The Australian has served up a static result from Newspoll, with the two-party preferred unchanged on a fortnight ago at 54-46, from primary votes of 39% for the Coalition (up one), 39% for Labor (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down one). The one exception is that the recovery in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings recorded in the last poll has proved to be painfully short-lived, with his approval down four points to 30% and disapproval at 58%. Tony Abbott, on the other hand, is unchanged on both measures, with approval at 30% and disapproval at 63%. Preferred prime minister is at 41-37 in favour of Shorten, compared with 40-35 last time. The poll also finds 43% supporting the China free-trade agreement with 35% opposed. I understand there was also a question on the trade union royal commission, but they may be holding back on that one.
UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan, which combines two weekends of polling conducted by face-to-face and SMS, with a total sample of 2653, has the Coalition down two points on the primary vote to 36.5%, but with Labor also down half a point to 35.5% – leaving room for the Greens to soar 2.5% to a record high of 16.5%. A weaker flow to Labor of respondent-allocated preferences means there is only a modest change on the headline two-party preferred figure, which goes from 54.5-45.5 to 55-45. On 2013 election preferences flows, the shift is from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5.
UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): No change whatsoever in Essential Research this week, unless you count a shift in “others” from 10% and 9% that makes no difference to any other party due to rounding effects, or a one-point gain for the Nationals at the expense of the Liberals. This leaves Labor with a lead of 52-48, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 2% for Palmer United. We also get Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Tony Abbott slumping five points on approval to 33% with disapproval up four to 57%, Bill Shorten steady on 29% approval and down two on disapproval to 50% (his short-lived spike after the Dyson Heydon controversy presumably having passed Essential’s monthly series by), and Shorten taking a lead on preferred prime minister for the first time since March, at 35-32 compared with a 36-32 lead for Abbott last time.
The poll also gauged approval for Joe Hockey, who recorded an improvement when the question was last asked in the wake of the May budget, but is now back to his ear worst with approval down four to 30% and and disapproval up eight to 52%. Questions on the trade union royal commission found 42% saying Dyson Heydon should stand down as trade union royal commissioner, compared with 32% who thought he should continue, and 36% believing the royal commission to be biased against unions, the ALP or both, compared with only 29% who rated it as unbiased. Respondents were also asked if they would “support or oppose cutting income tax and raising the GST to 15%”, with 52% coming down as opposed compared with only 27% in favour.
Scotland cannot have a binding referendum without the permission of the UK Parliament.
If the UK votes to leave the EU but Scotland`s voters do not then there will be a significant swing in favour of Scotland quitting the UK to stay in the EU.
Exactly. Too late, sweet hearts!
The Scots deserve every nasty Tory policy the Cameron Government gives them after what the SNP and its fish-inspired leaders did to UK Labour.
The Scots made their Tory bed at the General Election, they can go lie in it!
Whenever Abbott goes, it will be a good day. But, I do not know which would be better, for him to swing in the breeze getting more stinking by the day until the next fed election, or for abbott to be toppled early, whereby the Liebs wear the ‘dysfunctional’tag while they tear each other apart.
It is a hard one.
Darren Laver
UK Labour is run by right-wing Blairites that have greater loyalty to the Bankers of London than the people who voted for them for 100 years.
The SNP did nothing to Unionist Labour it was the voters wot done it. 🙂
I love this bon mot:
Puff,
I wouldn’t bet on this. For one thing no matter what happens, the Murdoch media will put a positive spin on it. For another Morrison is an entirely different personality and quite a few people will be willing to take him on trust.
Will they tear each other apart with Morrsion at the helm? I don’t know about that either. They may pull together.
My hope if Abbott does go, is that he’ll fight dirty and even Murdoch won’t be able to paper over what transpires.
53
This may be my impatience talking, but I think the sooner Abbott is gone the better, for the country’s sake. As a swinging voter it certainly won’t be changing my vote at the next election
I can’t think of a leadership change scenario that won’t lead to ongoing ructions within the LNP. That and any new leader would be wise to call an early election/seek a mandate to govern or the polls will go south again very quickly
tl;dr – I can’t see the LNP being able to win an election from here, best be rid of Abbott asap
Jeremy Corbyn might be popular with many Labour supporters but I don’t see him as electable.
British Labour is fast making the mistake of confusing the need for good social and economic policy with lets attack the rich.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
It is a toughie but I vote for gorn asap. The higher his entry into the history books of shortest term Australian PM the better. He is young enough to have many years of contemplating that.
