BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The government’s position weakens further in the latest weekly poll aggregate reading, as two new polls find a surge in support for the Greens.

The two-party preferred reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has ticked 0.5% in Labor’s favour for the second week in the row, on the back of a solid improvement for them in the latest fortnightly Morgan result, and a smaller shift on the weekly Essential Research numbers. In fact, the outstanding feature of both polls was the best result in years for the Greens, such that both major parties are little changed on the primary vote, and Labor’s two-party preferred improvement is received second-hand as preferences. Labor is back in majority government territory on the seat projection, thanks to single-seat gains in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania.

There is also a new set of leadership ratings courtesy of last week’s small-sample Morgan phone poll, which I now see I neglected to link to, but you can read all about here and here. The BludgerTrack tables show how the results have changed since “last week”, but since the poll was conducted last Monday to Wednesday, it might be better understood as a revised reading of the previous result than a current state of play. In particular, if the Labor national conference made any change to Bill Shorten’s position for better or worse, this poll will not have captured it. In any case, the result adds incrementally to the headlong plunges of both leaders on net approval, but doesn’t make much difference to preferred prime minister.

Otherwise:

• Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports that a preselection challenge against Teresa Gambaro, the LNP member for the federal seat of Brisbane, has been called off after the intervention of Tony Abbott – which would seem to be rather big of him, as Gambaro had been one of his most vocal critics. The putative challenger was Trevor Evans, chief executive of the National Retail Association and chief-of-staff and campaign director to Peter Dutton during 2010, who was said by an LNP source quoted by Atfield to have “had the numbers”. Not only has Evans been persuaded not to run, he will also serve as Gambaro’s campaign manager.

• The winner of a Tasmanian Greens vote to choose a Senate successor to Christine Milne will be announced today, and the Launceston Examiner for one deems that the party’s former state leader, Nick McKim, is “heavily favoured” to emerge the winner from a field of about ten. Milne has not yet set a date for her departure, but in the final week of the last parliamentary sitting she gave what she said was to be her final Senate speech, so presumably it will be soon. The Greens preselection process has been covered in very great detail by local observer Kevin Bonham.

• Two dubious claims of internal polling to relate, if only because I didn’t want the above items to look lonely. Speaking on Sky News earlier this month, Victorian Liberal Party state president Michael Kroger claimed that “current polling” had support for Jacqui Lambie in Tasmania in the low twenties. The CFMEU also claims polling it has conducted finds a “Nick Xenophon-backed candidate” in Christopher Pyne’s Adelaide seat of Sturt would poll 38% of the primary vote, compared with 30.8% for Pyne and 17.4% for Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

968 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  2. This is a good example why people buy books over the Internet from abroad. Note that the publisher Harper Collins is a subsidiary of Murdoch’s News Corp.

    [A newly discovered book by the prolific children’s author Dr Seuss has hit US bookshops, two decades after his death. What Pet Should I Get? is believed to have been written by Dr Seuss, born Theodor Seuss Geisel, between 1958 and 1962…

    On its first day the book became the number one best-selling book on Amazon, outstripping Harper Lee’s Go Set a Watchman…

    Australian fans of Dr Seuss will have a wait to buy the book from a local bookstore — publisher HarperCollins says the release date is still to be confirmed.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-29/dr-seuss-what-pet-should-i-get-not-for-sale-here-just-yet/6658170

  3. Gary @90..

    “Bronnie has admitted wrong doing..”

    Actually, no she hasn’t. Even this am she prefaced her “apology” by stating that her claims under scrutiny were: “technically within the rules..”

    No admission of wrong-doing at all..

  4. I look forward to Mr Abbott shirtfronting Mrs Bishop …

    …the tinkle of broken hair, the clackity clack of teeth, the rictus grin rolling across the floor…

  5. “@MelissaLDavey: Just rang Bronwyn Bishop’s press office who refused to give me details of her public duties and engagements in regional Victoria today. 1/2”

    “@MelissaLDavey: 2/2 Now it appears Bishop has only invited select media along to the presser, and has refused to tell Guardian Australia her whereabouts.”

  6. Re.confessions and lizzies comments

    I don’t think this government does much.
    I found it revealing that the complaint by the ministers about choppergate was that it
    [let Shorten off the hook
    ]
    This mob are more interested in attacking Labor than governing.
    Also precisely what hook is Shorten on?

  7. Abbott will get rolled shortly after Parliament resumes – unless there is a terrorist attack in the heart of Sydney, or Shorten is caught in flagrante delicto with a goat on the steps of parliament house.

    The problem for Coalition backbenchers goes beyond the polls, it goes to the complete lack of policy options of the Abbott government. Abbott has them backed into a policy corner, and the only way to fix this is with a policy reset.

    The only way to achieve a credible policy reset is with a change of leader. Given the renewable RET fiasco their best option is going to be Turnbull.

    The Bronwyn Bishop issue will be the trigger for a leadership change, but not the main reason.

  9. TS

    Not just a change to RET with Turnbull. It will be a change on SSM. This is why the reluctance to change. It is the conservative right wing reactionaries holding the line in the face of the obvious disaster they are facing.

  12. Boerwar

    Posted Wednesday, July 29, 2015 at 5:20 pm | PERMALINK

    [So, the Turks are bombing our allies, the PKK in Iraq.]

    [But it is OK because they are letting the US use a Turkish airfield to bomb ISIS.]

    [And the Turks are now killing ISIS fighters as well.]

