A ReachTEL automated phone poll in the Sunday Fairfax papers is another 53-47 result, with primary votes of 40.2% for the Coalition, 38.3% for Labor and 12.8% for the Greens. These results are all but identical to a ReachTEL poll conducted for the Seven Network a week ago, with none of the primary vote changes amounting to more than 0.4%. An all-or-nothing choice of preferred prime minister, with no uncommitted option, records a 58.5-41.5 lead for Bill Shorten over Tony Abbott, up from 55.1-44.9 in the Seven Network poll. Both leaders are found to be in third place as best leader for their party, which for Labor runs 40.1% Anthony Albanese, 34.9% Tanya Plibersek and 25.0% for Bill Shorten, and for the Liberals goes 45.4% Malcolm Turnbull, 24.4% Julie Bishop, 18.9% Tony Abbott and 11.4% Scott Morrison. All we have to go on at this point is this photo of the hard copy, so it’s not yet clear when the poll was conducted or how big the sample size was.
UPDATE: The report in The Age establishes that the poll was conducted on Thursday night from a sample of 2534. I’m anticipating another four polls over the coming days UPDATE: Sorry, make that three.
@bemused/388
It must be nice to cherry pick figures.
1. You are cherry picking pricing ACCC figures depend on the type of Fuel for a start, and you have to “shop around” to get the best deal, the amount of time wasted would be lost in dollars.
2. Prices would be cheaper if fuel wasn’t taxed or taxed less, including a fuel levy.
3. Brisbane prices rising, while Sydney is falling, is this due to the high prices of housing in Sydney? Brisbane offsetting fuel prices so Sydney can benefit?
Oakeshott Country@398
Victoria, under the mad ideology of Kennettism, introduced the same split with the non-emergency component now a number of competing private sector providers.
I question the wisdom of it as the non-emergency component is little more than a glorified taxi service and cannot step in if an emergency ambulance is required and all such ambulances are busy.
Mathematics suggest one service is more efficient.
zoidlord@401
WOW… so much fuzzy logic in that I don’t know where to start.
1. You can track price movements on the ACCC site.
2. Yeah, right, lets abolish all tax and make everything cheaper.
3. Nothing to do with housing prices, everything to do with the artificial ‘price cycles’ as the ACCC site documents.
daretotread@354
Or Marula fruit:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2610540/Trunk-disorderly-Tipsy-elephants-stagger-South-African-park.html
From a Herald Sun federal politics reporter. Expect that means the Newspoll will come out tonight, not tomorrow night.
https://twitter.com/rharris334/status/630296604168159232
Don
Love it!
Malcolm Farr mentioned in that news.com.au article an Ipsos was due
would this mean this is likely on top of the reachtel or might he be speculating like the rest of us?
LL@405: When the Newscorpse PC hacks start taking the piss, one can bet that the Rupert isn’t pleased with his purchase. How many vultures can the string that holds up Toady’s Budgie Smugglers take?
A 55/45 in Newspoll would be a lovely present for Abbott’s return to parliament
I imagine Ipsos will be out tonight as it usually is published Sunday, so wouldn’t Newspoll hold off until tomorrow?
Clearly you’d expect the polling respondents are going to punish the Govt this week.
It would be a good opportunity for Bill Shorten to drop a policy of substance to capitalise on the Govt’s very poor showing.
I was thinking they may have released them on schedule as tomorrow will be used for condolence motions
confessions – in the old days Nielsen & Newspoll were often deliberately run so as not to clash on the same week, but now it appears to be a race to get Newspoll & Ipsos out on the same supposedly crucial days, or least they don’t seem to care about that clash any more.
Leroy:
You’re probably right. Plus I guess with parliament resuming tomorrow it makes sense for both polls to come out in the Monday papers and news.
The media does not care about condolence motions, just parliament resitting. If the poll is actually ready & collated to be ready for Monday (sometimes an issue) it will be released. The motivation for the media to stage polls to coincide with the MPs return to Canberra is the same as a kid walking up to a wasp nest, wacking it with a stick, then running away. Its just to stir them up & cause trouble.
Rex Douglas @411:
He’s done so many times – the problem is getting the MSM to “notice” that he’s done so, between griping about his lack of substance of course.
It’s curious why Fairfax commissioned the Reachtel poll to be released two days before the Ipsos poll is supposedly due. If the two polls we’re significantly different, wouldn’t that create a problem for the Fairfax political journos in writing commentary?
Is Fairfax perhaps not going to keep Ipsos? Its cost must be significantly higher than the automated Reachtel and Fairfax has limited financial resources.
When the first Ipsos came out a few months ago, it was release around 8.30 pm on a Sunday night
The 54/46 got so much commentary, that Murdoch released a desultory NewsPoll after midnight on the Sunday of 52/48 with a Shanahan lead of how bad it was for Bill Shorten.
Expect the same tonight
@bemused/403
Wow such “so much fuzzy logic” selective argument to support your defense of using ACCC as a guide – after all they are the same guide to allowing Telstra to be the behemoth today.