From the previous thread…
We have no time to waste. Committed voters are identified (good for the database). The unsure/receptive are the focus. This time around it’s proving quite easy elicit a response.
I agree. We have to do our best. We are. There is great spirit. We may not win, but it not be for a lack of will…only a lack of time.
It is going to be tough to win. But if we do, the LNP will break in half. We would be doing the voters of Canning a dis-service if we did not try our best to win. I’ve been looking these people in the face and listening to them, shaking hands with them. A lot of people are very hurt. They want to express that and I’m personally committed to helping them do it.
I don’t know.
Yes, and it’s being updated as we go. It’s invaluable.
Thanks Puff!!
🙂
oh, Abbott doesn’t give two shits about the party, for the past year it’s been about him alone trying to rescue his job. And bugger the party if they get in the way. He will care even less about its electoral prospects if they roll him.
If you think Rudd was treacherous, wait until the budgie smugglers hit the backbench
ratsak @ 12
And why not? After all, the Coalition convinced themselves that Australia would run itself once they got into power. All they had to do was connive on how to win the following election while implementing the ideologically driven policies taken from the the IPA archives.
What do bullies do when defeated? Its hard to predict. Often they run away and sulk.
Menzies sold metal to the Japanese after they’d began their expansion into Asia and had a plan to surrender everything north of NSW to the Japanese if they invaded. He gave our army to the Pomsin Europe and left us almost defenseless. The reason we “stood and fought” was the ALP.
No doubt you’re as gutless as him and his little toerag lickspittle Howard.
If I were a Scot I would want to seceed from a polity as hopelessly infested with the pestilance of Neoliberalism as the UK.
John Howard was sane.
Tony Abbott is more like a..a..a………bugger, we have never had a PM that bad or mad or sad in our nation’s history.
Since there’s a discussion going on about history and records tonight, it’s worth noting that if the coalition were to lose the next election 54-46, that would be the worst two party preferred vote for the coalition since the Liberal Party was formed, and also the largest two-party preferred swing against the coalition ever recorded.
Abbott is a failure. A complete failure. He has no idea how to lead even his own party let alone this country. He should be thrown out forthwith.
Shorten is like a Beazley, Crean or Calwall but not Latham. For a start, he’s sane.
As for Abbott, maybe a right wing and far less intelligent version of Latham? A Billy Morris Hughes? He’s really not like anyone in Australia who got to or near the top. Maybe a Wilson Tuckey.
No i didn’t!
What plan? You lot are fwarking allergic to making progress on anything not on your donors to do list!
By plunging the country into record debt and deficit you morons!!
Oh doGs save us!
Your own jobs, your donors wealth growth, and fear of everything!
No, the coalition is sticking to the plan of lie a lot and then deny you have lied and … oh, unicorns over there!!!!
Yes, and his advisers are as well.
Yup, they do. They have that low a regard for the electorate, which is somewhat borne out by the polls showing something like 37-39% of people would give them their first preference.
Its a bit scary to think that a lot of these people share our roads and control machinery even though they ARE in fact that stupid. 🙁
Someone should get one of those border force toy puppies and make a satirical stop-motion animation film with it
swamprat #50
Tell that to the Australian Republic Movement.
Actually, maybe the Abbott Government resembles what would have happened had ‘Joh for Canberra’ succeeded all those years ago. Abbott has also been compared to Vladimir Putin, but he’s nowhere near as smart. Or to George W Bush but less intelligent, eloquent or personable.
shiftaling @ 71: I thought it was a stuffed toy in the image of the ABF Commissioner giving that press conference on Black Friday.
Steve777: The Abbott government has long reminded me of the short-lived Borbidge government in Queensland. Especially in its holy war against independent institutions – notably the HRC and the OIC in the case of Abbott, and the Queensland CJC in the case of Borbidge.
I would pay actual money for a border force toy
The whole concept seems so absurd. I have to have one
Just checking the exchange rate…finished very weak @ just on USD0.69…signals more deceleration in the AU economy.
Professor Walker said it was “hard to think of a more blatant ethical breach than the publication of a defective report on government finances just days before a national election”.
http://m.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalition-auditor-for-2013-election-costings-breached-standards-20150905-gjfxwj.html
trand @ 76: It sounds like the sort of thing which you could put on the bonnet of a car, or in a float in the Sydney Mardi Gras.
Why don’t you start making and selling them yourself?
