ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

A new ReachTEL poll for the Fairfax papers is almost identical to one conducted last week for the Seven Network on voting intention, but gives Bill Shorten a greater lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll in the Sunday Fairfax papers is another 53-47 result, with primary votes of 40.2% for the Coalition, 38.3% for Labor and 12.8% for the Greens. These results are all but identical to a ReachTEL poll conducted for the Seven Network a week ago, with none of the primary vote changes amounting to more than 0.4%. An all-or-nothing choice of preferred prime minister, with no uncommitted option, records a 58.5-41.5 lead for Bill Shorten over Tony Abbott, up from 55.1-44.9 in the Seven Network poll. Both leaders are found to be in third place as best leader for their party, which for Labor runs 40.1% Anthony Albanese, 34.9% Tanya Plibersek and 25.0% for Bill Shorten, and for the Liberals goes 45.4% Malcolm Turnbull, 24.4% Julie Bishop, 18.9% Tony Abbott and 11.4% Scott Morrison. All we have to go on at this point is this photo of the hard copy, so it’s not yet clear when the poll was conducted or how big the sample size was.

UPDATE: The report in The Age establishes that the poll was conducted on Thursday night from a sample of 2534. I’m anticipating another four polls over the coming days UPDATE: Sorry, make that three.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

530 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 8 of 11
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  1. citizen@348

    On the subject of brewing alcohol from everyday foods – one time we were asked by a ‘prisoners aid’ charity to bake biscuits that were distributed to prisoners. One rule was that the biscuits could not contain dried fruit as it could be removed and used to brew alcohol.

    I recall my father mentioning his colleagues brewing ‘jungle juice’ while he was o/s in the RAAF. Just mentioned in passing and no details sought or offered.

    I believe similar was made in POW camps.

  2. Question at 219

    I think its strange that many Lib voters seem to dislike Turnbull because he is not unpopular with centre-left voters. Its quite a distorted way of thinking really, its like saying “we don’t like our guy because you like him.”

  3. Bemused
    One of the very best things Beattie did in qld was to provide 100% ambulance cover.

    We pay a levy with our ELECTRICITY bill.

  4. DTT @354

    Exactly! Pretty much any sugar source left laying around will become ferment. Yeast are present on the surface of fruit, so just mash up some fruit and leave it in a bucket. You’ll end up with an alcoholic drink. Is the government going to ban fresh fruit from remote communities too? (Don’t answer that, lol)

  5. daretotread

    I am pretty sure Newman canned the ambulance levy on electricity bills when he came to power. Qld had a subscription service up until about 2004 when the levy replaced it.

  6. blackburnpseph@355

    It is possible to skirt around Pakistan.


    Iran to India? How so? Have you looked at a map?

    From a map, via Afghanistan and maybe Tajikistan into Jammu & Kashmir. The fly in the ointment is where is the ‘line of control’ in Jammu & Kashmir?

    If that is a barrier, a short distance through China is an alternative.

    Not sure of the terrain, it may be difficult, but not impossible.

  7. MTBW at 255

    So Abbott won’t stop the Speaker from attending party room meetings. Just showsbhe hasn’t learned a thing out of this mess.

  8. Only Tasmania and Queensland have free to users amublance services (ie. it’s paid for by levies or general revenue).

    In all other states and territories you are charged the cost of the service after using it, and if you don’t have some form of cover or insurance you’ll have to pay. Although there’s usually exemptions for pensioners etc.

  9. In SA you join the ambulance fund and pay a subscription. I would prefer a levy that covers everyone.

  10. i have great respect for Annastacia Paladzczuk, but she really needs to back down on the 1am lockout laws. Its against basic human rights.

  11. So if someone collapses in Victoria and some other states, and you call an ambulance, you may be gifting them a hefty bill.

    I have been in such a situation when I saw a man collapse in the street and appear to strike his head on a brick fence. I called an ambulance and managed his condition until it arrived. Cops thought I was a doctor. 😆

  12. Not sure of the terrain, it may be difficult, but not impossible.

    Just a series of small mountain ranges – Himalayas, Hindi Kush. Can’t imagine also that India would want to be held to ransom by China in such a scenario. After all Sino – Indian relations have never been that flash.