1. Track price movements – yeah, Fuel-watch fiasco anyone? Also not likely real-time – most likely changed by the time it’s been put up on the website.
2. I noticed you just used “All Taxes” so there for you just brushed over the entirely of the post.
So much trust in the ACCC you have 😛
If anyone is prepared to hold their nose and tune in…
Strange, but true….
http://i100.io/aDvOfgI
sprocket_
The Australian government is proposing banning the sale of Vegemite..
What next, ban baking bread or home made pizza dough?
….Banning Vegemite? Does the Government want a rebellion or something? Jeesh, talk about the nanny-state – everywhere except the big end of town!
“‘Addiction of any type is a concern but communities, especially where alcohol is banned, must work to ensure home brewing of this type does not occur,’ Indigenous Affairs Minister Nigel Scullion said.
‘Businesses in these communities also have a responsibility to report any purchase that may raise their own suspicions.’
But the government wasn’t seeking to place any restrictions on the sale of the spread, he said.”
Media beatup.
Wonder what our Freedom Commissioner has to say about this. Heads will surely explode at the IPA!
So much for cutting red tape and regulation.
sprocket_@418
So are you saying that the NewsPoll was fake?
And you expect a fake NewsPoll again?
That’s a serious charge. What do you have to back it up?
sprocket_
What a load of bollocks. A bag of sugar and a packet of yeast and bingo. How much would a kilo of that cost compared to vegemite ?
Monty Burns says “Release the hounds” . Just before the polls and the return of parliament Tones has said “Release the unicorn” . What with the poor blighter is down to the last of what was once a thundering herd of unicorns. The rest succumbed to over work.
@dave/426
It’s only cutting red tape and regulation for certain lobbyists who donated to them.
Its why Carbon Tax and MRRT got cut 😛
don – I think the claim is that when Newspoll doesn’t support the narrative Murdoch’s minions want to promote, they push it back so it gets lost in the next day’s media wash.
When it does, it’s pushed to the front of the Monday headlines and leaked so that everyone gets the reactionaries in Sunday night and it can start setting the agenda on Monday.
poroti:
I think it was MTBW who said it earlier, but I agree with her that the govt have lost the plot.
We’re truly in bizarro territory these days.
Drewski, you’re gonna cop the wrath of William for thinking that, let alone saying it.
Don
I’m not saying NewsPoll is an instrument of Murdoch’s media and political hegemony, although it is.
All I’m saying is that NewsPoll can and has been released strategically to coincide with the carefully orchestrated Murdoch/Liberal campaign timing, or as in the case I cited, released after midnight a day early to counter a competitor’s product.
Nick off Rex.
Obamas recent job approve/disapprove polls are around -6. I was surprised, then checked the congress approval polling… -60!
Fulvio – not saying I agree with it! It’s all hypothetical. While William’s looking, anyway.
Seriously though, I think it is important to draw a distinction between outright fabrication of poll results – an extraordinary claim which would require extraordinary evidence – and simply adjusting the timing of poll releases for maximum impact, whether or not that’s political impact or simply commercial impact for the media organisation involved.
sprocket_@434
Say what?
And while I’m on media/PMO conspiracies, just altitude,too cute today to have the Vegemite story planted, and then Abbott surfaces in some suburban football ground in Brisbane where he took questions from the “local media”
The 3rd and 4th question were detailed ones about Vegemite – which Abbott said “I don’t know much about that, leave it to those who know, but…..”
And his carefully scripted responses were:
– trials of WelfareCard are designed to have 80% of income spent on good things
– he could “assure us” that there would be no Vegemite Watch
And then he walked off.
Newspoll stinker for Government
Nooooo. Leave Tony alone …!
He got an easy run on ABC TV News, Sydney tonight from Uhlmann.
Looked like an Infomercial for the tories.
All it needed was the family abbott there as well.
Simkins the smurker in the background but on camera at the Surf to City run footage.
Mates rates?
Jeff Kitsonjulk@440
Speculation or fact ?
Fact
Previously Newspoll has been released on a Sunday, before the first sitting day.
IPsos so far has always come out on a Sunday night.
Possibly the fairfax Reachtel poll was commissioned by the weekend ‘tabloids ‘ where Ipsos is done for the Monday ‘broadsheets’
I think both will come out tonight.
We might need to get onto change.org Fulvio. Do they have an equivalent nochange.org.
Please stay where you are Tones. You gotta fight for your right to PM Tony.
sprocket_ – a well run campaign. Local icon, scare story about Indigenous alcoholism, nice way to work in “tough on welfare” and absolutely no intention (or, for that matter, requirement) to do anything.
Couldn’t ask for better.
So do I, but only because we got parliament tomorrow, and with the media commentary now focusing on our besieged PM and how bad things are for him. A bad poll for the govt just adds to all the atmospherics.
Time to bring back #ImstickingwithTony?
What is fact, Jeff ?