    [You would have to be stark staring crazy to be pissing away $1.5 billion on this stuff…]

    [Oh, wait…]

    Oh wait indeed…

    On Monday, you said this;

    [The West is increasingly peripheral to this one]

    So which is it? Are we increasingly on the periphery, or up to our necks in shit?

    Perhaps you should stick with amateur analysis of the Greek fiscal crisis and leave Mid-East geopolitics to those more qualified.

  15. guytaur@100

    No doubt Slipper, Thomson, Gillard and Shorten would be pleased to hear that there are no crooks in parliament.

  16. [“@MelissaLDavey: 2/2 Now it appears Bishop has only invited select media along to the presser, and has refused to tell Guardian Australia her whereabouts.”]

    It must be a very select group of media. There would be very few journos supporting Bronnie at the moment.

    This might spawn a new board game – “Where’s Bronnie”.

  17. [Leaked #TPP negotiations threaten to forcibly commercialise state-owned bodies incl. ABC, SBS, ]

    What!!!???

    Robb using TPP to bring IPA wishlist into effecct???

  18. guytaur

    Posted Thursday, July 30, 2015 at 10:33 am | PERMALINK

    [@rharris334: Bronwyn Bishop currently apologising again to the good burgers of Gippsland.]

    With cheese?

  21. Cecil update.

    The public shaming of the ‘hunter’ Walter J. Palmer will be a salutary lesson for anyone contemplating a safari to murder African native species – legally or not.

    This guy is going to lose everything – his dental practise, the remnants of his respect, possibly his family.
    His own life may well be at risk.

    Cecil’s sacrifice may not have been in vain.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/30/us/cecil-the-lion-walter-palmer.html

  26. bu

    [On Monday, you said this;

    The West is increasingly peripheral to this one

    So which is it? Are we increasingly on the periphery, or up to our necks in shit?]

    Both, you dill.

  27. “@latikambourke: Speaker Bronwyn Bishop I can say against this morning that I am so apologetic to the Australian people for letting them down.”

    “@latikambourke: Speaker Bronwyn Bishop on possibly Wilkie-Palmer no-confidence motion: “They’re entitled to do that.””

    “@latikambourke: “I love this country very much and I feel very saddened that I have let them down.” “This is a genuine apology” Bronwyn Bishop.”

  32. Trog

    I read today that Cecil’s death will result in much jockeying for head of the Pride, and other males will die in the fights. So one death has reverberations.

  36. I do hope that the internet vigilantes who are doing the Cecil blowback thing realize that if they manage to kill off the big game killing tourism side of things, then conservation in Africa will take a giant backwards step.

    Lots and lots of biodiversity gets to share the habitat that is held aside so that the big five can get slaughtered.

    Get onto Google and check out the land use patterns in, say, Kenya. The farmed areas are devoid of habitat. The tourist areas have habitat.

    It is how it goes.

    But my guess is that the vigilantes are the usual small-minded petty dictators who try to run the world by way of personal and vindictive short-sighted and self-satisfied revenge.

    It is a bit like the bastards who booed Goodes out of the Saturday game.

    They do not ‘do’ complexity.

  38. Nothing but puke worthy:

    ABC News ‏@abcnews 52m52 minutes ago

    .@TonyAbbottMHR praises coal, iron ore & gas for driving Asia Pacific ‘economic miracle’, says #TPP “nothing to fear”

    And battle rages on:

    Delimiter ‏@delimiterau 3m3 minutes ago

    Telcos seek data retention extension to avoid legal action: http://j.mp/1ODfpOb

  40. Re Goodes.
    The AFL should get tough and do to clubs with boo-ing fans that which the Football Association (FA) did to clubs with fans who did that. They made them play to empty stands. Either their supporters behaved themselves or the clubs lost the revenue from attendence sales, and fans were denied access to live games.

    You cannot pussyfoot about with racism, you have to come down with a sledgehammer if you do not want to surrender your code to racists and troublemakers. The AFL should be talking to the FA. The FA has been there and done that, in spades.

  41. lizzie

    Yes it’s sad. But at least it has exposed the myth that canned hunting somehow provides funds for wildlife conservation. Only a very small part of the fees for this type of hunting actually feed thru to the local population or the parks. There is a lot more money in charging visitors to the parks to observe the animals.

    The force of this public shaming is the incredible thing. The power of social media should never be underestimated.

    It could literally get you killed.

    It would only take one nutter who decides he is a legitimate target and Palmer is in even more serious trouble.

  43. zoidlord

    Since we know that Abbott doesn’t understand economies, his reassurances are no more than wind through his brain.

  45. Bronnie hasn’t let Australia down, she has insulted us by misusing an office of trust and possibly broken the law. She has betrayed us and should go for Parliament entirely and face a prosecution which like slippers may or may not be successful.

    She has let herself down, gently of course and into the comfy chair of a limo, first class seat or chopper.

  48. In England, they had fans throwing bananas at black players, racist chants and racist signs. Then the FA got tough, as well as introducing a lot of positive programs to manage crowd behaviour and supporter behaviour. The code was being hijacked by racists and neo-nazi gangs. They set about wresting their code back for the real supporters.

    If the AFL does not want to end up there they need to pick up the phone.

    As an aside in FIFA rules would see Goodes yellow carded or red carded for the spear-throwing action. It is two way street, players cannot ‘incite the crowd’, either.

  49. [The AFL should get tough and do to clubs with boo-ing fans that which the Football Association (FA) did to clubs with fans who did that]

    I was at many FA games and at every single one there was a lot of booing so you are badly misrepresenting something in that post.

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