ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

A new poll from ReachTEL is their third in a month to show Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that a ReachTEL poll on the Seven Network records Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, which is unchanged on ReachTEL polls conducted on both July 30 and August 6. Seven also reported that Bill Shorten was favoured over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister by 55-45 among men, compared with 56.0-44.0 in the previous ReachTEL poll, and 61-39 among women, effectively unchanged on the last poll’s result of 60.8-39.2. That appears to be all the information Seven provided, but hopefully the ReachTEL site will have full results soon.

UPDATE: Full results here. The primary votes are 40.3% for the Coalition (down 0.3%), 37.5% for Labor (down 0.5%), 13.4% for the Greens (up 0.5%) and 1.3% for Palmer United (down 0.1%), with the bracketed comparisons referring to the July 30 poll for Seven rather than the August 6 one for Fairfax.

The poll provides more evidence of an improvement in Bill Shorten’s standing, his good-plus-very good rating up from 19.6% to 23.4%, with poor-plus-very poor down from 45.9% to to 44.0%. Tony Abbott’s numbers are little changed at 26.0% (down 0.8%) and 53.8% (up 0.8%). Bill Shorten’s overall lead as preferred prime minister is 57.9-42.1, up from 55.1-44.9.

A question on preferred Liberal leader has Malcolm Turnbull on 43.5%, Julie Bishop on 22.8%, Tony Abbott on 21.4% and Scott Morrison on 12.4%. The last such question by ReachTEL was in its April 23 poll, but the results are not comparable as Joe Hockey has been dropped from the options list and replaced by Scott Morrison.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,496 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Jack @ 2343

    This is from Heydon’s written reasons (para 35):

    [The CFMEU and Counsel Assisting addressed the question whether the test which applied to judges also applied to Royal Commissioners. Counsel Assisting cited (written submissions para 13) and the CFMEU quoted (written submissions para 4) the following from the joint reasons of Kiefel, Bell, Keane and Nettle JJ in Isbester v Knox City Council (2015) 89 ALJR 609 at 614 [22]:
    It was observed in Ebner that the governing principle has been applied not only to the judicial system but also, by extension, to many other kinds of decision-making and decision-makers. It was accepted that the application of the principle to decision-makers other than judges must necessarily recognise and accommodate differences between court proceedings and other kinds of decision-making. The analogy with the curial process is less apposite the further divergence there is from the judicial paradigm. The content of the test for the decision in question may be different.]

    Heydon goes on to deal with a whole lot of other stuff, but the upshot is that the test is different, but how different depends on the specific type of proceeding, etc.

  2. [Hands up all those who think the last TWO YEARS have been good for the Coalition.]

    Tony Abbott told his party they have been two GREAT years.

    May the greatness continue I say.

  3. “@WhiteHouse: “This year…has to be the year that the world finally reaches an agreement to protect the one planet we’ve got while we still can.” —@POTUS”

  4. [ victoria

    Posted Tuesday, September 1, 2015 at 11:08 am | Permalink

    Tom Hawkins

    As Shorten said earlier. This govt blames everyone but themselves

    ]

    Dutton : At the end of the day, you are solely responsible for your success and your failure and not Fairfax or other media …and the sooner you realize that, you accept that, and integrate that into your work ethic, you might start being successful. As long as you blame others for the reason you aren’t where you want to be, you will always be a failure.

  5. Tom H @ 2350

    [I thought this was a government that would accept responsibility and not blame others for problems. That’s what Tone said.]

    Clearly, Tony is not responsible if you don’t hear correctly what he said. Just to set the record straight, what Tony actually said was:

    “This is a government that would not accept responsibility and would blame others for problems”.

    And you can’t say they haven’t delivered on that promise in spades.

  6. “@olliemilman: Barack Obama says the time to appease those who deny the science is over: “They are on their own shrinking island.””

  7. Did Obama just suggest that Abbott is not fit to lead?

    “Any leader which does not take this issue [climate change] seriously is not fit to lead.”

  8. [phoenix
    Posted Tuesday, September 1, 2015 at 10:56 am | PERMALINK
    Channel Nine has signed-up former Labor leader Mark Latham to be part of its new late-night panel show,

    Alongside Latham, Nine has locked-in former Liberal minister Amanda Vanstone, Topics slated for discussion for the pilot,

    which is expected to be hosted by Karl Stefanovic

    Straight away – 3 BIG reasons to not watch ….]

