So, plenty of “aunties” (a Chinese term for non-working women, such as retirees and housewives) opened share trading accounts. They ploughed their life savings into the accounts, and for the first half of the year, made crazy returns as all the other aunties pushed up the prices. Then, thinking they could make even more money, many went to “shadow” (i.e. illegal) margin lenders and started opening margin accounts.

    Then, a confluence of events occurred. Some bad data came in, in terms of production and infrastructure investment, and the market dipped. At the same time, the Government started cracking down on the proliferation of shadow margin lenders, who called in their debts.

    These two events led to a surge in margin calls, and a sell-off on the stock market as small investors struggled to scrape together enough to pay off their debts. That led to a negative feedback loop until the Government stepped in.

    They stepped in by going absolutely over the top. They banned directors and managers at publicly listed companies from selling shares. They ordered state pension funds to directly invest in the (falling) stock market. They directly bought shared in blue chip companies. They started ordering Party members and businesspeople to directly buy shares in specific companies, and then banned them from selling. They started arresting anyone who had made money by short selling. It was madness.

    Now, everyone’s gone gun-shy about the stock market. Everyone wants to get out as soon as it’s politically acceptable to do so, lest they be banned from selling their shares again, or be accused of profiteering. Nobody wants to go IPO right now, because then any fall in share price will be used against them politically.

    Basically, everyone is eyeing other bourses and looking to stay away from Shanghai and Shenzhen.

    The real concern isn’t the share market. It’s the latest fixed-asset investment and industrial production data. It’s not looking so good. The hit to confidence by the Government’s overreaction to the share market is just another punch in the guts of the economy.

    But, the Government just seems fixated on propping up the share market right now whatever the costs, to avoid a backlash. They seem to be doing nothing at all about the larger systemic issues with the economy. I guess they figure that if hundreds of thousands of middle-aged ladies lose their life savings as a result of stock market speculation that was encouraged by state media, then that’s an existential threat.

  17. [Gawd is Tanya already bringing out the gender card. That didn’t take long.

    Yeah, Turnbull is personally neither culpable nor vulnerable on that front. Leave it alone.]

    I didn’t see it, but Turnbull IS a mansplainer, on every subject, to any listener, regardless of gender…

  19. I believe they do, Chinda. They’ve told me they will be shortly publishing results for NXT, presumably as part of a move to full publication of state-level primary vote results. Keep in mind that the SA sample in this particular poll would have been less than 50.

  25. @Airlines 80#

    “Kevin Rudd’s idiotic rule change is going to seriously harm Labor’s chances at winning an election at some point in the future, may as well do it now, cut the losses and change the rules back”

    I know this comment was posted a while ago, but I have to respond to this. NO WAY!!!! There has been four prime minsters in four years, and it’s been done because the decisions have been left to number crunches, factional heads, and ambitious people who interests are not the national interests but their own. And some in the Labor party had a gutfull with it and brought in a mechanism in the rank and file having a vote on the leader to take away the power away from a few.

    Don’t be surprised if the Liberals go down this path. The rank and file in the Libaral party are going feral at the moment. And the political stability of leadership of the (Hawke, Keating, Howard) years of Prime Minstership seem like a distant memory.

  26. Well if Abbott hadn’t been rolled, then a 57/43 result might just have been the push that Turnbull needed.

    Regardless, a rogue 57 (as William points out, partially due to a change in polling methodology) will make the inevitable Turnbull bounce look even more impressive.

  29. [At least one Pabor figure has something positive to say about our new PM.]

    That, sir, is Qld State Labor laying a trap to wedge the PM between inflated public expectation and party-political pragmatics.

    This is great team tactics by Labor.

  30. David #1075

    […the political stability of leadership of the (Hawke, Keating, Howard) years of Prime Minstership seem like a distant memory.]

    Umm… Keating only became PM because he challenged Hawke for his position of the Labor Party.

  34. Millennial #1080

    …”the political stability of leadership of the (Hawke, Keating, Howard) years of Prime Minstership seem like a distant memory.

    Umm… Keating only became PM because he challenged Hawke for his position of the Labor Party.”

    Keating challenged Hawke when he was in his fourth term, after Hawke had been PM for almost nine years. I think that’s a bit different to challenging a PM in their first term which is what has happened to Tony Abbott and Kevin Rudd.

  37. I think we are meant to be getting a ReachTel today on 7 news… I expect it to be particularly sugary given it was taken (probably last night) while the whole nation breathed a collective sigh of relief.

  38. @davidwh/1071

    Obviously trying to be all friendly about it hoping to get a better deal than what Abbott tried to get.

    But for me, there is no change until those on Welfare (especially now with Youths who are now expect to be out of pocket for Slave Dole with not being paid for 20-40 hours a week), Domestic Violence, Abuse, Climate Change and of course the real NBN which Turnbull screwed up as Comms Minister.

  39. > AJH : Why the focus on jobs?

    Because that’s the intent of the agreement according to the people who are championing it?

    I think you need to actually acquaint yourself with the actual modeling that is being touted by the negotiators, instead of being bamboozled by the press releases.

  42. David #1084

    [Keating challenged Hawke when he was in his fourth term, after Hawke had been PM for almost nine years. It’s different to challenging a PM in their first term which is what has happened to Tony Abbott and Kevin Rudd.]

    Ah, I see. OK, that makes sense, I suppose.

  44. LU
    Anastasia P needs funding for the Gold Coast RT, without strings attached. The ideological idiocy of Abbott that insisted that money is only available if they sell assets meant Anastasia could not move, given the electoral hatred for asset sales.

  45. Bushfire Bill

    [
    I just had to pinch myself.

    Yes. It’s true: Abbott’s gone.]
    A wonderful sense of quietness after the constant din of the StoptheboatsDeathcultDebtanddeficitdisaster jackhammer .

  49. I had to dash away during QT and was driving along with vision of Malcolm’s ‘explaining’ to the benches still in my head.

    I wonder which cartoonist will draw the PM as a pouter pigeon, bowing from one side to the other as he woos the Parliament. Watch him with muted sound and you’ll see what I mean.

  50. Completely off topic, but fark me the National Electricity Rules are farking impenetrable and ridiculously convoluted…

    Want innovation, Turnbull?

    Then invest in the tech that makes regulations machine-readable, interpretable in a deontic logic, and easily testable for new market participants. You wouldn’t know it, but we are actually leaders in this fairly new and esoteric branch of computer science, at least until NICTA was gutted.

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