  13. blackburnpseph@366

    Not sure of the terrain, it may be difficult, but not impossible.


    Just a series of small mountain ranges – Himalayas, Hindi Kush. Can’t imagine also that India would want to be held to ransom by China in such a scenario. After all Sino – Indian relations have never been that flash.

    Hedge the bet by splitting the pipeline with one fork via Pakistan and the other through China for a short distance.

    Relations have thawed somewhat between India and China.

  14. There has been some very interesting research done on ambulance costs and usage. A very small number of people use a huge % of the ambo budget – and most of that is totally unnecessary – ambos being called for trivial or non-existant reasons etc. A counselling program was put in place and yielded very sizable cost benefits and of course meant that resources could be placed where they should be going – to emergency cases.

  15. Apparently Tony Abbott was at a fund raising run in Sydney, I wonder if he used Tax payer benefits to get there and back?

  16. blackburnpseph@368

    There has been some very interesting research done on ambulance costs and usage. A very small number of people use a huge % of the ambo budget – and most of that is totally unnecessary – ambos being called for trivial or non-existant reasons etc. A counselling program was put in place and yielded very sizable cost benefits and of course meant that resources could be placed where they should be going – to emergency cases.

    Yes, people have called ambulances for all sorts of trivial reasons.
    But then Nurse on Call and other sources of advice seem pretty keen on despatching ambulances.

  17. But then Nurse on Call and other sources of advice seem pretty keen on despatching ambulances.

    Liability, Liability, Liability!!!

  18. BBS

    The worst of ambulances is when you are NOT at an address, when they are damned near useless. Like that kid in the mountains that they decided was a hoax.

    Had a horrid experience 6-7 years ago. Watched a suicide as I was driving along a road. tried to ring ambulance but they kept asking my street which i did not know – had to run quite a way to see a street sign. told them to just send the ambulance and I could give them directions – it was near a big landmark. no joy.

    They hung up or I did and then it took about 4 more calls to get through. Meanwhile my son was trying to comfort the still living guy.

    The next day they rang to apologise to me. They said that their call centre should have been able to tell from my tone of voice I was not a hoaxer – which i think was pretty well right. it left a really nasty taste in my mouth.

  19. But then Nurse on Call and other sources of advice seem pretty keen on despatching ambulances.

    Excellent point. Although I have found the Health Direct helpful and not always advising an ambulance.

    If only there was a midway option between ambulance/ER and waiting till 9am the next day for the doctors to open. With medical clinics having a dozen doctors or more on their list I wonder why they are not open more than 5.5 days a week.

  20. There is also a lot of hydro energy waiting to be opened up in Kyrgyzstan.

    Getting it through the Tian Shan and then the Karakoram in some of the most inhospitable terrain would be an achievement.

    About as likely as getting a train line to Tibet 😉

  21. Daretotread

    Had a similar (but not so awful as yours) experience some years ago when reporting a fire that I saw when I walking to the station. I was standing under the street signs – but they kept telling me that there were no streets of that name in the suburb I was in. I had to get them to read out the name of every suburb in Melbourne with a street of that name until I got a plausible fit. Fireys came every quickly then.

  22. Simon

    Some areas in Melbourne have special after hours GP clinics until about 11pm. Not cheap but beats waiting for hours in a Casualty department.

  23. The real problem facing ambulance services is time spent ramping at hospital A&E. An hours wait is usual, often in SE Qld can be well over an hour.

    Ambulances responding to trivial complaints increases this situation. An ambulance will respond to anyone ringing 000, no matter how inappropriate ie toothache, hangover, broken finger etc causing the ambulance to have to wait with the patient on the hospital ramp while genuine cases get precedence at hospital; thereby backing up ambulance response time.

  24. From news.com.au

    AT 10AM on Monday, Tony Abbott will attempt to overcome one of the most scarring episodes of his prime ministership when the House of Representatives meets to elect a new Speaker.
    It will be just one of a series of important events and decisions confronting him after a seven-week parliamentary break that was no holiday for the Prime Minister.
    Mr Abbott and other political leaders also will hope to overcome the odium of big expense claims, which might not have breached rules the MPs themselves drew up but which have angered voters.
    They will know of this anger clearly enough with two major opinion polls greeting MPs on their return to Canberra — a delayed Newspoll in The Australian and the Ipsos-Fairfax poll.