It is funny though — when the dollar was high, we had whinging exporters — now we have economists and others trashing the Aussie dollar everyday in the press, taunting the markets with “how low can she go” trashtalk.
Not great for suckers like me who earn my income in Australian dollars!
I could do that…some border force voodoo dolls perhaps. Stick a pin in one and Dutton will make another gaffe
Objectively speaking, Shorten is purely and simply simply playing his cards carefully and being cautious. Naturally, running small target and being attacked on a personal level due to the TURC has its effect today.
However, within 12 months this arithmetic will not remain the same as it is now. The royal comission report will be handed down by the end of THIS year. And next year politics will be more of a central focus on people’s minds as an election year, whereas this year there is no such focus.
People right now are saying, why is it only 54-46, why isn’t it 60-40. I think the weeks and months leading up to the election will favour such a landscape more than it does now.
I am also of the opinion that the coalition will not go to the polls until the fall of 2016, even if they change leaders . They simply don’t have the courage to call an early election and risk a loss, they do not handle opposition well.
US
If I was the ALP I would not want to see 60-40 as that is not a normal looking poll number, anything less that 55-45 can be viewed as being more real world.
The trend is for a slight drift towards the ALP, its a nice rate considering the next election is not for another nine to twelve months.
Steve,
What we have is a sub clinical psychopath whose risen to the level of PM.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/lifestyle/how-to-pick-psychopaths-among-us/story-e6frf00i-1226563149785
Sounds familiar doesn’t it?
Mexicanbeemer
As I said, we are far more likely to see the labor 2PP with a 6 in front of it next year than we are this year, Which would seriously catch the coalition with a rude shock. The fact that the gap is not so big and in within the 55-45 range right now is largely due to bill shortens careful calculations and strategic planning. I am not saying i approve of the guy, I will reserve that judgment for when he becomes PM, however he will not come across like Latham to be a maniac, like crean to be uncharismatic or like beazley to be outdated; he will be electable whatever his personal approval is.
US
Shorten is an interesting one, I am yet to be convinced about his potential, although in saying that he was impressive when responsible for disability services.
I have to have a border force stuffed dog. It has to become a collectible!
Mexicanbeemer
We will judge his potential via his policy achievements and record in goverment. However we can all agree that he is being careful and cautious in opposition.
US,
I actually doubt that the current polls has much to do with Shorten. I think they reflect that on the one hand there’s a multitude of governance issues (lies, cuts, meanness in general) and on the other a lot of people remember the Murdoch media’s portrayal of Labor as incompetent/wasteful and its only human nature to resist thinking you made a mistake.
In a way, the current polls show how deeply some people must feel about the stupidity and meanness of the Abbott government. But I wouldn’t take the polls to mean enough people have definitely switched their votes yet.
Shorten needs to win one policy at a time. And he’s already committed to superannuation changes and an ETS. That alone is a tough sell. Will wait and see what he has to say about rescuing the NBN from destruction. I think that could win votes if sold well.
Labor do need to get much better at selling, despite Murdoch doing everything he can to confuse people. I already see Liberal trolls peddling the lie that Labor will do nothing regarding the NBN. But that’s more to do with the organisation becoming more effective/professional than Shorten himself.
I want some for gifts myself! 🙂
US
To be fair to Shorten, he already has several well developed policies and with how this government has flopped, he really hasn’t had to stick his neck out too far.
Morning all. Cud I agree with your description of Abbott as fitting the definition of a psychopath. We think of them all as evil geniuses, but they do not have to be geniuses, so Abbott can still qualify. They have to have no empathy, and here Abbott qualifies in spades. He is either uncaring, or speaks in wooden terms with no emotion when he thinks he is supposed to be caring. So many times, from the budget welfare cuts to the end of the auto industry, he shows no regret at doing things that will harm others.
Yet he knows he has to look like he cares to win elections. So now he lauches Operation Compassion-tude, sending Peter Dutton to Geneva (what has Geneva ever done to us?). He wants to be seen to do something, taking more Syrian refugees. But it remains within the overall refugee quota of 13,000, meaning it will come at the expense of places for refugees from Afghanistan, Iraq, Eritrea etc.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-06/abbott-vows-australia-will-help-syria-refugees/6753220
Abbott says Australia takes more refugees per capita than any other country. Really? Australia is taking 13,000. Germany, with a population three times our size, will take 800,000 (60 times more). Sounds like their per capita rate of acceptances is more than twenty times ours.
At this point a christian might ask Abbott, “Who is thy neighbour”?