    I was actually looking forward to watching this show when I first heard about it. Now I wouldn’t waste my time.

    I hope it fails quickly.

  9. “@AustralianLabor: “Any so-called leader who doesn’t take this issue seriously or treats it like a joke is not fit to lead.” @BarackObama on climate change”

    RA we are not alone in our thinking 🙂

  10. Nothing’s really changed about all this since Day 1. Heydon accepted an invitation to speak at a liberal party function, dropped the idea abruptly under suspicious circumstances. Sitting in judgement of himself, he’s much better at slicing & dicing the law to provide a suitable outcome than anybody else.
    It’s the look.

    TPOF @ 2349
    Well said.

  11. For those with an interest in the property market it appears that interest rates are edging down independent of the RBA announcement today.

    The new lower rates are applying to new business. So, my assertion is that anyone that has a home loan and haven’t looked at it for awhile, now might be a good time to call a broker and see what you can get.

    ING announced a deal for 3.99% this morning.

    Get it while they are hot!

  12. guytaur @ 2367

    I immediately thought of Abbott too. Especially the line about treating climate change like a joke.

    Abbott can protest that he actually believes that climate change caused by humans is real. But it is impossible to conclude that he thinks it anything other than a joke when you look at Direct Action, including the pathetic cap on spending on the policy, his efforts to destroy the renewables industry, and his hysterical zeal for filling the world with carbon pollution via the sale of coal at any price.

  13. Huff Post Australia mocks Dutton by just quoting his own unhinged words:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2015/09/01/dutton-accuses-fairfax-of-jihad_n_8068182.html?utm_hp_ref=australia

    I love this quote:

    [“Hard to get a good story up in Fairfax. Publishing stories without checking with my office. Stories that are factually incorrect.”]

    Why would Fairfax bother checking with his office when his office does not even look at the official media releases from his own Border Farce?

  14. Government advertising: are the amounts spent on advertising with News Ltd v Fairfax available? I know that the circulation numbers would influence what a government ad would cost. I’m suspicious enough to think that this is an obvious way to curry favour with Murdoch … and a way to piss off Fairfax no end. Dutton is enough of a spud to come right out and say that any government advertising should be directed away from Fairfax because of their failure to laud the magnificent achievements of the Abbott regime.

  15. [Hard to get a good story up in Fairfax. Publishing stories without checking with my office. ]

    If he won’t get out of bed for 72 hours then he got what he deserved.

  16. [For those with an interest in the property market it appears that interest rates are edging down independent of the RBA announcement today.]

    GG, ANZ just raised our investment loan rate. I make no further comment .. Just makes me angry.

  17. for those interested, the main pictures on the Oz website alternate between photos of an exploded ruin and the other one is the Palmyra site

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/

    (you might need to be quick before this changes – the photos are alternating between Latham and Palmyra). Latham is to get a show on channel 9. This will make the Mick Malloy show experiment look classy (remember the urinating on the couch incident?)

  18. [2364
    mexicanbeemer

    If I had to say anything positive about this government

    -The medical research fund]

    Let’s wait and see the details & practice of that non-peer reviewed scheme, shall we.

    My bet is that it will be nothing more than a huge slush fund for the government to curry favour with the spivocracy, and the end result will be that we throw away billions and our solid reputation for genuinely useful medical research will go down the toilet.

  19. nappin,

    I’m talking specifically about owner occupied where the rates are sliding.

    APRA has forced all the Banks to increase investment property rates by around .3% in recent weeks. They’ve also reduced the proportion of the property value they will lend, increased the hurdle rates and a couple have exited the market for the time being because their loan books were too highly geared.

    It’s easy to blame the Banks here. But, the regulator has a gun at their heads in their attempts to slow down the growth in the market.

  20. [ trand

    Posted Tuesday, September 1, 2015 at 11:54 am | Permalink

    Essential 52-48

    ]

    Two Party Preferred: 1 September 2015

    Labor 52 (+1)

    Coalition 48 (-1)

  21. GG @ 2378

    [Does anyone else remember Dutton’s outrage over News trying to bring the previous Labor Government down? Neither can I.]

