James J in comments relates that the latest Newspoll result has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, up from 52-48 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up two) and 12% for the Greens (down one). However, Bill Shorten’s personal ratings have slumped again, with approval down one to 27% and disapproval up five to 59%, while Tony Abbott’s are unchanged at 33% and 60%. Abbott has also opened up a 39-36 lead as preferred prime minister, after a tied 39-39 result last time.
This is the second Newspoll for The Australian by Galaxy Research, using a combination of automated phone and online polling. It was conducted from Friday to Sunday, with a sample of 1638. Full tables from The Australian here.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Absolutely no change on voting intention in Essential Research this week, which has Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor and 11% for the Greens. The poll also finds 48% expect the current parliament will run its full term, compared with 25% who expect an early election. Further questions find a strong view in favour of renewable energy over coal, and a belief that the government is excessively favouring the latter. Fifty per cent of respondents were of the view that the government should prioritise renewables over coal versus on 6% for the other way around, with 28% opting that both should be treated equally. When asked an equivalent question about the actual position of the government, the respective results were 12%, 49% and 13%. Respondents also came down heavily in favour of gun control, with only 6% deeming current laws too strong and 45% rating them not strong enough, with 40% opting for “about right”.
I suspect you are right on that guytar. we will see i guess.
Too much to hope for. Whatever the aLP do in Govt the Libs will not let got of BOATS!!! BOO!! hysteria without a fight.
And to those who say Labor is totally committed to this Abbot policy or that… think about it.
There is virtually nothing that Labor has voted for in the House that can’t be reversed on Day #1 of a Labor government.
The things that matter Labor ARE opposing.
But I think so many of you would rather believe that “all politicians are as bad as each other.”
Join the bogans in the Western Suburbs you so detest. That’s EXACTLY what they want you to think, dummies.
@ guytaur, 1149
The “regional solution” has been a buzzword banded around for years and years – it’s just as much a fantasy now as it’s ever been.
@BB/1145
So much negative in this country, I would rather Labor fight for jobs in this country rather than trying to be a wannabe light liberal.
@ BB, 1152
And why support it in the first place? Are you suggesting Labor would give the impression that it supports a policy going into an election and then completely abandon it after winning?
And you say all politicians aren’t as bad as one another. Tsk tsk.
BB
Exactly. Exhibit A Climate Change policies.
And given the Liberals want to play politics with the issue; your solution is?
Seems like Labor is also going to support National Security = http://delimiter.com.au/2015/07/22/labor-dances-around-telco-national-security-support/
Arrnea
Hold your horses until you get over the hill. Let’s win an election first. Then lobby the Federal Labor gov’t on boat turnbacks. You will get further than lobbying a returned Coalition gov’t.
AS
If Kevin Rudd had won the election I think we would have regional solution by now.
Its years away because of all the damage done that has to be repaired in the region before other countries will agree to measures for genuine regional processing.
Unfortunately when it comes to AS, being a democratic party in a nominally democratic country, means that Labor has to acknowledge that it may well have what seems a more morally sound policy but that punters will not buy it.
It must be remembered that detention of AS was introduced, as I seem to remember, during Keating’s time.
True to say Rudd eased up on the AS issue only to see what seemed to be a large number of boats set sail from Indonesia with some coming to grief with loss of life on Christmas Island.
What a curse Christmas Island has turned out to be and it is a shame we can’t sell it to the Indons.
Also Rudd brought in the “Nobody coming in boat will settle here” which has been augmented by Abbott’s tow back/send back/refloat policy.
Currently the majority of the Oz electorate seem willing to submerge their compassionate side under a general fear of being swamped by loads and loads of fortune seekers on very small boats.
While the LNP can and will play the race/fear/insecurity/be tough card what option does Labor have when the this is what the majority of the electorate wants?
Short of throwing the asylum seekers into the sea, what could possibly be further to the right than what we have now?
@frednk/1157
They already have, see their response to Climate Change?
No doubt they be preparing a response to say “why didn’t you support us earlier”.
