BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The government’s position weakens further in the latest weekly poll aggregate reading, as two new polls find a surge in support for the Greens.

The two-party preferred reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has ticked 0.5% in Labor’s favour for the second week in the row, on the back of a solid improvement for them in the latest fortnightly Morgan result, and a smaller shift on the weekly Essential Research numbers. In fact, the outstanding feature of both polls was the best result in years for the Greens, such that both major parties are little changed on the primary vote, and Labor’s two-party preferred improvement is received second-hand as preferences. Labor is back in majority government territory on the seat projection, thanks to single-seat gains in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania.

There is also a new set of leadership ratings courtesy of last week’s small-sample Morgan phone poll, which I now see I neglected to link to, but you can read all about here and here. The BludgerTrack tables show how the results have changed since “last week”, but since the poll was conducted last Monday to Wednesday, it might be better understood as a revised reading of the previous result than a current state of play. In particular, if the Labor national conference made any change to Bill Shorten’s position for better or worse, this poll will not have captured it. In any case, the result adds incrementally to the headlong plunges of both leaders on net approval, but doesn’t make much difference to preferred prime minister.

Otherwise:

• Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports that a preselection challenge against Teresa Gambaro, the LNP member for the federal seat of Brisbane, has been called off after the intervention of Tony Abbott – which would seem to be rather big of him, as Gambaro had been one of his most vocal critics. The putative challenger was Trevor Evans, chief executive of the National Retail Association and chief-of-staff and campaign director to Peter Dutton during 2010, who was said by an LNP source quoted by Atfield to have “had the numbers”. Not only has Evans been persuaded not to run, he will also serve as Gambaro’s campaign manager.

• The winner of a Tasmanian Greens vote to choose a Senate successor to Christine Milne will be announced today, and the Launceston Examiner for one deems that the party’s former state leader, Nick McKim, is “heavily favoured” to emerge the winner from a field of about ten. Milne has not yet set a date for her departure, but in the final week of the last parliamentary sitting she gave what she said was to be her final Senate speech, so presumably it will be soon. The Greens preselection process has been covered in very great detail by local observer Kevin Bonham.

• Two dubious claims of internal polling to relate, if only because I didn’t want the above items to look lonely. Speaking on Sky News earlier this month, Victorian Liberal Party state president Michael Kroger claimed that “current polling” had support for Jacqui Lambie in Tasmania in the low twenties. The CFMEU also claims polling it has conducted finds a “Nick Xenophon-backed candidate” in Christopher Pyne’s Adelaide seat of Sturt would poll 38% of the primary vote, compared with 30.8% for Pyne and 17.4% for Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

968 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 20
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  1. Actually TBA @785 has a point. Labor cannot force Bronwyn out of the Speaker’s chair if Abbott is determined to keep her there. Whatever action is taken, the Opposition will be doing it to maintain the dignity of the House and ensuring that it, its processes and presiding officers continue to be worthy of respect. It would be counterproductive to do anything like detracts from this, like wearing helicopter caps or whatever.

  2. Wiht all of this Choppergate stuff, the bit that STILL rankles me the most is her patronizing, plonking lecture on live TV to Gillian Triggs, on the duties of statutory office holders.

    That, coming from Chopper, was one the most hypocritical things I have ever witnessed.

    Besides Peter Slipper, I think Triggs would have the biggest smile on her face right now.

    Bishop has managed to piss-off just about everybody: the media, the Opposition, the Public Service, her constiuents, the Australian people in general and now even her own party.

    Essentially she is refusing to resign because she believes that she is somehow above mortal voters and is entitled to do whatever she wants to do. Bugger the voters if they want to know what she’s been up to. That’s none of their business.

    When you think about it, it’s utterly shocking that Chopper got anywhere at all in government, much less achieved such high office. She really does not get it.

  3. [“@annajhenderson: Labor’s @Tony_Burke says if Bronwyn Bishop is still Speaker “Any level of cooperation that the government ordinarily relies on is gone””]

    Of course. They are in a virtual no lose position. No one thinks Bishop should be there. Even the rusted ons that support her only do because they want to deny Labor the scalp.

    So long as Labor simply go through the processes they can’t really be made to look like they’re spoiling. Bishop’s presence in the chair is the only issue. Until she’s gone the government will pretty much grind to a halt and all the blame for that will fall on them.

  7. 802
    Bushfire Bill

    She has always taken herself to be at least a Duchess if not an Empress. Naturally, such grandeur is not to be denied any pleasure nor any gratification. These are hers as if by right.