    That’s because News was so outrageous, the government had changed before Dutton overcame his shock.

  22. [ “@danielhurstbne: “There is a bit of a jihad being conducted by Fairfax at the moment” – Dutton doubles down on his criticism, in Sky News interview” ]

    Oh piss off, Spudface.

    The only jihad being conducted in Australia is the one being run by your ‘government’ against our whole society and anything vaguely resembling sanity and decency.

  23. It’s not hard to work out Tony’s game plan for the next election. He is going to run hard on union corruption and their connection to Labor.

    Heydon ruling himself unbiased in the eyes of a reasonable person has laid the ground work. Why did they try, unsuccessfully, to smear this honourable man? What have Labor and the unions got to hide?

    “When he released his 1800-page interim report in December last year, Mr Heydon said the 87-page third volume needed to remain secret to “protect the physical well-being of those witnesses [appearing at the commission] and their families. This is unfortunate, because the confidential volume reveals grave threats to the power and authority of the Australian state“.

    If it is a secret one wonders why he makes such a public comment on it. Don’t you just stamp it confidential without such hyperbolic description? And if it is so explosive, why has nothing been done about it for 9 months?”

    Well worth a read: http://theaimn.com/corruption-kickbacks-and-slush-funds-see-icac/#comments

  24. It’s not hard to work out Tony’s game plan for the next election. He is going to run hard on union corruption and their connection to Labor.

    Heydon ruling himself unbiased in the eyes of a reasonable person has laid the ground work. Why did they try, unsuccessfully, to smear this honourable man? What have Labor and the unions got to hide?

    “When he released his 1800-page interim report in December last year, Mr Heydon said the 87-page third volume needed to remain secret to “protect the physical well-being of those witnesses [appearing at the commission] and their families. This is unfortunate, because the confidential volume reveals grave threats to the power and authority of the Australian state“.

    If it is a secret one wonders why he makes such a public comment on it. Don’t you just stamp it confidential without such hyperbolic description? And if it is so explosive, why has nothing been done about it for 9 months?”

    Well worth a read: http://theaimn.com/corruption-kickbacks-and-slush-funds-see-icac/#comments

  25. [It’s easy to blame the Banks here. But, the regulator has a gun at their heads in their attempts to slow down the growth in the market.]

    That’s only part of the story.

    The other part is the market-driven growth in CDS prices. Predominantly overseas investors see increasing risk in investing in our banks.

    And who can blame them, as the current account deficit increased $5,532m (41 per cent) to $19,033m in the June quarter 2015.

    APRA a trying to get the banks to get ahead of the game, rather than letting them rely on the implicit and explicit Goverment guarantees on their solvency.

  26. [It’s not hard to work out Tony’s game plan for the next election.]

    Labor debt and deficit – we stopped the boats – corrupt union bosses – want to bring back the carbon tax.

    I think that about covers it.

  27. [TPOF, Itep, can you find me a case where a judge reviewing an RC (or a C of I) says this? I’m not an expert on the bias cases, so I’m not saying there isn’t one – just seeking info]

    I’ve had a look, and the best I can find is the Duncan v Ipp case relating to ICAC, which involved apprehended bias:

    http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/nsw/NSWSC/2013/314.html

    Slightly different given it’s in a statutory context, but Hoeben CJ, citing McGovern v Ku-ring-gai Council, does seem to say that the standards applied to commission of inquiry may be different to a judicial context.

    I don’t think it’s really that important given I don’t think apprehended bias can be made out in any case.

  28. Growler re interest rates

    The new regulatory regime is very harsh on investment loans while being quite kind to owner occupiers.

    There’s been a bifurcation in the market… But yes, if you have a solid deposit you can get a great rate as an Owner Occupier.

    The market is also still pricing a cash rate to fall by year end. I’m not entirely convinced it will be able to do so that quickly.

  29. RA

    Considering Glenn Stevens previous comments in which he has indicated concern about a sub 2% cash rate and that there would have to be a crisis to go there, leaves me to think we are at the bottom of the rate cycle.

    I think our market has become or is threatening to become addicted to central banks and stimulus rather than real world economic activity.

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