@ frednk, 1157
Let them fly here on commercial airlines for fuck’s sake. Stop the boats permanently by making them unnecessary.
@ Puff, 1159
Really struggling to see the difference on this issue. Both parties seem to want to kowtow to xenophobes for whom the issue has never been the boats and drownings, but rather the boat people. The drownings at sea were just a convenient cloak of humanity of their inhumane policies.
@Darn/1162
FACT: Asylum Seekers are still dying at sea.
Poverty, War, and other related issues are the reasons for Asylum Seekers exist in the first place, stop the issues at the source of the problem before it goes overboard.
Prevention policies almost always work when properly implemented.
AS
The big difference between Labor and the LNP on turn backs is the transparency.
To change the mind of people on the efficacy and cruelty of the policy it only takes for people to see it. Just like when we saw the drownings off Christmas Island if we see what is happening people will react
For goodness sake – regarding anything but especially the AS issue – I don’t agree the ALP are snow white/squeaky clean/insert absurd superlative here or even playing smart politics. I do welcome optimism but seriously doubt the alp would reverse things once in power. Such despair and I aint alone
@ guytaur, 1166
That’s based on the supposition that Labor will engage in such a process with transparency as a priority now that the Abbott government have shown how politically effective secrecy can be on the issue.
I’ve seen nothing to suggest that that is more than mere supposition.
BB well said
Is it unfair to think a PM like Abbott would be more likely to provoke more war leading to more refugees?
mikehilliard
Here’s the thing about that . For a few years I worked in the building industry with hard core ‘Labor’ base , CFMEU ,AWU,ETU and even the BLF . From that experience I knew Johnny Howard had Labor totally fwacked when it came to AS. The harder they “Stick it up ’em” the better was the attitude.
AS
Labor have promised transparencey. What is more the left may not win in stopping turn backs but they will be likely to win on the transparency and human rights conditions.
Mr Shorten intimated that such concerns were his too. Thats why I think its not just supposition.
Seeing that 50% renewables by 2030 target was actually exciting.
Morality is a tough gig.
I wonder what Churchill felt when he sent the Royal Navy to destroy the French fleet in North Africa to stop the Germans getting their hands on these ships. I gather some hundreds of French sailors were killed.
Or, what is the morality of the Enigma secret when it was known some cities would be destroyed because to save them would have alerted the Germans to the fact that the codes were in the hands of the allies?
I think a parallel can be drawn with Labor and AS.
Thank you Peter Garrett. 😉
Arrnea Stormbringer@1128
Then do it.
Labor is a party of government. Go join a protest movement and feel good while Abbott reigns.
@ guytaur, 1171
I’ve not seen anything (in the ABC report I read) to suggest Shorten has made transparency a priority in this policy. Feel free to provide a source that says otherwise.
Sounds good but how?
@ Tricot, 1173
If you think lives are pieces on some chessboard to be taken and sacrificed, you’re a monster.
@ bemused, 1175
The comment above applies to you also.
The asylum seeker question is actually pretty simple.
The main issue is not Labor or LNP, it is what will promote the welfare of asylum seekers. Note that in the rest of this post I have omitted all mention of particular parties or personalities.
Since this is a polling website, it is quite pertinent to point out that 70% of Australian voters support turnback. It is only a short logical hop from that to infer that a party promising not to turn back boats will not be elected to government. The result of that will be the current policies with all their depredations will continue.
The only way to begin to ameliorate those policies is to first be elected to government. How things develop from that is a book yet to be written.
The history of these policies is strictly speaking irrelevant – we have to deal with the situation as it is now, not as we would wish it to be. I along with many others wish we were in a different place, but we’re not.
Labor has consistently urged for transparency.
AS
You think the Labor conference will not insist on transparency. You think a Labor conference will be ok with Dr’s others facing jail terms for reporting things detrimental to patients health?
This is the case for the likes of zoomster by the way just see today’s NPC featuring AMA President Owler.
Arrnea Stormbringer@1146
I can see your logic. Having Abbott as PM really helps a lot doesn’t it?
Now remind me who the sociopath is?