    Oh well, not very deep down, we’re all republicans these days. There is no aristocracy. She may have pretensions, but that is all she has. She has no more right to plunder the common purse than any of us. She’s just greed with a loud mouth.

  8. The other thing is that if Bronnie does survive as Speaker, her performance in the chair will be under scrutiny by th emedia like never before.
    Every mistake, every undeserved 94a and every deliberate protection of Abbott and co will be seen as an indictment on both her and the government.

    Too delicious.

  11. Does this mean BBishop is doomed. 😀

    [Stephen Spencer
    Stephen Spencer – ‏@sspencer_63

    “The Prime Minister and I are 100% behind Bronwyn Bishop”. Christoper Pyne, Today show, 31 July 2015.
    7:56 PM – 30 Jul 2015]

  12. “The Prime Minister and I are 100% behind Bronwyn Bishop”.

    And ready to push her out of the chopper!

  13. IMO Abbott didn’t fly economy to Europe because ‘that’s what people do’. He flew economy because he’s never willing to spend a cent out of his own pocket and this holiday wasn’t claimable.

  15. Myriam Robin of Crikey on that Fairfax beat-up that’s now last fortnight’s PB fish wrapper:

    [In the two weeks leading up to yesterday’s apology, the outlet that has run the hardest and most consistently on the scandal has been Sydney’s Daily Telegraph, according to a breakdown of articles mentioning Bishop provided to Crikey by media monitoring company iSentia. In broadcast, the commercial TV networks have run far more stories on Bishop in their news bulletins in the past two weeks than the ABC and SBS have. On radio, populist stations 2UE and 2GB have mentioned Bishop more than any others by a significant margin.

    Throughout the media, coverage of Bishop in the past two weeks has been unyielding and pervasive. In the week after the story broke, the Speaker had more mentions across the media than both the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader, with 32,785 total mentions across all media (including syndication) in the week to July 22. The last time the Prime Minister was kicked off first place was in budget week, when Treasurer Joe Hockey had more mentions.]

    Paywalled: http://www.crikey.com.au/?p=507414

  16. This is a point that shouldnt be overlooked

    Peter van Onselen
    Peter van Onselen – Verified account ‏@vanOnselenP

    And let’s be clear, it looks like the Speaker has probably made up ‘confidential sources’ to try and cover her entitlements (mis)use.
    6:35 PM – 30 Jul 2015

  17. vic

    [Peter van Onselen – Verified account ‏@vanOnselenP

    And let’s be clear, it looks like the Speaker has probably made up ‘confidential sources’ to try and cover her entitlements (mis)use.]

    Yep. Bronnie should put up the proof.

    Any politician that doesn’t have meeting diaries that have details of who, when and where they met with people and about what would be nuts.

  19. CTar1 817

    I suppose the ‘clever’ ones like Obeid would have a public and a private version. But they all should.

  20. lizzie 813

    “IMO Abbott didn’t fly economy to Europe because ‘that’s what people do’. He flew economy because he’s never willing to spend a cent out of his own pocket and this holiday wasn’t claimable.”

    He was probably expecting (and received?) a free upgrade to Business or First Class.

  21. [Lateline
    Lateline – Verified account ‏@Lateline

    Stan Grant joins #Lateline tonight to discuss @adamroy37 #Goodes #AFL
    Embedded image
    8:08 PM – 30 Jul 2015]

  22. [Peter van Onselen
    Peter van Onselen – Verified account ‏@vanOnselenP

    And let’s be clear, it looks like the Speaker has probably made up ‘confidential sources’ to try and cover her entitlements (mis)use.
    6:35 PM – 30 Jul 2015]

    Does anyone NOT think she’s just making it up?

  26. I’m particularöy enjoying the way that everything that has been said publicly for the past 15 years has been captured on the internet for posterity…….& to shame hypocrites.

  29. [Throughout the media, coverage of Bishop in the past two weeks has been unyielding and pervasive. In the week after the story broke, the Speaker had more mentions across the media than both the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader, with 32,785 total mentions across all media (including syndication) in the week to July 22. ]

    In light of that, am even more curious to know how many Reachtel’d folk were unaware of the issue.

  30. [“IMO Abbott didn’t fly economy to Europe because ‘that’s what people do’. He flew economy because he’s never willing to spend a cent out of his own pocket and this holiday wasn’t claimable.”
    ]

    I recall this episode, where Abbott flew to a Swiss holiday in economy. Why so?

    Because it was plastered in the Daily TurdBurgler, who remarkably knew all the intimate details of Abbott “insisting” he go cattle class. It’s almost as if he wanted this slumming it with the people meme to emerge?