  25. Blackburnpseph

    Some areas in Melbourne have special after hours GP clinics

    There are some in Adelaide too. Nowhere near me tho.

    Its very hard to tell whats an emergency at 2am when its your 2yo child. Healthdirect has been good wrt this.

  26. I knew a patient who would use ambulances as a super fast free taxi service. She would ring up saying she had chest pain, get rushed into the RAH which is in town and then discharge herself to go shopping.

    They changed the rules after they got fed up with her.

  27. Diog

    a friend of mine used to work at the hospital in Whyalla. There was some mystification, because the children’s ward would fill up very quickly on a Friday night. Turned out that parents were using it as a child minding service so that they could do some shopping in Adelaide.

  28. It will be just one of a series of important events and decisions confronting him after a seven-week parliamentary break that was no holiday for the Prime Minister.

    What a difference 7 weeks means. When parliament rose 2 months ago the commentariat told us the govt was on the front foot, with Abbott having finished that session strongly.

  29. What rule did they implement to stop her?

    They changed the rules so you could only get five “free” ambulance trips in a year.

  30. zoidlord@386

    Petrol prices going up:
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/petrol–why-isnt-the-price-falling-with-oil-20150809-giuzq9.html

    zoid, I know facts aren’t your thing, but I suggest you check out this site. http://www.accc.gov.au/consumers/petrol-diesel-lpg/petrol-price-cycles

    Prices in Sydney & Adelaide around the bottom of the cycle, going up in Brisbane, around the top of the cycle in Melbourne.

    Lower international oil prices countered by falls in AUD.

  31. Diog

    Was the woman perhaps a distant relative of Bronnie? I can’t even begin to imagine using an ambulance service in that way.

  32. @PeterKReith It’s about time the public had an injection of economic reality, & if the loss of a few thousand jobs is the price. so be it

    This follows the usual crap philosophy of the Neo Liberals & the Reserve Bank.

    In the Reserve Banks case it’s put up intrest rates to create unemployment to reduce inflation… dull & blunt.

  33. I have great respect for Annastacia Paladzczuk, but she really needs to back down on the 1am lockout laws. Its against basic human rights.

    Nobody has an absolute right to get pissed out of their minds and consume the time of health care staff.

  34. zoid

    The oil companies get away with anything they choose and they need to be investigated.

    They are rorting the system.

  35. lizzie@389

    Diog

    Was the woman perhaps a distant relative of Bronnie? I can’t even begin to imagine using an ambulance service in that way.

    When I was at the Monash Medical Centre, the helicopter air-ambulance landed and the paramedics who had delivered me wehnt out to watch. When they came back in and said what they had been doing, I asked if they were sure it wasn’t Bronnie dropping in for a visit? Well, the place almost exploded with denunciations of Bronnie by all the staff there.

    The present 2PP in no way reflects the deep seated hatred of this govt and its personalities.

  36. WA Labor leader Mark McGowan said governments had an important role in facilitating collaboration with new markets in Asia to create trade opportunities in areas such as education, health and tourism.

    He said WA should capitalise on the expertise it developed during the resources boom in areas like energy storage, renewable energy, advanced robotics and automation.

    The paper recommends the creation of a whole-of-government Asian engagement strategy to guide economic diversification and create jobs, as well as a minister for Asian engagement.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/29219319/wa-needs-stronger-ties-to-asia-labor/

    The opposition has been quiet lately so it’s good to see some blue sky type thinking emerging.

  37. NSW has attempted to improve ambulance efficiency by splitting it into two – a non emergency patient transport (NEPT) and an acute service. A disproportionate amount of resources has gone to the acute service which has lead to difficulty in getting patients out of hospital which has added to bed block and ramping of the acute ambulances.
    But this winter and flu season has been particularly harsh after 2 relatively mild years and this is the major cause of the current crisis.
    There is also a political issue as the Ambos under Gerard Hayes ( a man with an interesting history in the NSW right) are involved in an industrial dispute are very keen to promote the image of a service in crisis.

  38. 387

    So she could still have NYE “chest pains” quite safely then (presuming calendar years rather than financial years were used for the calculation of the 5 trips).

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