Marles’ article says they will run the asylum camps more humanely and will process claims more quickly but they won’t take them after they have been processed.
He also says Rudd took a “turn back the boats” policy to the 2007 election.
Tricot@1173
I don’t want to offend but aren’t you talking about the potential invasion of a country from a highly mechanised war machine just some klicks off your coastline. Not a few unfortunates in leaky boats.
Just saying.
@ ajm, 1179
If stopping the asylum seeker “invasion” is so much of a primary issue to Australian voters that it’ll stop them turfing out an Abbott government that has attacked jobs, the disabled, the elderly, health, education and the environment with reckless abandon ever since it came to office, then the Australian people deserve an Abbott government re-elected.
you could wait until the ALP National Conference to see what the policy will actually be.
The Cone of Silence can work both ways. Non-turnbacks cannot be reported either.
@ guytaur, 1181
At this point, I don’t know what to think the Labor conference will do – but it’s probably Labor’s last chance to convince me not to quit the party in disgust.
@ bemused, 1182
And I can see yours – as long as Labor is elected, it doesn’t matter who Labor has to send to their deaths. If gassing the unemployed was supported by 70% of the voters, I bet you’d support that too.
I think he’s wrong there, which is why Rudd got himself into trouble over the OV.
Without the slightest shadow of a doubt.
I believe you think you’re pretty savvy, but your as naive as a puppy AS.
@ BB, 1189
You can’t claim that Labor would lie in that manner to get into government and then at the same time claim that politicians aren’t all as bad as one another.
Pick one, but you can’t have your cake and eat it too.
If Labor does support turnback they will also support secrecy. The whole kit and caboodle. They will have no choice.
What a despicable nation we have become!!!!!!
The well known song “shelter” is now a parody.
Arrnea Stormbringer@1178
Less harm will occur once Abbott is gone.
It is a simple fact that apparently eludes you in your pursuit of ‘feel good’ politics. Go join the Greens.
AS
It’s not the Australian voters I’m concerned about, it’s the asylum seekers – you are obviously happy to have them as collateral damage in the cause of teaching Australian voters a lesson. Well, good luck to you, but I think that is a profoundly immoral path to take.
Boat turnbacks are mass murder. Indefinite detention is torture.
We are a nation that supports our Government murdering and torturing people who have committed no crime other than living in a country where they face persecution – and for such a country’s people (and the politicians who pander to it), I have nothing but contempt.
maybe the Libs will position themselves to the left of Labor on AS and win all those votes that were floating around on PB a couple of years ago
fess
This is the relevant bit from Marles.
mikehilliard@1184
You need to check your Atlas. North Africa and the Mediterranean are a long way from the UK.
There is no way – NO WAY – that any party going to an election in the near future could EVER be elected on a “Free The Refugees” campaign issue.
It’ll just never happen. Any party that advocates it will be crushed. Not so much because the public is against it (although they may be) but more because it’s one of those done-and-dusted issues that the public – or the media – will not tolerate being resurrected.
You may as well tie one leg behind your back and still try to run a 4-Minute Mile. Just ain’t gonna happen.
Why Labor should be prepared to die in a ditch over refugees, when there are so many other issues FAR more important- the environment, jobs, infrastructure, communications modernization, national and private debt, health, revenue, education and so on – is beyond me.
Andrea Whatsername would rather have another three years of Abbott than dilute his/her purity on a backwoods issue that has been settled years ago, howsoever wrong that settlement was.
There just isn’t enough time to fight every battle, Andrea. You can’t win all of them, or even gather together the resources to do so. the important thing is to WIN THE WAR.
And you do that by picking your battles, protecting your resources and by not putting your head over the parapet with a “Shoot Me” sign around your neck.
dtt
Why do you say that? What evidence is there that they will continue with the secrecy, apart from some sort of “feeling” you might have about it?
@ ajm, 1193
I’m not the one who suggested that Labor should turn back boats without the secrecy just to prove the point to Australian voters that it costs lives.
A “choice” between two parties who both agree that the Government should effectively murder people on the high seas is not a choice at all.