The SMH calls out Abbott on the lie about per capita refugee intake. We are not in the top 20.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/fact-and-fiction-with-prime-minister-tony-abbotts-refugee-intake-numbers-20150906-gjgc7q.html
That also ticks off the lies habitually box in Cuds list of symptoms. Have a good day all.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Well there you go! US RWNJs love out Tony. Well they can HAVE him!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/us-conservatives-like-abbotts-refugee-stance-20150906-gjg7ku.html
Paul Sheehan bangs the drum about prioritising Middle East Christians. Is he proposing the religious equivalent of the White Australia policy?
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/operation-rescue-the-christians-of-the-middle-east-face-extinction-20150906-gjg9p2.html
More on Abbott’s Cambodian refugee deal of the century.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/refugee-wants-to-quit-cambodia-following-australias-controversial-55million-deal-20150906-gjgg25.html
Gareth Hutchens justifiably calls out Abbott’s blatant BS over Australian refugee intake.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/fact-and-fiction-with-prime-minister-tony-abbotts-refugee-intake-numbers-20150906-gjgc7q.html
Michael Gordon parses Abbott’s comments on potentially increasing our refugee intake from Syria. He describes them as a “handbrake on compassion”.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/abbott-response-puts-a-handbrake-on-compassion-20150906-gjgbht.html
Europe welcomes – Abbott tinkers.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/09/06/abbott-extend-helping-hand-refugees-sleight-hand/
Ian Porter tells us who is to blame for our coming recession.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/automotive-transformation-scheme-cancellation-may-drive-the-economy-over-the-edge-20150904-gjfdsg.html
As parliament returns Labor is gearing up for al all out attack on Abbott.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/07/labor-gears-up-to-attack-abbotts-second-anniversary-as-parliament-returns
More on the scandal that is 7-Eleven. Adele Ferguson is going to chase this mongrel down.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/7eleven-reaps-millions-from-churning-franchisees-20150906-gjg6li.html
Well who would have thought that? The CPA has slammed Mr Eleventy’s famed “audit panel” over its evaluation of his 2013 election costings.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalition-auditor-for-2013-election-costings-breached-standards-20150905-gjfxwj.html
Section 2 . . .
Lenore Taylor reports on Abbott’s first two years of government.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/04/tony-abbotts-first-two-years-despite-the-daily-battles-hes-losing-the-war
And Dennis Altman says that two years in and even his supporters despair of Abbott’s feeble government.
https://theconversation.com/two-years-in-even-supporters-despair-of-abbotts-feeble-government-46797
Bob Ellis on Abbott’s act of kamikaze this past month.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/abbotts-act-of-kamikaze,8133
Naomi Klein says Abbott being a “climate criminal” is a boon for her book sales.
https://newmatilda.com/2015/09/06/climate-criminal-tony-abbott-best-marketing-possible-my-new-book-naomi-klein
George Williams puts it to us that the disquiet over Heydon’s role will be hard to dispel.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/disquet-over-heydons-role-difficult-to-dispell-20150906-gjg4tg.html
Phil Cleary asks how we can restore faith in our democracy.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/questioning-the-political-neutrality-of-judges-20150904-gjfhb4.html
“View from the Street’ covers several topics today.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-australia-to-accept-andor-bomb-syrian-refugees-20150906-gjgcw7.html
There are no new Fairfax cartoons up yet this morning.
Mark Knight kits out Abbott for the run home to the election.
David Rowe really gets into it here.
Bishop stirs the pot again….
A private conversation between Bishop & Abbott about Joe…leaked by Abbott ( or Credlin if she is part of Abbott’s private conversations ) ..
“I’m not going into private conversations I have with the prime minister in particular. If someone has leaked this story they didn’t get it from me, they didn’t get it from the prime minister, and I’m not going to add to the Canberra gossip,” she said in Perth.
I want to nominate a name for the Border Farce plush toy: Screw, the Pooch.
“Gossip” must be in Credlin’s talkingpoints for the day.
Hockey, when asked about the revelations of Jbish enouraging Abbott to dump Hockey, said on AM “i’m not responding to Gossip..” Lets see how many more rimes we hear that today.
Abbott / Howard strong security response cased the problem being faced in Europe today, that should be the FIRST topic discussed every single time Aboott has a press conference.
And the SmearStralian is doing it’s garbage bin sifting on Michael Lawler, finding amongst the smelly items the handwritten diary of a TURC officer.