    What I actually thought was despite my dislike of the man, it is completely inappropriate for a national leader with close personal protection to slum with plebs so he can grandstand in the TurdBurgler. And he brought this up today in his “interview” with the Brookvale Oval announcer on 2SM – what a regular guy is our Tones.

  31. Took out John Ralston Saul’s (1995) book “The Doubters’ Companion” This should be more widely known!!!

    Nearly five pages on “Debt, Unsustainable Levels of”.

    Every sentence is worth quoting, starting “National debt are treated toddies if they were unforgiving gods with the power to control, alter, and, if necessary, destroy a country.”
    And
    “There is no example of a nation becoming rich by paying its debts.” And much more!

    Why is Cassandra still disbelieved?

  32. Autobiography by Bronwyn Bishop

    ‘I Did It My Way: My Contribution to Australia’s Debt and Deficit Disaster.’

  33. It’s surprising that Abbott didn’t give a little political speech to the other captive passengers in economy just so he could claim the trip on expenses.

  36. I think Abbott’s travel expenses had recently come under some deserved attention and that’s why he travelled economy. It also somehow leaked out that he didn’t upgrade to business. I did think at the time that it was pretty unfair on his body guards (assuming they accompanied him). I would have thought it would be much easier to provide close protection to someone in business class than someone in economy.

  37. So which one is worse, Abbott or Bishop. When Abbott claims entitlements he makes sure that he has something to justify the claim. A presser at a hospital the morning after a fundraiser, or a presser at the end of a bike ride. He knows that what he is doing is adding an event of no consequence so he can claim the entitlements. When Bishop claims entitlements it is in the form – attended an event at which the Speaker of the House of Representatives was present. Or – Attended an event at which the chair of the committee for Whatever it was, was present.

  40. Tony Wright tears Abbott a strip.
    [“Yes, we’re a robust people and I guess politicians typically get booed at the footy but Adam Goodes is a good bloke and he’s a great player and I hope he’ll get treated with respect and civility.”

    You could study this statement all day and you wouldn’t find a breath of serious leadership or statesmanship in it. It is wobbly motherhood. Is there anyone we might hope doesn’t get treated with civility and respect?

    …When leadership concerning a nation’s heart comes from a casino boss and state premiers, the question of a prime minister’s ability to inspire has to be asked.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/adam-goodes-and-racism-a-pms-statesmanship-is-left-behind-by-premiers-and-a-casino-boss-20150731-gior3m.html#ixzz3hRYcGv8H

  41. Here’s hoping we get voting intention as well:

    7 News Sydney @7NewsSydney
    7 News at 6pm: Should Bronwyn Bishop resign? @Riley7News has the results of the Exclusive 7 News Reachtel poll. pic.twitter.com/7ufitA3Kst

  42. WWP at 723:
    [I accept 290% that there was an issue that needed to be addressed with and for Adam. I accept the AFL should have done more sooner. I don’t think there have been any winners from this week. I think we are in a worse place than this time last week.]

    I don’t. This week has been cathartic in the same way the social explosion created by Michael Long outing Damien Monkhurst contributed to a very substantial movement forward for indigenous rights.

    Before Michael Long outed Monkey (his non-racist nickname TBA) it was generally accepted that “what was said on the field, stayed on the field”. The problem with this “courageous” call was that indigenous footballers were readily and continuously targeted with racial abuse which was seen as a very effective way of reducing their output.

    After Long outed Monkey there was a bro-ha-ha that makes the current issue seem relatively minor. Eventually the “PC” crowd won and footballers received specific training to understand why racial abuse on the footy field was wrong. Monkey himself was required to receive it.

    Funnily enough as a result of the training (indoctrination?) Monkey received he has become an enthusiastic apostle for racial tolerance. He features prominently on the annual Long Marches and frequently speaks to young people over the necessity for cultural sensitivity if our society is to be socially inclusive.

    I see the current beat-up as being a very healthy growing pain. In time we will all learn to celebrate the Adam Goodes “war dance” as a reminder of how far we have come.

    Of course we will still have much further to go. And TBA will, no doubt, be dragging the chain.

  43. Re the rules on what types of travel politicians should/should not be allowed to spend taxpayers’ money on.

    There’s a lot of dust being thrown up by some politicians and journalists about this. Some of it is motivated by the tiresome old “politicians aren’t to be trusted” meme, and some of it is perhaps about trying to justify the unjustifiable.

    Nevertheless, I think the rules are pretty clear. You can only claim for travel done to pursue “official business”. As I understand it, the Department of Finance (and its predecessors in this role) have always been pretty lenient in regard to how they interpret what constitutes “official business”.

    Eg, An air ticket to the Gold Coast for a few official meetings and a press conference prior to spending a weekend on the beach is ok, as long as the accommodation over the weekend is paid for privately.

    The PM, the LOTO, Ministers (and Minister-equivalents such as the Speaker) and Shadow Ministers get far more lenient treatment than backbenchers, due to their being more readily being able to put forward legitimate reasons for needing to travel to parts of Australia a long way from Canberra or their electorates. Hence, most Ministers would not face the problem that the recently-deceased Don Randall had in justifying trips to Cairns, given that his electorate was in WA.

    Travel for party political purposes is generally a complete no-no, although annual party conferences and a few other instances are deemed ok, due to parliamentarians being deemed to have an official role at such events.

    Where the trouble begins is when backbenchers, or sometimes opposition spokespeople who can’t come up with a good explanation, want to go to a particular place to attend something like a wedding, party fundraiser or simply to have themselves a good time, without the hassle of having to work out an itinerary of work-related events. A one-time favourite excuse was the need to go somewhere to collect information in the individual’s role on some parliamentary committee (given that just about all parliamentarians are a member of one or more such committees).

    “Fact-finding” in general has become a much less popular justification for overseas travel since the debacle of Bob Woods, the one-time Parliamentary Secretary for Health, who had to resign after it was revealed that he was accompanied on a rather jolly-sounding “fact-finding” mission to Europe to study wine and cheese by a staffer named Roxanne who later told 60 Minutes that her role involved providing rather more to him than mere advice (which, if true, was an especially poor career move on his part given that his father-in-law was a senior Liberal Party powerbroker!).

    Fact-finding for parliamentary committees is now, as I understand it, not accepted as a justification without a clear instruction in advance from the said parliamentary committee. And, in this case, the whole committee normally travels together.

    I think these rules, even if they are open to a bit of bending, are far clearer than many in the media are choosing to argue.

    Just because some politicians don’t obey them doesn’t mean that the rules are badly-defined. Lots of people run red lights, but I don’t think that means that this means that there is significant ambiguity about whether or not you are allowed to drive through a red light!!

    So I’m far from convinced that the rules as they stand have anything much wrong with them. I’ll guess we’ll be able to judge this better when we find out the outcome of the Department of Finance investigations.

  44. Kersenerm. Köszönöm

    right, I will admit, apart from ordering beer, that is the full extent of my grasp of the crazy Hungarian language.

  46. I like the way the Goodes thing is turning out. People of all persuasions are coming out in support of him. Its time to put all the reclaimers/racists/rednecks back in their box for a while and say to the Joneses/Warnes/Bolts and TBA that you are in the minority and are utterly wrong!

  47. With regards to the Adam Goodes issue, far too late the AFL and clubs are attempting to do something. Never mind the ‘professional’ commentators on sports radio 🙁

    I am a Western Bulldogs member who has gone to matches sporadically, but held a membership for decades. My cousin is in the cheersquad (stifle the guffaws, please). I admit ot being dismayed at her attitude that Goodes “had brought it upon himself” beginning with his reaction to being racially abused by a young girl, which many felt (his) was an over-the-top, bullying reaction.

    I say I was surprised because Goodes’s brother, Brett, plays for us. She could not see the issue any deeper than it was ‘her right’ to boo.

    I also tried to raise the issue with fans at a large sporting blog/website (BigFooty), raising the issue at the club’s separate page because of (Ithought) the relevance of his brother playing for us.

    I was shocked at the reaction. In summary, the attitude is/was “We’ll boo because it is our right, and notbody is going to tell us not to”.

    The AFL, and wider society, has got some really, really, big problems. This could get uglier.

  48. I think I can give ‘Dave’ a pass on using the word ‘swarm’.

    The French Police say around 2,500 migrants charged the Chunnel entrance.

  49. [William Bowe
    Posted Friday, July 31, 2015 at 3:22 pm | PERMALINK
    Here’s hoping we get voting intention as well:

    7 News Sydney @7NewsSydney
    7 News at 6pm: Should Bronwyn Bishop resign? @Riley7News has the results of the Exclusive 7 News Reachtel poll. pic.twitter.com/7ufitA3Kst]

    I think Ch7 news has generally released all results from its Reachtel polls at the same time. However in this case voting intention would be secondary to the resignation question and might be covered quickly although Ch7 tends to display clear tables or graphs for the results.

  50. [….the week after the story broke, the Speaker had more mentions across the media than both the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader]
    A Peter Slipper grade achievement by Bronwyn.

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